One thing we do a lot of at SSP is speculate, and a favorite topic of speculation is what House districts seem like the most vulnerable ones for each party, and most likely to be pickups. We can go one better than mere speculation, today, though, as the DCCC and NRCC disclosed their own top 2010 targets for a recent piece with National Journal‘s CongressDaily. In each case, they gave a top tier, and then added some other next-best opportunities.
For the Democrats, according to DCCC exec director Jon Vogel:
| District | Incumbent | PVI |
|---|---|---|
| DE-AL | Castle | D+7 |
| FL-10 | Young | R+1 |
| LA-02 | Cao | D+25 |
| MI-11 | McCotter | R+0 |
| PA-06 | Gerlach | D+4 |
| MN-06 | Bachmann | R+7 |
| OH-02 | Schmidt | R+13 |
| TX-10 | McCaul | R+10 |
And for the GOP, according to NRCC political director Brian Walsh:
| ID-01 | Minnick | R+18 |
| MD-01 | Kratovil | R+13 |
| NH-01 | Shea-Porter | D+0 |
| OH-01 | Driehaus | D+1 |
| VA-02 | Nye | R+5 |
| VA-05 | Perriello | R+5 |
| AL-02 | Bright | R+16 |
| AL-05 | Griffith | R+12 |
| CO-04 | Markey | R+6 |
| FL-08 | Grayson | R+2 |
| FL-24 | Kosmas | R+4 |
| MS-01 | Childers | R+14 |
| OH-15 | Kilroy | D+1 |
Interesting choices for the Dems, suggesting that they’re confident about having open seats in DE-AL and PA-06, and maybe even FL-10 (but maybe they aren’t confident about Mark Kirk vacating IL-10?). MI-11 is a solid pick based on last year’s performance (both at the presidential level and by McCotter), but they’ll need to step up their candidate recruitment there. For the GOP, their picks seem about right; the biggest surprise, though, may be that they’re touting challenges to the Virginia freshmen above a challenge to Bobby Bright, who more than anyone else seems to face the problem of a drop in African-American turnout in his district in an off-year election.
OH-02 on our side, probably. Unless Jean steps up her gaffe machine. And of course, DE-AL and FL-10 if the incumbents don’t retire, but even so, with our current candidates, they’d be at worst relegated to third-tier opportunities.
On their side: MS-01 and NH-01? Are they crazy?
Seems that AL-02 and AL-05 have replaced GA-08 and GA-12 as far as GOP targets in the South.
I can understand the reasoning, it is just surprising to finally see those two seats not listed. Barrow and Marshall should be fine until after the census when the GOP will likely try again to throw them out.
There were several races in California where GOP incumbents barely hung on (Lungren, Calvert, Bilbray), even though these races were not seen as highly competitive. Plus, Obama narrowly won all of those districts. I wonder why the DCCC has not placed them in the top or second tier…
First half is a huge “You better” as far as targeting. MN-6 is no real surprise. OH-2 is a bit shocking. As for TX-10, let’s roll. The Dem will probably perform better in the rural areas in an off year, but have smaller turn out in travis and Harris. Again, the trick to the district is convincing the straight ticket Republicans in Harris county to stay home or some how switch (and yes, this is a VERY straight ticket area, they will hear you, like what you say, know your name, and won’t even look at your race when they get in the voting booth).
As for the R targets, for some reason I feel confident about Markey in CO-4. Glenn Nye surprised me by winning in 2008 and I kinda forgot about him quickly afterward as though he had always been there or something. MS-1, they know this is their last opportunity to go after that district before Childers is safe for life, including with a better district in 2012.
Bachman and Schmidt both seem less vulnerable to me than some of the CA reps who did not face particularly tough challenges last time. For whatever reason, their districts have supported Bachman and Schmidt even after putting their feet in their mouths and even against well funded challengers. Not saying we shouldn’t take another shot at them, but they do seem lower priority than the CA races.
Republicans are going to have a tough time unseating Glenn Nye. He’s fundraising like a madman, he’s staking out a position as a moderate Dem, and he’s been doing a lot on veterans’ issues. Currently their only candidate is former VB Republican party chair Chuck Smith, who is not going to get anywhere. State Sen. Frank Wagner might run, or outgoing VB Sheriff Paul Lanteigne, but at this point, they’re the only ones that could make it a race.
But good that some offense is still possible. Frankly, pretty amazing there are as many as five top-tier shots after the gains of the last two cycles.
I figured he’d be their number one target.
I’m really surprised they’d presume to have such a great shot at unseating CSP in NH-01 that they’d rank her above Bright, Griffith, etc. I really don’t think Steve Driehaus is in that much trouble either, considering he’s running against the guy the district just threw out last year.