SSP Daily Digest: 5/19

AL-07: Former Selma Mayor James Perkins (who was defeated in his attempt to seek a third term in 2008) is jumping into the open seat race here. He is likely to draw support away from Terri Sewell, Artur Davis’s preferred successor, also a Selma native.

AL-Gov: Speaking of good ol’ Artur, he’s released an internal poll which shows him up 56-26 over Ron Sparks and 54-25 over Sue Bell in the Dem primary. He also purports to lead Republican Bradley Byrne by a 43-38 margin. I’m finding it hard to believe that a congressman has such high name rec (59-6 for Davis among Dems statewide!). But the best checksum: This survey has Obama’s favorables at 58%. Last month, SUSA had them at just 48%. Which do you think is more likely? In other AL-Gov news, state Sen. Roger Bedford (D) says he won’t run.

IA-Gov: State Auditor David Vaudt, one of only two Republicans holding statewide office in Iowa, has declined to challenge incumbent Gov. Chet Culver next year.

NC-Sen: Both Reps. Bob Etheridge and Mike McIntyre are leaving the door open to a Senate bid, with McIntyre sounding more enthused. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is “not considering” the race, Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker is “not looking at running,” and state Rep. Grier Martin claims his “decision to decline a chance to run against Elizabeth Dole was also not to run in 2010.”

NV-Gov: Jim Gibbons’ poll numbers are just horrendous – in a new Mason-Dixon survey for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, 54% say they would “definitely vote to replace” him. Gibbons’ campaign manager claims things are lookin’ up, because his boss’s approvals were 25-69 in a January Reno Gazette poll but are an awesome 17-52 in this one.

NV-Sen: Meanwhile, the same poll finds pretty lousy numbers for Harry Reid as well, but better than Gibbons’. Reid gets 45% “definitely replace,” but his approvals are “only” 38-50. The big difference, of course, is that the GOP doesn’t really have any strong candidates to challenge Reid, while plenty of folks are lining up to take a whack at Gibbons.

FL-CFO: Checking in with an old friend, it looks like Annette Taddeo is considering a run to replace Alex Sink as Florida’s Chief Financial Officer.

Redistricting: CQ has a story on five key races that could affect congressional redistricting. Roll Call has published the second half of its two-part series on the same subject (part one here). And finally, the National Conference of State Legislatures is holding the first in a series of training seminars on redistricting in San Francisco, June 11-14.

30 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 5/19”

  1. isn’t a big improvement over Shuler. He’s got a worse voting record then Allen Boyd. I’d prefer pretty much any other candidate over those two. We’ve lost our two best candidates (Martin and Cooper), how about Marshall or Blue? They’ve wanted to be Senator in the past, why not now with much better odds?

  2. Chu seems to be seen as the slight favorite (especially given Cedillo’s, umm, issues), though anything could happen–even Pleitz coming up the middle.

    Oh, and all of Gov. Hoover’s ballot propositions will be up for defeat as well. How much money could have been saved in the budget by not going through this waste of time?

  3. I was just thinking yesterday that she would be great to follow in Sink’s foot steps.  She was a great candidate for Congress and it was too bad the clowns we already have in Congress from South Florida didn’t give her and our other two South Florida candidates more support.  I hope she pulls the trigger on this.

  4. The same Nevada poll also has favorable/unfavorable numbers for Ensign.  I was extremely disappointed and surprised at how well he polled:  53-18 (net +35 favorability).  Those are unbelievably good numbers, near unbeatable-like favorability numbers for an incumbent.  I had thought Ensign would be our top target in 2012 (and one of our very few potential targets) considering that he didn’t perform that strongly against a weak challenger in 2006, Nevada has moved blue very fast in the last few years, and he is probably the most ideologically out of step with his state of all Republican senators.  It’s still a long ways away of course and things can change, but I never imagined he is that popular.  Any Nevadans that can explain this?

  5. He’s been an ineffective majority leader. Poll numbers like this will only encourage him to be even more cautious and centrist. Also he’ll be 71 at the end of this term. Shelley Berkley would be a good candidate. I hope she realizes if she ever wants to move up 2010 is her only chance. She’s a New Dem, not a liberal bombthrower, but she’ll still be better than Reid. From now on the majority leader should be a liberal from a safe state, like Leahy.  

  6. but I missed yesterdays conversation about Michigan redistricting in the Daily Digest.  12-2 Democrat is absolutely impossible, but, inspired by IHateBush’s comments to my last redistricting Michigan diary, I think that I may have succesfully created a workable 11-3 map that, in a neutral year, would probably support all 11 Democrats.  It’s really ugly (although there isnt any touch points or snaking tendrils).  But its better looking that say, Florida or Pennsylvania.  I’ll diary it soon.  

  7. connect Eastern Kentucky where it is Appilacian and very West Virginia like with Lexington and Frankfurt.  That’d create a good Dem leaning district at the local level no doubt and should be no problem for a Dem to hold.

    Dem Gov, Dem House, Rep Senate, maybe.  It’d shore up both incumbents anyway.

  8. But either McIntyre or Shuler does. Would people put up with it if it meant defeating Burr?

  9. ANY Democrat is better than Burr I really trust people on this blog to be smarter than that. If not, they need to reevaluate their priorities. I mean I understand and agree that we could do better than those two both ideologically and electorally but jeez if you want X candidate or bust you’re not really thinking pragmatically.  

  10. But I think they could probably kiss goodbye to any hope of netroots support.

    The netroots trend left and McIntyre and Shuler have a record, so they can’t claim to be further left than they are in the way Jon Tester did. Plus there seems to be a trend across the blogosphere (even at Dkos, which as the biggest blog wields disproportionate influence, but especially at FDL, which is probably #2), beginning in 2007 but especially once it became clear 60 votes didn’t solve everything, to focus on only the best candidates.

    That’s not going to kill their candidacy. God knows both could get PAC cash, money from the North Carolina banking sector and tobacco cash. But I doubt that they’d have much of an online presence or a great activist-led ground operation, and I’d expect a 20% floor even for a wholly unqualified primary challenger from the left.

    Personally, I think my attitude would be effective indifference towards the race. I’d be happy to see Burr beaten, sure, but I wouldn’t stay up to find out the results.

  11. I’m not very keen on either of these guys.  I just can’t get excited over Shuler or McIntyre.  I would take McIntyre over Shuler, but mainly because McIntyre has been in the House for 12+ years and Shuler has only started his 2nd term, plus there’s a good chance that we would lose his district plus he would lose against Burr.  I’ve lived in NC for all my 38 years, and I just don’t see the Democrats being very enthusiastice with supporting Shuler.  Shuler is a Democrat because his grandmother told him that he should be a Democrat.  He would not be a very reliable vote for the Dems, and if he got fed up with D.C., I could see him switch his affiliation to a Republican.  His voting record in the House is just not what I like to see from a Democrat.  He’s a fine representative for a conservative district, but he’s probably a bit to the right of the NC electorate.

    McIntyre is not as conservative, but he really doesn’t excite me much either.  Sure, I’d vote for him, but he will have a hard time exciting the Democratic base.  

    The news about Grier Martin disappoints me…I like Grier.  The other candidate that I would like would be Richard Moore, but I don’t know how much damage he created for himself last year because of his fight with Bev Perdue for the Dem. nomination for Governor.  I voted for Richard, but from what I’ve seen and from talking to an elected state official, many Democrats are fairly upset with Richard right now.  He gave a lukewarm endorsement at best for Bev Perdue.

  12. We’re hardly a bunch of purity ideologues on SSP, we want to win, and anytime the Democrat is an improvement over the Republican, it’s an easy call.

    Given Burr, you’d have to search long and hard to find a Democrat who would actually make him look good.

  13. She ran surprisingly strongly in a race where she received almost no support, getting the same numbers as Lincoln Diaz-Balart’s (admittedly pretty ethically dodgy) opponent.

    Plus she’s a pretty strong progressive. She’d certainly be a nice option to have on the bench for future statewide races.

  14. Leave out the retirees, Gregg and Voinovich, and you’re right.  Grassley is competitive for the title, I guess.  Nevada really swung very far left for Obama-McCain; I’m not yet confident that will be durable.  But for the time being, Ensign probably is the most out-of-step GOP senator left.


    We, meanwhile, have a huge list on our side, starting with Byron Dorgan and Bob Byrd.

    Oh, and I am relieved to realize that it’s probably Susan Collins who is farthest out of step on the other side.  Whew.

  15. If he is thinking about running for president part of me wonders if he believes he will struggle to get reelected despite these numbers. Particulary if Obama is carrying the state in 2012 by similar numbers to last year.

  16. Would be to get in and for Shuler or McIntyre to join him thus helping the base warm to him again pretty quickly.

  17. not 2010, so it’s possible he won’t be running for re-election to the Senate in 2012. And if he runs for President in 2012, doesn’t get any traction in the GOP primary, and returns to Nevada before the filing deadline, that’s likely to hurt him too (a la Dodd 2008).

  18. But a primary challenge from the left based specifically on his uselessness as a majority leader might make him more focused on winning a few more cloture votes. And the stress might also push him out and let Schumer (who’s far too corporate-friendly for my liking but doesn’t suffer from delusions of collegiality) take over.

    Or Durbin, although the Illinois thing may preclude that, unfortunately.

  19. I had no idea his numbers were that horrible.  He’s lucky he has nobody running against him.

    But damn, I’d love to see him lose.  I just hate him that much as Majority Leader and now I see why he is that way, his state absolutely hates him and we’re stuck with him because he’s the Majority Leader.

  20. Who cares if he hails from IL? He’s a great leader who stands up for what he believes in and would be a definite improvement over Reid.  

  21. the most popular guy on most football teams is the backup quarterback, who everyone thinks would do better than the incumbent.

    it’s really hard to be the majority leader.  balancing the wishes of 59 senators, the speaker, and, most importantly, the president, is an almost impossible act.

    does anyone really think that durbin or schumer would be leading to significantly different votes…or ignoring the filibuster, whihc is a part of our process which will probably not change in any significant way in our lifetimes?

    and someone here hopes he loses? with all due respect, that’s crazy.

  22. Especially as I trust his progressive bona-fides more than Obama’s.

    Still, there would be dissent raised and Schumer got enough Senators elected that if it wasn’t a coronation he could easily sweep in.

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