Swing State Project

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Saturday, September 30, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

Apart from FL-16, that is. Okay, you can talk about that one, too.

P.S. A new Massa internal poll (PDF) shows an extremely tight race: Kuhl 43, Massa 39. For Kuhl to be mired so far below 50 is a real sign of danger. Of course, Eric Massa is a netroots candidate (one of the first, in fact), and he still could use your support by the filing deadline tonight.

Speaking of which, I'm sure you saw that we blasted through our goal of 10,000 donors yesterday. And I'll tell you this: It sure is nice to be able to end the push a day early. But I also noticed that we're just about $25,000 away from a total of one million dollars raised overall. I'll be very excited when we hit that milestone!

UPDATE: The Swing State Project will be taking a break for Yom Kippur. We'll be back in action on Tuesday. See you then.

Posted at 03:13 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Comments

OK, did anyone see the flap about Phil Kellam (Thelma Drake's opponent in Virginia) and his "assault" convinction from the 1970's? Some idiot lady tailgated him, then cut him off, causing Kellam's girlfriend at the time to hit her head on the dashboard when he slammed on the breaks. Kellam got out, smack the hood of the woman's car and yelled at her - he never touched her. How the hell did he get charged with assault for this? Can the Drake campaign actually make hay out of something that trivial?

Posted by: X Stryker at September 30, 2006 05:11 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Two recent congressional polls from Survey USA. In OH-06, Wilson(D) leads Blasdel by 13 points.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=5c925039-fe0e-47ec-a288-21b6cab0b0ca&q=31864

In KY-03, Anne Northrup(R) leads John Yarmuth(D) by six points. I doubt we will take her out, but its good to see that this is close.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=1a8019a8-9014-436b-8f1f-7abecb7ed18b&q=31860

Posted by: Sean at September 30, 2006 05:39 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

VA-02: Yup, the little vicious attack on Phil Kellam kinda got buried by all that creepy news out of FL-16 (FOLEY-GOP). Guess it should have been no surprise that something like that wingnut drake/allen acolyte known as "bearingdrift" would have perpetrated digging up 28 year old trash, that happened in an adjacent state and did not result in any kind of a conviction of record. Looks like the GOP smear campaign is coincidentally close to the day of revelations of the Foley cover-up by the Gop hierarchy, how timely.
The Drake campaign should be very worried about their candidate being a target as Thelma's scurrilous past as a Real Estate Agent in the Ocean View section of Norfolk regarding transactions with the Redevelopment Authority and the City Building Inspections Office and a less than ethical Real Estate firm is ripe for exposure. Glass Houses beware, some of us know of Thelma's business reputation. Plus, she & George Allen have alot in common and it ain't "dipping".

Posted by: Predictor at September 30, 2006 08:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

As always, my very own MI-07.

For those that have forgotten, faux-moderate and establishment-supported Republican Congressman Joe Schwarz was defeated in the GOP primary by Tim Walberg. Walberg is a Club for Growth candidate, and also received considerable support from the Minuteman PAC and Right to Life. He's the sort that opposes income taxes, favoring instead a 23% sales tax, and opposes the separation of church and state.

Lately, there's been plenty of excitement. After a serious war of words against Walberg (including one Washington Post op-ed), Congressman Schwarz has filed a complaint with the FEC against Walberg, which garnered some bad press for the new GOP nominee. Walberg is also welcoming Dick Cheney to the district for a fundraiser (although the fundraiser won't actually be in the district), and Constitution Party nominee David Horn announced that he was supporting Walberg. Why? Well, because Walberg is so far to the right that he ought to be in the Constitution Party!

In this 45% Kerry district, the Democratic candidate is Sharon Marie Renier. She's quirky, yes, and underfunded, but actually represents the district fairly well. It's an impossible race to win, but, then, I would've thought it was impossible for Mark Foley to resign so suddenly too.

For local blogosphere involvement, see Michigan Liberal and Walberg Watch.

Renier's (admittedly poor) website: www.Renier4Rep.com.

Posted by: Fitzy D. at September 30, 2006 09:33 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Since I'm not there right now I'm thinking about NJ-05. My hometown is there and is represented by Scott Garrett who is C-R-A-Z-Y!! This would be a place we could win if Menendez were a stronger candidate. The western region is very rural but growing. Many people out there commute to NYC. The environment is a top priority with the Ford Superfund site. Garrett did nothing until this year to get it back on the list. In the more populated Bergen County part of the district Garrett is nearly unknown. With a strong showing from the bottom of the ticket it will be the local candidates and Paul Aronsohn who can put Menedez over the top in Bergen and win NJ.

Posted by: jerzay at September 30, 2006 10:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Ford and Corker are in a dead heat according to this current poll from Mason-Dixon. Ford seems to have the momentum for now.

http://www.tfponline.com/absolutenm/templates/election2006.aspx?articleid=5408&zoneid=66

Posted by: James B3 at October 1, 2006 04:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-1 is heating up, the netroots can do alot of good in this race!

http://www.myspace.com/cranleyforcongress

Posted by: Casey Trimble at October 1, 2006 10:01 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here in Missouri, Claire McCaskill is pulling ahead of our junior senator, Jim Talent(less) hack. It is far from over, but the common sense and level-headedness that Missourians are known for appear to be making a comeback for fall. Rural Missouri is full of people of fath, yes - but they are not idiots and they reject faithless and feckless officials. The rural Missourians whose kids go off to serve are not amused by a senator who only bothers to attend 30 of 95 meetings of the Senate Armed Services Committee and they are not taken in by his "I'm working to make the tax cuts permanent schtick. Bush's tax cuts have no effect whatsoever on the average Missourian, and they are smart enough to realize it. He has thrown his lot in with Alan Keyes to oppose the Missouri Stem Cell Research ballot initiative - which about 70% of Missourians are for.

Across the state line in Kansas, Kathleen Sebellius is cruising toward victory. Even Republicans don't know the name of her opponent (Jim Barnett) and I have not seen a single Barnett yard sign. Kathleen is a good governor and a great leader, and after her second term will probably ascend to the senate. We can only hoe.

Also across the state line, the race for Attorney General is coming together with Paul Morrison just spanking Phill Kline (never trust a guy who can't spell "Phil") over all manner of issues. Kline respons with spin and cherry-picking facts. He blasts Morrison for things that Kline himself contributed to when he sat in the legislature. Kansans too are pretty well versed in common sense and deliberate decision making. The reddest state in the nation has the most liberal abortion laws. Go figure.

Magic 8-Ball says McCaskill, Morrison, Sebelius and Stem Cells all emerge victorious on November 7.

Posted by: Global Citizen at October 1, 2006 12:47 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I gotta disagree with X Stryker on the KY-3. That poll was taken right after Northup's vicious (and unsubstantiated attack ad), and the Yarmuth response ad (which ran after the poll) was fantastic! http://www.yarmuthforcongress.com/yarmuth.html/campaign/multimedia/television-spots/ridiculous/

Being down 6 with 6 weeks to go against a 5 time incumbent is great if they come to play ball. And if that ad is any indication, it looks like the Yarmuth team means business. This is gonna be a great race!

Posted by: voter in the ville at October 1, 2006 03:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

We should be able to finally take KY-03. This is a district that Kerry won 52-47 and Northrup continues to vote against working families by voting against minimum wage increases and for more tax cuts for billionaires.

The key to finally taking the district is heavy African American turnout and Democratic turnout.

Posted by: Sean at October 2, 2006 12:12 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

NC-08 Larry Kissell as you noted Friday.

A couple of good local stories on Larry's campaign are higlighted in this post:
Larry Kissell, NC-08: Boots Still on the Ground

Posted by: BlueNation at October 2, 2006 09:55 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CO-05 - CQPolitics has downgraded the race from Safe Republican to Republican Favored.
Club For Growth (YUK!) candidate Lamborn-R has $70,000 cash on hand, challenger Jay Fawcett-D has $65,000. On the same link there is a roundup of other CD races in CO (our new fave State). Gee I can remember the Coors Beer period, kinda like OJ in FL. Plus, Lets get rid of Musgrave, please!

Given the FEC investigation re: CFG, are they even spending any money at this point? Legally???
http://www.cqpolitics.com/2006/10/colorado_roundup_5th_district.html#more
http://www.fawcett4congress.com/

Posted by: Predictor at October 2, 2006 10:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CQ Politics on NY-26 Reynolds-R, downgraded to Leans Republican from Safe R. Hope they keep their computer warm, LOL.

Posted by: Predictor at October 2, 2006 10:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

PA-07: Franklin & Marshall College Keystone Poll 9/29 (Conducted by Public Opinion Strategies 9/12-13)
Sestak 44%
Weldon 43%
MOE = 4.7%
http://www.delcotimes.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17261171&BRD=1675&PAG=461&dept_id=18171&rfi=6

Posted by: Predictor at October 3, 2006 12:36 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I'm watching two local races NC-8 (Kissell vs Hayes) and NC-11 (Schuler vs. Taylor). Kissell is doing pretty well but still has an up hill battle due to the lack of cash in comparison to Hayes and being in very red NC.

Schuler has been polling ahead of Taylor for a while now. Taylor is know for dirty pool so I hope Schuler can keep it up. Taylor's own ethics problems I think will end his career. There are a lot of those mountain folks who are unhappy with Russian Bank mess and support of CAFTA. Lots of these people were textile workers.

I'm also watching one back home. NY-26. Tom Reynolds was in danger before the Foley mess. Now he's neck deep in that. The Buffalo News reported this morning that Reynolds took a $100,000 campaign contribution from Foley earlier this year. This is not playing well up there. Reynolds is in big trouble. He's even called in Laura Bush to help fundraise in Clarence, NY. I wouldn't of thought he'd need help in Clarence (affluent suburb of Buffalo and his home town). There are lot of people up there like my sister who don't follow poltics closely and have heard about this. She couldn't have told you who he was two weeks ago. She wasn't going to vote, now she's going soley to vote against him.

Posted by: cltpie28 at October 3, 2006 09:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA-11: Finally a poll here (Pre-Scandal), Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (9/24-26) MOE = 4.9%
Mc Nerney 48%, Pombo 46%, Undecided 6%.
Bush is in Norcal today to campaigning for "Dirty Dick" & Doo-very-little - CA-04. According to the banner on the local news a "CA man has been arrested for threatening the Prez". Welcome to Norcal bubby. LOL.

Posted by: Predictor at October 3, 2006 12:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA-11 Voter Registration 9/2006 vs (9/2004):

Dem 37.49% (37.00%)
Rep 43.22% (45.62%)
DTS 15.63% (13.79%)
Other 3.66% (3.59%)

DTS = Declined To State.
Nice movement in our favor.

Posted by: Predictor at October 3, 2006 12:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WI-8

Excellent news in the Wisconsin 8th CD. The Wisconsin State Journal reports that Democratic nominee Dr. Steve KAGEN has a slight lead on GOP nominee Former Assembly Speaker Jon GARD of Sun Prairie but claims to live in Peshtigo. The 2nd consecutive poll giving KAGEN a slight lead. Both remain under 50% however.

But watching the campaigns it is the GARD campaign that appears to be sweating. They actually tried to play the class card, trotting out an ad calling KAGEN "Dr. Millionaire". And lately he has adopted the classice strategy of the underdog, claiming KAGEN is ducking debates.

But given they are neck and neck at the moment trends are brightening in Wisconsin for the Democrats.

Any rating that lists the Governor race as still a toss up is unaware. Shift it to leans Democrat bordering on Democrat favored. GREEN has no traction and the news is filled with his returning 465,000 of illegally shifted federal money to his gubernatorial campaign. Plus returning his FOLEY money, and his campaign for some strange reason allowed his DeLAY money to become an issue by not shedding it until DeLAY actually stepped down. When he is not talking about returning illegal or tainted contributions, he is usually attempting to fudge on the stem cell issue.

KOHL may get 70% of the vote against LORGE, unless Green nominee Rae VOGLER siphons off a tiny sliver on the left.

So state level trends are not aiding GARD. Plus KAGEN is a millionaire and can easily match GARD dollar for dollar spent from here on out. And last is KAGEN is from Appleton which normally turns in large GOP margins. KAGEN being a native of Appleton should reduce the margin the GOP typically enjoys in more non-nationalized election years.

Add it all up and it appears it is KAGEN's race to lose and he is poised to take the 8th CD.

And the FOLEY scandal might depress turnout in and around heavily Catholic Brown County which would hurt GARD more than KAGEN. If the FOLEY scandal has legs KAGEN might well surge rahter than sneak into office.

Posted by: walja at October 4, 2006 08:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

AZ SEN: Rocky Mountain Poll by Behaviour Research Center of Phoenix:
Kyl 40%, Pederson 34%: Likely Voters Kyl 45%, Pederson 36%. (Sorry no MOE, etc info)
http://phoenix.bizjournals.com/phoenix/stories/2006/10/02/daily39.html

Posted by: Predictor at October 5, 2006 12:19 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment