Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/11-13, registered voters):
Vic Snyder (D-inc): 44
Tim Griffin (R): 43
Undecided: 13Vic Snyder (D-inc): 45
David Meeks (R): 42
Undecided: 13Vic Snyder (D-inc): 44
Scott Wallace (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.9%)
When the NRCC got former US Attorney and Karl Rove acolyte Tim Griffin to run against Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder, it was clear this would be Snyder’s biggest test in a while. PPP (which is starting to poll some southern House races in the next few months, with VA-09 coming next) confirms this, finding a 1-point edge for Snyder. Snyder, unlike many other southern Dems, has had some hard-fought races in his recent past (not in 2008, though — he was unopposed), so he doesn’t have much rust to shake off, but clearly this one will be hard-fought too.
However, this doesn’t seem to be about Griffin as much as the Democratic brand in Arkansas, especially among independents (Barack Obama’s approval is 41/52, despite this currently being the mostly Dem-leaning district in the state). Griffin, despite his Beltway reputation, is still little known in his district (with a 14/19 favorable), and Griffin only slightly overperforms two guys I’ve literally never heard of, who are even less known: 7/15 for David Meeks, whose website is appropriately whoisdavidmeeks.com, and 11/14 for Scott Wallace. Snyder’s approval is 42/46, but it’s at 30/56 among independents. Discontent with Snyder may be peaking right now in the wake of the health care reform vote, which is opposed by 55% of the district’s voters, including 67% of independents.
RaceTracker Wiki: AR-02
to get Blanche Lincoln’s vote.
should talk about nothing but job creation and the stimulus for the next year. Southern conservatives love to bemoan big government except when it benefits them at the local level in terms of earmarked projects which another republican consertaitve simply couldn’t get. If they can make this race about a risky loss of government revenue by ousting a sitting, powerful representative, I think the Arkansas Dems can win.
is on his way to an I told you so.
These are TERRIBLE numbers for an entrenched incumbent against candidates who no one has ever heard of.
Maybe it wont be as bad all across the South but yikes, AR is getting rocked…. Really makes me wonder what wouldve happened if Hillary was our President right now.
Take a look at the breakdown by race.
Right now people are frustrated, and telling pollsters they are voting against the incumbent is a way to vent their frustration. But on election day Snyder will win.
Teabaggery is in full throttle, 21% of people polled thing the GOP is to Liberal.
We just need Beebe to campaign for AK Dems. He has miraculously kept his approval int he 70’s, he should be able to work his magic with Snyder.
Allow me to point out that the only Republican Senator elected from Arkansas since Reconstruction was Tim Hutchinson, who was elected in 1996 even as Bill Clinton won the state with 54% of the vote.
Also, although Clinton won the state in 1992, a Republican won the 4th District for the first time ever. Mike Ross won the district back in 2000… When Gore was on the ticket (and oddly enough, Gore won the 1st and 4th but lost the 2nd).
As for Snyder’s HCR vote — it doesn’t matter if he voted for it or against it. Voters don’t really care about these votes when it comes down to it. If they did, then moderate Republicans like Lincoln Chafee and Jim Leach wouldn’t have lost in 2006. It’s antipathy towards the party in power that drives voters to get rid of them.
Clinton lead McCain in a rasmussen poll in kentucky 51 to 42 while Obama trailed 57-32 in that poll. Clinton lead McCain in a survey USA poll in north carolina 49-43. I saw a poll where Clinton and McCain were very close in Alabama.
Clinton could have come close to sweeping the south as bad as the enviornment was for the dems. Look how good bill clinton did in southern states. He won states like tennessee which obama lost by 16 percent.
Obama’s approval rating in vic snyder’s district is 41 percent that is what is dragging him down. I’d imagine Clinton’s rating in the district would be in the sixties.
Dems in the south are going to be in trouble with Obama’s low approval ratings. There was a special election in Tennessee a few months ago in a swing district in which the democrat was crushed.
Lincoln has no chance of re-election with Obama’s approval numbers so low in arkansas where as Clinton was president Lincoln would be in much better shape.
The 2010 electorate will be much less youth as 10 percent of youth showed up in virginia in 2009 which was way down from 2008.
The electorate in 2010 will also have far fewer minorities.
Clinton would have been much better positioned to face a older whiter electorate in 2010. Obama’s coalition will not be there in 2010.
I also don’t like the comparisons to 1994 because bush jr left the gop in such shambles that with the crazy tea partiers and the gop in such bad shape I don’t think dems would have lost that many seats in 2010 with Clinton.
The only reason why the gop has a chance in 2010 is the angry white voter in a small electorate. With Clinton in office she would have negated this and those same angry white voters would be much more willing to stick with the dems.
Now in the long run having Clinton run in 8 years could be beneficial because she is the stronger candidate and it is harder to win after one party has been in power for 8 years.
Obama also is in very strong position to win by a wide margin in 2012.
But for off year elections in 2010 and 2014 Obama isn’t the ideal candidate for the older whiter angry electorate. Clinton would have been much better positioned for these off year elections.
If you are a southern dem in off year elections you have an angry white electorate without obama’s coalition and that isn’t a good place to be in.
is that no one is making a case for this sort of thing. Things get tough here, Democrats get going…in the opposite direction as fast as possible. Even when Dems do the right thing, like Snyder and Berry did with the healthcare vote, they try to hide behind a line like “it’s not perfect but…” and then change the subject or vanish all together. Lovely how much that’s helping the Democratic brand ain’t it?
It’s like they are trying to encourage Kilgore to enter the race by showing him a poll that shows Boucher as vulnerable! One of the reasons Kilgore gave in September for not running:
ref http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33…
I suspect Snyder’s house seat would be “extra credit” work for Huckabee