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Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Florida Primaries Open Thread

Posted by DavidNYC

Several contested primaries are afoot tonight in Florida, on both sides of the aisle. We've got Gov for both parties, plus a number of House contests. Even poor Kathy Harris might actually win an election this year, if she managed to beat the no-names running against her tonight.

Full results are available here. Got any races in the Sunshine State that you're following?

Posted at 09:43 PM in 2006 Elections, Florida | Technorati

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Comments

Harris has won the GOP nomination - so Nelson can drink champagne.

The govs race looks very close to me. Davis built up big margins in Tampa where his CD is from, but it might not be enough as Broward and Palm are mostly out. We will see if the US Sugar ads hurt Davis in the African American community. If they did Smith may still win.

BTW - this site is from the Ap and is much faster with results:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2006/by_state/FL_Page_0905.html?SITE=FLPETELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Posted by: fladem at September 5, 2006 10:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I haven't really been following the FL-Gov Dem primary (or the GOP one, to be honest). FlaDem, what's your take on the whole race?

Posted by: DavidNYC at September 5, 2006 11:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm glad Christine Jennings won. Jennings can win this. Her staff are fighters and she appeals to the district better than Jan. FL-13 is purple leaning red. Voters rejected Jan several times in a row. Fence-sitters who would vote dem are more likely to vote for a new dem than for one they voted against several times in a row.

Posted by: dereau at September 5, 2006 11:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This is what I think of my home state Primary I've posted this in other areas (I wrote this fast so I apologize for typos but I am tired).

Davis win the Dem. Nod for Governor while Republicans pick Charlie Crist. Davis is a Congressman from the Tampa area while Crist is the current Attorney General. The race is seen as "Lean Republican" Crist has a small lead in polls (usually around 4-7 points.) because of early ads and higher name ID. But this is a race we can win Davis has the Center Left Bob Graham/Nelson kind of record that elects Dems. statewide here. In the Senate race Harris wins the GOP Nod and Nelson just won the general. In Floridas 8th Democrats picked Charlie Stuart to take on Incumbent Congressman Ric Keller. Stuart in my mind was the best choice for the Democrats and I hope he can prevail in November. In the 13th it's going to be Buchanan (R) and Jennings (D). Buchanan will have the advantage because of the Republican edge in this district and because of COH advantage. This is Kathrine Harris's district the race is winnable. The 15th (my home district) we nominated Dr. Bob Bowman a Combat veteran and a kickass guy I honestly think he should be on the netroots list he is so great i'm gonna work my ass off for him. The Republican is incumbent Dave Weldon who has broken term limit pledges taken money from Jack Abramoff and so on. The 22nd it's Congressman Clay Shaw (R) agenst State Senator Ron Klein (D) Klein is great and he gives us one of our best pickup chances of this year. Finally in the 24th Clint Curtis won the Democratic Nomination to take on Congressman Tom Feeney I haven't been following this race very much (I should since I live like 5 blocks from the district line) but my guess is Feeney is favored. Well thats my incredible wrap up of the Florida results anything you all want to add to it?

Posted by: D in FL. at September 6, 2006 12:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

D in FL, did John Kennedy actually campaign, or did Bowman only recieve about 56% against him out of some lack of luck?

As for Feeney/Curtis, Feeney is pretty much heavily favored. Feeney also was lucky that Michaud disappeared off the face of the earth, so Feeney could take on the guy with no money who claims that Feeney rigs elections.

Posted by: RBH at September 6, 2006 09:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

FL-08: Charlie Stuart (D) v. Rep. Ric Keller (R)

Stuart has spent $358826 and he has $214772 on hand.
Keller has spent $304078 and he has $1,261,831 on hand.

FL-09: Phyllis Busansky (D) v. Gus Bilirakis (R)

Busansky has spent $286299 and she has $531228 on hand.
Bilirakis has spent $613327 and he has $1,189,620 on hand.

FL-13: Christine Jennings (D) v. Vern Buchanan (R)

Jennings has spent $590427 and she has $283029 on hand.
Buchanan has spent $2,362,362 and he has $1,439,111 on hand.

Meanwhile here's a dark horse race:

Tim Mahoney (D) has spent $799292 and he has $343755 on hand.
Mark Foley (R) has spent $819313 and he has $2,787,281 on hand.

Posted by: RBH at September 6, 2006 09:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

A couple of observations:
1. GOP turnout was higher than Dem turnout by about 15% (977k vs 854k).
2. Davis won by winning his CD by about 25K, and running roughly even everywhere else. This is the classic way House Members win when they run statewide.
3. The story of US Sugar's role in this race is beyond strange, and worthy of a John Grisham novel. US Sugar spent 2 million attacking Davis. Why? Because Davis would be tougher on protecting the everglades. US Sugar always supports Repugs - and their intervention in this race I think backfired in the end to Davis's benefit.
4. Two races suggest the religious right's control of the GOP is not absolute. Crist does not oppose civil unions, and Randall Terry failed in his attempt to win a State Senate seat. I think this is good news for McCain and Guiliani.

Posted by: fladem at September 6, 2006 12:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

fladem, the sugar industry generally supports Democrats because of opposition to Republican-sponsored free trade agreements that would open the closed US sugar market to foreign competition. Any insight as to why US Sugar favors Republicans?

Posted by: Mark at September 6, 2006 01:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment