SSP Daily Digest: 12/1

MA-Sen: Rep. Michael Capuano picked up several more endorsements in the special election primary to succeed Ted Kennedy, although the clock is ticking loudly on trying to make up that last bit of ground against AG Martha Coakley. He got the endorsement of the Boston Herald (Boston’s smaller daily) and also fellow Rep. Ed Markey, who had seemed a likely candidate initially.

NJ-Sen: With a Republican moving into Drumthwacket (sorry, I just like saying “Drumthwacket”) for four years and Sen. Frank Lautenberg not getting any younger (at 85), Democratic Assembly whip John McKeon has introduced legislation that would change the way that Senate vacancies are filled in New Jersey. Under current law, a governor can opt either to make a temporary appointment or call a special election. The proposed law, however, would require the governor to appoint a replacement within 30 days and it would need to be someone from the same political party as the departed officeholder. The temporary appointment would continue until the next general election.

IA-Gov: His entry to the race provoked a lot of interest back when the rest of the field was just assorted wingnuts, but with the entry of ex-Gov. Terry Branstad, there wasn’t much room for young businsessman Christian Fong. He suspended his campaign today.

MI-Gov: Lansing mayor Virg Bernero has been on some people’s wish list for a gubernatorial candidate, in light of the rather underwhelming Democratic field in Michigan. It sounds like Bernero has been hearing those calls (and noticing the polls showing Lt. Gov. John Cherry not only badly losing the general but not even summoning up much interest in the Dem primary), as now he says that he’s switching from “very unlikely” to “seriously considering” a race in the last few weeks.

OR-Gov: This is the kind of thing that can put a big crimp in your newly-launched gubernatorial campaign. Initiative kingpin (and 1998 gubernatorial loser) Bill Sizemore just got charged with tax evasion for failure to file state tax returns for the previous three years. Although the state has known about this failure for more than a year, the timing may have more to do with the recent expiration of Sizemore’s amnesty period to file rather than his announcement last week of his intention to run for governor again.

PA-Gov: Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato isn’t well-known outside the Pittsburgh area, so he’s been focusing his early efforts on the Philadelphia area. He’s gotten a boost with endorsements from several prominent Democratic legislators in Montgomery and Chester Counties: state Sens. Daylin Leach and Andy Dinniman, and just yesterday, state Rep. Michael Gerber.

CA-03: The once-crowded Democratic field in the 3rd, to go up against vulnerable GOP Rep. Dan Lungren, has gotten whittled down to one. Bill Slaton, an executive with Sacramento’s municipal public utility, dropped out and endorsed Ami Bera. With Elk Grove city councilor Gary Davis also having dropped out a few months ago, Bera has a clear shot; Bera, the former Sacramento County Chief Medical Officer, has been going gangbusters on the fundraising front, sitting on $586K (more than Lungren has). Slaton had loaned himself $300K but hadn’t seemed to make much progress beyond that.

FL-10, FL-12: Two Democratic challengers who have favorable circumstances (an aging incumbent who’s barely fundraising in the 10th, an open seat in the 12th) but haven’t gotten far at fundraising yet are getting a boost on the money front. Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley is hosting a Tampa fundraiser for state Sen. Charlie Justice, while Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Allen Boyd are hosting a DC fundraiser for Polk Co. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards (although perception-wise, it’s probably not good that it’s being held in a lobbyist’s office).

MN-01: Another Republican challenger showed up to take on sophomore Rep. Tim Walz in Minnesota’s rural 1st. Unlike former state Rep. Allen Quist (who was at his peak in the 90s), Randy Demmer is a current state Rep.

NH-02: State Rep. John DeJoie, who’s been expected to run, made official that he’s getting into the open seat race for the 2nd on the Democratic side. DeJoie has been a firefighter in Concord for 14 years; he joins attorney Ann McLane Kuster and may also be joined by Katrina Swett.

NJ-03: Jon Runyan might want to be spending the next few months working on his message discipline instead of playing for the Chargers. Runyan, shortly after announcing that he’d be running against freshman Democratic Rep. John Adler after the football season, turned around and told San Diego reporters that he hadn’t committed to the race yet and was exploring his options. Runyan’s spokesperson then corrected Runyan, saying he’s definitely in the race, and bafflingly said that the latter comment was made “in jest.”

PA-06: The Republican field in the open seat race in the 6th just keeps growing; the fifth entrant is Patrick Sellers, a former Republican committeeman. Sellers is apparently a Paulist, and made his announcement at a Philadelphia “End the Fed” rally. He joins state Rep. Curt Schroder, pharma exec Steven Welch, Chester Co. Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello, and long-ago state Revenue Secretary Howard Cohen.

PA-19: It’s not clear yet whether Rep. Todd Platts is even going to get chosen as head of the GAO, but Republicans are already lining up to take over his dark-red seat if he does. Roll Call lists a bunch of ’em, starting with state Rep. Scott Perry, who’s already making his interest public. Eyes are also on one of Platts’ 2000 primary opponents, York County Commissioner Chris Reilly. The article also lists a slew of other possible state legislators and county officials.

NH-St. Sen.: Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty really, really wants to do lots of favors for the good people of New Hampshire, and he’s starting by hosting a fundraising event for Republicans in its state Senate, who are currently down 14-10 in that chamber. Interestingly, ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley (who downshifted to the state Senate) is on the host committee and a key recipient of the help, which may lead to the question of whether he’s looking for leverage for trying something bigger again in the future.

KY-St. Sen.: Here’s a positive tea leaf as we head into the home stretch on the special election in the Bardstown-based SD-14 next week (one of the two seats strategically excised of its Republican occupants by Democratic governor Steve Beshear): Democratic former state Rep. Jodie Haydon has raised more than four times the funds as Republican state Rep. Jimmy Higdon ($546K for Haydon, including in-kind contributions from the state Dems, vs. $131K for Higdon). Much of Haydon’s money is coming from the horse industry, which has fallen squarely behind the Dems in recent months as state Democrats seek to allow video slots at horsetracks (something Higdon and most local GOPers oppose). A Dem pickup here would cut the GOP advantage in the state Senate to 19-18 (with one GOP-leaning indie).

VA-St. Sen.: The special election to fill two vacant, formerly GOP-held state Senate seats has been set for Jan. 12. The race to take over the heavily Republican SD-8 in Virginia Beach (vacated by new Virginia Beach Sheriff Ken Stolle) doesn’t look to be very interesting; only two Republicans have signed up for it so far. Dems may have a shot at a pickup in the swingy SD-37 in Fairfax County, vacated by new AG Ken Cuccinelli. Democratic state Del. David Marsden has confirmed that he’ll run for the promotion. Dems have a narrow 21-19 edge in the Senate, which they’d like to pad in case incoming Gov. Bob McDonnell attempts any Beshear-style poaching.

Mayors: The Atlanta mayoral runoff is tonight, between white city councilor Mary Norwood and African-American former state Sen. Kasim Reed. (The one public poll of the race gave Reed a small edge.) Norwood’s final ad, and the final debate, point to how the runoff has gotten racially fraught as it comes to a close. There are also four legislative runoff elections scattered around Georgia tonight, although two are Dem/Dem and one is GOP/GOP. The remaining one, in HD-141 in Milledgeville, is between independent Rusty Kidd and Democrat Darrell Black.

Redistricting: Dave’s Redistricting App is starting to add partisan political data (the 2008 presidential election results). First up is Maryland. Give it a whirl, and leave your feedback in Dave’s diary. (D)

Redistricting fans may also want to head over to CQ today, where long pieces by both Bob Benenson and Greg Giroux give an overview of where the fireworks will be in the coming few years.

95 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 12/1”

  1. First, the recent tax amnesty was statewide, not limited to Sizemore (as implied in the OP), expired on Nov 19.

    In several recent cases, all that opponents of a Sizemore initiative really needed to do was put his picture in their literature. No explanation of the issue was required. The Sizemore initiative went down.

    So it’s quite possible that a Sizemore candidacy in ’10 could do in OR what some here hope a Palin candidacy would do for D numbers in Congress in ’12.

  2. The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations, except as to the Places of chusing Senators.  Article I, § 4

    Why doesn’t Congress take this golden opportunity to take redistricting away from the states? It seems to me that it can.

  3. Here’s the Des Moines Register blog:

    Gov. Chet Culver’s campaign manager said today he has resigned, citing personal reasons for leaving the Democrat’s re-election bid after only three months.

    Andrew Roos, who was hired in September to manage Culver’s re-election campaign, said he had decided to step down before Thanksgiving and that Culver did not ask him to quit. According to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, Culver’s job approval has fallen steadily throughout the year and last month was behind potential Republican challengers in hypothetical match-ups.

    Deputy campaign manager Jesse Harris, who was hired along with Roos, will serve as interim manager until a permanent successor is hired, Roos said.

    “We’re leaving on totally friendly terms,” Roos told The Des Moines Register. “I want to do whatever I can for the governor.”

    Roos declined to elaborate on the reasons for the decision. The 34-year-old native of South Bend, Ind., is single and came to Culver’s campaign after having managed Democrat Jack Markell’s winning campaign for Delaware governor last year. […]

    There is plenty of time for Culver to establish a strong campaign, Roos said. The campaign’s main focus will be fundraising through the end of the year and making key staff decisions.

    “There’s more than enough time to build a great campaign and I think he’ll do that,” Roos said.

  4. For months, Bleeding Heartland commenters have speculated that Christian Fong would end up as Terry Branstad’s running mate next year. It would be a good choice, as Fong is young and from eastern Iowa (Cedar Rapids), where the GOP has been getting killed in recent statewide elections.

    For what it’s worth, I keep hearing through the Des Moines rumor mill that Branstad plans to pick former insurance company CEO Doug Reichardt to be the lieutenant governor candidate.

  5. But Time Magazine has online voting so readers can put their input in for Person of the Year.  You can rate each of the 10 candidates on a scale from 1-100.  For me the choice was easy – The Iranian Protesters.  That is the current leader.

    By current Avg rating:

    1. Iran Protesters

    2. Barack Obama

    3. Steve Jobs

  6. Besides the obvious inter-party race in HD-141, pay attention to HD-58.  Simone Bell sounds like a really good Democrat with concern for social justice and equality.  As a footnote: if elected, she’d be the second openly gay person ever elected to the Georgia General Assembly and the first from a racial minority group.

  7. A partial verdict but no closure in this very sad story:

    Jurors in the theft trial of Sheila Dixon convicted the Baltimore mayor Tuesday on a single charge of taking gift cards intended for the city’s poor.

    Although Dixon was acquitted of a felony theft charge, her misdemeanor conviction could force her from office.

    Jurors deliberated more than six days after hearing the Democrat was accused of using or keeping $630 worth of gift cards. She allegedly solicited most of the cards from a wealthy developer and then bought electronics at Best Buy, clothes at Old Navy and other items at Target.

    The jury convicted her on one count of fraudulent misappropriation by a fiduciary and acquitted her on two counts of felony theft and one count of misconduct in office. Jurors failed to reach a verdict on another count of fraudulent misappropriation by a fiduciary. The conviction carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison, but prosecutors have not decided whether they will seek jail time.

    “The city will still continue to move forward,” Dixon said outside the courthouse after the verdict. “This city will continue to run. … We won’t miss a step.”

    The jury was hung on the count of embezzlement. Dixon was accused of violating her fiduciary duties to the city and citizens of Baltimore by taking the six Toys “R” Us gift cards intended for the city housing department’s 2007 Holly Trolley tour. Juror No. 3 said the jury was split, 9-3, in favor of convicting the mayor on this charge.

    Looking ahead, [State Prosecutor Robert A.] Rohrbaugh said that he needs time to think about how to proceed on Count Six, the charge of embezzlement on the Holly Trolley gift cards. And the mayor’s legal troubles aren’t over with this case. She faces a separate trial on perjury charges stemming from accusations that she didn’t report gifts from Lipscomb.

    I’d love to hear from any Baltimoreans on how likely it is that your Mayor will resign or be forced out, and who would replace her. I can hardly imagine how depressing it is to live in a city with a mayor who’s acted like that.

  8. PPP: Why Harry Reid’s position may not be quite as bad as it looks

    Nevada is the only closely contested state I can think of last year where the pollsters were not only pretty universally off, but also pretty universally all off in the same direction. When we went back after the election to see where we went wrong it seemed like the culprit was significantly under measuring Obama’s share of the Hispanic vote. Nevada is also one of the fastest growing states in the country and that could trip up pollsters as well, especially ones like us who sample based on past voting history.

  9. Jon Meacham: Why Dick Cheney Should Run in 2012

    I think we should be taking the possibility of a Dick Cheney bid for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 more seriously, for a run would be good for the Republicans and good for the country.

    Why? Because Cheney is a man of conviction, has a record on which he can be judged, and whatever the result, there could be no ambiguity about the will of the people.

    I’m not too familiar with Meacham. Is this snark? Damn straight, the result would be unambiguous! And yes, there is in fact a “Draft Dick Cheney 2012” website. (I won’t link it, but you can find it if you like.) Fortunately for the Republicans, Cheney seems to have no interest in running for office again.

  10. At first glance, I really like what I see with DeJoie. He has the words “Medicare for All” bolded out on his website. That’s usually a good sign. I’ve heard good things about Kuster too, but I’m having a hard time finding information about her, and she doesn’t have an issues page up. As of right now I think I’m leaning DeJoie, though that could change over the course of the campaign. I look forward to the debates and future fund raising numbers. This looks like it will turn out to be a very good primary.

  11. Democrat Darrell Black is leading by five votes (which is actually 15 points) with all of Putnam County in (recall, only a sliver of Putnam County is in the district, accounting for just 2% or so of the district).

    I’m not sure how much to read it to it, but the fact that a Democrat is leading the very Republican area is encouraging.  As a purple-blue county, hopefully Baldwin County will continue this trend.

  12. Who should PPP test against Obama in their national survey?


    VOTE RUDY!! He is the only (other than Dick) who passes for more than Generic R. Romney and Huckabee are not as well known as we like to think. And Palin is just Palin. Anything to make sure T-Paw isn’t tested again!  

  13. Marriage equality just went down, 24-38. The only undecided Democrats who ended up supporting it were Valesky and Foley I believe.

    I hope as many of the nay votes get serious challengers as is realistic. At least that asshole Monserrate will be gone soon.

  14. Petty corruption like this is sadly all too common amoungst Baltimore, MD politicians. Sadly the crooked pols protrayed in The Wire are actually pretty accurate.

    As for falls from grace for petty theft please remember a former US VP from Maryland lost the Vice Presidency (and a chance to be President) because he got caught stealing a fridge full of meat!

    I just hope Kweisi Mfume runs for Mayor. He is one of the few really good pols to come out of Baltimore. I think it was a shame he lost the Senate primary in 2006.

  15. It’ll be close.  But his bankroll and title (and the benefits of having the Majority Leader), the general lean of the state, and the fact that the two biggest standard bearers for the other side in the state (Gibbons and Ensign) are tarnished will carry him over.  

  16. Nor do I think it will be especially close unless Reid really blows it on HCR.  As long as a decent HCR bill passes my guess is he wins by something like a 5-10 point margin.

  17. And there’s no doubt that part of President Obama’s margin of victory was due to high motivation on the part of his supporters.

  18. It’s a perfect example of how out of touch the DC pundits are with the American people.  Meacham’s column was so sweful I thought it was satire.  Sadly it’s for real.  That guy gives David Broder a run for his money.

  19. But he’s right, at least that Cheney’s possibly more interested than he lets on. I’m not certain he’ll run, but my instinct is that he’s considering it.

    I wouldn’t mind, either. Only Palin, at this point, could be a weaker nominee.  

  20. Made a similar argument a couple months ago in the New York Times, although he stated that Cheney should have been the 2008 nominee.  His point was that if Cheney is so insistent on popping off to the press about how bad Obama is and how Bush got an unfair shake, he should have run so we could have an open, unmitigated debate over the Bush administration and the actions it took.  At least he wasn’t delusional though, as he admitted that Cheney would have lost in a landslide.

  21. In 2008 that race would have made Obama-McCain look like a nailbiter by comparison.  Obama might have even had a shot in states like Kansas and the Dakotas with Cheney as an opponent.  Probably the same deal if Cheney was their 2012 nominee.

  22. Cheney knows he’d get blown out by Obama in a general, and then he’d have to stfu after that because nobody would care about what he had to say anymore.  That’s why he keeps hiding behind friendly conservative media making potshots like a coward.

  23. I think he preferred to work in the shadows. But anyway, we agree that he would have no chance to win an election, whatsoever.

  24. I’ve liked Suozzi, but I have no idea what he’d be like in that kind of position. Does anyone have any insight?

  25. to tell us that Rudy will never, or at least not in the foreseeable future, be elected President. He’s a New Yorker, stereotypically New York-abrasive, pro-choice, pro-gay rights, etc. He really is an authoritarian law and order social liberal, and otherwise a moderate Republican – more moderate than probably any of the Republican senators other than maybe the two from Maine. Of course, if he ran to the right and won, who knows how he’d actually govern as President. But he will never get that far. I think his only chance, and it’s a very slim one, is to be selected as a running mate, and succeed a Republican President after something happened to them.

  26. He’s as solid of a candidate the GOP could run in 2012.  He’s conservative but in a low key manner and does not have foot in mouth disease like most of the potential republican candidates.  I’d like to see him polled most out of the bunch listed by PPP with Pawlenty and Barbour second.

  27. Cheney always struck me as more of behind the scenes guy.  Even if he were 1 years younger and in better health I couldn’t really see him running for President.

  28. But rather $530 stolen from poor people.  At least republicans are better at hiding the fact they pickpocket poor people.

  29. But a behind the scenes guy wouldn’t be up on television every week talking about how his political opponents are going to destroy the country. What else does he gain other than to keep his name out there? If Cheney was planning on quietly going to the Old Vice Presidents home, he’d leave the natl. security doommongering to his progeny. He is, as the cliche phrase goes, up to something.

    I have to admit, I forgot about his health issues. But I have a counter argument!

    Let’s say parts of the Republican establishment decide they’ve really got no chance to win in 2012. (I think JSmith or someone else has already broached this kind of concept, but they suggested Palin would be the nominee) So, instead of running one of their ‘promising’ candidates as a sacrificial lamb, i.e. Jindal, Palin, Thune, whoever else, they throw Cheney in.

    He’d get to go around the country for nine months talking about how terrible Obama is, and how the country would be less safe if he’s reelected. He loses. Badly. What does Cheney care? He’s already one of the least popular Vice Presidents in recent memory, he never gave half a damn about that at any point during the Bush years.

    Cheney would go out with a bang, and the GOP could preserve its resources for ’16.

    The crux of my argument is this. Beyond his health issues, Cheney has nothing to lose. Popularity is gone, money isn’t an issue, and he’s certainly got the ideology to motivate himself.

    Yes, this is crackpot nonsense. I suspect with this (and my weird-ass rant about Olympia Snowe and a primary a few weeks ago) I’ll build my reputation as SSP’s leading source of half-assed analysis. But I’m hoping I’m on to something here.  

  30. No party ever throws in the towel in a Presidential election like that anymore and never would.  It’s EXTREMELY wishful thinking to assume Obama will be some invincible juggernaut come 2012 and the GOP will be cowering fear and only offer up a sacrifical lamb.  Cheney in 2012 is Jon Meachem stealing Ross Douthat’s column idea and rehashing it because he’s a hack and can’t write himself out of a paper bag (did you read American Lion? Christ it was painful).

  31. Bob Dole was an aweful candidate in 1996 and it was evident the entire race that Dole would lose and lose badly.  They could have found someone better than him to run.

  32. But he wasn’t a “fuck it, we’re tossing up a sacrifical lamb that’s going to get blown out” candidate like Cheney.  A truly sacrifical lamb was 1940 when the GOP nominated Wendell Willkie, a candidate who fell under the category of “some dude” because no sane politician was going to challenge an incumbent as popular as FDR.  Dole in 1996 was more of a function of “it’s my turn now,” and had all of the establishment support so no GOP politico wanted to challenge that, only to have Ross Perot screw them again in the general.  Putting up a Cheney-type of candidate would be incredibly devastating – you’d be telling all of your activists, donors, and elected officials that their efforts will be meaningless that cycle.  It would be demoralizing and the downballot effect would be way too damaging.  I guess we have a different view of what sacrifical lamb is, but Dole was at least a competent, likable, establishment-backed alternative to Clinton who could let the party save face and still be competitive if shit hit the fan for the incumbent and give the downballot folks a fighting chance.  Mondale in 1984 falls under the same category.

  33. Their most articulate/informed since Goldwater.

    No aspect of that race was taken for granted or conceded.  Perot’s impact was thought to be far stronger than it turned out to be.  Many states did not go blue till Perot fizzled ou in October.

  34. whereas I was having trouble deciding before whether Monserrate or Espada was scummier, I can now safely say that Monserrate wins that dubious honor.

  35. And it also shows how the gay marriage issue is divided down racial lines.  Until the black and latino communities sign on to marriage equality, it will be very difficult for New York or other heavily Democratic states to move forward.

  36. Given the right political environment, we can do it now. I would note that in California equality passed both houses of the legislature–though Arnold vetoed the bill. In New York, we have room to spare in the Assembly. Ultimately it comes down to whether you have enough white liberals.

    It would be great to have blacks and latinos on board. But that is a long term battle. What matters is that the people they elect feel comfortable voting for marriage equality. This is not impossible. A comparable example is with abortion rights. Bennie Thompson is pro-choice and votes concomitantly, even though I would guess that a majority of his delta constituents are not.  

  37. Is that even friggin corporations are ahead of our state and federal government on this issue.  My large company, like many others offers the same benefits to all couples regardless of orientation.  How sad is it that corporations are more progressive than the friggin government/legislators?

  38. A lot of black and latino incumbents don’t feel comfortable voting for such a measure because of threats from their constituencies.  California is a tad different because of the strict term limits – no one really gets primaried because it’s easier to wait for the damn seat to be open.  Plus, black and latino politicians in California tend to be more socially liberal anyway.  The problem is that in states like New Jersey, Illinois, and Maryland, all of which have had or currently have Governors that would sign on to marriage equality, the process has been holed up because the minority legislators that make up such a large part of their respective caucuses won’t get on board.  We can’t rely on white liberals to carry this banner forever.  They’ve done a lot for us the past 30 years, but we need a broader coalition to sustain the momentum, particularly as the nation becomes more diverse.

  39. Do you have actual numbers?  I’ll bet the % of AA legislators supporting this issue in states where votes have been taken if far higher than the % of white legislators who voted for it.  

  40. Can’t he just sign an execuritve order and eliminate don’t ask don’t tell whenever he wants?  The vast majority of the public supports allowing them to serve openly.  It doesn’t even require much political capital.

  41. I just looked up his old campaign website and he had the balls to display the Stonewall Democrats endorsement on his page. Would he theoretically be vulnerable in a primary? I doubt this one issue is enough to take down an otherwise liberal senator especially in a non-bohemian district but I figured it wouldn’t hurt to ask.

    Btw, what happened with Alesi? wasn’t he supposed to be leaning yes at some point?

  42. But he’d be stepping into a huge pile of shit with that one.  The criticism to Clinton was that he didn’t listen enough to military leaders, not to mention Congress would pitch a fit over losing authority on the matter.

  43. It was almost an “FU Paterson for continually forcing this issue on us” from some of these guys.  I’m pissed over it.  Addabbo backstabbed the gay community and overall it looks like we lost some votes that we had as hard commits before the Senate meltdown this past summer.

  44. if it weren’t for black Democratic lawmakers from Baltimore and Prince George’s County who said they won’t vote for it.  In 2007 there were at least 7 by my count in the State Senate who wouldn’t support it, enough to keep it from hitting the floor.

  45. you see the same dynamic in RI too. for instance one of gay marriage’s main supporters is Dominican state Sen. Juan Pichardo while the Speaker of the House, Irish Catholic William Murphy, has been instrumental in obstructing the bill. (to be clear, many working-class white Catholics support gay marriage, although I suppose most of those are cafeteria Catholics.)

  46. That’s the rub – gay marriage is still a divisive enough issue you need almost universal support to pass it.  Losing even a few bleeds off precious votes.

    And to anyone reading this, I’m not trying to single out minority communities over gay marriage.  For instance, we certainly need to do a better job of convincing older voters that gays aren’t some scary, sex-crazed people that will steal their children.  It’s just frustrating that for voters and legislators that are usually 100% down-the-line progressive on every other issue, it’s gay marriage that we lose them on.  We’re certainly not going to be convincing white rural conservatives at any point (those type of states will almost certainly have to be forced in through litigation), so focusing on those groups that are usually progressive makes the most sense.

  47. Ten years ago if you told me we’d have as many states as we have with either full marriage rights or civil unions in 2009 I would have laughed.  

    The momentum is on our side and every poll of people under 30 bears this out.  The Gen X and Y’s are overwhelmingly supportive of it and will eventually be a majority of voters.

    States like California, Maine and New York have suffered short-term setbacks and nothing more.  Over the long-run tolerance wins and hate always loses.

  48. But we’ve got some well-funded, well-organized opponents that are hellbent on stopping us because they know the day marriage equality is universal in this country it’s game over for them – homosexuality will be viewed as a part of the human condition and bigotry won’t be tolerated anymore.  Ask anyone who suffered through the AIDS epidemic, and they’ll tell you it set back rights for gays an entire decade.  We can’t get blindsided like that again.

    I’ve got some dear friends who’ve been fighting for gay rights since the days of Harvey Milk, and it breaks my heart every time I think they may not live to see the day their work finally comes to fruition.  Waiting till we’re older works for us younger types, but not for those who’ve waited all their lives.

  49. I think there was this certain Republican President who served back in the 1980’s who may challenge you on that.  God, what was his name, I keep needing GOPers to evoke it at every possible second so I can remember…

  50. I said articulate/informed, not “folksy communicator”.

    Reagan in 1964 maybe, but in the 80s he was in the early stages of Alzheimer’s.  Reagan as a policy wonk is a new one.

  51. That guy from California who right-wingers idolize as a taxcutter who actually raised taxes multiple times.

  52. Of course we all know Reagan bloated the government and the deficit. He also supported amnesty for illegal aliens. He didn’t listen to the military when the military was telling him to get our troops out of Lebanon. He sold weapons to Iran and he opposed California’s antigay Prop 6 and hosted the first openly gay sleepover at the White House. And he supported…the Brady bill!

    Indeed, the Reagan administration would flunk the test with flying colors. After item one comes item five, which insists that anyone who would call themselves Republican oppose “amnesty for illegal immigrants”; well, it was Reagan who signed into law the 1986 amnesty bill that is so hated by opponents of illegal immigration.

    Item No. 7 demands “containment of Iran,” a nation to which the Reagan administration sold weapons. Strike three. Take his name off that airport!

  53. Disagree with his policies, but Reagan was the best communicator the GOP had.  Goldwater was a zealot – besides his 1964 convention speech, what other great lines or oratories is he known for?  Plus, Reagan didn’t refer to himself in the third person.

  54. ‘ve got some dear friends who’ve been fighting for gay rights since the days of Harvey Milk, and it breaks my heart every time I think they may not live to see the day their work finally comes to fruition.  Waiting till we’re older works for us younger types, but not for those who’ve waited all their lives.

    were the older women and older blacks who had such fervent support of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama because they realized that they probably wouldn’t live to see a woman/black get elected President.

  55. But they are losing.  Even they can plainly see that.  Progressively higher support for gay rights/marriage equality can be seen in almost any poll.  Even their supposed “victories” like in California are widely believed to be very temporary.  

    Time is always on our side.  With few exceptions progressives win in the long-run and conservatives lose by nature.

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