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Sunday, October 29, 2006

ID-Gov, ID-01: Tossups

Posted by James L.

A new Mason-Dixon poll confirms what many on the ground in Idaho have been predicting: Democrats are in a statistical dead heat in both the Governor's and 1st District races. I can't find the actual raw numbers just yet, so we'll have to make do with this:

Democrats haven't won a governor's race since 1990 or a seat in Congress since 1992, but a call for change nationally is reaching Idaho. Coupled with Republican candidates who inspire negative feelings, Democrats have a shot.

In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democratic newspaper owner Jerry Brady by a single percentage point. Republican state Rep. Bill Sali has a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic businessman Larry Grant for the congressional seat that runs from West Boise north to Canada. In the race to oversee public schools, Democrat Jana Jones leads Republican Tom Luna by 3 percentage points.

All three are statistical dead heats. The survey of 625 likely voters was conducted for the Idaho Statesman and Today's 6, the local ABC affiliate. The margin of error statewide is plus or minus 4 percentage points; in the 1st District that rises to 6 percentage points. Likely voters were polled last week by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C. (emphasis added)

I won't keep it a secret: what's going on in Idaho is my favorite story of this cycle. Even in the reddest of red America, the GOP's lurch towards extremism coupled with a Democratic renaissance at the grassroots level has the potential to result in several major upsets this year:

"At this point in a typical campaign, Idaho Democrats are dispirited and looking for moral victories," said Jim Weatherby, a political scientist who has overseen polling at Boise State University. "This time, it looks like they may actually pull off some major victories."

In follow-up interviews with 42 polled voters, the Statesman learned they want change largely because of disapproval of President Bush and the war in Iraq.

Idaho GOP Chairman Kirk Sullivan said the national mood is hurting Republicans in the reddest of states. "Idaho has been rather immune to the attitude and mood of the public across the nation," he said. "But this time, based on the amount of coverage that appears to be anti-Bush and anti-war, I believe that attitude has invaded Idaho," he said.

A blue Idaho would fit perfectly right beside a blue Montana, don't you think?

Posted at 11:33 AM in 2006 Elections - House, Idaho | Technorati

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Comments

I am so excited at these numbers - and completely relieved about the school superintendent race. If there are any of these three Republicans I couldn't stand in office, it would be Luna. The other two I guess I've gotten used to, though I don't think I'll have to stand it much longer!

Posted by: yellownumber5 at October 29, 2006 12:49 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Be really nice to win some of these races. I am so very sick of coming extremely close in very red districts.

Posted by: bosdcla14 at October 29, 2006 05:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The thing is this is generally a cheap media market in which we can compete. A few thousand buks here by the DCCC goes a long way.

Larry Grant was the 10th candidate adopted by my PAC, Blue Catapult, since this is the type of seat we need to support in order to expand the map of contested races. We sent Larry a check and hope others will as well.

If Larry Grat wins here... The Club For Debt proves that they help Democrats more than Republicans, AND Karl Rove gets nauseous -- a great two-fer in my book.

Posted by: Ian in DC at October 29, 2006 06:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

If Larry Grat wins here... The Club For Debt proves that they help Democrats more than Republicans, AND Karl Rove gets nauseous -- a great two-fer in my book.

Karl Rove is already nauseous. To be nauseous is to inspire nausea in others. If Grant wins then Rove will probably be nauseated as well.

Posted by: Jay at October 30, 2006 06:34 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment