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Saturday, October 14, 2006

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Posted by DavidNYC

I hear there's an election coming up soon.

UPDATE: In an update to a story that Swing State Project first covered many months ago, Curt Weldon is now under federal investigation for trading his official influence for lucrative lobbying contract for his daughter. Check it out (via DailyKos). Ah, when bad things happen to bad people. Now Crazy Curt can spend the last month of the campaign answering questions about this. Finally, justice arrives.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Two new polls with contradictory results in NH-02:

Hodes led Bass 48 percent to 39 percent with the other 13 percent undecided in the Becker Institute Inc. poll taken Oct. 6-8.

...

An American Research Group poll had better news for Bass, showing him still out front, 48-42 percent, with 3 percent for Libertarian Ken Blevens and 7 percent undecided.

Posted at 04:00 PM in Open Threads | Technorati

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Come on, you haven't given anymore fundraising figures in the past weeks. I got one for you, Rick O'Donnell, despite having a 300 hundred thousand dollar Bush fundraiser, raised 663,690 dollars last quarter. Former president of the Colorado State Senate Ed Perlmutter raise 1,031,300 last quarter.

Posted by: ArkDem at October 13, 2006 07:06 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Sherrod Brown outraised Mike DeWine last quarter. Brown raised 3.1 Million while DeWine raised 2.66 million. We're gonna bury this schmuck.

Posted by: nada at October 13, 2006 07:18 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well today the NY-19 got a major boost --

For most of the night a diary (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/13/164841/30 ) was on the DailyKos recommended list only to be knocked off in the last minutes before 9PM... kinda sad.

Anyway it says that Sue Kelly (the NY-19 incumbent) probably learned of the Foley scandal in 2000, but was told to keep quite because a sex scandal in Florida during a election year would no doubt lead Al Gore to victory.

Anyway...

-- MrMacMan

Posted by: MrMacMan at October 13, 2006 10:05 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Hang tight, Arkdem--I'll post some fundraising numbers later tonight.

Just have to work on an international security paper in the meantime...

Posted by: James L. at October 13, 2006 10:15 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yeeha, it looks like Crazy Cultist Curt will be going down!
.......................................
Hang in there MrMacMan, I believed even before the Foley scandal that Hall would take out Kelly and now I believe that even more so. I've got a lazy- voter longtime friend in the District (Dutchess Co.). I've asked him for a birthday present: actually going and voting on Nov 7th. He'll have no problem voting Democratic down the line, plus its alot easier for him that way..LOL.

Posted by: Predictor at October 13, 2006 10:32 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

For 10 years, nobody has been able to touch rep. Anne Northup here in Louisville - and trust me, it's not because she's doing any good. It's because her spin machine knows no shame and her attacks have no limits. And along comes John Yarmuth and they just won't take ANY SH*T!! The election is locked at 48-48 - the first time ever that Anne has ever lost the lead. Her attacks just arent working and Yarmuth refuses to take the bait-- he just mocks her for being ridiculous - http://youtube.com/watch?v=waFeZ8n77F8 http://youtube.com/watch?v=qdTsAjPtaOI

this campaign is the coolest thing to come to Louisville since the baseball bat.

It's hilarious, it's inspiring, and as things keep heating up it's looking more and more like it'll be going blue Nov. 7. Go John Yarmuth!!!!

Posted by: voter in the ville at October 14, 2006 12:20 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Today we're going to have a little experiment in netroots participatory democracy over at Firedoglake. I hope you'll be part of it by coming over at 2 PM (est/11 AM in California) and hitting the comments button which is where the action will be. There's
no special Blue America guest candidate this weekend. We're getting down to the nitty-gritty and I wanted to have a different kind of discussion today. If you're a regular here, you know about our song and our customized versions and videos. I've been hearing from people around the country that they've started finding the ads based on the song on the radio and seeing TV spots as well. This morning I had a call from a friend in Minnesota telling me she had heard the spot aired for Wendy Wilde and today I saw the TV spot that Carol Voisin is running in Oregon. I've heard that Jerry McNerney's campaign, Coleen Rowley's campaign, Stacey Tallitsch's campaign, Mike McGraw's campaign and several others are also running it. Take a look at the Voisin ad and see what's she's done to the end of it.

If you recall, we started an Adopt A District project and last week a generous donor sent in $5,000 and adopted IL-14, John Laesch's race against Denny Hastert. Jacquie, the Blue America media buyer, worked long and hard to put together a plan to make an impact in a part of the district where we felt John's campaign could make some headway. We've bought 4 stations outside of the area where John seems to be making his major efforts (the eastern edge of the district from Elgin to Aurora). We'll be running around 230 one-minute radio spots on WDKB, a lite A/C station targeting women 30 and over in the DeKalb area, WLBK a news and information station that blankets DeKalb County, WAJK, another adult contemporary station targeting women 30 and up and WLPO, a local news/talk station, both in Oglesby. The spots are spread out between 6 AM and 7 PM for 7 days ending on election day. Jacquie put together a similar program for local Connecticut bloggers who raised their own money to help Chris Murphy beat the odious Nancy Johnson in the 5th CD.

We're also deploying the radio spots to help our candidates in OH-02 (Dr. Victoria Wulsin vs Mean Jean Schmidt) and CA-25 (Robert Rodriguez vs Buck McKeon). That leaves almost enough money for one more district. Let's choose it today. Everyone's entitled to make a pitch and to offer incentives to get people to vote for their candidate. Ann had these incredible "Time to Throw Musgrave Out" clocks up and she'll send them to the first 20 people who vote for Angie Paccione. Oh, this is how you vote: You know the Blue America ActBlue Page by now-- you should; you've helped us raise almost $280,000 so far. Drop some dough into the Blue America PAC slot. BUT... here's the catch: if you want us to buy the spots for Charlie Brown add .02; if you want Chris Carney add .03; if you want John Hall add .04; if you want Eric Massa add .05; if you want Angie Paccione add .06; for David Roth add .07; for Bill Winter add .08 and for Steve Porter add .09. When we finish here today, we'll have another district.

I know you may there are plenty of Jay Fawcett fans here-- me included-- and Jay is in a dead-heat with a right wing extremist in a very Republican area. And yesterday the retiring Republican incumbent, Joel Hefley officially stated that he could not support the GOP candidate for his seat. So why don't we run our campaign for Jay? Well, the ads all talk about it being time to throw faithless incumbents out who have voted for Bush's hideous corporate agenda. The ads don't lend themselves to open districts like CO-05 or IA-01, where our man Bruce Braley is running a strong progressive campaign.

Anyway, let's discuss this and figure out who we where we want to deploy the ads. I'm really anxious to hear everyone's opinions and strategies. There is no absolute right and wrong in these matters. Don't hold back.

Posted by: DownWithTyranny at October 14, 2006 11:33 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

WI-8

"Things just keep getting better". As reported at Wispolitics.com Democratic nominee Dr. Steve KAGEN continues to lead GOP Assembly Speaker John GARD in the normally Republican leaning 8th Congressional District. And the lead is slowly and continuously growing. I know this district extremely well. As I have posted previously, the Democrats have windows of opportunity in this district in years where national issues drive the electorate like we are witnessing in 2006.

"[Paul] Maslin, of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates, conducts polling for Kagen, as well as Dem AG candidate Kathleen Falk and Fair Wisconsin, the leading opposition group to the anti-gay marriage amendment."

"The latest poll conducted by Maslin's firm in the race showed Kagen holding an 8 percentage-point lead over Gard in mid-September with a margin of error just more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. The survey was of 600 likely general election voters in the district. Another poll from the Dem-leaning Mellman Group, released around the same time as Maslin's, showed Kagen with a 4 percentage-point lead over Gard."

It should be noted this KAGEN lead was established pre-FOLEY scandal. And over the past four polls I have seen has slowly and steadily risen.

There are several reasons that KAGEN has taken the lead. First, John GARD is the Tom DeLAY of Wisconsin politics and he has zero appeal to cross-over Democrats and little appeal to Independents. Second, KAGEN is a first time office seeker which has denied the GARD campaign the abiliity to develop negative advertizing based on past votes and positions. He has been reduced to wasting money on ineffective ads like his pathetic "Dr. Millionaire" ad that does nothing to hurt KAGEN or aid GARD. Third, Appleton natives, including former Outagamie Co. (Appleton) GOP Chair Bruce CHUDACOFF have announced they are voting for KAGEN over GARD. KAGEN is well liked and personable, whereas GARD is high strung, abrupt, and comes across as slick not natural. KAGEN essentially reduces GOP phermones with his personality, something that GARD on his best day cannot dream of. Fourth, KAGEN is a millionaire and has not been shy about putting his money into his campaign which has effectively neutralized the typical cash advantage the GOP enjoys in CD 8. And last, Mark GREEN's gubernatorial campaign is faltering under repeated hammer blows connected to illegal//tainted contributions. With the top of the ticket faltering, the lower level offices are on their own and GARD was clearly intending to ride GREEN's coattails in GREEN's old district all the way to Washington. Problem is, there aren't any that are detectable.

This district should be moved from the no clear favorite into the leans Democratic column.

Posted by: walja at October 14, 2006 09:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Here is some proof that we really need to work harder at getting our voters to the polls: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2006/10/15/0112/7501

Posted by: Sean at October 15, 2006 01:14 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

So, this is kind of off-topic, but I got a call from my mother in Connecticut an hour ago, and I just need to vent.
The other day, my mother went outside in the morning, and her Ned Lamont lawn sign had been pulled out and dismantled. So, she stapled it back together and put it back out. Then, this morning, her sign was completely missing. Apparently there were other Lamont signs missing from the street, and now there was an abundance of Lieberman signs. Needless to say, my mother was very upset. She hung her Lamont bumper sticker in her front window, but I've had to ask for another few lawn signs for her. She literally lives a half a block from the polling place, right on a main road with a LOT of traffic.
The Lieberyouth thugs are apparently out in full force on the streets of Milford after dark. Grrrrrrrrrrr.

Posted by: Larissa at October 15, 2006 01:54 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Larissa,

Try to somehow catch them in the act. If your mother's sign was on private property, then that is trespassing and they can be arrested. It's legal to pull up signs on public property, but not in someone's lawn!

Posted by: nada at October 15, 2006 03:26 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

2 polls came out on Swing State Project's favorite district (NH-2):

The ARG shows Bass leading Hodes 48-42
Becker Institute (NH insiders) show Hodes ahead 48-39, but there's a pretty high MOE.

That being said, Hodes has really closed the gap and the best spin the Repubs can put on it now is that the seat only leans their way.

Posted by: dpinzow at October 15, 2006 05:53 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

I've been volunteering with the Judy Feder campaign in VA-10. It seems to be gathering momentum, with the race being upgraded in various analyses and mentioned on prominent blogs. The Majority Watch poll showing the gap narrowing to 5 points caused some excitement too. Of course it's still going to require a big Democratic wave to make this one go our way.

The Washington Post's endorsement of Frank Wolf yesterday was unfortunate. I've written a letter to the editor criticizing the description of Wolf as someone with a "zeal for human rights".

Posted by: KCinDC at October 15, 2006 06:20 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Great write-up KCinDC, Plus,WaPo's slanted & biased article on VA-10 is not worthy Journalism, I thought I was going to puke: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/13/AR2006101301510.html
It sounds like pro-Wolf campaign spin versus honest Journalism. I've never had much faith in WaPo, and they've always supported Wolfy. Given the latest polls in the Senate race, NoVa looks strongly in the blue column, to Feder's advantage.

Posted by: Predictor at October 15, 2006 08:51 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One statistic I've heard (but haven't actually been able to confirm) that gives me hope for Feder is that when Mark Warner was elected governor in 2001 he lost VA-10 by 9 points, but when Tim Kaine was elected governor in 2005 he won it by 4 points. That seems to indicate a big change in the demographics over those 4 years.

Posted by: KCinDC at October 15, 2006 10:01 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes KCinDC, those stats are correct and have given me the same hope. Plus Byrne-D only lost VA-10 by 0.71% and Deeds-D only lost it by 2.29%. Kaine had some good coattails. I'm not sure on the demographic changes in this purported growth corridor, as there were 487,201 registered voters in 2001 versus 460,638 as of 9/06. Of course that doesn't account for changes in taste.

Posted by: Predictor at October 15, 2006 11:30 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictor, are those stats (results from the 2001 and 2005 by congressional district) online anywhere?

I'm surprised that the number of voters has decreased. I thought the area's population was supposed to be growing.

I spoke to someone who works for the Webb campaign managing outreach to the Muslim and Asian communities (the Vietnamese community has been energized by Webb's wife, Hong Le Webb), and he said that those communities have grown significantly in the 10th District. I think he was talking about the last 5 years.

Posted by: KCinDC at October 16, 2006 09:11 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Well since David is a lazy bumb of a lawyer who can't seem to post anymore 3rd quarter fundraising numbers, I thought I'd get the ball rolling with a cool stat.

3Q Fundraising Totals: OH-02

COH
Wulsin (D) $263,470
Schmidt (R) $224,357
http://disclosure.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00411777/244705/
http://disclosure.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00410647/244290/

BWAHAHAHAHA! Take that Cruella.

Posted by: nada at October 16, 2006 09:19 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

One more for ya

3Q Fundraising Totals: WY-AL

COH
Trauner (D) $333,032
Cubin (R) $325,000
http://disclosure.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00415588/243808/
http://disclosure.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00290155/244192/

Posted by: nada at October 16, 2006 09:28 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

3Q fundraising for NY-19:

COH:
Sue Kelly (R) $1,195,154John Hall (D) $245,446

In the 3Q Hall outraised Kelly:
$214,382 to $200,364.

I think the fact that Kelly is getting less money, is spending more money and still on the downslope is a big thing to point out. Even after injecting the race with media buys its not clear if the voters were swayed one bit. It is clear however that the voters didn't like to hear that Sue Kelly was Page Board Chair from 1999 to 2001 when many others knew of Foley's actions.

Also I believe the other large factor in this race is that Majority Action is spending $500,000 in on ad buys that this race absolutely needs. Their ad is great -- its hits where we need it to hit and should sway the voters.

http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00294900/244429/
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/dcdev/forms/C00417451/244549/
http://www.recordonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061013/NEWS/610130386

Posted by: MrMacMan at October 16, 2006 11:35 AM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Yes KCinDC, Virginia posts election results and registration figures not only by municipality, but also by congressional district:
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/Index.html

If I remember correctly they purge rolls every 4 years, so, those 2001 registration #'s were reflecting the 2000 Prez election year registration figures, that may be the reason it has dropped off.

Posted by: Predictor at October 16, 2006 01:56 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Thanks, Predictor. I'd looked there before, but it seemed that the breakdowns by congressional district were only for years when there was a congressional election (that is, not gubernatorial election years). In fact, I still don't see the 2001 numbers for how Warner did in VA-10, but maybe I'll have time to poke around some more tonight.

Posted by: KCinDC at October 16, 2006 04:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

CA-11: The San Francisco Chronicle has endorsed Jerry McNerney referring to Pombo as an "embarassment": http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/10/17/EDG6PKDVMQ1.DTL
Add this to the endorsements from the San Jose Mercury News, Modesto Bee and Independent of Pleasanton.

Posted by: Predictor at October 17, 2006 01:42 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Predictor, do you know whether any of those papers have endorsed Pombo in the past? It's hard to know whether the endorsements are surprising.

Posted by: KCinDC at October 17, 2006 07:36 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment

Howdy KCinDC, how's the Feder campaign going? On your question:The Modesto Bee has endorsed Pombo in the past. It is doubtful the SF Chron or SJ Mercury News would have ever endorsed him, but the point with these papers is the level of "scathing" they wrote in, in regarding their emphatically negative description of Pombo. It is unlikely they were ever so blunt in the past.
As far as The Independent of Pleasanton, not sure but likely they may have endorsed Pombo in the past.

The Stockton Record will issue their endorsement for Congressional Races on Oct.25. Most of he City of Stockton is not in the district but the surrounding population of San Joaquin County (Pombo country) is. It is my understanding that they always endorse Pombo. They have endorsed Shwarzenegger-R, Poochigian-R for AG, MCPherson-R for SoS and Poizner-R for Ins. Commish. They usually endorse republicans but managed to endorse Garamendi-D for LG, Lockyer-D for Treasurer and Chiang-D for Controller.
The Sacramento Bee has made the same Statewide Office endorsements as the Stockton Record except that it endorsed Jerry Brown-D for Atty General.
But guess what, they did endorse Charlie Brown-D in CA-04! Kewl. No mention yet of an endorsement in CA-11. But now I'm hopeful given this development. Not sure of their endorsement history but thought it leaned conservative or republic party.
Sacto Bee: http://www.sacbee.com/endorsements

Stockton Rec: http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=NEWS2007

Posted by: Predictor at October 17, 2006 11:44 PM | Permalink | Edit Comment | Delete Comment