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Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Reuters House Race Polls

Posted by James L.

Check them out here. I have to run to class, so I can't post the breakdown here just yet. From a quick skimming, the results are shockingly good for Democrats--Democratic candidates hold leads in almost every key race polled (surprisingly, Ken Lucas being a notable exception). Too good, maybe.

Update: Okay, now I realize why these polls are so favorable for Democrats--that pinko Zogby did them. (I'm being facetious, of course, but Zogby has been known to produce results that often tilt slightly towards Democratic candidates over most other polls.)

Posted at 12:11 PM in 2006 Elections - House | Technorati

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Comments

How about those nasty numbers for Bruce Braley in IA-01? That has to be an outlier. Whalen is beating Braley by more than Nussle used to beat his unfunded, third-rate challengers. The results of that poll make me question the accuracy of any of them.

Posted by: Mark at October 4, 2006 06:25 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I was thinking that maybe that was a poll from IA-02( Jim Leach's district) rather than IA-01. IA-01 is a heavily Democratic district with a very right wing Republican running. That poll can't be for IA-01.

Posted by: Sean at October 4, 2006 08:21 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

My reaction to the poll in Ia-1 was similar. I think it is an outlier result, not an accurate result. BRALEY has consistently enjoyed a large statistically significant lead over WHALEN. If something significant has altered the chemistry of this race I would be interested in learning what it was.

Posted by: walja at October 4, 2006 08:40 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Another race worth mentioning is Minn-6. No candidate is better poised to capitalize on the FOLEY scandal, other than those running against the principal actors, than Patty WETTERLING. It gives her a wedge issue against social conservative hard-liner Michelle BRACHMAN. WETTERLING is so strongly tied to the missing and exploited child issue that she should get a bump in the polls courtesy of the FOLEY scandal which rages on. If we are lucky, she might ride the bump to victory.

Posted by: walja at October 4, 2006 08:58 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

LOL, a third comment afterall. Where is Wi-8? Posted extensive thoughts on Wi-8 on the what races are you interested thread on how KAGEN is poised to defeat GARD and to read this article, it is not even on the map.

Posted by: walja at October 4, 2006 09:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Let's say for the sake of argument that these polls are accurate and reflect the final result in November. That would give us eleven seats, to which we could probably also add PA-10, NY-24, Tom Delay's seat, and now probably Foley's seat as well. Looks like we're well on the road to 15.

Posted by: X Stryker at October 4, 2006 10:23 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment