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Thursday, September 28, 2006

NY-26: NRCC Chairman tied with Jack Davis (D)

Posted by RBH

SurveyUSA released a new poll showing the following results.

Jack Davis (D): 43
Tom Reynolds (R-Inc): 45
Christine Murphy (G): 8
Undecided: 4
MoE: ±4.5%

But, there's a few catches that make this look even better.

1) The Green Party candidate got booted off the ballot during the polling period. She got 8% of Democrats and 20% of Independents. And those votes are more likely to go to Davis than to Reynolds.

2) Reynolds leads with Republicans by a 62/31 margin. In races where your side is outnumbered, it's pretty helpful to get some people from the other side cross over and vote for your guy, especially if you can get 1/3rd of them to cross over.

3) SurveyUSA had a huge Republican sample. In a district where 41% of voters are registered Republicans, their sample was 51% Republican.Needless to say, when it comes to this poll, I would imagine that at worst, it's a tie, and at best, we're on our way to an upset.

So, some of you might be asking "Who the hell is Jack Davis?"

Jack Davis is a business owner who is staunchly opposed to free trade treaties. He ran against Reynolds in 2004, mostly self-financing his campaign, and recieving 44% of the vote.

Davis' website outlines 12 short policy statements which are the basic foundation for his campaign. As well, there's Speeches.

Back in 2004, Davis spent over $1M of his own money. In 2006, he has mentioned spending as much as $2M of his own money. Of course, Reynolds just says that he's trying to buy the seat. Which I would imagine doesn't quite work as well when it comes to someone who is 73 years old. He's spending what it'll take to win, because people like Tom Reynolds upped the ante in campaign spending. Jack Davis probably isn't going to make any fundraising lists, but he is putting this race on the map.

And I can't see any problem in making the Republican House campaign committee chairman concentrate on winning his seat. After all, he'll be spending money in his district, instead of sending it off to help other incumbents.

Posted at 07:22 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, New York, Polls | Technorati

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Comments

Wow, that is crazy. What is it with Reynolds that gives him such weak numbers among Republicans?

Posted by: bosdcla14 at September 28, 2006 07:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, Reynolds wanted a district that he could "vote like a southern conservative" in, so the republican legislature DeLaymandered his seat to make him safe, so his district is about as conservative as Randy Kuhl's. However, Upstate New York is incredibly pissed off at such figures as Bush and Pataki(Pataki gets his highest disapprovals in upstate, highest approvals in suburban NYC), and have been badly hurt by free trade, which is Jack Davis's #1 issue... plus Jack Davis was a former Republican, so that gives him a sort of comfort towards moderate Republicans (the Republicans in Upstate are generally more moderate than their Southern/Midwestern counterparts).

I always had hope for this race this cycle, as I was fascinated that Tom Reynolds got held so low in '04, but kinda saddened at the fact that this race was getting no buzz. Perhaps now it'll be different, and perhaps contributions could be pouring into Upstate New York to retake the House!

Posted by: KainIIIC at September 28, 2006 08:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, when it comes to contributions, they could come, but then again, Jack Davis is probably able to put $2M of his own money into the race, and maybe more.

Which will divert NRCC focus and strain their resources.

Posted by: RBH at September 28, 2006 08:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hm.. I'm not exactly sure if NRCC money has rules and regulations but what could happen if there is no law forbidding it is that Reynolds could overreact and throw more than enough money into his own race and kill Republican chances in other races idk just my little thought of the day.

Posted by: D in FL. at September 29, 2006 12:31 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Plus, he certainly has to focus on his own race now, when he should be working with endangered Republicans. I guess those guys just got told that they're own their own.

50 state, 435 district strategy in action.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at September 29, 2006 03:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So from what I'm reading of the Foley Scandal on DKOS, Reynolds was one of the congresspersons informed months in advance about the fiasco. Nail in coffin.

Posted by: Predictor at September 29, 2006 11:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment