NJ-Gov: Second Poll Has Corzine Nosing Ahead; SSP Moves to “Tossup”

Democracy Corps (D) (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 38 (40)

Chris Daggett (I): 14 (11)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s the second poll this week which has shown Jon Corzine with the slimmest of leads. And, as happened on Tuesday, there’s also another poll alongside this one showing Corzine just behind.

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 43

Chris Daggett (I): 14

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±4%)

Unfortunately, this is SUSA’s first poll of NJ-Gov, so we have no trendlines here. But they’re seeing the same thing as everyone else – a very close race:

Back when we last changed our rating on this race, we were at the point on the Pollster chart where the distance between the red and blue lines had been getting wider and wider, and was in fact at the widest it had ever been – “peak Christie,” you might call it. At the time, we felt that this race exhibited a number of signs that set it apart from the usual “unloved Jersey Dem comes back in the end” storyline. Yet we did conclude with this remark:

This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.

Well, things have changed. True, Corzine’s popularity still sucks, and so does the economy. But it turns out Chris Christie wound up being a whole lot suckier. His non-stop parade of ethical lapses and his utter failure to articulate any kind of vision for the Garden State have proven that as a candidate – dare I say it? – he’s a lightweight. Even the conservative Wall Street Journal has hammered him for his “empty” campaign. In retrospect, though, I suppose we shouldn’t have expected much more than this from a handpicked Karl Rove-brand US Attorney.

The other factor, of course, is the emergence of independent Chris Daggett, who has almost certainly been siphoning off a good helping of anti-incumbent discontent. SUSA, interestingly, shows that similar proportions of folks who voted for Corzine in 2005 and his Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, are defecting to Daggett. But both my intuition and Daggett’s overall trendlines make me think that if he weren’t in the race, plenty of Democrats would still be defecting but fewer Republicans would be. In other words, Daggett offers an escape valve for some anti-Corzine votes that would otherwise go to Christie.

Add in Corzine’s considerable money advantage and it’s enough for us to conclude that this race is anybody’s game. So we’re moving NJ-Gov back to “Tossup.” Election night should be a wild ride.

43 thoughts on “NJ-Gov: Second Poll Has Corzine Nosing Ahead; SSP Moves to “Tossup””

  1. I feel like Corzine’s internals must be pretty nice if so many high-profile Dems are out there betting he’ll win (and passing on doing so for Deeds).

  2. I recrunched the numbers for men vs woman

    I was very conservative in my estimate giving woman a 51 to 49 edge over men considering that PPP did 53 to 47 and CNN exit polls had 54 to 46.

    The new results

    Christie 42%

    Corzine  41%

    Daggett  14%

    Other     1%

    Undecided 2%

    Corzine can absolutely win this if he keeps pushing the mamograms issue.

    Tossup Babbyyyyyyy!!!!!

  3. but this site has many posters that keep up with the best pollsters going; does anyone here know of a reputable pollster in florida that polls local races? once again sorry for being off topic but a friend of mine is running in a local election and this info could prove helpful; a firm in either orlando and jacksonville would probably most helpful BUT any good pollster in the state would be fine

  4. about this race on their programs and help excite the democratic base in New Jersey. I’m sure Maddow can find tons of skeletons on Chris Christie which will get more dems out to vote who usually sit these off year elections out. We have to win this one. Since Rothenberg refuses change this election from Lean takeover to Tossup, Rothenberg reliability in predicting elections has dropped a lot as far as Im concerned. Even Rasmussen’s analysis is calling this race a tossup and is saying Corzine could win.

  5. That would be beyond lame.  “Hi, I only campaign for guys in the lead” is pitiful enough, but more than that, it’s a complete insult at Virginia.

    He may be that stupid, but doubtful.

  6. with Corzine back in the summer.

    And it’s not an insult, or if it is, it’s only to Deeds.  There’s no way the President is campaigning for everyone, so you have to prove your worth.  Deeds didn’t do that.

  7. to make sure that I didn’t misread a read a comment stating that the president of the United States is “stupid.”

    I was at least able to infer from this that President Obama is stupid in comparison to you. Certainly all of us here can agree that that much is obvious. But my question is, who else is he stupid compared to? Am I smarter than him, I’m wondering.

  8. Deeds stated strategy for the remaining campaign is to insolate the race from NATIONAL POLITICS and make it all about Virginia.  Why in the world would Obama come and stump for him when Deeds has made it clear he doesn’t want him.  Deeds and his staff are the morons that campaigned for white southerners votes and ignored NoVA…. So he doesn’t deserve to win.  End of story.

  9. It’s not summer.  It’s the homestretch.

    The point here is the last seven days of the campaign.

    Obama didn’t come to Georgia for the runoff, which was balless, but there was no other place that he did go to.

    There are exactly two Gov races, one a plane ride away, and the other just across the bridge from his house.  

  10. think Deeds would look at the Obama/Warner/Webb/Kaine roadmap to winning in Virginia right?  

  11. Obama isn’t well liked in VA right now.  Unless he campaigns for 72 hours or something and makes VA uber important he’s not going to create the turnout needed for Deeds to win esp. since Deeds hasn’t been trying to get turnout.  He’s been trying to persuade fox news watchers.  So Obama can go endorse a lame candidate or he can stay far away.  Either way deeds is going to lose.  So why should he spend his capital on that?  McDonnell has run the better race and VA has a lot of indies that either like devided gov or are just crumpy as hell and like to stick it to the contrlling party in washington cuz they’ve been doing it for decades now.

  12. I’d bet half the national pollsters operate out of Florida offices. The numbers may have a 202 area code but they ring on the beach in a no-income-tax state.

    Hamilton Campaigns operates out of Fernandina Beach as well as DC.

    Schroth Eldon & Associates is out of Sarasota as well as DC.

    Between the two, they rep about every major and most of the downticket Dems in the state. Good contacts within caucuses as well. There are many other firms with ex-CMs and such who’ve hung their own shingle but historically these are the pollsters of record for the state.

    If district heavily Hispanic, Sergio Bendixen worth a look. All three firms good at measuring multilingual districts but it is Bendixen’s forte.

  13. About the two governors races diverging cited unamed Dem sources that guaranteed Obama would be there. Maybe Michelle too. Biden has confirmed dates. As I said in the other thread I’m surprised Bill hasn’t been across the river.

  14. in a clear and advantageous way.

    But I’ll tell you something else: passing healthcare before the election could be a BIG help. (I think that might not be possible now. . )

  15. was a hit piece written by a partisan Republican. Have a look at Jonathan Martin’s past history with the GOP:


    Every single “Democratic source” in that article was anonymous. Doesn’t that seem fishy?

  16. And losing by less is still losing, and would hurt him and his ability to do anything. There’s a difference between being spineless and intelligent risk-assessment.

  17. I’m really surprised. Martin has always struck me as a pretty fair guy.

    Oh well. Yet another reason not to take Politico seriously…

  18. .. you don’t throw away political capital on a LOST cause. Be it Martin or Deeds.  That is NOT how anyone plays the game.

  19. and and not make the turnout have to suck so hard for their state races.

    Off years are for local/municipal, even years are for state and federal elections.  It just makes sense.

  20. Maybe you didn’t understand my question. I was simply asking who else other than you is smarter than the president.

    Your comment had me wondering if I may be smarter than the president too. Am I smarter than the president? Yes or no?

  21. whether I’m going to get an answer to my question, so I’ll just state my feeling that when someone is trying to shape opinion it’s important to consider the source.

    Apparently my interpretation of his above comment is correct in that he believes the president is stupid. Here I’m simply calling out someone who has the audacity to call the president stupid.

    I think this is an important fact to remember in the future when he disseminates his political analysis. Would anyone seriously lend any credibility to this person who apparently believes that not only does he know more than the president, but that the president is also stupid?  

  22. does not equal Pope.  Any president is not infalliable.  All can and I am sure have made stupid decisions.  Getting elected doesn’t make you smart.  I disagree that Obama has to help in both or neither race and that skipping VA would be stupid but no need to get on your high horse.  Debate the point don’t pull out the appeal to authority: you can’t just say “He is president so he must be right”. It was a poor argument when the bushbots made it and it is poor today.  

  23. I never mentioned anything about Virginia, nor the president’s decision regarding campaigning in the gubernatorial race. Neither did I say he was right in this case.

    Again, I was simply responding to a comment made that the president is, in fact, stupid. You’re going to have a hard time convincing me of that one. Likewise, that the aforementioned commenter is smarter than President Obama is probably not going to sell to anyone either.

  24. but stop being dishonest.  Tommy didn’t say he was stupid.  He set out a hypothetical course of action (going to NJ and not VA) that he thought was stupid and then stated that it was doubtful that the President was stupid enough to follow that hypothetical course of action.

    I happen to disagree on the merits and think it may make sense to do one without the other but you are simply being a bully and now you are in typical wingnut territory by misstating the original comment in a strawman form that you can argue against.  This site is way better than that.

  25. if Obama didn’t do that, then he’s stupid. He didn’t state that not doing that would be stupid. He implied that Obama is stupid if he doesn’t agree with him. There’s also an implication there that Obama is stupid, just potentially not to the degree the commenter thinks the president is.

    I’ll end this by stating that I reject this ignorant comment and hope everyone else does too. And regardless of how you perceive it, I’m going to call someone out who’s trying to shape opinion when he or she makes such a ridiculous statement. I happen to believe that the president is quite smart, and I think most people do as well. You should also notice too that he never corrected my interpretation of his comment.


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