Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Tuesday Independent Expenditure Round-Up
Posted by James L.Highlights from Tuesday night's independent expenditures:
• KS-02: The DCCC is expanding yesterday's play in this district by $313,000 for both positive and negative TV ads boosting the campaign of Democratic challenger Nancy Boyda. That brings the total spent in this district by the DCCC to over $650k. The NRCC's response today? A minor $27k media buy. Watch what they'll do tomorrow, though.
• NY-25: Boom! The DCCC has just placed a $334k media buy in this district, with both positive ads for Dan Maffei and negative ads against incumbent Jim Walsh.
• IN-03: As promised yesterday, the NRCC has dropped another $75k in TV ads into this deep-red district to fend off Ft. Wayne city councilman and self-funder Tom Hayhurst from upsetting Republican Mark Souder. In total, the NRCC has spent just shy of $200k defending this seat. Definitely one of the most eyebrow-raising expenditures of the cycle.
• NC-08: Moveon.org has entered the fray on behalf of grassroots-powered Democrat Larry Kissell with a $128k media buy against Republican incumbent Robin Hayes. If there's one thing that Larry has lacked so far, it's the money to go toe-to-toe in an air war with self-funding gazillionaire Hayes. Definitely a well-placed hit by Moveon.
• OH-02: Emily's List is doing the heavy lifting here, with $52k worth of direct mail and radio ads both for Victoria Wulsin and against Jean Schmidt. This is on top of $31k spent yesterday on direct mail.
• Union activity: the AFSCME is up with new ads against Don Sherwood in PA-10 ($50k), NRCC chair Tom Reynolds in NY-26 ($40k), and Michelle Bachmann (R) in MN-06 ($50k). The SEIU has put $45k into CO-04 for radio ads in support of Angie Paccione, $76k into MN-01 for direct mail in support of Tim Walz, $68k for radio spots in support of Patty Wetterling, and $67k into NV-02 for radio spots in support of Jill Derby.
• And, of course, as David mentioned below, the DCCC has dropped a massive $1.12 million bomb on Charlie Bass in NH-02. Daaaayum, that's gonna hurt, Charlie.
Posted at 11:49 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
A Quick Note to Advertisers
Posted by DavidNYCThe Dan Seals campaign just locked up the top corner premium adstrip for the final week leading up to the election, but the #2 featured slot (which also holds only one ad) is still available. Traffic has been steadily increasing at the Swing State Project and I'm sure things will be hopping on election night, especially once we have user diaries in place. And, as always, the main adstrip is open.
Posted at 10:45 PM in Site News | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NH-02: DCCC Drops Da Bomb on Charlie Bass
Posted by DavidNYCTime for the Bassmaster to start cryin' into his beer:
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE1. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy2. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy3. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy4. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy5. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.62
Purpose: Media Buy6. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.63
Purpose: Media BuyTOTAL: $1,120,206.75
Yeah, you read that last line right. Please join with me in using the Dr. Evil voice when we say ONE MEEELYON DOLLARS! They come at us with $365K, we go at them with $1.1M - that's the Chicago way.
Anyhow, apart from just expressing my joy that the DCCC is beating up so heavily on Bass (couldn't happen to a nicer guy), I do want to make a broader point here. For those of you backing candidates in competitive districts where the DCCC has yet to make a move, don't fret. Sometimes waiting can really pay off. Had the DCCC made a splash in this district any earlier than now, the NRCC (or RNC) would have been sure to match them. It would have been a slogfest, and slogfests almost always favor the party with more money - ie, the Republicans.
Because the DCCC held its fire, the GOP didn't move in this district until late last week. And by playing our cards so close to our vest until the absolute last moment, that makes it a hell of a lot harder for the NRCC to counter the pocket queens we just revealed. I say "pocket queens" because the GOP may yet have a pair of aces face down on the table. But I doubt it. I feel pretty sure that this strategy of delay has paid off.
And this is especially true in redder districts. If the GOP matches Dem independent expenditures (IEs) in a red district, that's almost always going to hurt the Dem, net-net. That's because the redder the area, the more likely undecideds are to lean Republican. The way to avoid this is for Dems to spend in such a way that it comes as a total surprise to the Republicans, as in KS-02, so that they can't match, or at least, can't match in time. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC parachuted into some other under-the-radar districts before election day. So keep your eyes on those IE reports.
Posted at 10:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Happy Halloween!
Posted by James L.
That image is a jack-o-lantern made by DailyKos community member spurdy. Definitely an image that's sure to bring fear to the hearts of Republicans everywhere. This pin from a Larry Grant supporter is almost as good.
I hope you have a good time tonight!
Posted at 06:30 PM in Open Threads | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
The Ridiculous Kerry Flap
Posted by James L.So John Kerry stuck his foot in his mouth yesterday, botching a joke intended as an insult against the President. And now the GOP, desperate with the clock ticking down and trailing a few dozen points on the scoreboard, is despicably frothing at the mouth, accusing Kerry of slandering America's troops. They know better--they know that Kerry botched a joke, so they're doing all they can to keep the attention on him, rather than Bush's botching of an entire war.
If the GOP wants to play that game, fine. Remember this nugget, from an August 2004 Bush speech?
Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we.
Everyone had a big laugh over Bush's verbal gaffe two years ago. Did you see John Kerry and the Democratic Party issuing press releases calling on Bush to cease his treasonous war against the citizens of the United States of America? No, because to do so would be completely ridiculous. Just as ridiculous as the sanctimonious, dishonest drivel that Tony Snow and George Bush are trying to feed into the media narrative tonight.
No one took Bush's verbal stumble seriously in August 2004. And by the same measure, no one should hold Kerry's stumble to a higher standard.
Posted at 06:18 PM in 2006 Elections, Media | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 30, 2006
Monday Independent Expenditure Round-Up
Posted by James L.Lots of goodies to be found in Monday night's independent expenditure filings. Here are some highlights:
• The NRCC is playing it safe: they're going up on the air to defend Rick Renzi (AZ-01), Doug Lamborn (CO-05), Mark Souder (IN-03), Ron Lewis (KY-02), and Gil Gutknecht (MN-01). The defense of Souder is especially surprising, given the rock-ribbed Republican nature of the district, but an internal poll that they also paid for today might explain why. In total, they've spent nearly $125k defending Souder, with that figure increasing dramatically soon once the ad time is booked in the next day or so. When the NRCC has to put up precious dollars defending their hold on James Dobson's home turf, you know that we've done a good job expanding the playing field.
• Aside from their top-tier targets, the DCCC is stepping up to the plate with advertisements in NH-02 both in support of Paul Hodes and against Charile Bass, and in NY-25 with ads supporting Democratic challenger Dan Maffei. More ads are on the way against incumbents Cathy McMorris in WA-05 and Lewis in KY-02.
• MoveOn.org is launching a sneak attack on the suddenly vulnerable Republican Rep. Melissa Hart (PA-04) with a $240,000 ad buy and another $167,000 on attack ads and mailings against Thelma Drake (VA-02).
(Edit--I originally titled this diary "Tuesday Independent Expenditure Round-Up". I guess it's one of those weeks where I'm wishing we could just get on with it!)
Posted at 11:42 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Coming to the Swing State Project: User Diaries!
Posted by DavidNYCAn exciting bit of site news to share - in fact, the biggest change to the Swing State Project since its inception: We're going to be re-launching the site shortly on the SoapBlox platform, which means we'll now have user diaries! Just like on DailyKos and MyDD, all Swing State users will be able to share their thoughts in full-length format. We'll be moving the site over soon, once we work out the last few technical issues. But you can have a look at the preview site here:
The URL is only temporary, so no need to bookmark it - we'll be switching the domain names shortly. But feel free to sign up for a user ID and post a comment or diary. You'll find the "Recent Diaries" box in the right-hand column, just below the Campaign Engine ad and the box titled "Menu." (Just be warned - everything on the preview site will get wiped clean at some point soon.) If you run into any technical difficulties or see anything that looks out-of-whack, send us an e-mail.
I'd also like to thank Paul at SoapBlox for all his hard work in getting the new site to look almost exactly like the current version, down to the last pixel. And of course I'd like to thank my very good friend Ben at Media Mezcla for managing the transition on this end and for three years of tremendous service in maintaining and expanding this site. If you want a blog with diaries, Paul is definitely your guy. And if you want a sophisticated Movable Type site or a fantastic campaign software package, talk to Ben.
So go, have fun, play around and report back if need be. We'll post another announcement when we're ready to make the swap final.
Posted at 10:29 PM in Site News | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
New Majority Watch Polls
Posted by James L.Constituent Dynamics & RT Strategies just dumped 40 or so House race polls over at their Majority Watch project website. I'd like to crow about seemingly good news out of districts like IL-10, CO-04 and KY-03, but there are too many weird results here for me to trust these polls too much: Shays with a 9 point lead? Loebsack only two points behind Leach? Maffei up by 9 points?
A little too unlikely, but some of the other races polled feel right. Give it a look.
Posted at 06:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-02: Jean Schmidt's Self-Inflicted October Surprise
Posted by James L.I sometimes wonder if Jean Schmidt's entire political career has been a subvert effort to leave Republicans feeling punk'd in Ohio's 2nd district. Take yesterday, for example, when I read this nugget from a Cincinnati Enquirer article:
This doesn't happen every day: An incumbent member of Congress, in the middle of a re-election battle, says that storing nuclear waste shipments from around the world in her district may be a good idea.U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt does say that, and her support for studying the idea has become an issue in her re-election campaign, especially in rural Pike County, in the far eastern end of her sprawling Southern Ohio District, where the nuclear wastes would be stored.
"I'm not advocating for it one way or the other," Schmidt told The Enquirer. "I'm saying it is something we need to look at."
Schmidt said she sees potential to create "hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs" in an economically distressed part of the state, where double-digit unemployment rates are the norm.
Unreal. With just over a week left until election day, Schmidt drops a radioactive October surprise on herself. When was the last time that you heard a politician advocate for the possibility of bringing nuclear waste into their constituency? It's mind-boggling, especially since this district nestles the Ohio River.
Cincinnati is an expensive media market to air ads in, but if the DCCC wanted to finish a vulnerable Jean Schmidt off, this could be the silver bullet.
Posted at 03:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (18) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, October 29, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCMan, so we did it - we raised $1.5 million on the netroots page, meaning we took in over $300K on Friday alone. Wow!
Anyhow, only two more of these open threads until election day. See any interesting, late-breaking fundraising reports? Let us know.
Posted at 10:00 PM in Open Threads | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
ID-Gov, ID-01: Tossups
Posted by James L.A new Mason-Dixon poll confirms what many on the ground in Idaho have been predicting: Democrats are in a statistical dead heat in both the Governor's and 1st District races. I can't find the actual raw numbers just yet, so we'll have to make do with this:
Democrats haven't won a governor's race since 1990 or a seat in Congress since 1992, but a call for change nationally is reaching Idaho. Coupled with Republican candidates who inspire negative feelings, Democrats have a shot.In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democratic newspaper owner Jerry Brady by a single percentage point. Republican state Rep. Bill Sali has a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic businessman Larry Grant for the congressional seat that runs from West Boise north to Canada. In the race to oversee public schools, Democrat Jana Jones leads Republican Tom Luna by 3 percentage points.
All three are statistical dead heats. The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted for the Idaho Statesman and Today's 6, the local ABC affiliate. The margin of error statewide is plus or minus 4 percentage points; in the 1st District that rises to 6 percentage points. Likely voters were polled last week by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C. (emphasis added)
I won't keep it a secret: what's going on in Idaho is my favorite story of this cycle. Even in the reddest of red America, the GOP's lurch towards extremism coupled with a Democratic renaissance at the grassroots level has the potential to result in several major upsets this year:
"At this point in a typical campaign, Idaho Democrats are dispirited and looking for moral victories," said Jim Weatherby, a political scientist who has overseen polling at Boise State University. "This time, it looks like they may actually pull off some major victories."In follow-up interviews with 42 polled voters, the Statesman learned they want change largely because of disapproval of President Bush and the war in Iraq.
Idaho GOP Chairman Kirk Sullivan said the national mood is hurting Republicans in the reddest of states. "Idaho has been rather immune to the attitude and mood of the public across the nation," he said. "But this time, based on the amount of coverage that appears to be anti-Bush and anti-war, I believe that attitude has invaded Idaho," he said.
A blue Idaho would fit perfectly right beside a blue Montana, don't you think?
Posted at 11:33 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 28, 2006
KS-02: DCCC Launches a Surprise Intervention
Posted by James L.From the AP:
House Democrats launched a surprise television attack against Rep. Jim Ryun of Kansas on Friday night, hoping to increase the number of competitive races in the battle for control of Congress.Ryun “voted against a $1,500 combat bonus for our troops, but voted to give himself a huge pay raise — twice,” the ad says of the five-term lawmaker.
It praises his rival, Nancy Boyda, as “honest and independent — the right change for Kansas.”
The district, centered on Topeka, has been in Republican hands since 1995. The race had not generally been described by strategists in either party as a competitive one, and the commercial does not mention that Boyda is a Democrat.
Aside from some internal polling showing a tight race that some questioned, KS-02 was definitely not a race on the radar screen this cycle. But with Sebelius on the top of the ticket and Ryan performing at his weakest in 2004, perhaps the DCCC is sensing some vulnerability here. If I recall correctly, Chuck Todd of the National Journal called this a seat that could very well flip in a wave, anti-incumbent year. If the D-trip is making a last-minute intervention here, it might bode well for the chances of other 2nd and 3rd tier candidates receiving an unexpected boost.
Keep your eyes peeled for more last-week surprises.
Update: And it's not chump change, either: the DCCC is putting over $300,000 into this district, on ads both attacking Ryun and boosting Boyda. They're also spending nearly $200k on attack ads against Republican Rep. Ron Lewis (KY-02), which is also a bit eyebrow-raising.
Posted at 04:28 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Kansas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Vote Vets Throws Down in Four Races
Posted by James L.By now you may have seen one of these new ads by VoteVets PAC, running against Republican congressmen Jon Porter (NV-03), John Doolittle (CA-04), Gil Gutknecht (MN-01) and John Sweeney (NY-20):
In terms of advertising effectiveness, VoteVets is giving more bang for the buck than any other PAC or party committee this year. Their much-hyped body armor ads against Senators Talent, Burns, Allen and Santorum were impaired only by their limited budgets: a $30k-$50k media buy doesn't exactly dominate the airwaves, especially in a state as large as Pennsylvania or Virginia. For this new series of ads, however, VoteVets has scored the funding to make big, serious buys that will have an impact in each of these districts:
• $98k against Gutknecht (MN-01)
• $136k against Sweeney (NY-20)
• $237k against Porter (NV-03)
As I understand it, the John Doolittle ad will be a narrower cable buy, but even still, it should penetrate deeper in a House race than the body armor ads did with limited statewide purchases in the Senate races.
Posted at 03:25 AM in 2006 Elections - House, California, Minnesota, Nevada, New York | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, October 27, 2006
Final Netroots Push: The $100,000 Challenge
Posted by DavidNYCLATE UPDATE: Well, as I'm sure you've seen, we've blown way past $100,000 raised today. In fact, we've hauled in $275,000! We're also incredibly close to $1.5 million raised on the page, total. Who will help put us over the top?
Today, Friday, is the last best day to donate to your favorite candidates. Here's why: Over the weekend, campaigns will make their final choices about where to spend money - ad buys, mailers, get-out-the-vote efforts, etc. After that point, almost all major spending decisions will be complete. That makes it hard to effectively spend money received during the last week of the campaign. Final-week contributions are appreciated, sure, but cash received by today is a lot more valuable.
That's why Swing State, Daily Kos and MyDD are doing one final fundraising push for the netroots page. The goal is as simple as can be: We want to raise $100,000 for the entire page today. And this time, we're gonna ask everyone to dig as deep as possible. At earlier points in the cycle, campaigns can use small-dollar donations to help build their lists so that they can seek more donations in the future. Right now, though, what Democrats across the country need is just cold cash. After today, you should volunteer your time. But today is the day to part with your hard-earned bucks.
All week long, we've been flogging incumbent Democrats, begging them to give as part the Use It Or Lose It campaign. But we have to put our money where our mouths are, too. And that's exactly what I'm going to do.
I just gave $500 to the Paul Hodes campaign. My student loans ran out in May, and while I've recently started work, I haven't been paid yet. I've been living off a combination of credit cards and wedding gifts for months now. But I can't afford not to give - who among us can? You don't need me to tell you that what's at stake right now is just so unbelievably important.
But there are more concrete, immediate reasons: The NRCC just announced that it would drop $366,000 worth of negative ads into this race. To put that into perspective, this is roughly a third of what Paul Hodes has raised throughout the campaign, all getting dumped into the district overnight. My $500 is a proverbial drop in the bucket compared to that, but if enough of us declare "Fuck it! We've had enough! We're going to give whatever we can!" then we'll be able to fight back. I know it.
And it's not just Hodes under assault. For all the GOP's alleged money woes, they've always outraised us and always will. Democrats all across the country are now on the receiving end of the Republican Party's malignant Wurlitzer, and it won't let up until the polls close. Every member of our party needs our help. Whether you give to the netroots candidates or someone else today, just please give.
Are you with me? Can we raise $100,000 today? Yeah? Well, then, let's do this thing!!!
UPDATE (James L.): Whoa, it looks like $100,000 in one day is not much of a challenge for the netroots community. You guys have raised over $210,000 so far, and the day's not nearly done yet. Markos is right: let's blow the roof off of Actblue. Let's bring our total haul to $1.5 million. It's only a matter of raising $100k more tonight. I know our community can do this. Let's send our netroots candidates off into their final week in style--with enough resources to compete.
And if you've already donated, please take the next logical step: help get out the vote! Do More Than Vote is a great resource full of links to many different ways you can help from all corners of the country. You can also host or attend a pre-Halloween phone party coordinated by Moveon.org, or sign up for Moveon's Call for Change program targeting Democratic-leaning voters. Remember: this is going to be a base turnout election. There's no need to waste time trying to convince reluctant fence-sitters to switch to the Democratic column--all we have to do is light a fire under the asses of Democrats and Democratic-leaners who haven't given the election much thought this year. Moveon.org is making it easy to help, from anywhere in the country. Like David says, let's do this thing.
Posted at 04:45 PM in 2006 Elections, Fundraising, Netroots | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
DCCC Turns Up the Volume: Red to Blue Expanded by 17
Posted by James L.The DCCC has just launched a fourth wave of their Red to Blue program:
Ellen Simon (AZ-01)
Charlie Brown (CA-04)
Jerry McNerney (CA-11)
Francine Busby (CA-50)
Jay Fawcett (CO-05)
Larry Grant (ID-01)
John Yarmuth (KY-03)
Tim Walz (MN-01)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Dave Mejias (NY-03)
John Hall (NY-19)
Jack Davis (NY-26)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Victoria Wulsin (OH-02)
Jason Altmire (PA-04)
Judy Feder (VA-10)
Peter Goldmark (WA-05)
Netroots candidates are in bold. Wow, can you believe it? We've gotten to the point that the question is no longer which Netroots candidates are receiving DCCC support, but which candidates are not (and, by my count, that number is 2 3). Now, the main strength of a Red to Blue endorsement lies with the increased level of fundraising that comes with it. It's pretty late in the game for an endorsement like this to give these candidates a huge assist, but it should likely trigger some major donors and allied PACs to get shaking today. It's also more likely that the DCCC will keep some of these races in mind as it decides where to channel its remaining resources this weekend. And lastly, these endorsements are a huge validation to all of these candidates and volunteers who have delivered surprisingly competitive races for the Democratic Party this cycle. This is what momentum looks like, people.
Posted at 04:21 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
TX-22: Divorced From Reality
Posted by James L.From a Roll Call article (subscription-only):
The National Republican Congressional Committee has now spent more than $1.1 million on the write-in campaign being waged by Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), indicating that the GOP is making a definite play to hold the 22nd district seat. [...]"Voters in the wealthy Houston suburbs are sophisticated voters, and our efforts are to make sure they don't get duped by a liberal Democrat who is posing as a conservative," a Republican strategist said Wednesday.
I'm so glad to see that the NRCC is flushing $1.1 million dollars down the tubes in a quixotic attempt to hold this seat. That's $1.1 million dollars that won't be used to defend precarious Republican holds over purplish seats like ID-01, CA-04, and WY-AL. Steven Benen at Midterm Madness sums the situation up a bit more realistically for the GOP:
Of course, GOP voters have to be more than "sophisticated," they also have to be patient enough to write in a very long name -- 20 characters, including spaces -- on an eSlate electronic voting machine, which happens to lack a keyboard.
Keep reaching for that rainbow, NRCC.
Posted at 02:27 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
October Fundraising Reports
Posted by James L.If you want to check up on how your favorite candidate is doing in the fundraising game for the crucial final stretch, Tray.com has all of the October 1-18 FEC filings catalogued. Here are a few notable numbers from the first 18 days of October:
ID-01: Larry Grant (D) - $150k raised, $65k Cash-on-Hand; Bill Sali (R) - $55k raised, $43k CoH
CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D) - $417k raised, $330k CoH; Richard Pombo (R) - $351k raised, $1.05m CoH
NC-08: Larry Kissell (D) - $135k raised, $35 CoH (that's not a typo); Robin Hayes (R) - $149k raised, $794k CoH
NH-02: Paul Hodes (D) - $160k raised, $56k CoH; Charile Bass (R) - $83k raised, $332k CoH
CA-04: Charlie Brown (D) - $416k raised, $382k CoH; John Doolittle (R) - $207k raised, $712k CoH
OH-12: Bob Shamansky (D) - $424k raised, $629k CoH; Pat Tiberi (R) - $152k raised, $869k CoH
CO-05: Jay Fawcett (D) - $132k raised, $93k CoH; Doug Lamborn (R) - $84k raised, $44k CoH
NE-03: Scott Kleeb (D) - $105k raised, $191k CoH; Adrian Smith (R) - $90k raised, $185k CoH
NY-29: Eric Massa (D) - $171k raised, $341k CoH; Randy Kuhl (R) - $66k raised, $232k CoH
WY-AL: Gary Trauner (D) - $94k raised, $190k CoH; Barbara Cubin (R) - $151k raised, $273k CoH
NY-19: John Hall (D) - $226k raised, $132k CoH; Sue Kelly (R) - $121k raised, $990k CoH
AZ-01: Ellen Simon (D) - $335k raised, $67k CoH; Rick Renzi (R) - $236k raised, $674k CoH
IL-14: John Laesch (D) - $99k raised, $82k CoH; Dennis Hastert (R) - $136k raised, $454k CoH
There's plenty more where that came from. Like David says above, the netroots candidates can really use some love right now to give them an extra boost for that final week.
Posted at 01:24 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Fundraising | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 26, 2006
DCCC Hones in on New York: Mejias, Hall, Davis, and Massa Added to Red to Blue
Posted by James L.Perhaps sensing a once in a generation opportunity to paint as many as seven Republican districts in New York blue this cycle, the DCCC has just added Dave Mejias (NY-03), John Hall (NY-19), Jack Davis (NY-26), and Eric Massa (NY-29) to the Red to Blue program (see Jesse Lee's posts here and here). With the election a week and a half away, this would've been more significant had it been announced a few weeks ago, but hopefully it should lend these four guys an extra surge against their embattled opponents. With Sue Kelly (NY-19) running away from the local media (and taking some absolutely blistering criticism for it), Peter King (NY-03) labelling the AARP and NAACP "extremist organizations", Tom Reynolds reeling from his role in the Mark Foley cover-up, and Randy Kuhl (NY-29), um, being his crazy self, the time is ripe to turn New York state solidly blue.
Posted at 04:28 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
The Great Swing State Project Predictions Contest is Now Closed!
Posted by DavidNYC(That's it, folks! The contest officially closed at 3am Pacific today. You're welcome to still contribute predictions, but you'll be playing for pride, not prizes!)
(Bumped! If you have any last-minute revisions to your entries, you've got a few more hours to post them!)
Go here and offer your predictions in the Great Swing State Project Pedictions Contest! Polls close at 3am Eastern, midnight Pacific Tuesday night. And we promise prizes to the winners! I think we'll be doling out some SSP t-shirts and beer steins. So get predictin'!
(Note: You can't post comments on this thread. You have to go to the earlier post. And only post your predictions on that thread - no e-mails, please.)
Posted at 10:00 PM in 2006 Elections | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
IN-03: What's Happening Here?
Posted by James L.Not so long ago, the DCCC added Tom Hayhurst, the Democratic longshot challenger to Republican Mark Souder in Indiana's 3rd district to its list of Emerging Races. At the time, I was skeptical, being inclined to believe that the move was merely a recognition of Hayhurst's fairly good fundraising more than anything else. Hayhurst has raised $592k (of which $200k came from his own pockets) as of September 30th, nearly doubling what the lackadaisical Souder has raised this cycle. But in a district that delivered 68% of its vote to Bush two years ago, I figured his inclusion was meant more as a pat on the back rather than an indication that this seat was seriously in play.
I might have to change my mind, though, after I read this Hotline piece, detailing the NRCC's decision to buy $72,000 worth of ad time for Souder. That's not a large amount, but at the same time, it shouldn't be necessary for the NRCC to buy any ad time at all in a district this reliably Republican.
The NRCC is fanning their money around wide. Mighty wide, it seems, for a piece of it to end up defending their hold on IN-03.
PS: For a taste of what Hayhurst is spending his money on, here's one of his campaign commercials. It's pretty good.
Posted at 06:56 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Indiana | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NRCC/NRSC Target List Leaked?
Posted by James L.Chris Bowers has managed to score a stunning leak from the GOP: a seemingly full list (although it looks about a week out of date) of seats that the NRSC and NRCC are defending and targeting this cycle, complete with internal "rankings" of the likelihood of these seats changing hands.
The preliminary findings: they've written off Conrad Burns and Michael Steele in the Senate, and Graf, Sekula-Gibs, Padgett and Sherwood in the House, while also identifying 2 other Senate seats and 10 other House seats as leaning towards Democratic control.
Check it out; it's well worth a look. One of the most eye-opening things is that the NRCC is listing OH-02 as a toss-up (a race that the DCCC has yet to intervene in, although the NRCC mysteriously lists it as a race with DCCC ads, according to Bowers' chart).
Update: On second thought, doesn't this thing seem like it's a pile of bullshit? The DCCC is NOT running ads against Walsh, Schmidt, Bass, Porter, or Schmidt, contrary to what this list is telling you. There is no way the NRCC could be that sloppy.
Posted at 05:45 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-02: Going for the Jugular
Posted by James L.I think that about sums it up. On the web: Dr. Vic Wulsin for Congress
Posted at 04:53 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 23, 2006
WY-AL: Barbara Cubin is Despicable
Posted by DavidNYCThe verbal sparring between two candidates for Wyoming's lone U.S. House seat didn't end when the televised debate ended Sunday evening.Immediately after the lights and cameras shut down, incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin walked to Libertarian candidate Thomas Rankin, who had criticized her for receiving contributions from former House Speaker Tom Delay, R-Texas.
"'If you weren't sitting in that chair, I'd slap you across the face,'" Cubin told Rankin, he said Monday.
Rankin suffers from multiple sclerosis. "That chair" is the wheelchair he uses. I'm just in disbelief.
Barbara Cubin is a despicable, disgusting human being - and I think I'm being too polite. I sure as hell hope netroots candidate Gary Trauner sends her into early retirement next month.
(Via the DCCC.)
Posted at 11:07 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Wyoming | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Action Alert: Use It or Lose It
Posted by DavidNYCJust go here and do what Chris Bowers says: Call these ultra-safe Democrats and (politely) ask them to give 30% of their cash-on-hand to competitive races or party committees. Thanks to a campaign finance loophole, these guys are are the best-situated to drive large sums where they are needed most in the final two weeks of the election season.
I think the best talking point you can use is that any Dems who really give a lot now will be remembered glowingly by the grassroots in the future. Call `em now.
Posted at 10:35 PM in 2006 Elections, Democrats, Fundraising | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
The Great Swing State Project Prediction Contest
Posted by James L.(Bumped!)
In honor of Swing State Project's third birthday, David and I have come up with a fun party game that we can all get involved in: an electoral prediction contest! We've handpicked twelve hot House and Senate races from all over the country (and one Gubernatorial race as the tiebreaker) for you to mull over and submit your predictions. The rules are simple: Only one entry per person will be accepted (so if you post multiple revisions, we're only going to look at your last post), submitted as a comment on this thread (NO e-mails). Submissions will be accepted until midnight Pacific on Tuesday, October 24. There will be prizes involved (nothing fancy, though, except maybe a nice looking SSP t-shirt...).
Scores will be based on the lowest aggregate margin of error. For example, if you predicted the MT-Sen race as Burns 55, Tester 45 (R+10) and the result on November 7 was Tester 55, Burns 45 (D+10), your margin of error would be 20 points, as 20 represents the gap between D+10 and R+10. If, on the other hand, you predicted Tester 60, Burns 40 (D+20), your margin of error would be 10 points. Clear as mud? To reiterate, the key here is to see how close the gap between Democratic and Republican candidates in your predictions is to the gap between Democratic and Republican candidates on election day. Several of these races have fringe indie candidacies, but there's no need to make predictions for third party candidates (except for Lieberman), as we're measuring the gap between the Democrats and Republicans, not how close your numbers are to the actual percentages.
Well, that was a mouthful. Let's get on with it! Here are the 12+1 races that David and I have selected. Put the valuable knowledge that you have gained from your daily readership of Swing State Project to the test! (Haha.)
MT-Sen: Tester (D) v. Burns (R)
CT-Sen: Lamont (D) v. Lieberman (CfL)
TN-Sen (OPEN): Ford (D) v. Corker (R)
PA-06: Murphy (D) v. Gerlach (R)
FL-22: Klein (D) v. Shaw (R)
NM-01: Madrid (D) v. Wilson (R)
NH-02: Hodes (D) v. Bass (R)
ID-01 (OPEN): Grant (D) v. Sali (R)
MN-01: Walz (D) v. Gutknecht (R)
OH-12: Shamansky (D) v. Tiberi (R)
CA-04: Brown (D) v. Doolittle (R)
NE-03 (OPEN): Kleeb (D) v. Smith (R)And the tiebreaker:
TX-Gov: Perry (R) v. Bell (D) v. Kinky (I) v. Strayhorn (I)
TX-Gov is a special case, so we're not going to measure the R/D gap, but rather how close your predictions are to the actual election day vote distribution.
Submit your predictions soon! You have until 12pm Pacific on the night of Tuesday, October 24 to submit your predictions. If you are interested in claiming a prize, please include your e-mail address with your submission. If you don't want to do that, check again once the contest is over (i.e., after November 7th), when we will post a list of winners. I'm really looking forward to seeing all of your predictions.
Posted at 10:30 PM in 2006 Elections | Comments (80) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCTwo weeks. Can you believe it? After all this waiting - just two more weeks.
Be sure to post your guesses in The Great Swing State Project Prediction Contest!
UPDATE: Mike Callaghan (WV-02), a candidate I've long had my eye on, has been added to the DCCC's emerging races list. Hopefully there's still enough time for this to make a difference. With a big enough wave, who knows? Maybe even Shelly Capito might get washed out.
Posted at 10:00 PM in Open Threads | Comments (26) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, October 22, 2006
Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?
Posted by DavidNYCEd Fitzgerald, that's who. In 2004, Ed (over at his blog Unfutz) did heroic work tracking all the presidential election prognosticators - and there were quite a few. His meta-predictions were invaluable, so I'm glad to see he's back in the game with congressional races this year. Take a look at this gorgeous chart:
For a fuller explanation - as well as some interesting graphs of historical projection data - check out Ed's first post in this series.
In the same vein, Superribbie has a new roundup of professional House race analysts' ratings here.
Posted at 02:59 PM in 2006 Elections | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 21, 2006
ID-01: Club For Growth Bails Out Endangered Sali
Posted by James L.Man oh man; I love it when an extremist Republican scheme backfires, especially when we're talking about the dogmatic anti-government agenda of the Club For Growth. Knowing that their extremist politics could only stand the chance of finding recognition in the most conservative of districts, the Club For Growth targeted primaries in solid Republican districts like NV-02 (R+7.5), NE-03 (R+23.6), and CO-05 (R+15.7), backing the most rigidly conservative and anti-government candidates they could find. The only problem, though, is that the Club has picked less than top-shelf candidates to act as their ideological flag-bearers in deep Republican territory. In Idaho's 1st district, as everyone knows by now, CFG members funneled $350k to onesuch flawed candidate, state Rep. Bill Sali, and spent an additional $133k on independent expenditure ads to help him eke out an underwhelming 26% victory in a crowded Republican primary back in May.
The story was supposed to end there. The Republican primary was supposed to be the real election, given that this district delivered nearly 70% of its vote to Bush in 2004. But an energetic and committed core of local Democratic activists and organizers were not willing to let an embarrassment like Sali become their next voice in Washington, and rallied around the upstart candidacy of Larry Grant, a respected local business leader. (The netroots entered the fray in August.) And with Sali's divisive and unproductive reputation preceding him, Sali has failed to gain much traction.
With several polls showing Grant nipping at Sali's heels, the NRCC has dumped almost $200k into this state in order to prevent a Democratic rout in Idaho, according to the latest FEC filings. And they're not done yet: the Club For Growth has scurried back into the fray, pumping in an emergency transfusion of $180k for oppositional TV ads against Grant earlier today. And knowing the Club For Growth, they're going to be leaving their kid gloves at home. Grant is within striking distance of costing them a crucial ally in the House, and they're not happy about it.
The Republican scramble to defend this GOP bastion is nothing short of remarkable in a district this red, but Grant is in danger of having his message swamped out by the NRCC and the Club For Growth. If I were running expenditures at the DCCC, I wouldn't pass this opportunity up. A candidate as bad as Sali is just too rare of an opportunity to let slip away. All the DCCC has to do is run an ad or two featuring Republican testimonials of Sali. Here are a few choice examples:
• "That idiot is just an absolute idiot. He doesn’t have one ounce of empathy in his whole fricking body." (GOP Speaker of the Idaho House, Bruce Newcomb)
• "I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress." (GOP Canyon County commissioner Robert Vasquez).
Alternately, one could just quote Sali himself:
• "With deep thinking and memory recall, I start getting real bad brain fade, and definitely some speech problems," placed side by side with his claim that "[for] much of the time in the Legislature, critical-thinking skills are not necessarily needed."
Bill Sali: his entire political career is a negative advertisement waiting to be written.
UPDATE: Whoa! It looks like Larry is two steps ahead of me. Check out this blistering attack ad hosted by the DCCC here. It hits on everything I wanted to see.
Posted at 07:55 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NY-03, NY-19: New York Times Endorses Mejias & Hall
Posted by DavidNYCCognizant of all the ususal disclaimers about endorsements, let me just say that this is a nice bit of news for both Dave Mejias and John Hall. The Times often likes to endorse Republican incumbents for irritating, silly reasons (seniority, "thoughtfulness," etc.), so it's nice to see they've taken the right side in both of these races. Because the Times produces separate local editions for both Westchester and Long Island, these endorsements should help boost both candidates' name rec.
No links yet, but some excerpts from each below the fold.
Mejias:
Mr. Mejias is one of the few bright bulbs in the low-watt Nassau Legislature. He helped to create a bill of rights for domestic workers in Nassau, requiring that employers give them written statement of their rights under federal and state law. He has a good environmental record, particularly in efforts to preserve open space, and has been an important ally of County Executive Thomas Suozzi in restoring fiscal discipline to Nassau government. He promises to be a refreshing change in the Third District, and we endorse him.
Hall:
The New York Times has endorsed John Hall for US Congress in the 19th District and calls him “a lawmaker of energy, steady conviction and clear principles” and “the obvious choice” in an editorial that will be published in the paper’s Westchester section tomorrow, Sunday, October 22.The 500-plus word editorial endorsement in the Times notes that Hall, who has been “politically engaged for decades,” emerged from the Democratic primary race with “a resounding victory,” thanks to an “ambitious and coherent” platform that “calls for universal health coverage, a return to fiscal discipline and a full-bore national effort to achieve energy independence.”
Posted at 04:43 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, October 20, 2006
MO-Sen: Michael J. Fox's Powerful Message
Posted by James L.It's not difficult to imagine the political fatigue of Missourians after months of negative ads cluttering the airwaves, but it's hard not to find a message like this resonant.
You can help Claire here.
Posted at 06:14 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Missouri | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 19, 2006
NH-02: My Favorite Mailer This Year
Posted by DavidNYCI'm an incredibly tough critic when it comes to humor. But this Hodes mailer is both incredibly well done and very clever. It's easily my favorite piece of snail mail this election:
Totally excellent. I've posted the second page of the flyer below the fold. And follow these links to find larger versions of the front and back.
Posted at 11:25 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
AZ-05: Hayworth Surrogate to Jews: "No wonder there are anti-Semites"
Posted by DavidNYCYou won't believe what two JD Hayworth surrogates said to (and about) Jews - while filling in for their candidate at an event at a synagogue:
Unable to defend his repeated praise of Henry Ford's anti-Semitic "Americanization" program, U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth bailed on a scheduled campaign appearance Tuesday evening only to send in his place surrogates who repeatedly lectured the audience at Temple Beth Israel in Scottsdale and proclaimed that Hayworth "is a more observant Jew" than those present. [Source: Arizona Republic, Oct. 17, 2006]The comment by Jonathan Tratt, a spokesman for the Hayworth campaign, drew loud and angry boos and caused nearly three-quarters of the crowd of more than 200 to walk out in disgust. After the walkout, another Hayworth surrogate, Irit Tratt, stood on the Temple's bimah as she told members of the audience who gathered to ask questions, "No wonder there are anti-Semites."
I'm just speechless.
(Via the DCCC.)
Posted at 10:34 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
House and Senate Races Round-up: Cash, Ratings Changes, Polls & More!
Posted by James L.So much news has been buzzing around this week, and boy, has it ever been difficult to restrain myself and study for my midterms while the walls of Fortress GOP come tumbling down. But now that I have a little spare time, let's take a look at recent developments:
• MT-Sen: Harry Reid has promised Jon Tester a seat on the Appropriations Committee should he defeat Conrad Burns this November. Tester has promised to make sure that Montana gets its fair share of earmarks, while at the same time ensuring that the process receives "full public scrutiny". Seems like it could be a tough balancing act for most unprincipled politicians, but something about Jon Tester feels different. This development should help boost his argument that Montana has nothing to lose by embracing change this year.
• Party committee fundraising receipts are in for the month of September: the DCCC raised $14.4m and entered October with $36m cash-on-hand. The DSCC raised $13.6m and had $23m CoH as the month began. The DNC raised $5.6m in September (with an additional $1m coming in during the last two days, reportedly) and entered October with $8.6m CoH. The DNC has taken out a loan in the ballpark of $5m to $10m to help aid the DSCC's efforts to run the table in the Senate (a very wise strategy), and also expects to spend $25m on "election day activities".
Meanwhile, the NRCC raised $12m in September, and ended the month with $40m CoH. The NRSC raised an underwhelming $5.1m and trailed the DSCC in CoH as well, with $12m in the bank. The RNC had a formidable $26m CoH, and they plan to push a large chunk of that money into shoring up their Senate seats (a job that the NRSC is haplessly underperforming at).
The DCCC has made some noises about taking out a large loan and pumping money into 2nd tier districts, but their most recent expenditure--$12 million--has mostly been funneled to top-tier targets. The clock is ticking on the chance to expand the battlefield. In 2004, the DCCC took out a loan to help fund for its defense of redistricted incumbents in Texas (a largely futile task, save for the defense of Chet Edwards), and I see no reason not to turn the tables around and launch a salvo deep into 2nd and 3rd tier territory. I'm sure that the DCCC has more planned--a lot more--but the exact scope is not yet clear.
• Ratings changes galore! Charlie Cook (10/18):
ID-Gov (OPEN): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
RI-Gov (Carcieri): Lean Republican to Toss Up
TX-Gov (Perry): Solid Republican to Likely RepublicanHOUSE RATINGS CHANGE:
AZ-01 (Renzi): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-50 (Bilbray): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
ID-01 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
KS-02 (Ryun): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MN-01 (Gutknecht): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CQ Politics (in the last 7 days):
WA-08 (Reichert): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
PA-04 (Hart): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
NE-03 (OPEN): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
MN-01 (Gutknecht): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
PA-07 (Weldon): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
ID-01 (OPEN): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
CO-Gov (OPEN): No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
RI-Sen (Chafee): No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
NM-01 (Wilson): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
OH-15 (Pryce): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
NC-11 (Taylor): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
MA-Gov (Open): No Clear Favorite to Democrat Favored
• NY-26: From the seemingly Bad News Dept., SUSA has a new poll showing Tom Reynolds back on top of Jack Davis, by a 49-46 margin. That's still pretty hairy, and SUSA notes that a phone disruption actually caused this poll to undersample a crucial Democratic area that favored Davis by 11 points, indicating that this race is even tighter than these numbers suggest. I'd wait for another poll (which SUSA promises shortly) before making too many assumptions. But one assumption that would be unhealthy for us to make is that Tom Reynolds' political career is over.
• KY-03: From the Great News Dept., SUSA has another poll showing Democratic challenger John Yarmuth running neck-and-neck with entrenched Republican incumbent Anne Northup (likely voters, 9/29 results in parens):
John Yarmuth (D): 48 (44)
Anne Northup (R-Inc.): 47 (50)
MoE: ±4.3%
Lots of people wrote Yarmuth off, including me, given Northup's solid cred as a battle-tested, effective campaigner. It looks like we could end up with a big egg on our faces, though. (One guy who never did, however, is the Bluegrass Report's Mark Nickolas.) From a distance, Northup's campaign doesn't seem to be engaging Yarmuth effectively, and the Democratic lean of Louisville is putting her at serious risk this year. Northup still has an insane amount of resources to spend on apocalyptic TV ads, and it might help her seal the deal. Or it may not. If you're in the area, Get Out The Vote. This election is about picking up as much low-hanging fruit as possible--it's about base motivation. The Republicans appear to be ready for the challenge. How about the Democrats? It's up to you to write that story.
Posted at 05:48 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Happy Third Birthday, Swing State Project
Posted by DavidNYCToday is, believe it or not, the third birthday of the Swing State Project, which began three years ago as a humble diary on DailyKos. Since then, this site has featured several guest posters who have risen to prominence in the blogosphere, like Chris Bowers & Tim Tagaris; raised tens of thousands of dollars for numerous Democratic candidates; and has led the way on candidacies like Paul Hackett's in the OH-02 special last year and Paul Hodes's in NH-02 this year.
Most importantly, what's kept this site going are the readers and commenters. Indeed, we've had an astounding 2.75 million visitors since we began publishing this site. I personally have learned so much from following the discussions here and I look forward to reading the comments every day. So a huge thank you to everyone who has made Swing State a huge success over the years. My hat is off to all of you!
Posted at 09:01 AM in Site News | Comments (10) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
It's Monkey Mail Time
Posted by DavidNYCJust thought I'd share an amusing bit of monkey mail that landed in my inbox overnight (original formatting preserved):
It creeps you out about Curt Weldon. No if you even had anything that resembled a brain in your head. Sestak being supported heavily by moveon.org and crew and of course George Soros is the creepy thing.
Your all over Weldon for talking about moon. But it tells us where you come from. Doesn't bother you that Soros was a large backer of the Lynne Stewart defense fund. Michael Moore just a total nut. What should creep you out the most is looking at yourself in a mirror.
Ah, I love the smell of lunatic desperation in the morning. Smells like victory.
Posted at 08:47 AM in Misc. | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
TX-17: NRCC Retreats, Circles the Wagons in... Idaho?
Posted by James L.Another quick 'n' dirty update (I've got a major midterm tomorrow): from the indispensable Burnt Orange Report comes word of a full-scale retreat by the National Republican Campaign Committee in TX-17, home of the perennially-targeted Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards:
According to five television stations in the DFW market, the NRCC on Monday canceled its planned television ad buy on behalf of Taylor. The cancelled Taylor buy was valued at over $1.5 million and was scheduled to run in the last two weeks of the campaign.
One by one, Republicans are cutting the lifelines of even their most top-tier challengers, and focusing on precarious seats in purplish states like... Idaho. Yes, Idaho, home of one of the most surprisingly competitive congressional races this cycle:
At the same time, the National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday began buying tens of thousands of dollars of television airtime across the district to run a last-minute advertising blitz beginning today, broadcasters said. Democratic candidate Larry Grant said Idaho airwaves will be flooded with attack ads targeting him because Republicans are panicking.“Our understanding is the NRCC has produced a negative ad, and they bought almost $400,000 to run these ads against me,” Grant said. “I think most folks are going to understand they are in trouble.”
$400,000 on a district that delivered 70% of its vote for Bush in 2004. Chew on that one. With the Republicans losing confidence in Van Taylor's campaign in TX-17 (a district that is just as Republican as ID-01), how often do we see the NRCC nervous about their ability to win in districts that have delivered 70% of their vote to Bush?
For just a taste of how awful Idaho Republican candidate Bill Sali is as a politician, check out his statement from four years ago on his mental affliction that he curiously refers to as "brain fade".
Posted at 04:24 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho, Texas | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 16, 2006
AZ-05, CA-50, MN-02, NM-01: SUSA Shows Huge Movement for Democratic Challengers
Posted by James L.Survey USA has four hot new polls out today, each showing a signficant bump for Democratic challengers:
AZ-05: Mitchell (D) 45, Hayworth (R) 48
CA-50: Busby (D) 46, Bilbray (R) 49
MN-02: Rowley (DFL) 42, Kline (R) 50
NM-01: Madrid (D) 53, Wilson (R) 45
I'd put up trendlines, etc, but I'm pressed for time. Here's the money quote, though:
In all four of these districts, we observe significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points. Two possible explanations for this shift are:1) Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2) Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.
It is unclear at this time which of these explanations is more significant, or how persistent the shift will be. But the consistency of the pattern suggests that the movement in these 4 contests may be driven by a nationwide trend affecting all House races, rather than by factors specific to the individual districts.
How crazy would it be if an underfunded, unnoticed Busby managed to knock out Bilbray the second time around? While I still think it's quite unlikely, with numbers like these, it all depends on base motivation. You go, girl!
Posted at 09:05 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Arizona, California, Minnesota, New Mexico | Comments (7) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-Sen: Schlesinger (R) Hits it Out of the Park
Posted by James L.Or, at least, that's what I've been hearing about today's three-way debate between Ned Lamont, Joe Lieberman and Republican stalwart Alan Schlesinger. I was in class, but all of the post-debate reports I've read have said that Schlesinger projected intelligent, principled conservative ideas, genuine emotion, and spirit. If I were Joe Lieberman, I'd start getting nervous about chunks of Republicans returning home to vote for the principled conservative of this race: Alan Schlesinger.
Posted at 03:40 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCI hear there's an election coming up soon.
UPDATE: In an update to a story that Swing State Project first covered many months ago, Curt Weldon is now under federal investigation for trading his official influence for lucrative lobbying contract for his daughter. Check it out (via DailyKos). Ah, when bad things happen to bad people. Now Crazy Curt can spend the last month of the campaign answering questions about this. Finally, justice arrives.
ANOTHER UPDATE: Two new polls with contradictory results in NH-02:
Hodes led Bass 48 percent to 39 percent with the other 13 percent undecided in the Becker Institute Inc. poll taken Oct. 6-8....
An American Research Group poll had better news for Bass, showing him still out front, 48-42 percent, with 3 percent for Libertarian Ken Blevens and 7 percent undecided.
Posted at 04:00 PM in Open Threads | Comments (25) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Son of 3Q Fundraising Reports Open Thread
Posted by DavidNYCCome on, feel the noise:
| District | Candidate | Party | 3Q Raised | CoH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-50 | Brian Bilbray | R | 350 | 195 |
| GA-08 | Mac Collins | R | 295 | 502 |
| GA-12 | Max Burns | R | 632 | 604 |
| IA-02 | Jim Leach | R | 71 | 177 |
| IL-11 | John Pavich | D | 58 | 13 |
| IN-09 | Mike Sodrel | R | 431 | 1,100 |
| KY-03 | Anne Northup | R | 564 | 1,500 |
| NM-01 | Heather Wilson | R | 1,000 | 1,400 |
| NV-03 | Jon Porter | R | 412 | 189 |
| NY-26 | Tom Reynolds | R | 658 | 1,900 |
| OH-06 | Charlie Wilson | D | 368 | 462 |
| OH-12 | Bob Shamansky | D | 105 | 602 |
| PA-04 | Melissa Hart | R | 475 | 1,100 |
| PA-08 | Mike Fitzpatrick | R | 385 | 446 |
| TX-14 | Ron Paul | R | 332 | 365 |
| VT-AL | Martha Rainville | R | 289 | 239 |
| VT-AL | Peter Welch | D | 436 | 522 |
| WI-08 | Steve Kagen | D | 150 | 146 |
All numbers are in thousands. If the "3Q Raised" number is in boldface, it means I combined a pre-primary report with the actual 3Q report to give a full picture of the quarter. Also, these numbers do not include loans made by the candidate. A couple of guys have lent their campaigns a lot of money - especially Steve Kagen and Bob Shamansky.
If you have any more numbers, please post them in comments (with links if you've got `em). Earlier numbers are available here and here.
Posted at 12:56 PM in 2006 Elections, Fundraising | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
3Q Fundraising Reports Open Thread
Posted by James L.Picking up where we left off, this weekend is the deadline for campaigns to file their finance reports for the third quarter of 2006, ending on September 30.
I've rounded up a few noteworthy tallies, but feel free to post any other numbers you see floating around.
Eric Massa (D, NY-29): $296k raised from 8/24 through 9/30, $162k raised from 7/01 through 8/23; $334k cash-on-hand ($900k total raised)Mike Weaver (D, KY-02): $222k raised, $270k CoH ($390k total raised)
Larry Grant (D, ID-01): $184k raised, $73k CoH ($345k total raised)
Tessa Hafen (D, NV-03): $307k raised from 7/27 through 9/30, $46k raised from 7/01 through 7/26; $456k CoH ($1.11m total raised)
Angie Paccione (D, CO-04): $567k raised; $309k CoH ($1.33m total raised)
Mary Jo Kilroy (D, OH-15): $1.008m raised; $793k CoH ($2.055 total raised)
Deborah Pryce (R, OH-15): $1.4m raised; $2m CoHOH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D): $2.9m raised ($1.2m CoH); Mike DeWine (R): $2.7m raised ($4.5m CoH)
Very good fundraising by Massa, who has pulled in over $450k in the third quarter. Similarly, good fundraising numbers by the likes of Angie Paccione and Tessa Hafen lead to a solid impression of the Democrats' 2nd tier challengers this year. At the same time, though, Mike Weaver has the support of the DCCC's Red to Blue program, but you wouldn't know it by his fundraising.
Posted at 01:51 AM in 2006 Elections, Fundraising | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
NH-02: Charlie Bass Steps in Some Macaca
Posted by DavidNYCAh, Charlie Bass. Lately he's shown exactly how weak his grey matter is. Now, he's gone a step further and shown a strong preference for the taste of his own feet. Just the other day, he managed to insult Bernie Sanders, his supporters, and New Yorkers all in one fell swoop:
"Oh, it's going to be nice not to have Hugo Chavez across the Connecticut river, representing Vermont at large. Bernie Sanders and his Sandernistas, go back to taxi driving in the Bronx of New York City, where they came from to begin with".
Watch the video here:
The line - delivered in a hostile, sneering tone - comes about 35 seconds in and is greeted with hearty applause. To my ears, this is some not-so-thinly veiled racist fear-mongering, given that the Bronx is a predominantly black and Hispanic borough. The choice of the phrase "taxi drivers" also stands out. It's a double-whammy: Bass readily mocks hard-working people he views as "beneath" his own lofty station, and he singles out for derision a group composed largely of immigrants. It's no surprise that the faux-moderate Bass holds such ugly views - they are typical of Republican office-holders.
It's also no surprise that Bass, yet again, manages to show how stupid he is. First off, Sanders is from Brooklyn, not the Bronx. But, more importantly, Bernie is still gonna be representing Vermont "at large" next year. Is Charlie not aware that Sanders is running for the Senate this year, and is leading by huge margins in every single poll? Considering that Charlie Bass has still not released any of his internal polls this year, perhaps he's just no longer familiar with the general concept of public opinion surveys.
Like I say, when it comes to Charlie Bass, nothing surprises me. But if he wants to pick a fight with all of New York City, bring it on. As we like to say around here, "Yeah? You and what army?"
Posted at 10:14 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Mid-Week Open Thread
Posted by James L.It's my birthday, so no blogging today for me. Feel free to use this as an open thread!
I will say this, though: we're going to see some exciting changes here at Swing State Project soon, including something fun next week that will hopefully get you all involved. I can't wait to get you guys in on this!
Posted at 04:37 PM in Open Threads | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
NRCC Stretching to Defend Expanding Playing Field
Posted by James L.From the Hotline:
Competitive races are popping up in some very surprising places.The NRCC just began direct-mail hits against Victoria Wulsin (OH 02) and CA 50's Francine Busby (remember her?). Republicans are phone banking against Charlie Brown (CA 04) and have spent nearly $500K against Jerry McNerney (CA 11). These were hardly top targets even one month ago.
A new Mason-Dixon poll demonstrates how races are popping up in unusual territory. In CO 05, which has never elected a Democrat, Jay Fawcett (D) is tied with state Sen. Doug Lamborn (R) at 37%.
How much more of this can Republicans take? Spending resources against people like Francine Busby (I can hardly believe it), Charlie Brown, and Jerry McNerney--all challengers facing uphill climbs in strongly Republican districts in California--is definitely not something the NRCC had in mind a month ago. I've been reluctant to predict that we'll see a "wave" election this fall, but the NRCC is scrambling to deal with one. The receipts don't lie.
But for Democrats to take advantage of the NRCC spreading its defensive game thin, the DCCC is going to need even more resources than what they've got already. Markos has it right: House Democrats sitting on large warchests in safe districts need to give, and give generously, today (I'm looking at you, Rob Andrews) to help secure a Democratic House this November.
Posted at 04:58 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
OH-12: Hilarious Shamansky Ad
Posted by James L.Here's something pretty rare: a genuinely funny campaign commercial. This one's from former Rep. Bob Shamansky, and goes right for the jugular of incumbent Rep. Pat Tiberi--only with a liberal dose of humor that made JibJab such a craze two years ago.
Awesome. Just awesome. At 78 years old, Bob Shamansky is one of the unlikeliest candidates for Congress this year. Shamansky actually originally contested this seat in 1966 (that's not a typo) unsuccessfully, but did manage to knock off 10-term incumbent Rep. Samuel Devine in 1980, before redistricting forced his defeat just two years later. Now, Bob's back to challenge Republican congressman Pat Tiberi in a district that's more favorable for Democrats since Bush edged Gore here by a 51-46% margin in 2000. Due to extensive voter registration efforts by local Democrats and changing demographics in Franklin County, Bush squeaked by with 51% to Kerry's 49% in 2004. While this is certainly not the likeliest of House Democratic pick-ups, Shamansky has put up a respectable amount of his own money into this race, and with the mood of the Ohio and national electorate turning sour for Republicans, you never know about a seat like this.
Crazier things have happened.
Posted at 12:44 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 09, 2006
NY-26: CQ Makes a Dramatic Rating Change
Posted by James L.From Leans Republican to Leans Democratic. Wowza.
The scandal surrounding resigned Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley and the salacious messages he sent to underage congressional pages has engulfed Washington, D.C., and reordered the already pitched partisan battle for control of the House.And nowhere is that more true than in New York’s 26th District, where the re-election prospects of four-term Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds — head of the Republicans’ national House campaign organization — have seen a stunning reversal of fortune. The controversy over Reynolds’ handling of information about Foley’s activities has prompted CQPolitics.com to change its rating on the race to Leans Democratic from Leans Republican.
That switch comes just one week after CQPolitics.com downgraded Reynolds to Leans Republican from Safe Republican — a position where Reynolds had comfortably resided prior to Foley’s abrupt Sept. 29 resignation.
National Republican Campaign Committee chairman Tom Reynolds is in such a bind that CQ is calling him the underdog now. That's no small feat for a formerly popular Republican in a district that only gave 43% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. In the wake of Reynolds' involvement in covering up Mark Foley's predatory behavior in Congress (with Reynolds even going so far as to ask Foley to run again after he learned of inappropriate e-mail messages sent from Foley to a 16 year-old boy), CQ notes that national 527s and PACs like Majority Action and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees are pushing Reynolds' pressure points hard. To hear Majority Action's no holds barred radio ad slamming Reynolds' role in the Foley cover-up scandal, click here. I'd love to see AFSCME's ad, but I have yet to see a copy of it distributed online.
This is what striking at the head of the serpent looks like.
Posted at 06:52 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Gallup: Democrats Have a 23-Point Lead
Posted by James L.Four weeks before congressional elections, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Democrats hold a 23-point lead over GOP candidates. That's double the lead Republicans had a month before they seized control of Congress in 1994.President Bush's approval rating was 37%, down from 44% in a Sept. 15-17 poll. The approval rating for Congress was 24%, down 5 points from last month.
The plummeting GOP ratings in the poll of 1,007 adults, taken Friday through Sunday, come after a series of dismal developments for the party. They include high levels of violence in Iraq; a National Intelligence Estimate that contradicted upbeat administration statements on Iraq; a new Bob Woodward book about internal White House disagreements over Iraq policy, and the Sept. 29 resignation of GOP Rep. Mark Foley hours after reports that he exchanged sexually explicit instant messages with teenage House pages.
Last month's poll showed a bounce for Bush and Republicans following the fifth anniversary of 9/11 and a party-wide focus on terrorism. "Not only is it gone, but the Democrats have momentum," Democratic strategist Anita Dunn said.
She called the Foley scandal "the absolute crystallization for people of everything they dislike about Washington and the congressional Republicans."
Last month, Gallup had Democrats and Republicans tied at 48% each among likely voters. There are lots of caveats about generic ballot polls--namely, the pesky tendency for voters to voice their party preference, and yet remain reluctant to actually fire their incumbent Representative at the polls. Still, 23 points is full-scale disaster territory. Even the much-vaunted GOP turnout operation can't stop that kind of bleeding.
Posted at 04:26 PM in 2006 Elections - House, 2006 Elections - Senate | Comments (9) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
CT-05: Nancy Johnson = Pure Evil
Posted by James L.It's a tough call, but for some reason, Connecticut's Nancy Johnson is the Republican House member I despise most. I'm not talking about ordinary, banal Republican evil. I'm talking about Satan's stooge-type evil. Maybe it was her tasteless campaign commercial that re-enacted a 9/11 funeral service, or maybe it was her disgustingly misleading campaign ad saying that because Chris Murphy opposes illegal wiretapping, he also opposes prompt surveillance of terrorist communications. (It's a totally ludicrous claim, of course--there's no stopping warrants from being sought AFTER the wiretap was conducted.) But this statement from Johnson on the House Republican cover-up of the Mark Foley scandal takes the cake:
If any leader from either party tried to cover up this information at the expense of the safety of our children, then they should resign their position immediately.It would be reprehensible if any Republican leader intentionally covered up the full facts of the case, and it would be equally reprehensible if Democrat leaders sat on this information for a year in order to release it 30 days before an election.
I want an investigation to go forward to find out answers to these questions.
There are probably a dozen ridiculous things about this statement, but let's point out the obvious ones. As ctblogger notes, Johnson throws out a completely baseless insinuation that Democrats had access to Mark Foley's predatory e-mails and IMs, when there is no evidence of the sort. Where does she get off throwing her party's dirty laundry into the Democrats' backyard? Completely despicable. Secondly, Nancy Johnson knows goddamn well that Democrats didn't leak Foley's e-mails to the media; Republican sources did, according to both The Hill and ABC's Brian Ross. So Nancy Johnson gets to lie through her teeth merely by "raising the question" of whether or not "Democrat leaders" leaked this information for electoral purposes. And to top it all off, she spits all this bile while somehow clinging to a "grandmotherly" image of care and moderation.
It's a good thing none of Johnson's TV ads show her facing away from the camera--otherwise her demonic horns might have been revealed.
Posted at 01:02 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Connecticut | Comments (8) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
Posted by DavidNYCThe floor is yours.
P.S. If you come across any early fundraising reports, please let us know.
P.P.S. Surprise! North Korea detonates a nuclear device! Just as the media were in an all-out feedy frenzy over the House Republican cover-up of Mark Foley's predatory behavior, suddenly the ground shifts again towards nuclear proliferation issues. While this may aid the Republicans marginally in that it helps change the subject (for who knows how long) from the lose-lose Foley scandal to yet another discourse on scary people wanting to kill us. But really, I find it hard to see how this will be much of a net plus for the GOP. Did the failure to contain North Korea's nuclear program not happen under Bush's watch? Isn't this just another sign of Bush's weakness? (James L.)
Posted at 12:00 PM in Open Threads | Comments (14) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Saturday, October 07, 2006
ID-01: Another Republican Takes Aim at Sali
Posted by James L.The race for Idaho's first congressional district is one of the craziest scenarios this cycle. Just how awful must Bill Sali, the Republican nominee, be to give his Democratic opponent (netroots candidate Larry Grant) a chance to wage a competitive campaign for this open seat that delivered 69% of its vote to Bush in 2004? Pretty awful.
After squeaking out a victory with 26% of the vote in a very crowded GOP primary back in May, Sali's reputation as the embarrassment of the state House ("an absolute idiot" according to the Republican Speaker) hasn't done him any favors in his general election campaign. And now, Sali's runner-up in the primary, county commissioner Robert Vasquez (who is actually now waging a primary challenge to Sen. Larry Craig for the '08 nomination), is quite willing to bash Sali senseless in front of any reporter willing to listen:
Vasquez also took aim at Bill Sali, the Republican candidate for the 1st Congressional District who defeated Vasquez in a six-way primary election. Sali took nearly 26 percent of the vote, Vasquez took 18.5 percent. The commissioner said that if both he and Sali end up representing Idaho at the nation's capital, he would not work with Sali on any legislation."I would have no problem working with any other member of Idaho's delegation," Vasquez said. "I cannot in my wildest imaging contemplate any issue that Bill Sali would champion that would be beneficial to Idaho or the United States of America instead of big business corporations."
The Spokesman-Review blog has more:
Today, in the Idaho Press-Tribune in Nampa, second-place finisher Robert Vasquez, a Canyon County commissioner, said he’d never vote for GOP primary victor Bill Sali because, “I would not and do not and cannot endorse a liar for Congress.”
Ouch. Meanwhile, Alan at Idablue has managed to find some of Sali's campaign paraphernalia.
Posted at 10:31 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Friday, October 06, 2006
Recent CQ Ratings Changes
Posted by James L.CQ is the most risk-averse of all the major prognosticators, making changes to their House and Senate race ratings only when they're absolutely sure that conditions have changed significantly in each particular constituency. Bowers suggests that this equates to wearing Republican-tinted glasses, but really, it says more to CQ's timidity and respect for conventional wisdom surrounding the near-invincibility of incumbents. So when CQ actually musters the guts to change their ratings, even incrementally, it's worth a look.
Here's everything I've seen in the past week:
CA-Gov (Schwarzenegger-R v. Angelides-D): No Clear Favorite to Leans Republican
CA-04 (Doolittle-R v. Brown-D): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
CA-11 (Pombo-R v. McNerney-D): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
CO-05 (OPEN; Lamborn-R v. Fawcett-D): Safe Republican to Republican Favored
FL-16 (Foley/Negron-R v. Mahoney-D): Safe Republican to No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic
FL-22 (Shaw-R v. Klein-D): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
NJ-07 (Ferguson-R v. Stender-D): Republican Favored to Leans Republican
NY-26 (Reynolds-R v. Davis-D): Safe Republican to Leans Republican
NC-11 (Taylor-R v. Shuler-D): Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite
The Mark Foley cover-up scandal gave CQ the cover to make a few badly-needed revisions, but I still find FL-22 a little eyebrow-raising. (Or maybe I'm the one who's timid.) It's pretty amazing that they took this long to downgrade the competitiveness of CA-Gov, though. Anyone who was anyone knew that race was over as soon as the Democratic primary got irrevocably ugly, making the Governator look refreshing in comparison.
UPDATE: CQ has made a few ratings changes this afternoon, moving MN-Sen and AZ-08 into the "Democrat Favored" column from No Clear Favorite.
UPDATE (David): Gonna add some Cook (not CQ) ratings changes to this post:
AK-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Republican
AR-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Democratic
CO-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MA-Gov (Open): Toss Up to Lean Democratic
MN-Gov (Pawlenty): Lean Republican to Toss UpCA-04 (Doolittle): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CA-11 (Pombo): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
CO-04 (Musgrave): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-13 (Open): Lean Republican to Toss Up
KY-02 (Lewis): Solid Republican to Lean Republican
MN-06 (Open): Lean Republican to Toss Up
NV-02 (Open): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-26 (Reynolds): Solid Republican to Toss Up
NC-08 (Hayes): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-04 (Hart): Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-07 (Weldon): Lean Republican to Toss Up
PA-10 (Sherwood): Lean Republican to Toss Up
WA-08 (Reichert): Lean Republican to Toss Up
WI-08 (Open): Lean Republican to Toss Up
This is the most volatile set of House ratings changes I've seen from Amy Walter (sub. req.) this cycle. (The gubernatorial rankings are courtesy Jennifer Duffy.) A few things to note. One, this is the first time I've seen Amy move a race more than one notch at a time - she pushes KY-02 from Solid R to Lean R (bypassing Likely R), and shifts NY-26 all the way from Solid R to Toss Up (a full three-column shift). Personally, I would have had NY-26 at Likely R all along, but this is still a big move.
KY-02, though, is almost an even better example of how quickly the CW can change in any given district. Less than three weeks ago - on Sept. 20th - Walter moved the race from Likely R to Solid R. Now she pushes it right back, and then some. All in all, though, this list is clearly a great sign for Democrats.
Posted at 04:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Many Voter Registration Deadlines Looming
Posted by DavidNYCMatt Stoller notes that voter registration deadlines in many states are very, very soon. If you haven't yet registered to vote, please do so! And if you aren't sure of your registration status (you've moved in recent years, etc.), please call your local board of elections to check. If you are already registered, then your mission should be to register at least one other person in time for election day. With web-based tools, it's easier than ever:
Pro-Net Neutrality Voter Registration Tool
The first link takes you to a site which will tally up how many people register with the goal of supporting net neutrality. If for whatever reason that doesn't interest you (or your friends or relatives you're trying to sign up), follow the second link.
Posted at 11:03 PM in 2006 Elections, Activism | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Dems Hoping to Continue Statehouse Successes
Posted by DavidNYCAnd continue is the operative word. Check out this extremely wrong-headed quote from someone who ought to know better:
Tim Storey of the nonpartisan National Conference of State Legislatures said there could be a seismic swing in the control of state legislatures in favor of Democrats this fall because of an energized Democratic base. Legislatures currently are controlled nearly equally by Democrats and Republicans."For a number of elections, the Republicans have been eating [the Democrats] alive," Storey said. "Do the Democrats build some momentum in the other direction? I think they're optimistic they can do that."
The facts:
2003: Dem net gain of one chamber
Dems picked up NJ Senate
R's had no chamber gains2004: Dems net gain of five chambers
Dems picked up CO House; CO Senate; IA Senate (to a tie); MT Senate; MT House (to a tie); NC House; OR Senate; VT House; and WA Senate
GOP gained GA House; IN House; OK House; and TN Senate2005 & 2006: Dem net gain of eleven seats
No chamber flips since 2004, but Dems picked up additional seats in the 2005 elections (VA & NJ) and in special slections in MO, NH, PA, VA, and TX.
In other words, the Democrats have been kicking ass on this front over the past four years. Why someone from the NCLC - the pre-eminent organization devoted to state legislatures - could get things totally backwards is beyond me.
I would like to take this opportunity to praise the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (aka the DLCC) for their tireless work on these races. State lege races are usually unglamorous affairs, and the rewards for victory seldom receive the attention that national success does. Yet the DLCC plugs away, day after day, in the shadows of the DNC, DSCC and DCCC. They deserve a major pat on the back for all their successes in recent years.
And I'd also like to point out that a little help can go a long, long way in state legislative races. They are almost always low dollar races, so even small donations can make a big difference. ActBlue has activated state-level fundraising capabilities in twenty states now (many with the help of the DLCC), so it's even easier to donate to local candidates now. In fact, the DLCC even has its own ActBlue page with a list of targeted races. But if you aren't sure where you want to get involved, you can check out the DLCC's action list or donate directly to the DLCC.
Posted at 10:44 PM in 2006 Elections - State | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
3Q Fundraising Reports Start to Trickle In
Posted by James L.Up until 9/29, money was the often the best indicator of a candidate's chances of success. That's still the case today, but the macro factors introduced by the scandal surrounding the House Republican Leadership cover-up of Mark Foley's appetite for young congressional pages may mitigate the Republicans' sizable cash-on-hand lead in many hot House races this year--quite possibly Senate races as well. Look at it this way: it doesn't help them anywhere. There are no heroes in the House Republican caucus on this issue.
Don't get me wrong: I'm not predicting that Democrats will win 100 seats in some kind of tsunami. But Republicans will get less mileage out of their warchests this year with Mark Foley and Dennis Hastert gobbling up headlines, while Democratic messages on values and security will carry more weight.
That said, third quarter fundraising reports are starting to trickle in. If you know of any fundraising figures for any campaign, please share the numbers in the comments. I'll update this thread accordingly. Here's what I've seen so far:
Jim Webb (D): $3.5m raised ($2.7m cash-on-hand; $4.6m total)
That's a pretty good increase, but he'll need even more to swamp out Allen in an expensive state like Virginia.
Joe Sestak (D): $1.14m raised ($1.53 CoH; $2.27m total)
Curt Weldon (R-Inc.): $0.91m raised ($1.12 CoH)
Simply stunning.
UPDATE (David): Some numbers from a couple of Republicans:
John Kline (R, MN-02): $173K raised, $775K CoH
Shelley Capito (R, WV-02): $800K raised, $1.04M CoH
Kline's opponent is FBI whistleblower Coleen Rowley, who had just $100K on hand as of August 23rd. A recent SUSA poll here was not a cause for optimism, showing Kline with a 55-35 lead.
Meanwhile, Mike Callaghan is running against Capito. I really like Mike, but this has been a tough uphill battle all the way. WV-02 is not a wealthy district, and raising money here without national help is hard. Capito, meanwhile, has gotten a whopping 44% of her donations from PACs - Callaghan's taken just 2% of his total from that source.
One possible ray of light here is that Capito is on the board which oversees congressional pages, whose GOP overseer (Rep. John Shimkus) utterly failed to do his job. Callaghan has called on Capito to resign from the page board, but Capito has predictably pled ignorance. it remains to be seen what the fallout is from this entire sordid episode.
Posted at 10:00 PM in 2006 Elections, Fundraising | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Ratings Changes from Cook
Posted by DavidNYCSome changes from Charlie Cook & Co.:
As the election draws closer, it is clear that the season is over for some challengers, including some who have run solid efforts. This would be the case for Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley (D) in the AL-Gov race, and for Republicans Pete Ricketts in NE-Sen and Richard Tarrant in VT-Sen.
I'm a bit disappointed about AL-Gov. A couple of very early polls showed that Baxley was surprisingly competitive. But incumbent Bob Riley developed something of a Giuliani-style halo after Katrina. (Because she is a Democrat, fellow Gulf Coast governor Kathleen Blanco of Louisiana was an easy target for the Bush administration and consequently the media, so her fortunes went south while Riley's shot skyward.) At best, though, this was always a chance to sneak in and steal a seat, so I can't say I'm really broken-hearted.
Meanwhile, while I was never worried about VT-Sen at all, several commenters here said they were concerned about NE-Sen due to Ricketts' huge personal wealth. (He's the son of the founder of Ameritrade.) But, according to Jennifer Duffy, Ricketts hasn't gained any traction despite being what she calls a "strong first-time candidate." And while there hasn't been a single public poll of this race since May, she also notes that we'd have seen an internal GOP poll if they had any good news to report.
I'll be glad if we can totally take this race off our radars. I know that there are several Nebraskans who read the site (or at least have in the past). I'd love to hear some more thoughts from locals.
Posted at 09:38 PM in 2006 Elections | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
NY-26: NRCC Chairman Reynolds on Brink of Defeat
Posted by James L.In the wake of scandalous headlines and embarrassing press conferences, it's no wonder that NRCC chair Tom Reynolds is reduced to a sweating, blubbering apologist for his role in the House Republican Leadership cover-up of Mark Foley's predatory advances towards congressional pages. Here's one more reason for Reynolds to toss and turn tonight (SUSA, likely voters, 9/28 in parens):
Jack Davis (D): 50 (43)
Tom Reynolds (R-Inc.): 45 (45)
MoE: ±4.6%
How sweet it is: the man in charge of co-ordinating the defensive strategy for House Republican incumbents this fall is on the path towards losing his own seat. Jack Davis, who captured a surprisingly good 44% of the vote here in 2004 (where he outperformed Kerry by 1%) and can self-fund this year's bid, is poised to strike a decapitating blow for Democrats this November.
PS: Sorry for the slowness this week--I have a huge economics exam tomorrow, so I'll be hunkered down in my vice-presidential bunker for a good 24 hours.
Posted at 04:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
Gov. Schweitzer's Actblue Page
Posted by James L.Here's something that caught my eye on Actblue.com: Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana has his own fundraising page featuring all of the netroots candidates. I'm not sure how long this page has been up, but in any case, that's a pretty slick move!
Posted at 04:10 PM in 2006 Elections, Fundraising | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Reuters House Race Polls
Posted by James L.Check them out here. I have to run to class, so I can't post the breakdown here just yet. From a quick skimming, the results are shockingly good for Democrats--Democratic candidates hold leads in almost every key race polled (surprisingly, Ken Lucas being a notable exception). Too good, maybe.
Update: Okay, now I realize why these polls are so favorable for Democrats--that pinko Zogby did them. (I'm being facetious, of course, but Zogby has been known to produce results that often tilt slightly towards Democratic candidates over most other polls.)
Posted at 12:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
CT-Sen: Cutest Ad Ever
Posted by James L.Ain't nobody who can do it like Hillsman can.
Posted at 11:06 PM in 2006 Elections - Senate, Connecticut | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Creepy Old Men Defending Creepy Old Men
Posted by James L.
One of the worst aspects of the media swarm on the House Republican cover-up of Rep. Mark Foley's predatory relationship with young congressional pages for the GOP this fall has got to be the face of Dennis Hastert.
Parents are grasping to rationalize how the House Republican leadership, who knew of Foley's creepy come-ons to underage pages for at least a year before ABC news busted the story wide open, could let Foley off with only a "warning" rather than a serious investigation. When they turn on their TVs, when the open their daily newspapers, Hastert's face is all over the coverage of this scandal. There's got to be something unsettling for parents to see old men like Hastert spin and lie as they stubbornly refuse to accept responsibility for their failure to protect children working in Congress. And with Hastert refusing to step down as Speaker, he will remain in the media's crosshairs as more sickening details surrounding Foley's conduct are revealed and the House Republican Leadership's failures to protect children are questioned even harder. The GOP has no one at the top with a motherly image to do damage control: Hastert, Boehner, Reynolds, Shimkus... all negligent old men defending their irresponsible attitude towards child sex predators on Capitol Hill. And yes, when Dennis Hastert slams the abused former pages for speaking up on Foley, saying that they're threatening the Republicans' capacity to keep America safe from terrorism, you're goddamned right that I'm calling him a creep, too.
Posted at 06:09 PM in 2006 Elections, 2006 Elections - House, Illinois | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
The Republican Playbook on Foley: "Let's Find One Lie and Stick to It"
Posted by James L.Hotline On Call had a couple of very good pieces on the Democratic and Republican political playbooks in the wake of the House Republican Sexual Predator Scandal (and yes, when House Republican leaders are involved in turning a blind eye to keeping a child sex predator in charge of the Congressional Caucus on Missing & Exploited Children, you're damn right I'm calling this an institutional Republican scandal). One thing that really stuck out from the Hotline's Republican playbook is this action item:
Fourth, they'll try to tamp down on internal disagreements about the timeline. This will be hard.
Translation: We better find one lie and stick to it. But isn't it telling, when caught off guard by the initial media scrums last Friday, that Alexander fingered Reynolds, then Boehner fingered Hastert (and then promptly recanted), followed by Reynolds throwing the blame, again, to Hastert? It's classic game theory: if you don't give the criminals a chance to get their "story" straight with each other, they'll throw around all kinds of bombshells when backed into a corner, isolated. Whichever lies the House Republican Leadership concocts to minimize the damage to their careers as politicians, they'll have to deal with the fact that their original media statements were very, very incongruent. They worked all weekend to iron out the edges, but that boulder is already rolling off the cliff. Good luck surviving November, fellas.
Posted at 12:26 AM in 2006 Elections, Scandals | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati
Monday, October 02, 2006
TX-22: Nick Lampson Calls on NRCC to Protect Exploited Children
Posted by James L.David gave me the day off today, but I just can't sit in my seat and not share this news with you. On Friday, when the explosive revelations surrounding Republican Rep. Mark Foley's predatory relationship with young male pages--and the cover-up by the enabling and irresponsible House Republican Leadership--were revealed, Swing State Project took the lead in demanding that Mark Foley and the NRCC atone for their actions by donating the $2.7 million+ warchest that Foley had amassed for his re-election. I have no doubt that the NRCC would gladly suck up the $2.7 million warchest of a sexual predator, so it's time for our voices to be heard: Republicans must turn over their tainted money to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children or a similar credible charity that protects exploited children.
One strong voice that has emerged on this matter is former Congressman Nick Lampson, who originally founded the Congressional Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children (the same Caucus that Foley would go on to shamefully taint). Lampson has set up a great action page that helps you send a message to Republicans that using Foley's tainted $2.7 million to help protect vulnerable incumbents this fall is unacceptable:
Today, I sent a letter to my opponent asking her to join me in calling for the resignation of any member of congressional leadership who had knowledge of inappropriate email and instant messenger communications between shamed Congressman Mark Foley and underage pages working at the House of Representatives. I urged my opponent to donate the funds she recently received from Congressman Tom Reynolds, who has admitted he knew of the situation and did nothing about it and from any others in congressional leadership who had prior knowledge of Mr. Foley's actions to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.Now, we find out that the national Republicans are quick to condemn Congressman Foley, but are willing to accept the $2.7 million campaign war chest Mr. Foley has amassed. On Sunday, Carl Forti, the communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said "that the committee would gladly accept Mr. Foley's money or part of it to devote to House races." [New York Times, 10/2/06]
That's despicable.
Please join me in calling on Mr. Foley and the NRCC to donate his $2.7 million campaign war chest to the National Center for Missing Exploited Children.
Lampson is stepping up aggressively on this issue, and I'd like every single Democratic challenger to follow. I want Democrats to demand that their Republican opponents return any money that Foley donated to them. I want Democrats to demand that the NRCC not take ownership of the campaign warchest of a sexual predator. And furthermore, I want to see a lot more press releases like this one:
"Congressman Foley was a member of our Missing and Exploited Children's Caucus and even rose to chair that organization," Lampson said. "Because of our involvement in that caucus, I feel utterly betrayed by these revelations. This is simply disgusting, and the fact that Congressional leaders knew about the allegations and actively worked to cover them up is an outrage. Any member of congressional leadership who knew about these allegations and failed to act should resign from Congress immediately." (Emphasis added.)
Posted at 04:04 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Texas | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0) | Technorati