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Tuesday, October 31, 2006

NH-02: DCCC Drops Da Bomb on Charlie Bass

Posted by DavidNYC

Time for the Bassmaster to start cryin' into his beer:

DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

1. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy

2. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $490644.75
Purpose: Media Buy

3. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy

4. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/30/2006 Amount Expended = $35572.50
Purpose: Media Buy

5. Supports Candidate: Paul W. Hodes (H4NH02175)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.62
Purpose: Media Buy

6. Opposes Candidate: Charles F. Bass (H0NH02017)
Office Sought: House of Representatives, New Hampshire District 02
Payee: Great American Media
Date Expended = 10/31/2006 Amount Expended = $26888.63
Purpose: Media Buy

TOTAL: $1,120,206.75

Yeah, you read that last line right. Please join with me in using the Dr. Evil voice when we say ONE MEEELYON DOLLARS! They come at us with $365K, we go at them with $1.1M - that's the Chicago way.

Anyhow, apart from just expressing my joy that the DCCC is beating up so heavily on Bass (couldn't happen to a nicer guy), I do want to make a broader point here. For those of you backing candidates in competitive districts where the DCCC has yet to make a move, don't fret. Sometimes waiting can really pay off. Had the DCCC made a splash in this district any earlier than now, the NRCC (or RNC) would have been sure to match them. It would have been a slogfest, and slogfests almost always favor the party with more money - ie, the Republicans.

Because the DCCC held its fire, the GOP didn't move in this district until late last week. And by playing our cards so close to our vest until the absolute last moment, that makes it a hell of a lot harder for the NRCC to counter the pocket queens we just revealed. I say "pocket queens" because the GOP may yet have a pair of aces face down on the table. But I doubt it. I feel pretty sure that this strategy of delay has paid off.

And this is especially true in redder districts. If the GOP matches Dem independent expenditures (IEs) in a red district, that's almost always going to hurt the Dem, net-net. That's because the redder the area, the more likely undecideds are to lean Republican. The way to avoid this is for Dems to spend in such a way that it comes as a total surprise to the Republicans, as in KS-02, so that they can't match, or at least, can't match in time. In other words, I wouldn't be surprised if the DCCC parachuted into some other under-the-radar districts before election day. So keep your eyes on those IE reports.

Posted at 10:40 PM in 2006 Elections - House, New Hampshire | Technorati

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Comments

Bet MissLaura has a big smile on her face about this and the fact that Cook upgraded Hodes to "Toss-up" status. Cook made the following House ratings changes on Oct 30:

AZ-05 Hayworth Lean Repub to Toss Up
CA-11 Pombo Lean Repub to Toss Up
CO-04 Musgrave Lean Repubto Toss Up
CO-05 Open Likely Repub to Lean Repub
IA-01 Open Toss Up to Lean Democratic
KS-02 Ryun Likely Rep to Toss Up
MN-01 Gutknecht Lean Republican to Toss Up
NE-03 Open Likely Repub to Lean Repub
NH-02 Bass Lean Repub to Toss Up
OH-02 Schmidt Lean Repub to Toss Up
WY-AL Cubin Lean Repub to Toss Up
CA-50 Bilbray Likely Repub to Lean Repub
Look at those Netroots Candidates!
Cook now has 61 competitive gop seats in play, 33 are Toss-Up.

Posted by: Predictor at November 1, 2006 12:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictor is right. I have in fact spent much of the night looking at those numbers, and grinning like a fool, even though I knew the signs were there that something impressive was coming.

I'll say another reason I'm really glad none of this did come until so close to the election, is that in phonebanking, there was an immediate noticeable effect when the NRCC and others started getting in on the phone action - people who to that point had only been hearing from living Hodes volunteers were now getting robocalls and multiple calls and became much less receptive.

Posted by: MissLaura at November 1, 2006 01:15 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment