Swing State Project

« Weekly Open Thread: School Daze Edition | Main | DCCC Expands Red to Blue Program, Creates "Emerging Races" List »

Sunday, September 17, 2006

HI-Sen: Akaka Leading Case by 13

Posted by James L.

The Honolulu Advertiser has a new poll out showing incumbent Democratic Senator Daniel K. Akaka leading his Liberesque conservative Democrat primary opponent, Rep. Ed Case, by a pretty comfortable margin over a week a way from the Sept. 23 election:

Daniel Akaka (D-Inc.): 51
Ed Case (D): 38
Undecided: 11
MoE: ±4%

Depending on how those undecideds will break, Akaka is looking pretty good on the 23rd. Thank God.

Posted at 01:55 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2590

Comments

Ditto on the good news, he should have gone after Lingle instead, Commuting to and living in D.C. versus Hawaii, oh well, to each his own.
Maui County early voting reaps 1,128 voters:
http://www.mauinews.com/story.aspx?id=23339

Posted by: Predictor at September 17, 2006 02:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Since when does anyone campaign against a politician being too old?

I mean -- thats a feasible strategy?
Senator Strom Thurmond was like 100 during his term with thr senate...
Hes only like 82... campaigning on age... what a horrible strategy.

Posted by: MrMacMan at September 17, 2006 06:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It can work if you've got a Mongiardo v. Bunning type of dynamic going on. That is, the guy's advanced age has to be clearly affecting their personality/capabilities. Bunning was clearly senile, which is why he almost lost an election that never should have been anywhere near close.

We may see a bit of the same dynamic with Tester v. Burns this fall. Burns has been acting pretty weird all summer long.

But yeah, Akaka isn't in the same ballpark as Burns or Bunning--he's just as sharp as he's ever been, and the dude looks pretty healthy, too.

Posted by: James L. at September 17, 2006 08:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well put, James. And let's hope Bob Byrd doesn't have any senior moments between now and election day, either!

Posted by: The Caped Composer at September 18, 2006 08:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I gotta tell you, I was in the chambers of congress listening to Sen. Byrd last year -- hes a fireball.

I mean he has to look at his printed notes in big font, but he knows what hes talking about and is very intellegent even in his age.

-- MrMacMan

Posted by: MrMacMan at September 18, 2006 11:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wouldn't be so happy, I bet Case uses this run to help in a primary against abrecombie when a senat seat opens. Remember he lost GOV primary and then won the seat.

Posted by: rtaycher1987 at September 18, 2006 11:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Aloha!
The Honolulu Advertiser is reporting a record number of Absentee Ballots received, 94,000 compared with 80,000 in 2004. Republicans can vote in the Dem Primary. Both these factors would seem to favor Case, and give me some angst. Otherwise, I'd be more comfortable predicting an Akaka win, as I'm hoping for. This may be closer than expected but I'll still go with Akaka.
In HI-02's crap shoot in the 10 candidate Dem Primary: former LG Mazie Hirono seems likes the operative favorite as much as I'd wish though that progressive State Rep Brian Schatz could pull out a win.
On the gopee side, Ex State Rep & former House Minority Leader & Royal Prince Quentin Kawananakoa would seem like the favorite, though his past history regarding a cocaine bust (in 89) and untimely dropping out of a race (98) against Neil Abercrombie-D, could see him lose to State Sen Bob Hogue.
Whatever the end results both HI-Sen & HI-02 should be considered "Safe Dem" in Nov. Here's a link to the State site for Election Results: http://www.hawaii.gov/elections/results/

Posted by: Predictor at September 23, 2006 03:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment