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Saturday, September 23, 2006

HI-Sen, HI-02 Primary Results Open Thread (Akaka Wins!)

Posted by James L.

It's primary day in Hawaii today. I'm not sure when results will be posted, but it looks like the polls will close around midnight eastern, and presumably results will be posted at the Hawaii Office of Elections website (thanks, Predictor).

I'm weirdly nervous about Akaka-Case given the anti-incumbent sentiment this year (Lieberman, Schwarz, McKinney, Wynn, & Chafee all knocked off or having received close calls) but hopefully Daniel K. will pull through today. I'd be seriously depressed if we'd have to deal with Ed Case in the Senate representing a state that doesn't require his brand of rightward-skewing "centrism" in order to be viable in a general election.

Discuss predictions, results, and thoughts here.

Update: Bumping this one up. The Honolulu Advertiser has a results page up... but this page looks like the best one to follow.

Update (II): It's an Akaka victory, 55-45. Normally I'd say that that's a hairy margin of victory for a incumbent senator, but this primary could have been much, much nastier. Kudos to Case for not going the Lieberman route.

Posted at 10:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate, Hawaii | Technorati

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Aloha!
(U r welcome james - if you want to remove this post from the other thread please do so)
The Honolulu Advertiser is reporting a record number of Absentee Ballots received, 94,000 compared with 80,000 in 2004. Republicans can vote in the Dem Primary. Both these factors would seem to favor Case, and give me some angst. Otherwise, I'd be more comfortable predicting an Akaka win, as I'm hoping for. This may be closer than expected but I'll still go with Akaka.
In HI-02's crap shoot in the 10 candidate Dem Primary: former LG Mazie Hirono seems likes the operative favorite as much as I'd wish though that progressive State Rep Brian Schatz could pull out a win.
On the gopee side, Ex State Rep & former House Minority Leader & Royal Prince Quentin Kawananakoa would seem like the favorite, though his past history regarding a cocaine bust (in 89) and untimely dropping out of a race (98) against Neil Abercrombie-D, could see him lose to State Sen Bob Hogue.
Whatever the end results both HI-Sen & HI-02 should be considered "Safe Dem" in Nov. Here's a also, here's a link to HNL channel 8 reults: http://www.khnl.com/Global/category.asp?C=81280&nav=menu55_6_4

Posted by: Predictor at September 23, 2006 04:10 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm sure this is too good to be true, but are we lucky enough that if Case loses this primary, it will be too late for him to also run for reelection in his House seat, and we can be rid of him all together?

Posted by: progressivemuslimnj at September 23, 2006 05:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Case isn't running for his House seat anymore--there are about 10 Democrats fighting for that open seat right now. So, in theory, Case has no openings until the next Senate seat opens up if he loses the primary.

Posted by: James L. at September 23, 2006 05:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

More than any other state, Hawaii seems to value incumbency. The only Republicans they've ever voted for in Presidential elections are Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984, both times when they were incumbents. In 2004, John Kerry had a scare trying to unseat the incumbent George Bush in Hawaii....and only pulled in 51% of the vote on Honolulu County where three-quarters of Hawaiians live. That dynamic would certainly seem to favor Akaka if it holds.

Case is a lousy Democrat, but he does bring to the table representation from the most Democratic islands of Maui, Kauai, and Hawaii, and the fact that he's the white guy which could appeal to alot of white Honolulu businessmen, most of whom are normally Republicans. I was worried at first about Case, but am slightly less so after that last poll showing Akaka with a 13-point lead. Then again, didn't Steve Laffey have an 11-point lead too?

Posted by: Mark at September 23, 2006 07:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One more thing to consider is that Case might have the best chance to beat Linda Lingle in 2010 if Inouye retires. Clearly, Case would be a much more acceptable alternative for us in that scenario, making it all the more imperative that he lose in this race tonight.

Posted by: Mark at September 23, 2006 07:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I wouldn't be all to sad if Case replaced Inouye as Senator, I mean they are both afterall conservative Democrats. Akaka is a different story, who is a solid progressive. Only difference really between Inouye and Case is that Case supported the war.

Posted by: KainIIIC at September 23, 2006 08:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

According to the AP, it'll be 3:30 a.m. Eastern time before they plan to release any results here. So we'd better either prepare for a long night or wait until morning.

Posted by: Mark at September 24, 2006 01:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like the Absentee count is up on the State Site:
Akaka 47,446 56%
Case 36,642 43.2%
Blank 0.7%

HI-02
Rep: Hogue leads with 49.6% to Kawananakoa 41.4%
Dem: Hirono leads 24.9%, Hanabusa 18.6%, Matsunagua 15.8%
Link here for full: http://www.hawaii.gov/elections/results/2006/primary/pdf/histatewide.pdf

Posted by: Predictor at September 24, 2006 02:57 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So, Predictor... you're going to stay up all night and liveblog this baby, aren't you, buddy? ;)

Posted by: James L. at September 24, 2006 03:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So, this can't be right...but the Honolulu Advertiser has Akaka with a huge lead.

http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/election06/primary/results

Posted by: bosdcla14 at September 24, 2006 03:32 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

56.4-43.6?

Yeah, those are the absentee ballots. Some polls apparently stayed open longer than the 6pm deadline, so the results will be a little delayed (not that I intend to stay up for them).

Posted by: James L. at September 24, 2006 03:39 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hehehe, yup James, only 1 am here. Well at least I'm going to keep the computer up and be checking. You know I really want Akaka to win... Hirono will be a good choice in HI-02, as it doesn't look like Schatz will come close, just hoping Matsunagua doesn't get it.
Of course this is all Absentees but I'd say if Akaka was 13 points ahead in those, I'll probably head back to bed and sleep better. Envision fingers crossed. LOL. Later (maybe much).

Posted by: Predictor at September 24, 2006 04:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

With over 64% of the vote in, Akaka has about a 55-45 lead, or over 15,000 votes. Hopefully the numbers will keep going this way, but it looks safer and safer.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at September 24, 2006 05:09 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'd be seriously depressed if we'd have to deal with Ed Case in the Senate representing a state that doesn't require his brand of rightward-skewing "centrism" in order to be viable in a general election.

Looks like Akaka is gonna take this one. But I can't say I would have been all that happy either way. On one hand you have Case and his pro-corporate claptrap, but on the other hand you have Akaka and all his strange deals with Ted Stevens. On the whole I have a hard time deciding which bothers me more.

Posted by: Jay at September 24, 2006 05:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Looks like Hawai'i decided not to go with pro-Iraq War supporter Case and in HI-02, looks like Hirono-D vs. Hogue-R, guess Quentin couldn't avoid the past. Aloha, till tomorrow.

Posted by: Predictor at September 24, 2006 05:49 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Seems like the voters in HI-02 had a hard time choosing the candidates. In the Dem primary, 800 votes between the leading candidates (20,7%-20,0%), in the Repug primary 200 votes (45,6%-44,5%).

Posted by: micha1976 at September 24, 2006 08:25 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Good to hear that Akaka pulled out. Are there any more primaires left till november?

Posted by: D in FL. at September 24, 2006 01:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Nope, Hawaii hosts the last primary. I don't know the demographics of HI-02, but Hirono appears to be a solid progressive vote which is great...but is there any chance this seat can become competitive?

Posted by: NYPopulist at September 24, 2006 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NYPopulist, I doubt it. HI-02 is the more Democratic of the two districts and consists of the three Hawaiian islands outside of the Honolulu. Even when Honolulu County only went 51% for John Kerry in 2004, the other three islands went for Kerry with 60-61% of the vote. One would have to believe the Democratic advantage is even more prominent in localized races. Ed Case is likely the closest thing to a Republican HI-02 would elect in an open election.

Posted by: Mark at September 24, 2006 02:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Kerry won HI-02 with 56% (same % as Gore got). Kawananakoa-R had the most bucks, $378,000 to Hogue's-R $31,000. Unlikely this will go anywhere but to Hirono-D.
As much fun as it was, glad Primary season is over so we can focus on Nov.7th. With the exception of a few disappointments (MD-04 & CA Dem Gov) Primary season was went favorably, including Dem turnout) and hopefully that'll carry over into Election Day.

Posted by: Predictor at September 24, 2006 02:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment