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Sunday, September 03, 2006

NM-01: Independent Poll Shows a Tight Race

Posted by DavidNYC

Via NM FBI Hop, a new poll on the race for New Mexico's first CD, taken by for the Albuquerque Journal (you'll need to watch a brief ad to access the article) by the firm Research & Polling (likely voters, no trendlines):

Madrid (D): 42
Wilson (R-inc.): 45
Undecided: 10
(Moe: ±4.8%)

This poll, apparently the first independent survey of this race, is in line with Madrid's recent internal polling, which showed the race 46-44 Wilson just a few weeks ago.

The troubling thing about this poll is how much better Wilson does with her own party than Madrid. Wilson has the support of 83% of Republicans while only 66% of Democrats favor Madrid. Indeed, 17% of Dems prefer Wilson, while only 8% of GOPers like Madrid. However, this may not be as big a problem as it looks, because Dems outstrip Republicans in voter registration in this district.

The good news is that Bush's approval in the state stands at just 38-51, according to this same poll. As long as Madrid can keep pumping anti-incumbent sentiment, it's going to be hard for Wilson to get out from under that burden.

P.S. I think that this poll is of likely voters - the articles phrase it a bit confusingly, though. If you think otherwise, let us know in comments.

Posted at 03:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Mexico | Technorati

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Comments

If there's one battleground district in the country where the alleged "Latino outrage" over GOP immigration policy could unseat a Republican incumbent, I would bet on it being this one, so the fact that Madrid isn't walking away with this is troubling. Perhaps there's a bonanza of new Latino voters being registered that will help Madrid, but that premise certainly didn't come to fruition in 2004 when Bush snatched this Gore state from the Dems. If the Dems aren't winning this seat in November, it's hard to imagine they'll pick up 14 other seats. It's early and Madrid has plenty of time to win some momentum, but that won't be easy to get against a strong candidate like Wilson. I gotta say I'm disappointed with this poll all things considered.

Posted by: Mark at September 3, 2006 06:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Mark, exactly. I see this race as one where the Democrat shouldn't be winning, she should be cruising. And yet, she's still slightly behind (within the MOE to be sure, but behind). I'm getting increasingly annoyed by the emerging CW that Democrats will take the house---I just don't see it yet.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at September 3, 2006 06:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The article on the Madrid-Wilson poll has the following sentence: "Ten percent of the registered voters, who said they are likely to vote in the general election on Nov. 7, were undecided."

So I think that it is likely voters.

Posted by: LP at September 3, 2006 07:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

bosdcla, the primary advocates of boosting Democrats' prognoses for victory in the House right now appear to be Republican strategists. Did you read today's "Washington Post" column by Dan Balz and David Broder where two GOP strategists stating "on condition of anonymity" that Dems have, respectively, 75% and 90% chances of winning back the House in November?

Republican strategists don't really believe they have a one-in-ten chance of retaining the House, they're spinning a web in which the media, hungry for a story, artificially inflate Democrats' expectations, triggering overconfidence among Democratic voters, fear among Republican voters, and a sense of inevitably among independents. If it becomes a base election where the Democrats are cocky, the Republicans are scared, and the media are clueless pawns overinflating Democratic prospects, the GOP's superior GOTV operation (and let's be honest, their larger base) will swamp the Dems just as it did in 2002 and 2004.

So far, it's playing out just as the GOP hopes it will, with lofty CW expectations of sweeping Democratic victories that are not supported by race-by-race polling. As the media becomes more confident of seismic Democratic momentum, I become less confident of it.

Posted by: Mark at September 3, 2006 08:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I hate to say this, but I agree with Mark's take here. If a GOPer says they think they're gonna lose, you know you're being spun. The only good news is that the non-partisan professionals think the GOP is pretty doomed this year - and guys like Cook, Rothenberg, etc. tend to know a good bit more than your average tradmed reporter.

Posted by: DavidNYC at September 3, 2006 09:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"If there's one battleground district in the country where the alleged "Latino outrage" over GOP immigration policy could unseat a Republican incumbent, I would bet on it being this one, so the fact that Madrid isn't walking away with this is troubling. "

The large military base in town may be a problem for Madrid. Also, Wilson has a well organized constituent support base. While she is quick to pin emblems and badges on veterans, her voting record shows just how poorly she really represents the constituency here; her poor record is not reflected in the GOP dominated press here so the people don't know how badly they're being represented.

Posted by: Suzanne Prescott at September 3, 2006 10:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

David, I suspect the GOP will continue to employ this strategy, having learned their lesson from the 2000 election, where they foolishly declared victory for themselves a week before the election. Karl Rove was telling reporters how Bush would sweep the battleground states with more than 350 electoral votes, while Bush didn't even both to campaign the day before the election, believing he had it in the bag. The result: Bush's would-be voters apparently shared the perception of inevitable Bush victory and failed to show up at the polls.

Nobody believed Karl Rove in 2004 when he spoke of the three million evangelical voters who sat out the 2000 election, but in retrospect, it appears he may have been onto something. His own comments and the actions of his leader failed to motivate said voters in 2000, and they lost the popular vote because of it. While risky, the current strategy of waving the white flag before Labor Day gives the GOP plenty of time to bestow horrific fear in the hearts of its base and motivating turnout among disgruntled red-meat Republicans. Even if the strategy only manages to cut GOP losses in November, setting the bar for the opposition this high allows anything less than a Democratic takeover of the House to be sold as unmitigated defeat for the Dems and renewed momentum for the GOP.

I'm not sure what the Democratic counter-strategy to such a ploy should be. I hesitate to suggest that the Dems should publicly undermine their own prospects for the fall, but we need something to keep our base, and even more importantly the independents, from staying home in November. The Republicans were able to eviscerate the Dems in 1994 because the Democratic Party and its voters had no idea what was coming. We don't have that luxury in 2006, meaning we actually have to accomplish this victory on our own, likely without the help of a clueless GOP base that stays home. In my mind, the challenge is growing stronger for us that what it was six months ago when the Republican mindset about November 7, 2006, was still arrogant overconfidence.

Posted by: Mark at September 3, 2006 10:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Whilst you sre reading the NM 1 article there are similar articles over there on NM 2 and NM 3.

Posted by: BENAWU at September 4, 2006 08:23 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This isn't a surprize Wilson is a hard campaigner and she knows how to play the game. Theres no way we are gonna win in a cake walk. But that being said I do expect her to go down this year.

Posted by: D in FL. at September 4, 2006 04:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Whilst you sre reading the NM 1 article there are similar articles over there on NM 2 and NM 3."

Yeah, but NM-2 and NM-3 aren't exactly ... competitive. If you want to see them, along with the Senate race, you can look here

Posted by: LP at September 4, 2006 05:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

"Karl Rove was telling reporters how Bush would sweep the battleground states with more than 350 electoral votes, while Bush didn't even both to campaign the day before the election, believing he had it in the bag. The result: Bush's would-be voters apparently shared the perception of inevitable Bush victory and failed to show up at the polls."

A lot of this also had to do with the 60 Minutes drunk driving story which aired a few days before the election.

I'm amazed if people somehow expect a personally popular, 8-year incumbent like Wilson to be easily defeated. She has always made a production of being independent - whether she actually is or not, that's the perception people have of her.

"If the Dems aren't winning this seat in November, it's hard to imagine they'll pick up 14 other seats."

I think there are probably about 14 or 15 other seats which would be easier to pick up than this one. I've never been sure as to why people assume this is an easy pickup.

Posted by: James B3 at September 4, 2006 07:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Altough I think we'll pick up this seat, I never saw it as an easy pick-up. My contacts in New Mexico had related their displeasure with Madrid a number of years ago. My concerns are based on that and the fact that Wilson has been able to portray herself as a moderate and distance herself from Bush Admin. She also is an attractive candidate, caught her once on Real Time With Bill Maher, and she is impressive.
NM Secty State does not give CD voting breakdowns, however, based on Madrid's 2002 AG race results by counties included in CD-01, it looks like Madrid probably carried the district with 55% of the vote in 2002.
We have both Richardson & Bingaman at the top of the ticket here. A State that barely went to the Gop in 2002 and Emily's List supported Madrid is a much better and more well funded candidate than past candidate Romero. But, I'll reiterate that this will not be a walkaway, it'll be a close one and I'm not discouraged by this Poll.

Posted by: Predictor at September 5, 2006 12:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment