ID-01: Top GOP Recruit Bows Out

The Idaho GOP has lost its top choice to run against frosh Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick. Idaho state Treasurer Ron Crane has decided not to run for Congress despite sounding like a candidate earlier in the week. From the Idaho Press-Tribune:

Nampa resident and Idaho Treasurer Ron Crane has decided against running for Walt Minnick’s 1st District U.S. Congressional seat in 2010.

Crane, a Republican, told the Idaho Press-Tribune Friday he had made the decision not to run.

“I seriously explored it,” Crane said. “I have come to the conclusion not to run.”

Crane spent the last week hobnobbing with the GOP braintrust in DC, and now I have to wonder if he wasn’t sufficiently impressed by the sorry state of affairs in the Boehner caucus. So make that one bullet dodged for Walt Minnick… but there are undoubtedly plenty more to come.

23 thoughts on “ID-01: Top GOP Recruit Bows Out”

  1. Minnick may have dodged a bullet with Crane opting out, but there are going to be GOP challengers lining up to challenge him (former Rep. Bill Sali, AG Lawrence Wasden, state Sen. John McGee, etc.)

  2. chances of winning the primary greatly. But even against Sali Minnick would only have a 75% chance of winning, and only then if he ran another great campaign like he did last year. Looking at the history of congressional races, Democrats have preformed better in Presidential years for some reasons, despite coattails.

  3. … currently moving thru the legislature would add a full congressional seat to not only DC, but to Utah as well.

    Even if this bill fails to pass, Utah is likely to gain a seat after the 2010 census.

    Does anyone think that that may play a part in the strategy of deciding whether to run against Minnock or to keep your powder dry for a run at a future open seat?

  4. Crane would be going from Idaho statewide office to U.S. House minority caucus freshman.  Probably not the rosiest of deals.

  5. Sali’s only chance of winning the primary is if the field is very crowded. And there are a lot of GOPers looking to run, as a commenter above said… For one top-tier Republican to bow out increases the odds of a smaller field, which should not help Sali.

  6. Are you under the mistaken impression that Walt Minnick represents a district in Utah?

  7. I think that he was the GOP’s best chance of clearing the field and with his profile he would have likely easily dispatched Sali. With him gone the field is wide open for a bunch of lesser profile local Republicans to run allowing Sali to win by with his about 35% base of popularity.

  8. From all I’ve read Idaho will fall far short of getting a 3rd seat in 2012, but is almost guaranteed to get it in 2022.

  9. Though I have heard that Idaho is seeing more Democrats moving in in recent years.  It’s not out of the question than in a decade or two the state may get a bit more favorable for Dems.

  10. antoo mentioned the dc voting act and utah, which didn;t make sense since minnick’s from idaho.

  11. I’ve seen Utah’s plans to invade Idaho for the express purpose of stealing its congressional district in case they don’t get their district 😀

  12. the Boise area is increasingly becoming a high tech industry area, and its getting lots of liberal emigrants from the west coast, even Canyon County, once a bastion, is bluening, Obama improved like 12 percentage points there and Minnick held Sali to a shocking 57%. Ada County, (Boise), is moving Democratic even faster. Those areas, if they turned pretty blue, could really make idaho competitive.

  13. He only managed 60% in the 2008 primary against a neophyte opponent who only raised about $70,000. Someone like the state Attorney General with a high enough profile should be able to pull enough support together to beat Sali this time regardless of how split the primary is.

  14. one prominent statewide official has dropped off. he was perhaps the Republicans best shot at getting a strong unified figure against Sali, who, with CfG help could probably easily get 40% of the vote in a split field with weak Republicans.

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