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Tuesday, September 05, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCIt's Labor Day weekend - go have fun! But if your definition of fun involves talking about campaigns and elections, do it here.
P.S. Candidates in states (like NY, NH, etc.) which have primaries on Sept. 12th just filed their pre-primary fundraising reports yesterday. Paul Hodes pulled in $101K, while Charlie Bass took in $134K. Of course, Bass had about $50K from PACs while Hodes had just $10K. Nonetheless, this is yet another unimpressive showing for an endangered incumbent.
In cash-on-hand, Bass now leads $503K to $410K - Hodes spent about twice as much in the last reporting period. Given that he's a challenger with low name rec (and had been very thrifty until now), that makes sense to me. In any event, a less-than-$100K CoH means that Hodes still has 82% of what Bass has in the bank. That would still have put Hodes in the top ten last time. (Hopefully I'll have the chance to do another CoH competitiveness chart again soon.)
Posted at 10:00 AM in Open Threads | Technorati
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So, looks like we may be seeing some (independent) poll numbers in the NM-1 race on Sunday. Hopefully we'll see some confirmation on the results released by the Patricia Madrid campaign last week:
http://www.livefromsilvercity.com/?p=415
Posted by: Andurin ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.swingstateproject.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at September 1, 2006 03:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm working on the campaign of Steven Herr in Wisconsin's 1st district. There is a 5-way Democratic primary on September 12th, and then the winner gets to take on Paul Ryan and his $1.6 million. The district is only slightly red, but it gets written off because of Ryan's money. Of course, that is circular logic since Ryan wouldn't get to keep his warchest if he had a serious challenge. We're putting up a fight, to at least soften up Ryan for 2008 or perhaps ride a tsunami into the House this year.
Posted by: CA Pol Junkie at September 1, 2006 03:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Without a doubt, MD-04.
It's been a great week for Donna Edwards' primary challenge of seven-term incumbent Albert Wynn.
Last Friday, there was speculation that Wynn had ducked out of their joint interview on Washington Post radio. Edwards really shined during the show with Wynn unable to respond. One week has passed and I don't think Wynn has been on the show since. Wynn has had very little in the way of an answer to questions about his votes for the Bankruptcy bill, the Cheney energy bill, repealing the estate tax, gutting the Endangered Species Act, voting against net neutrality, etc.
Then on Wednesday, the Washington Post endorsed Edwards in the race. She's since raised over $7k via ActBlue alone (thanks to Eschaton, FireDogLake, DownWithTyranny and Crooks&Liars).
There have been questions about just where Wynn is since he's not talking doing much radio and TV. Apparently, he made time for the Washington Times though. In a column in Thursday's edition, Wynn attacked Democratic "bloggers and purists" who are inconveniencing him with this primary. With MD-04 adding parts of Montgomery County after redistricting, Wynn has far less of a stronghold on the district. In short, he seems very vulnerable and desperate.
No polling is available that I'm aware of but the local buzz (I live in the neighboring district but know plenty of people there as I went to high school in MD-04) is all on Edwards' side.
Posted by: P.A.H. at September 1, 2006 06:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Seeing as I'm from New MExico, I'm interested in NM-01. Heather Wilson vs Patricia Madrid.
The first non-partisan poll will come out Sunday in the Albuquerque Journal, so expect a lot of talk about it in the coming weeks. The last Dem poll showed the Republican incumbent ahead 46-44, virtually unchanged in months.
The two are dominating hte airwaves in such a way that during hte evening news, you see nothing but ads attacking one or the other. Once in a while, you'll see a Richardson spot highlighting that he's governor and will still be governor in November (his opponent isn't exactly ... sane).
And what's up to LiveFromSilverCity! I still have to add you to my blogroll... I keep forgetting.
Posted by: LP at September 1, 2006 10:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
TX-22, DeLay's seat, was the first Republican house seat to go 'Lean Dem' by some of the race rankers a week or so ago. Here's my prediction, in order, for the next Republican seats that we'll see switch to 'Lean Dem' in the coming weeks:
AZ-08 Kolbe's open - Graf will win the primary and Giffords (who will win too) will be instantly annointed the front runner. She'll be our second 'Lean Dem' after Lampson.
IN-08 Hostetler - We'll almost certainly see him tumble in the very next poll of IN-08. This "terrible campaigner, terrible rep, and all-around asshole; but he seems to win" bullshit meme wont go on much longer.
NY-24 Boehlert's open - Meier's got nuthin. We're just waiting for the first poll. Take Arcuri to the bank.
PA-10 Sherwood - When this guy beat the shit out of his DC mistress, he realllly turned a lot of people off. He's in deep trouble. Carney may not be the world's best campaigner, but Sherwood's just got way too much negativity. He's going down.
There's my prediction. What's yours? Braley? Wetterling? Mitchell? the Mean Jean Slayer, Ms. Wulsin? Who will be the next red house seat to suffer the national humiliation of race pundits writing "we're changing this one to Lean Dem now".
Posted by: Mike20169 at September 2, 2006 01:02 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Al Weed (VA-05) challenging Virgil Goode.
Fundraising is picking up. Glad the summer is over. Virgil's as evasive as ever, and times are rough for the GOP in VA. He's spent his entire recess in hiding.
Posted by: mikesnoo at September 2, 2006 01:03 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Today at 2 PM EST on Firedoglake there'll be a live blog session with two Fighting Dems from Colorado, Bill Winter and Jay Fawcett. These two national security experts are fighting two of the most extremist Republicans running for House seats anywhere in the country, the KKK's favorite candidate, Tom Tancredo and James Dobson's favorite candidate, Doug Lamborn. Both of these races are rated longshots by the DCCC but one of those longshots just got a lot shorter this week when the retiring Republican incumbent declared that the GOP nominee is too extremist for him to endorse. Read the whole story at Down With Tyranny now and join us for an open-ended discussion at Firedoglake (in the comments) at 2 PM (EST), 11 AM (West Coast), and, of course, noon in Colorado!
Posted by: DownWithTyranny at September 2, 2006 10:22 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I'm still beating the drum for the "long shot" race - NH-01. Jeb Bradley(R) is one Republican that the netroots should be going after- bigtime. His response to the Harper's Washington Babylon article by Ken Silverstein the other day - was truly lame. He is ripe for the pickings, and will face a tough opponent next week - if my favorite in the race, Jim Craig wins - then the race becomes a referendum on Bradley and the rubber stamp Republican congress.
From his response to the Harper's article, it's pretty obvious that he's really not prepared to defend his voting record. He voted against the Energy bill - after voting FOR all the provisions to the bill - the Republicans didn't need his vote to pass it, so he can now say he voted against it. Just sleazy! Read the two articles about Jeb Bradley's shameful record in Harper's at harpers.org.
Jim Craig is a lifelong Manchester resident who has served in the New Hampshire State House for 8 years, currently as Democratic Leader. This is the guy to beat Bradley - he's going after Bradley's record and he's put him on the defensive.
Hopefully, after next week's primary - Netroot's will get behind the Democratic winner and create a buzz for this race - like they have for Paul Hodes.
NH could really truly be a swingstate with support from Netroots!!
Posted by: leftydem at September 2, 2006 12:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Hi Mike20169,
I completely agree that Sherwood is going down. What makes you say that "Carney may not be the world's best campaigner?"
Chris has been getting a great response from D's, R's, and I's all over the district in all kinds of events and meetings. We have a great grassroots network of supporters who have been working for us for over a year now.
Rothenberg just upgraded our race to a toss-up; a brand new poll shows Sherwood falling 3 points from 49 to 46 during a period when he spent over $400,000 on 7 mail pieces, radio, and robocalls from Santorum and Bush; and we have been up on TV for three weeks while Sherwood is still dark. [Important to note that this poll was done after only a little more than 200 points/a few days on air]
This race is really taking off and is a battleground already for the US Chamber of Commerce and ATLA over Medicare Part D.
We are always looking for more suggestions... I am just not sure what you are referring to.
Thanks for following the race!
--Drew, Carney Campaaign Manager
Posted by: DrewEM at September 2, 2006 12:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
MN-everything. If it's in Minnesota, I'm watching it. We have a strong chance of taking back two congressional seats, holding the US Senate seat that's up with a great candidate, and knocking off several high-ranking Republican officials in statewide office...not to mention taking back the state house to give the DFL a lock on the state legislature. The GOP is on its heels all over the state, and that's music to my ears :)
Posted by: JelloAbode at September 2, 2006 12:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
It's great to hear encouraging news about Donna Edwards' challenge to Al Wynn in MD-04.
When I browse around on Maryland blogs, I see carping about some of the other Democratic candidates,
but everyone seems to admire Donna Edwards and wish her well.
Carney's solid in PA-10.
I have strong hopes for good news from that district on Election Day,
and I put Chris on my ActBlue page at:
http://www.actblue.com/page/defeat-exxon-pac-incumbents?refcode=sspcarney
If anyone's worried about it, show him some love!
Posted by: Christopher Walker at September 2, 2006 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
PA-Sen....The Republicans are crediting much of Santorum's bounce to his hard-line stance on immigration, which definitely seems to be the mainstream for that state when you look at the public support for the mayor of Hazelton making his city "the most difficult place in the country to be an illegal immigrant". Casey, meanwhile, is towing the McCain-Feingold line, which it seems Democrats irrationally believe to be where the country is on this issue.
If Santorum is able to make this issue stick, expect the Republicans to ramp up their efforts to paint Democrats as the party of illegal immigration. I was hoping beyond hope that this issue was gonna take a backseat in this campaign, as recent events made appear likely. If Santorum's playbook goes national and dominates the stage in the next nine weeks, the Democrats will be lucky to gain seats.
Posted by: Mark at September 2, 2006 01:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David,
I'm happy to see that Paul Hodes is raising money but he has some weaknesses that the Republican attack groups are likely to exploit.
For example, the bulk of Hodes' resume is his career as a children's singer-songwriter. See the bio on his web site:
http://www.hodesforcongress.com/free_details.asp?id=7
Or see more here, including an image that is bound to hurt him:
http://www.bigroundrecords.com/artists_main.html
If the Republican attack dogs are worth their money they will paint Hodes as Raffi.
Maybe given the anti-incumbent sentiment Hodes would win anyway. But he would be smart to work out a good defense -- and a better offense -- before November.
Posted by: trueblue1962 at September 2, 2006 07:57 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
We welcome any attacks on Paul for recording music for children.
We also appreciate the alternative definition of "bulk."
Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at September 2, 2006 08:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
OH-02, Dr. Victoria Wulsin v. Jean "Mean Jean" Schmidt. This race is really heating up and Dr. Wulsin has formulated a massive grassroots effort to win the election. She could really use some love right now so if you'd consider donating to her campaign and helping the Democrats regain Congress it would really help out. I've raised over $1,700 for her on actblue and the combined total of all the pages is about $40,000.
To donate go to
http://www.actblue.com/page/beatjeanschmidt
Posted by: Craig at September 2, 2006 09:35 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Another race we can't forget about (even though the DCCC apparently has) is IA-03, where vulnerable incumbent Democrat Leonard Boswell will no longer receive DCCC advertising dollars this fall, allegedly because he's "doing so well he doesn't need the help." Lo and behold, the Jeff Lamberti campaign responds to this revelation by beginning an unanswered advertising blitz last week on Des Moines area TV stations. Something tells me the DCCC's next round of polling won't be nearly as favorable for Boswell, who now runs the risk of being "Granholmed" by an opponent with deep pockets. I hope Boswell has enough money is own campaign coffers to respond with an ad blitz of his own or else he will lose.
Posted by: Mark at September 2, 2006 10:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Oh, well. I guess Paul Hodes' distinguished career as an attorney - including putting environmental criminals behind bars when he was a prosecutor - doesn't add up to anything. Yeah, that David Souter, hard to believe he hired Raffi v. 2.0, huh?
Posted by: DavidNYC at September 3, 2006 12:17 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
David and Hodes Staff,
Paul Hodes may have done good work in his career, but if you google him or read his web site you'll come away with the impression that he is a children's singer-songwriter. And some of the information and the images that he himself has put on the web leads you to that conclusion.
If you follow the link I posted yesterday (http://www.bigroundrecords.com/artists_main.html) you'll see an image that... I let you decide what it implies. I don't think the Democrats are going to win by embracing stereotypes of the Me Generation.
The point is that if the Republicans do what they have done in NH in the past -- like skewer Martha Fuller-Clarke for being overweight -- they will have a field day with this.
Winning is not just about raising money. It requires tactical smarts. I've seen our guys painted into a corner in the past. I don't want to see it happen again.
Posted by: trueblue1962 at September 3, 2006 08:00 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I believe voters are smarter than you are giving them credit for.
Also, tactical smarts probably requires one to ponder the possibility that Martha Fuller Clark lost to Jeb Bradley because it's a Republican district and was a Republican year, not because of stuff about her weight that the Republicans never ran in any ad. Oh, that and the fact that Republicans were jamming the phone lines, something that's already resulted in three people being sentenced to prison.
But thank you for your concerns.
Posted by: staffathodesforcongress at September 3, 2006 10:38 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Trueblue, the thing is, if you google Paul Hodes, the first result that's about his music is number 4; that's the only result in the top 10 about his music and one of 2 not about his campaign. In the next 10 google results, there appears to be another one link to his music.
Similarly, his biography on his campaign website has five headings: "A tough, smart prosecutor"; "first to criminally prosecute polluter"; "chosen NH special prosecutor"; "serving the community"; and "creating award winning music for families." In that order. In other words, discussion of his music is last, after several items on his career as a prosecutor and one on his community and political work.
In short, your concerns just don't have any empirical basis.
Posted by: MissLaura at September 3, 2006 01:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Maybe my computer isn't working right, but what image? The photo of (I'm guessing) Paul & Peggo hugging? So affection is a bad thing? Come on - that kiss practically saved Al Gore's election campaign!
Anyhow, if the idea is that Republicans will say, "Paul Hodes is a lightweight because he creates children's music" (which I don't think is an especially good line of attack), the response is simple and easy - you just point to Paul's highly successful career as an attorney. I don't think the "lightweight" charge has any chance of sticking.
But also remember this: Most people who work with children tend to be beloved. Sure, the snarky teenager set might think it's funny to mock Raffi, but parents and kids love him. They love Mr. Rogers, too. Hell, they love Steve from Blue's Clues. Kids, because they worship these guys and parents, because these guys entertain their kids. So I think going after a noted children's entertainer is not really great political fodder. It makes you look like you hate kids - and parents.
Posted by: DavidNYC at September 3, 2006 03:03 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Even thought the New York Times keeps OH-1 as leans Republican, John Cranley is still the most credible challenger that Steve Chabot has faced in nearly a decade and there is a chance for a Democrat to win this seat.
Help us Take Back Cincinnati:
http://www.takebackcincinnati.com
Posted by: RGBlogging at September 4, 2006 09:29 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Folks,
I'm still interested in the Nevada Senate race between Ensign and Carter Jr. Steve Lungrin, a precinct captain in Mesquite enthusiastically posted a new WSJ online poll that Carter has made up a HUGE amount of ground (I'm talking James Webb ground) since July and is trailing Ensign by just about 3% points. Here is the story from dailykos.com:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/9/3/212251/3347
It might still seem like a longshot, but if fate means Jack to lose, then we'll damn well give him a good fight anyhow. Go Carter!
Posted by: CanadianDem at September 5, 2006 02:06 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just received an e-mail from the DCCC, in it they have raised their prediction on gains from "8-12 seats to 15-20" seats. I noticed on a previous thread, angst regarding overly confident Dem predictions related to it being a trap for Gop spin. I don't see many, if any, Gopers on line predicting anything but a 0-5 Dem seat gain, nor do I think their spin matters much. The conservative Gop base staying home or not working this election (and not contributing) is far more likely than Dems not turning out to vote and support. From what I see most of the Gop fundraising bucks have been coming from expensive one-shot affairs with Bush & Cheney and not a mass of individual contributors who are energized to make a greater effort.
The fact that we have more financial parity than in recent history should be seen as a sign that our quest is not hopeless nor that it should be kept a well-held secret. In other words, I have no intention of diminishing my hopes for our prospects out of fear that gop spin on this will be used against us.
If anything, the professional pundits are being very conservative on their predictions, as am I.
Charlie Cooks 9/1 Update for House races shows a revised 18 Toss-up up from 17- Ohio -15 has been added. 16 Lean Republican, down from 18 (OH-15 moved to Tossup and CA-11 Pombo moved to Likely Repub. 20 rated as Likely (up 1 from 19. That results in 54 competitive seats versus 20 Dem competitive (11 Likely & 9 Leans) Ohio-6 was moved from Leans to likely.
Can't say I agree that Pombo should have been moved to Likely Gop. His anemic primary showing and his opponents endorsing McNerney are among his many burdens. Although Arnie is rebounding in the polls, I don't see him helping out "Dirty Dick" and we still have Di Fi on the ballot for pulling power, and also the down the ballot statewide races. Pombo is ripe for fallout from the pervasive anti-incumbent mood given his highlighted abuses of public office.
The backlash to his anti-environmentalism will seal his fate. Our newly flopped "Environmentalist" Governor is distancing himself from this guy.
Posted by: Predictor at September 5, 2006 01:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Here's the link to the Cook update:
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_aug17.pdf
Posted by: Predictor at September 5, 2006 01:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
An August poll in the NY-24 race has Mike Arcuri up by 4 points.
Posted by: Steve at September 5, 2006 01:08 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
I want to call attention to MI-11. This is a winnable contest for Tony Trupiano (http://www.tony4congress2006.com).
Thaddeus McCotter has no name recognition and no record to run on -- the high point of his political career was having the President call him "that rock and roll guy" after hearing him play with the Second Amendments (an all-Congressman cover band). He is refusing debates and joint appearances, and would rather talk to the WaPo than any of the local papers or his own constituents.
Tony Trupiano has the volunteers, the energy, the better stand on issues, and is running in a district that only gave McCotter 57% in '04 and has been trending Democrat ever since.
Add some attention from the netroots, and some funding for these final weeks, and we will turn MI-11 blue!
Posted by: helzapoppn at September 5, 2006 02:28 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Good news on Arcuri (NY races looking all the more better), can't locate the Benenson Strategy Group Poll (they've been polling Senate races in VA,PA & RI), but here's a press link on this that I did locate:
http://www.wktv.com/news/local/3549442.html
Posted by: Predictor at September 5, 2006 02:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Mark, how could the Republicans make the Democrats the party of illegal immigration when its Bush and Rove that came up with the idea of the "guest worker program". Also factor in that the Republicans are the majority party and have done nothing to stop illegal immigration.
Posted by: Sean at September 5, 2006 08:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Setting aside the Senate bill and the "guest worker" program for a second, there is a clear way to attack House GOP incumbents for the bill they supported...
On immigration, whenever a House Republican trumpets how he or she voted to penalize employers who willfully hire undocumented workers, the following two votes on amendments to the Sensenbrenner-Tancredo bill should be thrown in their faces:
The Westmoreland Amendment (H.AMDT.664), which sets caps on employer sanctions penalties; provides an exemption from penalties for initial good-faith violations; and provides a safe harbor for contractors whose subcontractors employ illegal aliens. Roll call vote #657, Dec. 16, 2005 (passed 247-170-1) -- http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2005/roll657.xml; and
The Gonzalez Amendment (H.AMDT.665), which sought to increase civil penalties against employers who do not comply with the Employment Eligibility Verification System. Roll call vote #658, Dec. 16, 2005 (failed 87-332) -- http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2005/roll658.xml.
What you'll find is that most EVERY HOUSE REPUBLICAN, given the chance to attack the demand side of illegal immigration by imposing stronger penalties on employers who hire illegal workers and fail to comply with the proposed verification system, chose to let them off the hook.
Posted by: helzapoppn at September 7, 2006 09:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment
Just received Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Update. He is showing 14 Gop house seats as Toss-up, 2 Gop seats as Leans Dem (PA-06 & TX-22). On the Dem side he is showing IL-08 as Toss-up and 8 seats as Leans Dem.
For the Senate he's showing PA & MT as Leans Dem, with OH, MO & RI as Gop Tossups, no Dem Toss-ups, all are Leans or Likely Dem.
Posted by: Predictor at September 7, 2006 12:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment