Swing State Project

« The Great Swing State Project Predictions Contest is Now Closed! | Main | October Fundraising Reports »

Thursday, October 26, 2006

DCCC Hones in on New York: Mejias, Hall, Davis, and Massa Added to Red to Blue

Posted by James L.

Perhaps sensing a once in a generation opportunity to paint as many as seven Republican districts in New York blue this cycle, the DCCC has just added Dave Mejias (NY-03), John Hall (NY-19), Jack Davis (NY-26), and Eric Massa (NY-29) to the Red to Blue program (see Jesse Lee's posts here and here). With the election a week and a half away, this would've been more significant had it been announced a few weeks ago, but hopefully it should lend these four guys an extra surge against their embattled opponents. With Sue Kelly (NY-19) running away from the local media (and taking some absolutely blistering criticism for it), Peter King (NY-03) labelling the AARP and NAACP "extremist organizations", Tom Reynolds reeling from his role in the Mark Foley cover-up, and Randy Kuhl (NY-29), um, being his crazy self, the time is ripe to turn New York state solidly blue.

Posted at 04:28 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New York | Technorati

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.swingstateproject.com/mt/mt-track-ssp.cgi/2670

Comments

Usually I don't like the phrase but...

'Great minds think alike':
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/26/155412/85

=D
-- MrMacMan

Posted by: MrMacMan at October 26, 2006 05:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

This really may be a once in a generation opportunity to turn New York upside-down. Spitzer and Clinton are both going to win with over 60% of the vote, its a Democratic year, and the coattails in this state could not be any bigger. Same is true for Ohio where there are as many as 5 seats in play. Democrats could potentially win the 15 seats they need in four states: Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York.

Posted by: AC4508 at October 26, 2006 06:17 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If we win 15 seats in Ohio, PA, IN and NY, we're winning 45 seats in total.

Posted by: James L. at October 26, 2006 06:24 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I believe AC4508 meant you could arguably win 15 districts across those 4 states without even worrying about other states, not that you'd win 15 in each (Indiana doesn't even have 15 districts).

This is indeed possible. It's highly likely that there could be 3 pickups each in OH, IN, and PA. That would mean you'd really have to run the table in NY, however, for 6. Also possible, but more likely to be 5. But add in Smilin' Nick Lampson, you've got yourself a Congress.

Posted by: nobodyforpresident at October 26, 2006 06:52 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

No, I got what AC4508 meant. I just meant to say, if we're going to win 15 seats based on our targets in OH, PA, IN, and NY, that means that Democrats are going to pick up a ton of seats nationally--maybe around 45ish.

(This is not how I think things will turn out, but if it does, expect an explosive night.)

Posted by: James L. at October 26, 2006 07:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

well, if things trend the way they have been (including PA-08 in our favor as well as OH-01), then it's likely that we get 10 seats from just IN, OH and PA... with 2 seats pretty likely going our way in NY (NY-24 and NY-26), and some very great pickup opportunities in NY-29, NY-20, NY-19 as well as recently NY-25 and NY-03, discluding the recent possibility in PA-04... 15 seats in these 4 states suddenly seems like a very realistic possibility.

Posted by: KainIIIC at October 26, 2006 07:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Maybe, but it's also possible that the Dems could do better in the Northeast than elsewhere, and win a lot of seats there without winning them in a national "wave". I believe that's what AC4508 meant. I'm thinking that there will be more successful challengers in the four states mentioned than in other states, so 15 might not equal 45.

Posted by: nobodyforpresident at October 26, 2006 07:07 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well, there's no question that there's more room to grow in the Northeast than the South, for example. But take a look at Chuck Todd's Top 60: http://nationaljournal.com/racerankings/house/

If we're going to win 15 seats in OH-PA-NY-IN, that means we snag 3 in IN, 4 or 5 in PA (6/7/8/10 and maybe 4), 3 or 4 in OH (01, 15, 18 and maybe 02)... meaning that we'd have to pick up between 3 and 5 seats in NY (24, 26, 20, and maybe 29, 19, or 25).

But if we're going to win a seat like NY-19, that's ranked 54th by Todd in terms of likeliness to flip, I don't think that anti-GOP sentiment will be confined just to New York state. (That's not saying I'm putting all my stock in these rankings, but I think it's a pretty good indicator of how some of these NY races are going to be harder to pull off than many others around the nation.)

Posted by: James L. at October 26, 2006 07:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Jsmes, I think you've got the right phrase: "more room to grow". The Todd rankings seem pretty reasonable to me. I guess the question is, is a seat like NY-19 really less likely to flip than NV-2 or KY-4? I'd have said no, but I'm no Chuck Todd.

Posted by: nobodyforpresident at October 26, 2006 07:37 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well even if it was less likely to flip before (which i thought it should be higher then its 54th place) but now that the DCCC finally got into the race -- its 100% going up.

I feel that we are 4-5% away from Kelly no matter what the polls say, and our ground game and the local press is helping us close the gap.

-- MrMacMan

Posted by: MrMacMan at October 26, 2006 10:04 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the National Journal link James. Interesting to see it has been expanded to 60 seats. At this point I've got 34 races in First Tier (Wave) and 32 in Second Tier (Wave), with a projected pick-up of 33 seats (75% of 1st Wave & 25% of 2nd Wave.

Posted by: Predictor at October 27, 2006 12:14 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment