November 3, 2009….Election Night!

In less than 2 weeks, we will determine the winner of three important elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, NY-23).  At one time there was some chatter from the right that November 3rd would be a referendum on the Democrats.  For argument’s sake, I’ll agree with the conservatives and then try to analyze the potential results of these three races.  First, let’s look at the three races:

NJ-Gov  If there was ever a “come from ahead” loss staring at a Republican candidate in 2009, Chris Christie is the first man that comes to mind.  Christie made the mistake of touting a “reformer” image, but his strategy has backfired.  The Corzine campaign has identified flaws in this strategy by refuting it effectively.  Christie should have won this race going away, but Christie’s ethical issues have been the focal point as opposed to Corzine’s tenure as governor.  Chris Daggett’s popularity is the wild card.  At this point I think this race will go to Corzine due to the recent trends in the polls.  Daggett is a wild card, but Corzine should prevail by the skin of his teeth.  

VA-Gov  Creigh Deeds hasn’t caught on fire with the Virginia electorate.  McDonnell has the momentum, and I don’t see how Deeds will pull it off in less than 2 weeks.  I hope I’m wrong.  It has been noted that Deeds is a fast finisher, so I’m not totally writing this race off yet.

NY-23 Bill Owens might become the first Democrat to represent this district in many years.  DeDe Scozzafava is out of money and might actually finish 3rd in this race.  Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party’s dog in this race, and he’s attacking both candidates from the right.  Owens has some momentum, Hoffman has some momentum (if not even more than Owens), and DeDe is floundering.  This race leans towards Owens at this time.

If the Democrats win 2 of the 3 races, would it be considered a good night for the Democratic party?  If the Republicans only pick 1 of these races, how will they spin the results in their favor?  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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40 thoughts on “November 3, 2009….Election Night!”

  1. The other two are tossups. Of course, I’m also watching a number of referenda (about as important IMO).  

  2. Will be third parties. But I really don’t think we can take any accurate predictive reading for next year whatever happens this. That being said it should be an exciting night. I have my Pringles ready already!

  3. Anything less, however, and I think it’s hard to argue it’s not a win for the GOP.

    I suspect the 5 likeliest scenarios, with the most likely on top, are…

    1. McDonnell/Corzine/Owens

    2. McDonnell/Christie/Owens

    3. McDonnell/Corzine/Hoffman

    4. McDonnell/Christie/Hoffman

    5. Deeds/Corzine/Owens

  4. It’s a swingy district formerly held by a Democrat.  I’m liking what I’m seeing from our guy: http://www.darrellblack.com/is…

    I will work with the Democrats in congress and the governor to ensure that all Georgians can have access to affordable health care and that insurance companies will not be able to deny you for having pre-existing conditions.

    I’m committed to improving the economy and protecting the environment. Bringing green jobs to Milledgeville is an important step in not only improving the economy in the short-run, but also ensuring that our children and grandchildren have access to the natural resources that we enjoy in our region.

    (That whole thing deserves bolding.

    Someone needs to work long and hard to put together state, business, and local efforts, and history proves it is the Democratic Party that does this best.

  6. VA

    57% McDonnell

    43% Deeds

    NJ

    44% Corzine

    41% Christie

    14% Daggett

    1% Other

    NY-23

    40% Owens

    31% Hoffman

    29% Scozzafava

    Charlotte Mayor

    52% Foxx

    48% Lassiter

  7. But it looks like we’re going to have a Phillies/Yankees World Series in the context of a hot NJ election. The state gets split right down the middle, but there are more Yankees fans that Phillies fans in the state.

    (Go Phillies!)

  9. “Palin guarantees NY-23 will be race post-election analysts focus on to determine the mood of the electorate…”

    The gift that keeps giving!

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