SSP Daily Digest: 11/12

NY-23: There was a brief moment of collective “Holy crap!” earlier today when people realized that the race in the 23rd wasn’t quite over. The Bill Owens lead over Doug Hoffman shrank considerably (down to 3,176 votes currently, compared to 5,335 at the end of election night) after recanvassing, including discovery of some errors in Hoffman-leaning Oswego County. There remain 5,600 absentee votes to be counted, so for the election results to actually change, Hoffman would need to win about 80% of those votes (many of which were sent in while Dede Scozzafava was still in the race). Hoffman’s camp is admitting that the results of the race aren’t about to change, but they say they might not have conceded so quickly on Election Night if they’d known it was going to be so close — meaning that the big story here is that they could have stopped Bill Owens from being sworn in and providing one of the decisive votes on health care reform in the House.

FL-Sen: Every day now seems to bring a little more bad news for Charlie Crist, and today’s bit is that members of the Florida state GOP are demanding an “emergency closed door meeting” with the state chair, Jim Greer. The meeting-demanders seem to be Marco Rubio supporters, and they’re particularly exercised about Crist’s relationship with sketchy financial backer Scott Rothstein.

IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk’s pronounced turn to the right has been unsubtle enough that even NARAL is noticing, and calling him out on it. They’re no longer considering him “pro-choice” after his Stupak amendment vote, and say they’ll be working toward his defeat next year.

ME-Sen: We weren’t the only ones to take notice of Olympia Snowe’s terrible approvals among Republicans according to PPP. The Family Research Council is now saying that if a conservative candidate shows up to run against Snowe in 2012, the FRC will back them.

NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s newest poll of North Carolina finds more of what they’ve been finding all year: people are lukewarm about Richard Burr (with an approval of 40/31) and he only narrowly leads a Generic Dem (44-40). However, Burr does better against named Democrats, including Rep. Bob Etheridge (45-35), SoS Elaine Marshall (45-34), and former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker (45-33).

NV-Sen: There’s yet another hapless-seeming Republican entering the GOP Senate field: former Nevada Board of Education member Greg Dagani. Dagani is probably best known for resigning from the Board of Education after getting caught making out with his wife during a public meeting. Wait… his wife, and not a staffer (or someone he met in Argentina and/or the men’s room)? Are we sure he’s a Republican?

UT-Sen: Here’s a little more information on the two new guys scoping out the GOP field in the wake of AG Mark Shurtleff’s departure, suggesting that they both have the potential to be formidable opponents to Bob Bennett. In fact, these two might do better at gaining the favor of the teabaggers, in that Shurtleff (who was running to the conservative Bennett’s right) was somehow considered not conservative enough in some circles (mostly owing to his immigration stance). Wealthy businessman Fred Lampropoulos was a gubernatorial candidate in 2004, almost forcing Jon Huntsman to a primary. And while lawyer Mike Lee hasn’t run for office before, he’s the son of Mormon leader and former BYU president Rex Lee, which means a lot in Utah (although Bennett’s family’s role in the Mormon church also looms large).

CO-Gov: Is Scott McInnis about to get Scozzafavaed? The law of unintended consequences seems to point that direction. After ex-Rep. McInnis’s establishment moneybags supporters thought they were being smart by hounding state Senate minority leader Josh Penry out of the GOP primary, that just seemed to tick off the anti-establishment base. And now a much higher-profile (and much less palatable in the general) candidate with a national following to draw on is emerging to take Penry’s place. Yes, it’s ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo, who’s saying that he’ll file to create an exploratory committee in the next few days.

MN-Gov: Another Republican fell by the wayside in the overstuffed Minnesota gubernatorial race. State Sen. Mike Jungbauer dropped out, citing fundraising troubles and a weak showing in a recent straw poll.

WI-Gov: People have treated Republican Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker as a strong contender in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, but he seems to have a certain tone-deafness about him: he met with Sarah Palin during her Wisconsin visit to try to secure an endorsement from her… in a state where Barack Obama won 56-42.

DE-AL: Republicans managed to lure somebody into the open seat race to replace Rep. Mike Castle, despite that this race may be the Republicans’ likeliest House loss in 2010. Fred Cullis, who owns an industrial sales company, said he’d be an “independent voice” for Delaware a la Castle.

FL-08: I don’t know if this is an indicator of the NRCC having settled on Bruce O’Donoghue as its consensus pick, or a case of Rep. Alan Grayson having yet more success with his voodoo doll, but yet another prospective Republican challenger is turning tail and running. First-term state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle made public his decision not to run.

FL-16: St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft has previously sounded some moderate notes as he takes on freshman Republican Rep. Tom Rooney in this R+5 district, but he’s not playing it safe on health care. He came out yesterday saying that he’d have voted for the House health care reform bill and against the Stupak amendment.

PA-17: Republican state Senator David Argall batted down rumors that he’d challenge long-time Rep. Tim Holden in this GOP-leaning Harrisburg-based seat, saying he was “99% sure” he wouldn’t run. Blue Dog Holden seems on track to receive his usual free pass.

Nassau Co. Exec: Republican Ed Mangano’s lead over incumbent Dem Tom Suozzi expanded to 497 in the recount of the Nassau County Executive race on Long Island. Suozzi also waxed philosophical in an interesting interview with Ben Smith, pointing to a public exhaustion with civic engagement and a return to “self-interest” on tax issues.

Mayors: Endorsements from the 3rd place finishers were handed out in the runoff elections in both the Atlanta and Houston mayoral races. In Houston, city controller Annise Parker got the endorsement of city councilor Peter Brown, who surprisingly finished behind Parker and former city attorney Gene Locke. (Locke is African-American, Parker is white and a lesbian, and Brown is a straight white guy.) And in Atlanta, city councilor Lisa Borders endorsed state Senator Kasim Reed, consolidating the African-American vote against white city councilor Mary Norwood, who finished first.

Vote By Mail: Washingtonians are getting pretty tired of watching their elections drag on (the Seattle mayoral race this time). There’s a renewed move afoot in Washington to change election laws to match the mail-in ballot law in better-organized Oregon, where ballots must be received by Election Day instead of postmarked by Election Day. The movement is getting a boost with Gov. Chris Gregoire’s support.

42 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 11/12”

  1. My on the ground perspective here in Colorado is that Tancredo will be tough to beat in a primary and will find it damn near impossible to break 45% in a general election. Even if Tancredo loses in the primary, he’ll still probably bloody up McInnis. I think Ritter just got that much safer.

  2. Great. Just effing great. More convolution and uncertainty, courtesy of the 19th century election apparatus in upstate New York.

    Waiting on Nate Silver to give us the mathematical odds of a Hoffman upset before I can sleep soundly…

  3. But why is Kirk the only one in their sights? Can we expect to hear from them on Mary Bono Mack? How about Mike Castle?

  4. I havent really seen much on why people think Suozzi did so poorly and how Thompson seemed to make it so close.

    Pure anti-incumbent feelings or wha?



    – Dodd with a 38% floor reeks of Corzine’s numbers.

    – Simmons posts a marvelous 40-10 favorable rating, with 25/16 among Dems.

    – Volatile GOP Primary, w/ Simmons up 28-17 against McMahon.

    – Dodd does 7 points better against McMahon, who doesn’t shore up the GOP base as well as Simmons.

    – Lieberman’s #’s seem to be improving (49/44 approval), and only 33% of voters say his stance on health care will make them less likely to vote for him in ’12.



    – Fisher and Brunner in a tight race for the Dem nodd (24/22).

    – Ganley’s only making a slight dent in the GOP Primary w/ 7%.

    – Against Fisher, Portman shores up the GOP base (76%), and has a double-digit lead among Indies.

    – 70% of Ohioans aren’t familiar enough with Portman to offer a favorable/unfavorable.

    – Obama sinks to a 45% approval rating, and in regard to his handling of health care reform, he’s at 36%.

    – Ohioans split 40/40 on who they trust more on health care – Obama or Congressional Republicans.

  7. 7,178 absentee ballots returned out of 11,140 sent out with the final deadline Monday. Owens’ lead basically comes from blowing Hoffman away in Clinton and St. Lawrence counties and there are more than enough ballots uncounted from there to offset any gain from Oswego and Jefferson. I’d say Owens’ by a least 2,000 votes in the end.


  8. How crazy would it be if Hoffman runs? I seriously doubt it, but I learned not to doubt anything in that race.  

  9. Sparks seems to be hitting Davis pretty hard from the left, particularly over the HRC vote. Not sure if this is just posturing for the primary electorate, or if Sparks actually intends to run as a full-on ‘Obama Democrat’ if he wins the primary. Probably a little of both.  

  10. About half of the absentees have been counted, and the Owens lead has held completely steady.  Hoffman would have to win the rest by 60%.  Not gonna happen.

  11. pretty much…but it also had to do with the fact that both elections were thought to be foregone conclusions, so the base of the favored candidate didn’t bother to show up.  

  12. Lieberman’s numbers improve after he comes out against health care? I’m going to call this an outlier.  

  13. Those numbers don’t look much different from the last poll they took. Dodd can’t break 40% and Lieberman’s approvals are so-so. 49-44 isn’t anything special. They both need to retire.

  14. Brunner and Fisher are on track to blow this. She can’t raise money and he can’t pull away in the primary. Bad deal all round with Portman able to paint himself favorably with his huge CoH advantage. At this rate Ohioans not already in the know will never get to hear about his Bush connections.

  15. needs to take one for the team and drop out. She can wait for the governor’s seat to open up in 4 years. With Portman’s ever growing warchest, the last thing we need is a VERY decisive primary.

  16. Lieberman approval…

    Republicans – 72/20

    Democrats – 31/62

    Independents – 52/40

    By contrast, his numbers in July were…

    Republicans – 62/29

    Democrats – 33/62

    Independents – 49/42

    The spike in his overall approval stems from an increase in GOP support. It looks like he’s still holding onto the conservaDems who votes for him in ’06.

  17. Would you say that Joe Lieberman has strong leadership qualities or not? 60 yes, 36 no

    Would you say that Joe Lieberman is honest and trustworthy or not? 60 yes, 34 no

    Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans? 56 yes, 37 no

    As you may know, Senator Lieberman opposes giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans. Does this make you more likely to vote for Senator Lieberman, less likely, or doesn’t it make a difference? 22 more likely, 33 less likely, 41 no difference.

    If Senator Lieberman joins Republicans in a filibuster to prevent a vote on the Democrat’s health care reform plan, do you think Senate Democrats should punish Lieberman by taking away his chairmanship of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee or not? 29 yes, 64 no

    So, in conclusion; Connecticut supports a public option, but it’s totally cool if Joe Lieberman kills it because he’s honest, trustworthy a strong leader for opposing what we want, and for God’s sake don’t punish him for opposing what we want!

    How do you govern when the voters are idiots?

  18. You do what Joe Lieberman does and take a stand against the voters’ choice.

    You push the public option using reconciliation and strip Joe Lieberman of his committee chairmanship and kick him out of the party in 2011.

  19. and tell Lieberman and the rest of the Dem caucus that you vote for cloture or you can join the minority.  End of story.  We have 50 votes on the bill.  So the six or eight moderates that are undecided can vote against it and I won’t care one bit, but the whole caucus should vote for cloture or they shouldn’t lose chairmanships, they should be kicked entirely out of the caucus.

  20. Which puts him in an ever bigger whole financially against Portman. She really has no chance of winning the seat unless she brings in close to a million in the last quarter. Fisher isn’t perfect by a long shot but at least he can compete. Brunner would be a sitting duck.

  21. I don’t think Sparks is trying to make himself an “Obama Democrat” as much as he is trying to keep his popularity with grassroots Democrats strong.  There’s a lot of folks in Alabama, including the powerful teacher’s union, that are none too happy with Davis (they even tried to recruit another black Democrat to run in the primary in order to sink Davis’ candidacy).  His vote against the HCR bill will only add fuel to the fire.

  22. I think he should have already lost his chairmanship, but certainly needs to be stripped of it if he follows through on his filibuster threat.

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