NY-23: PPP poll out, Hoffman up 54-38……

The poll is here.  The 2-way topline is 54-38.  The 3-way was 51-34-13.

Most importantly, TAKE THE RESULTS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

PPP is a good outfit and could be right.

But they’ve had their stinkers, too, just like every pollster does.

Their sample size for this poll is HUGE.  But it was huge for their PA-Dem Presidential primary, and they were a bad outlier in wrongly calling it a dead heat.

This is a harder race to poll because it’s a special with nothing else on the ballot in much of the district except for scattered local races.  PPP makes turnout assumptions that may or may not be right in saying Republicans are energized and Democrats aren’t planning to vote.  That might turn out to be right, but a special election is a very different animal from a general or even a primary.

I ultimately take this poll as one plausible scenario.  If it was a regularly scheduled midterm, I’d take it very seriously.  But a lot more turnout for an election like this is orchestrated, and less of it organic, than a regularly scheduled general election.

I’m not accepting PPP is right, but I’m accepting they could be right.

15 thoughts on “NY-23: PPP poll out, Hoffman up 54-38……”

  1. But of course, that’s what you have to do with every poll.

    It would be amazing if this one were so wrong that they got the wrong winner.

  2. I mean yeah, it’s possible, but they are saying those that vote will have supported McCain by a 51%-43% margin with Obama clocking in at 39% approval ratings. With the DCCC having dumped as much cash as they have into this race (comparatively) I am not buying Dem turn out to be as low as they proclaim.

    Hoffman may be leading, but the last 48 hours seems to be only good news for Owens at this point that will fire up his base a bit more.

    If Scozz is at the rally with Biden tomorrow I am expecting a very different voting group to show up Tuesday than what PPP is saying.

    They COULD be right. But I’m not betting on it currently. I say this is a GOTV race that either could win (ditto for NJ).

  3. PPP polled on Saturday and Sunday.

    Chris Cilliza of “The Fix” stated in a couple posts here and here that “Democratic strategists” viewed the race as turning in Owens’ favor before Scozzafava dropped out.  He also noted that “Democratic strategists” have become pessimistic since DeDe dropped out.  But the point is PPP’s poll results almost certainly are inconsistent with Democrats’ internal polling immediately before DeDe dropped out, which I would trust more than PPP.  Owens and the party organization likely have a better handle on the likely turnout model than a public pollster, however plausible the public pollster’s likely voter screen.

  4. We will have much more on NY-23 over the next 24 hours.

    I think they’re going to run another poll.  

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