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Monday, October 30, 2006

OH-02: Jean Schmidt's Self-Inflicted October Surprise

Posted by James L.

I sometimes wonder if Jean Schmidt's entire political career has been a subvert effort to leave Republicans feeling punk'd in Ohio's 2nd district. Take yesterday, for example, when I read this nugget from a Cincinnati Enquirer article:

This doesn't happen every day: An incumbent member of Congress, in the middle of a re-election battle, says that storing nuclear waste shipments from around the world in her district may be a good idea.

U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt does say that, and her support for studying the idea has become an issue in her re-election campaign, especially in rural Pike County, in the far eastern end of her sprawling Southern Ohio District, where the nuclear wastes would be stored.

"I'm not advocating for it one way or the other," Schmidt told The Enquirer. "I'm saying it is something we need to look at."

Schmidt said she sees potential to create "hundreds, maybe thousands of jobs" in an economically distressed part of the state, where double-digit unemployment rates are the norm.

Unreal. With just over a week left until election day, Schmidt drops a radioactive October surprise on herself. When was the last time that you heard a politician advocate for the possibility of bringing nuclear waste into their constituency? It's mind-boggling, especially since this district nestles the Ohio River.

Cincinnati is an expensive media market to air ads in, but if the DCCC wanted to finish a vulnerable Jean Schmidt off, this could be the silver bullet.

Posted at 03:16 PM in 2006 Elections - House, Ohio | Technorati

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Comments

The latest rumor I'm hearing is that the DOE is delaying until after the election the annoucement of the candidates for the nuke dump. This helps Schmidt a bunch.

So far the DCCC has passed on spending any money on ad time in the 2nd. Sigh. I'm not feeling good about the 2nd right now.

Posted by: Ohio 2nd at October 30, 2006 04:27 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The keyword here is "so far". The DCCC only came into the special election in the last four days, as I recall. You might see some similar last-minute maneouver here, too.

But that's just speculation.

Posted by: James L. at October 30, 2006 04:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It's a shame the DCCC isn't in there yet. Mean Jean is just such an easy target.

On the other hand, if there is a "wave" her seat could fall into our hands. Especially in Ohio which looks set for a Democratic wave at all levels. Maybe that's what they're banking on.

Posted by: beeswax49 at October 30, 2006 05:09 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

It is my understanding that the DCCC decided not to include Victoria WULSIN in their last update of races to target and as a result she is on her own from here on out with hardly any money left. I moved OH-2 to lean GOP and feel it is a missed opportunity.

However, all this was prior to becoming aware of the pro-nuclear waste dump endorsement which I agree would be a unpopular position stance anywhere in America.

Problem is, if WULSIN cannot take this new issue to the media in an ad, it might me too little too late.

I would love to see Mean Jean SCHMIDT go down to defeat. But my brain is telling my heart to expect disappointment in Ohio-2.

Posted by: walja at October 30, 2006 05:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

SIGH

We've been jerked off so many times by the DCCC I'm surprised that I believe anything they say.

I've heard rumors of a NRCC poll putting Schmidt up by 8, and the Murtha attack ad actually helping Schmidt in Clermont and Warren Counties. I was thinking that it was bullshit, but with the DCCC renege that may explain it.

Posted by: Ohio 2nd at October 30, 2006 05:55 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

New polling from Majority Watch: http://www.majoritywatch.com/

Seals by 2, Burner by 2, McNerney by 2, Paccione by 3, Kissell by 4, Klein by 2, Jennings by 2, Kellam by 5, Kagen by 6, Hodes by 3, Maffei by 9, Massa by 11, Yarmuth by 6, Ken Lucas by 4, Gillibrand by 11, Hall by 2, Patrick Murphy by 3, Cranley by 2

Some races slide backwards, but this poll shows us ending up with 240 seats. WOO!

Posted by: X Stryker at October 30, 2006 06:00 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

When and where did the DCCC renege? I don't recall them ever saying they'd commit air war resources to this district.

Posted by: James L. at October 30, 2006 06:16 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks for the link, Stryker. Some of these results seem way too unlikely, though. I don't believe Shays is leading by 9, and I don't believe that Massa and Gillibrand are leading by 11, either.

Posted by: James L. at October 30, 2006 06:29 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

What's the point in adding Wulsin to the Red-to-Blue list if they're not sending any money?

Posted by: KCinDC at October 30, 2006 07:34 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

RE: "Cincinnati is an expensive media market to air ads in"

I would put some serious radio time on Portsmouth stations. It would hit Pike County as well as everything east of Clermont and should be pretty cheap.

Posted by: hilltopper at October 30, 2006 08:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

OH-2

I am not saying the DCCC backed off on promised aid to WULSIN. But the DCCC did not add WULSIN at the last update being added might be of assistance to a campaign. The races they last added at that time I am aware of included NH-2, NV-2, & KS-2. Oh-2 was not on that list. Were that she was.

Posted by: walja at October 31, 2006 05:54 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I don't understand, walja. Wulsin was included in the last addition to the Red-to-Blue list. Is your point that that was too late to help with the election?

Posted by: KCinDC at October 31, 2006 09:21 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

In software we call it vaporware.

Plus, the RNC is hammering both the 1st and 2nd with mailers. The DCCC is hammering the 1st with mailers. What have they done in the 2nd. There are easy ways to do media without doing TV.

Posted by: Ohio 2nd at October 31, 2006 12:46 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Great, great editorial cartoon about all this:

http://borgman.enquirer.com/weekly/daily_html/2006/10/103106borgman.html

Posted by: Piedmont at October 31, 2006 02:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Emily's list added the district a couple of weeks back and are putting their resources into the area. Wulsin's own fundraising picked up a lot in the last two months, and her own personal fundraising exceeded Schmidt's. I don't think Dr. Vic has "hardly any money left." It's easy, if you focus on a single money source, which has been adding competitive races seemingly almost every day, to get too defeatist about this. A lot of people have turned out in support of Dr. Vic, and I think she can pull it off, especially with this latest idiocy of Jean "Scrunchie" Schmidt's.

Posted by: Ansatasia P at October 31, 2006 03:22 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My apologies if I was unclear. The point I was attempting to make was that KS-2 NV-2 and NH-2 were in the last batch of new races that DCCC money was flowing into. Ohio-2 did not receive any of the monies. I was not commenting on adding any seat to a watch list. The list I was referring to is the list of races that were the last to be added that would see DCCC financial resources going to assist with media ad buys in targeted districts. Time is running our for media ad buys at this point so putting WULSIN on a list of developing races 9-ish days out from the election, in reality, is doing very little to nothing at all.

Posted by: walja at October 31, 2006 05:50 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sorry, I guess I misunderstood the Red-to-Blue list. I assumed that since Judy Feder got some DCCC money after she was added to the list that the others added did as well. How is Red-to-Blue any more meaningful than Emerging if there's no money involved?

Posted by: KCinDC at October 31, 2006 08:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

The DCCC pushes their R2B candidates on their major donors more heavily than Emerging Races candidates. Plus there are other benefits of the program--they get a congressional mentor, possible staff support, and other things that are little vague to me. So the better question would be: what's the point of Wulsin getting added so late?

For what it's worth, Emily's List has spent over $100k on this district in the past two days (mail and radio). It might not add up to what the DCCC could afford, but at least it's something.

Posted by: James L. at October 31, 2006 09:38 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment