SSP Daily Digest: 11/18

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has picked up a major critic in her Senate run: one of her former employees, in the form of 66-year-old former pro wrestler Superstar Billy Graham. Graham is a physical wreck from his days in the WWF, thanks to steroid abuse and a number of hip replacements, with no pension or health care from WWE. He plans to keep dogging the McMahon campaign as McMahon keeps trying to sanitize her previous career.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is dropping the smiley above-the-fray approach; he’s promising to step up direct engagements with Marco Rubio, now that it looks like we’ve got a real race on our hands. Crist will go after Rubio for failure to move important pieces of conservative legislation during his time as state House speaker.

KS-Sen, KS-04: This seems to exist mostly as whispers and rumors, but there’s word that Rep. Todd Tiahrt, not getting much traction in polls or fundraising or endorsements, may drop out of the GOP Senate primary against Rep. Jerry Moran. (Tiahrt’s people pushed back against the idea, saying they’re relying on movement grassroots forces that things like “polls” don’t pick up on. They actually also tried redbaiting Moran over his sponsorship of legislation to allow American travel to Cuba, indicating they won’t go quietly.) The question of Tiahrt running for House instead also presents a conundrum for state Rep. Raj Goyle in KS-04, who’s turning into one of the Dems’ best 2010 challengers — would Goyle be better off running in an open seat, or against the 16-year vet Tiahrt in what’s shaping up to be an anti-incumbent year?

KY-Sen: There had been some talk about Cathy Bailey (a wealthy Bush Pioneer and W’s ambassador to Latvia), back when the GOP was still casting about for an alternative to Jim Bunning. All of a sudden, she’s back, saying she’s considering the race and sounding none too pleased with Trey Grayson (too “moderate” for her tastes) and Rand Paul (too “extreme”). I can’t see her winning the primary, but with her money, she could conceivably peel away enough mainstream GOP votes from Grayson to flip the primary to Paul.

MT-Sen: It looks like Max Baucus may have suffered some residual damage from his high-profile role in health care reform; he’s down to 44% approval, from 67% approval at this point two years ago, according to an MSU-Billings poll. He’s lagging all other statewide officials, including Jon Tester (56/25) and Brian Schweitzer (62/20). The problem seems to be that Baucus gets only 67% approval among Dems, compared with 81% for Tester and 82% for Schweitzer; a plurality of Montanans, including 73% of Dems, support a public option, so Baucus’s decline among Dems doesn’t seem hard to diagnose.

NC-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker said he won’t be running for Senate, although he’d strongly considered it. With Rep. Bob Etheridge’s recent “no” also, it’s looking more and more like SoS Elaine Marshall will have a lightly contested path to the Dem nomination (her main opponent is attorney Kenneth Lewis).

NH-Sen: One other important “no” in a Senate race: RNC member and one-time House candidate Sean Mahoney, who had been making lots of candidate-like noises, said he won’t run in the GOP field. If you look a few moves ahead in the chess game, that’s good news for us, as having Mahoney out of the race means fewer votes split on the field’s right flank, giving right-winger Ovide Lamontagne a stronger shot at taking out establishment fave Kelly Ayotte, which would give Dems a much weaker opponent in the general.

WI-Sen: Former Gov. (and brief presidential candidate) Tommy Thompson isn’t ruling out a Senate bid, although it seems unlikely; he’ll make a decision “next year.” Thompson’s rather strange statement is that he’s “looking at governor, looking at senator, and looking at mayor of Elroy. One of the three.” Seeing as how this is similar to the NY-Sen-B or ND-Sen races (an unlikely challenge to materialize, but one that would be a hot race if it did), SSP is moving the Wisconsin race back on to the big board, as a Race to Watch.

WV-Sen: Congratulations to Robert Byrd, who hit an astonishing milestone today: the longest-serving Congressperson of all time. Byrd (a Representative from 1952-1958 and a Senator since 1958) has been in Congress for more than 25% of Congress’s existence.

KS-Gov: Kansas Dems have finally nailed down a solid candidate to take on retiring Sen. Sam Brownback in the gubernatorial race. Retired pharmaceutical company executive Tom Wiggans will carry the flag for the Democrats in this uphill fight. (H/t Mike Nellis.)

NY-19: I was tempted to put this story on the FP just so I could run the headline “Ball busted!” Roll Call is sounding pretty pissed off at having gotten initially snookered by Greg Ball and his sketchy poll from yesterday. His internal poll only sampled two-thirds of the district (Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess Counties), oversampling Republican Putnam County and leaving out Orange and Rockland Counties altogether, counties where Hall won last year. Ball’s backers say they’ll do a more traditional poll soon and are still pleased with their findings.

PA-10: Good news for the GOP: they’ve found an elected official who’s interested in going up against Blue Dog Dem Chris Carney in the sprawling, red-leaning 10th, where they’ve been struggling with recruitment. The bad news is: Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk is 27 (and is hard-pressed to look 17 — check out the photo at the link), and Snyder County, deep in the hills, has a population of 38K and is at the wrong end of the district from the population centers.

WI-08: A line is forming among GOP challengers to Rep. Steve Kagen, and now there’s a former state legislator among them. Ex-state Rep. Terry McCormick served three terms and then lost the 2006 primary in WI-08 against then-state Rep. John Gard when it was an open seat, and now she’s back for another try. There are a couple county supervisors in the race, but the NRCC seems to like Reid Ribble, a businessman who can bring his own money to the race.

CA-St. Ass.: Republican Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby finished first in the special election (to replace “Hot Mike” Duvall) in AD-72 last night. His 37% wasn’t enough to avoid a second round. He’ll face Democrat John MacMurray (who finished second at 27%) and a Green Party candidate; two other Republicans, Linda Ackerman and Richard Faher, pulled in 20% and 13% respectively, so if Norby consolidates the GOP votes in this red-leaning seat (which falls within CA-40 in the US House) he’s on track to holding the seat.

NRCC: Pete Sessions, emulating the Dems’ spread-the-field strategy of recent cycles, says he wants to have 435 districts that Republicans are playing in. He may have missed an important piece of information: the Illinois filing deadline is past, and the Republicans are already guaranteed not to be playing in IL-01 and IL-04. Well, 433 is close.

Mayors: There are dueling internal polls of the upcoming Houston mayoral runoff, one of the two big mayoral races left on the table (Atlanta being the other one). City controller Annise Parker leads former city attorney Gene Locke, 47-34 in her own poll, while in Locke’s poll, Parker has a narrower 43-39 lead.

Demographics: NDN, a liberal think tank that spends a lot of time on Latino issues, has done some projecting of 2010 re-apportionment, and likes what it sees. They see Texas gaining four seats, and possibly three of those could be drawn as Hispanic-influence seats in Dallas, Houston, and the Rio Grande Valley. They also see Florida gaining a seat, and recommend creation of a Hispanic-influence seat in central Florida (where much of the state’s growth, both overall and among Hispanics, has been).

Parties: CNN has a poll that points to the current disparity between the parties: Democrats are a lot more tolerant of the big tent. 58% of Dems prefer to see nomination of candidates who can beat the Republicans, even if they don’t agree on all the issues, while 51% of Republicans prefer to see candidates who agree with them even if they have a poor chance of beating the Democrat.

Votes: Donkeylicious has an interesting project reminiscent of SSP’s own PVI/Vote Index, looking at Dems and seeing how they match up with their districts’ leans. A lot of the same names show up among bad Dems as we found, but they do some interesting breaking things down by region and by freshman or sophomore status.

100 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 11/18”

  1. I wonder how many (especially older folks) will read that and think the McMahon’s abused Reverand Billy Graham.  Especially bad pub considering the name.  

  2. The wrestlers who would support Linda McMahon are the guys who actually made a ton of money when business was awesome.  

    Part of the reason why Jesse Ventura left McMahon’s wrestling company on a bad note is because Jesse tried to start a union and he was blocked.  I kind of wish Ventura would consider taking a swing at McMahon, but he might need a paycheck again some day and want to get back into the business.  

  3. Bad news for Linda, SBG did shackle himself in the desert to cleanse himself of evil. I’d post the YouTube, if the first half didn’t have a villain wrestler slapping a woman in the face, before SBG came to the rescue and got beat up. Stay classy Pro Wrestling.

    At least Graham is used to making his point in under 60 seconds, so he better prepare for commercial work.

  4. really creating 3/4 Hispanic majority districts?

    There is still a fair likelihood of them maintaing control of redistricting (I’ve heard that its both gov/leg and also a commission?).  It’s kind of a given that they’ll make another Dem seat in Dallas or they’ll be dummymandered and we’ll end up with 2-3 of them.  

    But population growth wise, are they pretty much forced to make another Rio seat and another Houston seat?

    AZ, where are the two seats most likely going to be put?  Both in the Phoenix metro?

  5. Burr has a 40% approval ratings and is running in a year with higher Dem registration in addition to the fact that Elaine Marshall has won 4 statewide elections by wide margins. Basically, Elaine Marshall’s goal should be GOTV. Remember Anthony Foxx was either behind or tied with John Lassiter (for Charlotte mayor) but his good GOTV effort help him win the race 52% to 48%. The same thing happened in the Chapel Hill mayoral election. In addition, this seat has switched parties in every election since 1968.

  6. The state party can appoint candidates in districts where nobody filed, but given how Democratic the unopposed districts are, it doesn’t seem like there’s much incentive to.

  7. That last link is fascinating … I’m with the majority of Democrats who would rather have a winning candidate than one who matches my views exactly, but that Donkeylicious “Votes” link has some stuff that’s quite illuminating on district PVI vs. its representative’s voting record. For example….

    Among ’08 freshmen, the Democrat who is furthest to the left of his district is … wait for it … Bobby Bright. That’s right, the second most conservative Democrat (behind Walt Minnick, who’s basically useless) is also the freshman who is farthest to the left of his district, simply because his district is so conservative.


    So think about that fun fact. Of course, as Donkeylicious notes, Chet Edwards reps a more conservative district with a significantly less conservative voting record, but he’s an entrenched incumbent.

    More fun from Donkeylicious:

    After Bright comes Frank Kratovil, who’s more or less in the same boat; then Eric Massa, Betsy Markey, Alan Grayson (shocker!), and Harry Teague. The worst of the bunch are Jim Himes, Dan Dreihaus, Dina Titus, Dan Maffei, and Gary Peters.

    A lot of “the worst” skate by the hard left’s wrath. Granted, this rating method isn’t necessarily airtight, but it’s not useless either, and it’s important to think about when debating whether or not Blue Dogs are good for the Democrats.


    Brown – 41%, Whitman – 41%

    Brown – 43%, Poizner – 32%

    Brown – 42%, Campbell – 33%

    Hard to say why Whitman performs 10% better than her fellow GOP competition, but she’s running very high favorables. Perhaps $$$ + being gaffe-free was all it took to get a surge?

  9. (TL;DR on rest of comments before this one)

    Good morning, Max, your state turns out to be far more progressive than you thought it to be.  Better get on tacking left fast, at least on healthcare reform.

  10. Are only guys around after the 1980’s.  Prior to that only Hogan and Andre the Giant made any real cash.  But even the wrestlers who did make a lot of money from the WWE hate the McMahon’s.  I read somewhere that more than half of WWE wrestlers are broke within 5 years of leaving the comapny, often due to serious injuries that go untreated due to no health insurance or pension.

  11. Graham is furious about having no pension and no continuing health care from his wrestling career, an anger that fuels his campaign against McMahon’s candidacy.

    The business that she was the figurehead CEO of was prosperous enough to make millions, and they did not provide health insurance.

    We can only hope that her vision of health care in the US is better than the WWF vision of health care to it’s employees and ex-employees.

  12. was about as famous in secular circles as the other one.

    You ‘uns won’t remember him but he was the inspitation for Hulk Hogan, and most every wrestler since.

    In terms of an older wrestler questioning Mcmahon’s business, he’s about the best possible choice.


    A charismatic but often difficult personality, Graham produced shows attracting elements of America’s now legendary counterculture of the time such as Jefferson Airplane, Janis Joplin, Country Joe and The Fish, Lawrence Ferlinghetti, The Committee, The Fugs, Allen Ginsberg, and, a particular favorite of Graham’s, The Grateful Dead.

  14. what happened in Chapel Hill was pathetic.  You had a hard core conservative Republican who came within 100 votes of actually winning.  

  15. is to craft a message that is appealing to the state’s metro voters.  She needs to run up the score in the Triangle, Charlotte metro, and Greenboro/Winston Salem.  

    If she runs a campaign that caters to the rural white voters, she will lose.

  16. Her strategist will probably try and follow what the Kay Hagan campaign did very closely. The key to an Elaine Marshall victory will be to win by very large margins in the following counties; Mecklenburg, Wake, Guilford, Forsyth, and Durham.

  17. that runs a campaign thinking they are going to win on the strength of rural white voters, unless the state is Massachusetts or Vermont, is out of their mind.  The Deeds-McDonnell race should show our guys/girls that the road to victory is through running up the margins in the cities and winning the suburbs, and if necessary, try to limit the damage in the rural areas.  Making the rural areas priority #1 is a recipe for disaster.  

  18. as said areas are more environmentally conscious than the conventional wisdom suggests. From personal observation, offshore oil drilling is a big no no among such voters.

    However, I can see Marshall omitting appeals to rural whites west of the Triangle.

  19. She underperformed Obama and Hagan in the urban areas, for example Bev won Wake County 51-45%, while Obama won it 57-42%. But she made up for it by way outperforming them in rural Eastern North Carolina, even in predominantly white areas. She only lost five counties to McCroroy in all of Eastern North Carolina, which is probably a big reason why she is governor right now.

  20. Sen. Claire McCaskill who won by limiting Talent’s advantage in rural Missouri. Deeds lost independents 2-1. You cannot make that advantage up with the base Democrats in most states. Deeds didn’t run a good campaign for many reasons but I doubt anyone with outside of Mark Warner could have won that race.  

  21. So she did really well in Eastern NC and the Triangle, and decently in Western NC. She also did well in Mecklenburg County, although the surrounding counties are tough for a Democrat to crack typically. Burr’s stomping grounds are in the Foothills area in the northwestern part of the state, which was also her worst region last year. So the five big counties (Meck, Durham, Wake, Guiford, and Forsyth) as well as Eastern NC will really determine this race.

  22. and turning out the Dem base in droves, Pat McCrory would be Governor today.  Purdue won nothing beyond the Democratic base in the metro areas.

    Bev Purdue’s strategy is NOT the correct strategy to win NC for a Dem.  If she tries that again in 2012, she will lose, even if Obama wins the state.  

    No Democrat should try that strategy again.

  23. Marshall faced some non-name Repub in 2008, and as bad as Burr may be, an incumbent Repub senator is a much tougher opponent than that.

  24. Durham

    78% Marshall

    32% Sawyer


    59% Marshall

    41% Sawyer


    62% Marshall

    38% Sawyer


    63% Marshall

    37% Sawyer


    61% Marshall

    39% Sawyer

    Overall state of North Carolina

    57% Marshall

    43% Sawyer

    In order to win, Marshall needs to heavily focus on GOTV in these five counties.

  25. on the issues in this ad.  The only reason I voted for Purdue was redistricting, but I’ve been told that the Governor cannot veto a redistricting bill.

  26. and Missouri’s rural areas, while conservative, are not as conservative as the white rural South.  

    The areas in MO-6 and MO-9 are closer to the Great Plains states.  The areas in MO-7 and MO-8 are closer to the white rural South.

  27. but what it indicates is that her weakest area is Burr’s strongest area…in order for a Democrat to beat him, they either have to do well in Burr’s home base, or limit Burr’s strength there…Marshall can do the latter.  

  28. Who was everyone’s first choice for Senate and who won by +60% statewide still did poorly in the Foothills, while doing amazingly everywhere else. It is the most Republican region of the state and has been for a very long time. The secret to winning statewide is determined by two factors: winning the urban areas and winning Eastern NC. No Democrat can win statewide without doing these two things to some degree. Here is Roy Cooper’s 2008 performance, which let’s assume is the highest possible threshold for a Democrat in modern-day NC under the best circumstances.

    Here is the 2008 Attorney General race map:


  29. Repubs have already maxed out their seats.  There is very little dmage they can do.  

    In Texas they have a few current congressmen to protect.  Pete Sessions seat is probably at the top of their list.  If they don’t make that one more republican in 2012 the trends are likely to cause Dems to win it in the next decade.  There are several other seats as well that are trending blue very fast thanks to Hispanic growth.  I do think that unless they concede 2 of the new seats to Dems their 2012 map could wind up a dummymander.

  30. Himes, Dreihaus, Titus and Maffei are all solid progressives on nearly everything.  I’m not bashing the Blue Dogs either, we need them.  But if I had the option of having people like Bright, Griffith and Minnick or Titus, Himes and Dreihaus survive in 2010 I would take the latter for several reasons.  The biggest reason being we would always have to spend a boatload of cash to re-elect the first bunch, while the second bunch are likely to get improved districts in 2012.  

    Chet Edwards is just a great politician.  The guy isn’t even very conservative, yet he manages to survive every time no matter how badly republicans go after him.

  31. Being to the left of his district still means he’s against SCHIP, Lilly Ledbetter, the stimulus, health care reform, climate change legislation, hate crimes against gays legislation, and so on.  Not worth it.

  32. his district should be redrawn into Mobile and made majority black as an incumbent protection plan.  And the Obama Justice Dept should insist on it.

    That is really the only reason why I want Bright to be reelected.

  33. Not only did he vote for the Stupak amendment and have an unimpressive Progressive Punch score of 89.03, but his scores on crucial votes are catastrophic. He only votes the progressive position 47% of the time.

    Titus and Himes aren’t much better, and considering they’re unlikely to be seriously challenged for re-election, there is a lot of room for improvement. That’s not to say they need to be removed, but I wouldn’t give them a free pass.

  34. That’s good to know.  I didn’t think there was anyway to significantly make that district more democratic.  But if it’s black majority wouldn’t that effectively destroy any chance Bright would have at surviving a primary?  I mean it’s not like he’s done himself any favors with the black community on a single vote to date.

    But in all honesty I’d rather Bright survive in 2010 than Griffith in Alabama if I had to choose one.  

  35. Oh, JSmith. Trying to get Bobby Bright primaried again, are we?  :)


    Give Bright the white voters from his base in Montgomery and then give him most of the white-ish eastern counties in the current AL-3 or and some of his current heavily-white Wiregrass region while creating two black districts out of Mobile-Montgomery (w/a Black-Belt connector) and a black Birmingham-Black Belt combo.

  36. here on SSP that have done just that.  

    Yes it would make Bright’s chances of winning a primary hard.  But he is an incumbent, and he can move left and it is certainly possible for him to win a primary.

  37. Bright could win a district with such a small black population like you proposed, his conservative voting record can only take him so far among white voters.

  38. interesting though that Bright is the most liberal for this district Democrat. Says a lot about Southeast Alabama.  

  39. Taylor’s defeat had more to do with the divisive primary than anything else. Cox would have suffered the same fate if she had been the nominee.

  40. Bobby Bright never struck me as a guy who votes conservative just to get re-elected in a very red district.  He seems to be a genuine old-school southern Dem.  I would not expect him to move left much at all even in a more favorable district.

  41. If the district did become majority black there is no way Bright could win a democratic primary.  Is the district were say, 50% black that would have to make the democratic primary composition well over 60% black.  

  42. Bright can still have an okay district if there’s a Jo Bonner district to absorb the whitest parts of the Panhandle-adjacent counties and the white parts of Mobile. Give Bright his over-performing-est regions … the Montgomery area (and media market) plus his hometown of Midland City, plus Dothan, (where he’ll overperform this time if you ask the mayor of Dothan) plus at least some black-ish parts to connect them. Then remove parts where he didn’t win (Coffee, Covington, Geneva, most of Dale) that are heavily white…

    I was going to do a diary about this soon, but if you want a visual representation, check it on Flickr…

    North part of Bright’s new district (in green)

    South part of Bright’s new district (again, green)

    Just fyi, these were my try-to-respect-county-lines maps. You can swap in white and black areas along the borders of the districts in southern Alabama to boost the racial percentages in one direction or another. In some maps, as here, Bright district’s is actually almost exactly the same percentage black as it was before, according to Dave’s App, and in this one, I actually think it was up one point (23% or so if I remember correctly). The grey district is 55% black, the purple one I think I got up to 53% or so. It’s tough–it would definitely half to be a VRA-imposed gerrymander to get to something like this, IMHO….but 2 black districts in AL can be done without destroying Bright or Griffith.

  43. Had a Georgia Governor’s race happened in 2008 a Dem may well have won it with that huge black turnout for Obama.  In a midterm it’s far harder for any Dem statewide.

  44. Rogers underperformed McCain significantly and WAY underperformed Jeff Sessions in 2008, and did so fairly significantly in some places with heavily-white populations (a full 10 points in a lot of counties), and by a good four or five points even in his home county of Calhoun. That said…the maps I posted below draw Rogers’ house into Bachus’ district because why not, right?  

  45. does Bright beat Rogers in your green district.  He might beat a second tier Repub, but he won’t beat a GOP incumbent.

  46. I think this could be a 4-3 Democratic map with 2 black liberal representatives possibly and no more Mike Rogers. I tried to do this several times but couldn’t get it down. Great job and pretty realistic considering the power of the Democratically controlled legislature in AL.  

  47. Remember, Rogers only won 53-47 with a second-tier opponent (sorry, Joshua Segall, but despite the money…). In a clash with a fellow incumbent as popular as Bright would have to be to make it past 2010, Bright could overperform Segall’s vote by at least 5 points (Segall overperformed Obama by ~7, as did Bright by more than twice that). Do that, and it’s tough, but not impossible to win.

    Basically, I agree with ChadInFL, Bright’s conservative because he just is, so to maximize his electoral effects, put him in the toughest district he could possibly win. That’s the idea anyway, if not exactly what I’ve accomplished with my still-being-tweaked maps.

  48. And if he was I would be very scared considering he represented the area as mayor I want to win the most as a “New South” Democrat. I’m glad we stopped him however ineffectual Perdue might be.

  49. Particularly the cities and towns along the Massachusetts border, which are mostly populated by Massholes who moved North to escape “Taxachusetts” only to keep their 128 corridor jobs and therefore ended up paying both MA income taxes and NH property taxes and are perpetually bitter about this. The rural towns and small cities in the North and West, and the Seacoast area centered around Portsmouth make up the Democratic base.


  50. The map I linked to inverts the usual color scheme and uses red for Democrats and blue for Republicans.  This is because Dave Leip has been making electoral maps since well before 2000 when the Red State / Blue State thing became cliché and didn’t feel like recoloring all of his collection.

    I should also mention that I myself reside in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts therefore my use of the term “Masshole” is endearing, not pejorative.

  51. I live in Durham, but I didn’t follow the Chapel Hill mayoral race at all. It seems absurd that Chapel Hill could have had a hardcore Republican – or any Republican at all, frankly – elected Mayor.

    Could you say a little more about this?

  52. I imagine in Alabama even two solidly AA districts would elect reps who are somewhere in between liberal and Blue Dog.  We might get lucky and get one liberal AA rep, but even that is a stretch for Alabama.

  53. I’d add 4 points for the Dem and minus 4 from the Rep to get the truthful number: Brown – 45% Whitman – 38%.

    FYI Rasmussen has Obama’s national approval at 46% today.  How stupid does Rasmussen think people are?

  54. In September and then the Field Poll came out and had Newson beating all three comfortably. I’ll wait for the Field Poll.

  55. I don’t think people understand how upset NYers are at the mess up in Albany which I am sad to say is entirely run by Democrats now.

    That anger came out at Souzzi and Spano and IMHO Tedisco lost and Scozafava campaign fell apart beecause they were seen as pols from Albany.

    Right now Albany is toxic politically and there is no bigger sledgehammer to take to it than Rudy.

    I think he knows this and that is why I think he will run.

    If Dems want to hold NY-Gov you better hope Rudy takes a pass.

  56. I have no doubt that any dip in Obama’s numbers are over that…a lot of Democrats here in Brooklyn furious over it (but also a lot who don’t care). I’d imagine Ras wants to push that meme as far as it can.  

  57. the new mayor is openly gay and stressed that often.  But more than that Kleinschmidt campaigned hard on leftish items, social justice, gap between rich and poor, environmentalism, while the conservative primarily campaigned on budgetary matters and other stuff that made him look like a centrist. He also campaigned on “change”, the status quo in Chapel Hill being strong liberalism.  The conservative also got the endorsement of the UNC newspaper.

    I got a good sense that this was going to be close when two friends of mine, both pretty liberal, told me that they were going to vote for Czajkowski.

  58. Cuomo has kept himself out of the Albany mess well enough to be able to run as a reformer.

    It won’t matter since Albany can never be reformed anyway. Odd that Suozzi got beat, considering he’s the biggest critic of Albany out there.  

  59. the senate in NY next year, what they should do is blow up the redistricting process. Republicans can’t win on a map not drawn by them.

  60. Rasmussen has put his approval under 50% almost every day for a few months now.  Not even Faux News has him as low as Rasmussen.  

  61. That’s great news.  He’s the only person with any chance of beating Cuomo.  Hope he passes on Gillibrand too.

  62. Word is that Rudy claims news of his not running is news to him.

    Lots of intrigue in NY politics maybe the Times story might not be true/

  63. His Gallup numbers tanked on Sunday, which was the first day all of it’s samples came after the announcement of KSM trials.

    Then there are the angry retorts at the local Democratic club meeting here in Brooklyn last night about how Hillary Clinton would’ve favored military trials and not “insult 9/11 famllies” or how Obama cares more about terrorist rights than victim’s rights or whatever.

  64. Would have been better just having a kangaroo court military tribunal take care of him and the rest at Gitmo.  

  65. The good news is that, so far as I can tell, Dems don’t hold more than a couple of seats in genuinely hostile territory. The Republican majority relied on a bunch of old guys in the city, and they’re mostly gone now.

    Here’s a question: if there’s a tie, can the Dems run the senate with the LG’s tie-breaking vote? Whom might we expect Cuomo to choose?  

  66. a tie is a possibility. My guess is Cuomo chooses someone from upstate;

    Outgoing Syracuse Mayor Matthew Driscoll’s name has come up very often. Ithaca Mayor Carolyn Peterson. Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown or State Senator Antoine Thompson (who’s also from Buffalo) might be a pick to placate any African-Americans upset over Paterson’s loss…though I suspect that won’t be an issue.

    He may go the LI route to stunt any advantage Lazio has there. Tom Suozzi is also a possibility now that he appears to be out of a job.

  67. If Padavan survived the Obama tide against a popular City Councilman he most likely will have an easier time in 2010.

    At 1st I thought the picking up a Senate seat in Queens was a reference to replacing Senator Hiram (whoops I tripped) Monserrate with a Democrat who doesn’t like to beat woman.

    Be more scared of newly re-elected Republican Councilman Ulrich going after Sen Addabbado (who after 2 years of Albany shenanigans is probably longing for his old City Council seat back) ala the Gentile/O’Connor seat swap.

    Also after what we saw in LI & Westchester I think the Dems need to shore up their vulnerable seats more than go on the attack.

    Then after the cenus instead of trying to destroy Senate Republicans in redistricting cut a deal with them to keep Senate close & evenly divided by protecting all incumbents while drawing the Congressional & Assembly seats for the Dems.

    That to me is the smart play. Dems could stay in control and would just increase lead over time. But the Dems running the Senate in Albany aren’t the brightest bulbs in the chandelier. If they were Pedro Espanda wouldn’t be the Democrats majority “leader”!

  68. Five years till he’s up again.  And by then hopefully he will retire and Schweitzer take the Senate seat.  He’s one guy very lucky his term doesn’t expire in2010.

  69. the Gennaro/Padavan race until late in the game. They could have a chance in an anti-incumbent year.

    Ulrich would get creamed by Addabbo. Ulrich lives in the district, but his political base is in the Rockaways which is outside the district. He lost the section of his council district that coincides with Addabbo’s Senate district.

  70. Clone one of him for every AA district in the south – except Steve Cohen’s district.  He’s the perfect AA legislator (and human being).

  71. Gennaro got the big Mo from College students who turned out in record numbers to vote for Obama. (Which is why GOP tried so hard to disqualify them from voting)

    They most liekly won’t be back to vote in 2010.

    As for Ulrich he’s got nothing to lose by running. Puts is name out and gets a chance to move to the Senate where he could have some real power.

    My point is why would Addabbo want to win re-election. He only ran for State Senate because he thought he was term limited out in 2009. The Council seat pays more, has more power, no Albany hassel (who you want to take marching orders from Pedro Espanda?)

    If Ulrich doesn’t make a go look for ex-Councilman Anthony Como to run (and get helped out with name confusion with Cuomo on the top of the ticket?)

    The question is at age 78 would Serf Maltese want to make a comeback? If he won he could hold the seat warm for the GOP until Ulrich tries to take his place in 2012 after redistricting is settled. That to me is a more dangerous situation for the Dems.

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