NC-Sen: Cooper Maintains His Lead

Public Policy Polling (4/8-11, registered voters, 12/8-9 in parens):

Roy Cooper (D): 41 (39)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 37 (34)

Mike McIntyre (D): 34

Richard Burr (R-inc): 39

(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP seems to be on a quest to test every conceivable Dem against Richard Burr, and this time they threw 7th CD Rep. Mike McIntyre into the mix; despite being unknown to over half the state, McIntyre posts the best performance of any Dem against Burr in PPP’s polling other than state Attorney General Roy Cooper. While McIntyre has not expressed any interest in the Senate race, he would bring some regional strength in a hypothetical match-up; in a head-to-head against Burr, he leads the Republican by 48-33 in Southeastern NC, while Burr and Cooper are tied at 40-40 there.

Still, Cooper is undoubtedly our best bet for this race. He sports a solid 41-20 favorable rating (much better than Burr’s tepid 35-31 rating), and destroys Burr among moderate voters by a 56-21 margin. For those keeping score, this marks the third poll (of four publicly-released ones) showing Cooper in the lead. Luckily for us, Cooper will make a decision on this race “very soon“.

9 thoughts on “NC-Sen: Cooper Maintains His Lead”

  1. I really hope he runs, it would be a landslide scenario similar to what we saw in Virginia and New Mexico last year. Burr is toast!

  2. I think Cooper is more progressive than McIntyre.  Mike’s not a bad fellow, but he has strayed away over the years.  He’s not as conservative as Shuler, but he’s not that far away, either.

  3. And I think that is because Cooper hasn’t yet had to go through all of the political wrangling and position-taking that entails being in the Congress. And McIntyre represents a district that on the federal level is somewhat GOP-friendly (53-47% McCain) so he has to take more conservative stances on issues.

    Cooper would win a primary over nearly anyone else though, no doubt about it, because he has already been elected to statewide office three times. He has done a lot of high-profile work that has made him seem “tough on crime” but also has done work to protect the environment.

  4. McIntyre does represent a moderately conservative area, having been first elected in 1996.  When he was elected, he stated that he wanted to join the Blue Dog coalition so he could find common ground in Congress with the opposition.  He’s not the type of guy that a state party would rally around, but he’s very effective and popular with his constituents.  Mike’s a smart man and is probably better fitted in his district as opposed to representing the state as a whole.

    Roy Cooper has many pluses, and I’d definitely support him in a NC election.  In 2007, there was a lot of speculation that he would run for governor, but he felt compelled to run again as AG.  I think he would have a lot of appeal with the Democratic base and Independent-minded voters.

    The NC GOP party is licking its wounds from the 2008 elections.  Party leadership has not yet stabalized, and Burr has done nothing to assist the GOP.  I’m curious if Pat McCrory from Charlotte may venture out and primary Burr.  He would have a decent chance of defeating Burr.

  5. McCrory is to the left of Burr and can be labeled as a “big city” moderate republican.  As weak as Burr is I doubt he’s all that weak among conservatives who dominate the GOP primary.

  6. I wonder which district he lives in. If its Kissell’s then i wonder if hed take him on. Going from a close Gov. race to a House race is a step down but you never know. But, Sue Myrick use to be mayor of Charlotte and is now in the House. Im sure if McCrory wanted to be in the House bad enough he could always change residency (unless theres some kind of residency requirement law that says you have to live in your district for more than a year and a half before election day).

  7. and he is well-liked among the NC GOP establishment.  He’s been a moderate as a mayor of Charlotte, but when he ran for the Governor’s race he drifted to the right.  I don’t think NC has heard the last from McCrory, either. McCrory’s name recognition is probably higher than Burr’s name recognition.  He’s definitely to the left of Burr, but that’s really not saying that much.  

    I doubt this will happen, and I don’t think the GOP leaders would like it if McCrory would step in UNLESS Burr makes several verbal gaffes.  Burr is not famous for many verbal gaffes, but Burr’s biggest problem is that he’s simply not famous for a man that has been our Senator for 4+ years.  The NC GOP party is somewhat floundering, having only 5 house seats, 1 Senator, the Secretary of Labor, and the Agricultural Commissioner.  

    In fact, I’m not totally convinced that Burr will run for a second term.  If Cooper runs against Burr, and Burr’s poll numbers continue to flounder, I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t pull out in the Fall.  Pure speculation.

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