SSP Daily Digest: 12/16

AR-Sen: State Sen. Kim Hendren got some early attention as the first entrant in the GOP field to take on Blanche Lincoln, but a few feet-in-mouth later, he doesn’t seem to be taken seriously much anymore. He seems to be trying to fix that by loaning himself $200K for his campaign.

AZ-Sen: A new poll from Republican pollster the Tarrance Group (paid for by Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, presumably on John McCain’s behalf, as it also did anti-J.D. Hayworth message testing) shows McCain faring much better in a potential Republican primary against ex-Rep. Hayworth than a Rasmussen poll did last month; they have McCain beating Hayworth 56-36, and with a 78/20 favorable. Also, Grant Woods, a former Arizona Attorney General (and more significantly, a former McCain chief of staff) filed an FEC complaint against Hayworth, accusing him of using his talk radio bullhorn to promote his potential candidacy.

CO-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is facing something of a teabagger deficit, having been ordained as the GOP establishment’s candidate. But she’s trying to make up for that with some red meat that pleasantly surprised members of the hard right she was appearing in front of: she advocated eliminating the Dept. of Education. (Actually, maybe that should be described as green meat, considering how long that moldy idea has been sitting on the shelf. Ask President Bob Dole how that one went over.)

CT-Sen: Ralph Nader reiterated his interest to the Princeton University newspaper (his alma mater) in running as a Green in the Connecticut race, saying he’s encouraged by the nation’s anti-incumbent mood. The netroots’ other least favorite person, Joe Lieberman, is heading the opposite direction: aware that any hope of winning a Democratic nomination in 2012 vaporized this week, he’s now making noises about seeking the Republican nomination instead. One other 2010 note: Barack Obama plans to appear on NBC’s “WWE Tribute to the Troops” special to deliver a tombstone piledriver to Linda McMahon. Ooops, actually, it looks like he’s just delivering a holiday message to the troops.

IL-Sen: It looks like all that pandering to the right wing is finally paying off for Rep. Mark Kirk; he got $5,000 from the Koch Industries PAC (Koch is one of the biggest funders of the right, including of operations like Freedom Works and the Cato Institute). It also got him a brief bit of praise from Sarah Palin via Twitter, after months of tugging at her sleeve for help. Erick Erickson still isn’t buying what Kirk is selling, though, saying in his usual understated manner that Kirk “will knife [conservatives] in the chest with a smile once he gets to D.C.”

NV-Sen: This ought to just further rev up right-wingers who view former state GOP chair and former Miss New Jersey Sue Lowden as a RINO in the making. Turns out she claimed to be pro-choice when representing a Dem-leaning state Senate seat in the 1990s, while today she’s claiming Roe v. Wade is a “bad decision.” One more flip-flop that’ll have to be dealt with, just like her previous support of Harry Reid.

NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper had been making noises about a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand for many months, but apparently a face-to-face meeting with her was more than satisfactory to him, and he came out of it with an effusive endorsement of Gillibrand instead. And while we discussed the possibility of a William Thompson primary yesterday on the front page, there were also some other numbers from yesterday’s Siena and Quinnipiac polls. Quinnipiac tested out Rudy Giuliani numbers, and found that on the off chance he runs, he’d beat both Gillibrand (50-40) and Thompson (52-36). Siena went with a whole bunch of permutations, finding Gillibrand losing to Giuliani 49-42, but beating ex-Gov. George Pataki (46-43) and Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman (52-22). Thompson loses to both Giuliani (56-34) and Pataki (49-36) but beats Blakeman (40-23). They even tried out an improbable-looking GOP primary, finding Giuliani at 57 and Pataki at 26, followed by ex-state Sen. Michael Balboni at 7, Liz Feld at 6, and Blakeman at 4.

SD-Sen: John Thune can consider himself safe for next year. He beats a Generic Dem 56-33 (fitting, since no one is running against him yet), and has approvals of 57/35. The only cloud on his horizon is that his constituents don’t want him to run for President, by a 28/55 margin.

FL-Gov: Rasmussen threw in a Florida gubernatorial race general election question to their Senate race sample (which leads to the question: are there going to be Meek/Crist and Meek/Rubio numbers forthcoming?). They find that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a small lead over Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 44-39, but that Sink has more room to grow (24% have no opinion of Sink vs. 16% for McCollum).

KS-Gov: That didn’t last long: the Kansas Dems thought they finally had a decent gubernatorial candidate in retired businessman Tom Wiggans, but he just ended his infant campaign. He cited trouble fundraising, although recent bad press about a settlement by his pharmaceutical company probably helped prompt his move too.

NY-Gov: That same Quinnipiac sample also took a look at the New York Governor’s race, finding a la Siena, that the resurrection of David Paterson (from DOA to slightly less DOA) continues apace. They find Paterson beating Republican ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 41-37, and with an approval of 40/49 and favorable of 38/44. Paterson shouldn’t break out the champagne, though, as he still loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo, 60-23, and Cuomo goes on to beat Lazio 62-22.

CT-05: The former occupant of the 5th, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson, endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to try and take the seat back for the GOP. The awkward part is, Caligiuri’s primary opponent Justin Bernier is still touting Johnson’s endorsement of him too. Johnson said that she did in fact back Bernier — up until the moment Caligiuri (her 2002 campaign co-chair) got into the race.

FL-08: I’m a little confused here, because it seemed like the GOP was desperately casting about for any sort of elected official to go up against Rep. Alan Grayson for a long time, and finally settled on businessman Bruce O’Donoghue… but now that all that sturm and drang is over, state Rep. Kurt Kelly says he’s likely to get into the race against Grayson. Kelly’s name rarely appeared on the list of potential candidates, leaving me to wonder why the NRCC didn’t express any interest in him and whether they’ll continue to back O’Donoghue here.

HI-01: Hawaii may try something new in the wake of the realization that it doesn’t have the money to hold a special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Elections officer Kevin Cronin says that he can’t fight that feeling anymore that Hawaii may have to follow the lead of the northwestern states and conduct an all mail-in ballot. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Ed Case isn’t wasting any time; he’s already hitting the airwaves with his first TV spot.

KS-03: Despite party efforts to coalesce behind state Sen. Nick Jordan, we’ve definitely got a contested GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. State Rep. Kevin Yoder confirmed he’s getting into the race.

MD-01: What is this, the 80s? The NRCC is actually pulling out the “soft on crime” card as they road-test different lines of attack on freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil. Kratovil made his name as the Queen Anne’s County state’s attorney (and escaped previous “soft on crime” attacks last year in his first matchup against state Sen. Andy Harris), so they’re trying to hit him on his strengths.

NJ-07: One swing district with a freshman GOPer where the Dems have had no luck filling out their dance card is the wealthy suburban 7th. Without an elected officials interested in the race, Dems are looking at cumbersome-named Dem fundraiser Zenon Christodolou to go up against Rep. Leonard Lance.

NY-23: A month after the fact, we finally have our official count from the special election in the 23rd (hence our finally calling our predictions contest!). Bill Owens got 73,137 votes (48.3%) to 69,553 (46.0%) for Doug Hoffman and 8,582 (5.7%) for Dede Scozzafava; the final count brought Hoffman a little closer.

NC-08: With a lot of liberals feeling burned by freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s voting record since getting into the House, there’s actually talk of a primary challenge happening. Chris Kouri, who ran for the seat in 2002 and surprised a better-known Dem in the primary before losing the general to Robin Hayes, is being courted by some in the district for another run. Kouri is the general counsel for the Lowe’s Motor Speedway.

PA-06: State Rep. Curt Schroder got an endorsement from a once-prominent conservative, ex-Rep. Bob Walker, a key Newt Gingrich henchman back in the day as well as an Elmer Fudd lookalike. Walker used to represent part of Chester County, much of which was contained in the 16th under the 1990s map. That didn’t deter one more no-name Republican from getting in the already-crammed field: geologist Walt Hufford, who sits on the board of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council and plans to run as a moderate.

TN-01: Get ready for Roe v. Davis, part III. Ex-Rep. David Davis, narrowly beaten by Rep. Phil Roe in a GOP primary in this dark-red district in 2008, says to Politico that he’s “strongly leaning” toward another matchup.

TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy has a slight problem that could hurt him in his GOP primary in the open seat race to succeed Bart Gordon: in the 1990-2002 time period, he voted in six Democratic primaries (Tennessee voters can crossover in primaries) and only two GOP primaries. Of course, Tracy offers the defense that, in that part of the state, there was nothing to vote for but Democrats back then, but that’s more grist for the teabagger mill as other candidates (like Lou Ann Zelenik) seek to woo the hard right.

Retirements: A little more followup on the retirements front, in the wake of our front-page post yesterday: Rick Boucher and Allen Boyd have now confirmed with party leaders that they, too, will be back for re-election next year. (No surprise on Boyd, as he’s already hitting the airwaves in his primary fight.) Lincoln Davis also reaffirmed his commitment, saying he’s “running come hell or high water,” and also saying he’s not worried about the specter of GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, saying he can’t be put “in any more conservative district.” (SSP’s crack team of redistricters may disagree with him on that one!)

House: Nancy Pelosi seems to be getting fed up with the Senate in many ways, and one smart way she’s fighting back is saying that the House won’t be going first on the tough votes anymore, and that she’ll act on potentially divisive issues like EFCA and immigration reform only after the Senate has hashed it out. She has to be concerned with shielding her most vulnerable members from voting on tough votes like HCR and cap and trade only to see the legislation head into purgatory in the Senate.

87 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 12/16”

  1. the subtly-named, 17-member “Democratic Retirement Assault List” is now down to 6.

    Bart Gordon will retire.

    Ike Skelton, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, Earl Pomeroy, Tim Holden, Colin Peterson, and Marion Berry will stand for re-election according to recent SSP entries.

    Additionally, Mike Ross has a campaign site up for his re-election.  Vic Snyder said back in May 2009 that he will run, although that may be tenuous.  Alan Mollohan has recently said through a spokesman that he will run.

    That leaves Nick Rahall, John Spratt, Baron Hill, Sanford Bishop, Loretta Sanchez, and Leonard Boswell.

    Very worried about Spratt.  Seems like he would have announced his plans with this current wave that has been reported on SSP, unless he is really thinking about retiring.  

  2. is a good idea.

    The article said they’ve done it previously for a City Council special election, so they’ve got that experience to draw from and step up to the next level in size.

    And special elections are usually low participation & low interest for most voters anyway.

    HOWEVER, hopefully the rules they would set are that ballots must be received by election day, rather than postmarked by election day and everyone waits X number of days for mail delivery. (Plus have a few drop off points on election day for procrastinators.)

  3. What is it that Roe and Davis have against each other?  Are they just doing the whole “I’m more conservative!!” “No, I’M more conservative!!!” thing?

  4. Rasmussen

    12/14/09; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error

    Mode: Automated phone

    (Rasmussen release)

    Florida

    2010 Senate

    Crist 42%, Meek 36% (chart)

    Rubio 49%, Meek 35% (chart)

    I mean really…  This is so against the CW…  There’s no way that’s accurate.  We need another poll stat.

  5. Grant Woods isn’t attacking Hayworth on behalf of McCain.  The two were once close, but Woods grew to hate McCain because McCain became, he felt, too conservative.  Interestingly, Woods and McCain are both more conservative now than they were in 1999.

    There may be something more interesting afoot here.  Woods is currently serving as Jan Brewer’s campaign co-chair.  Could there be concern within the Brewer camp that Hayworth might go for Governor rather than Senator?

    I can see that being a smart move for Hayworth.  Brewer’s numbers are underwater, but there really isn’t a super-strong candidate in the GOP primary right now to take her out.  The best candidate, State Treasurer Dean Martin, isn’t very well known and doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table.  Rich Dude John Munger has been making some gaffes.  Vernon Parker is mayor of a tiny town with a lot of rich people in it; that’s not how you get to be Governor of Arizona.  Perhaps more importantly, none of the four candidates is a teabagger, and the only potential candidate attractive to teabaggers, Joe Arpaio, is almost certainly not going to run.  So there could be a real opening there for Hayworth.

    That’s my newest theory.  But then again, I was convinced Marilyn Brown was jumping out of the OH SOS race to let Brunner jump back in back in September, and yet here we are almost three months later and Brunner’s still running for Senate.  So what do I know?

  6. Check out this factoid from the Lawrence (KS) Journal-World:

    Kansas Democratic Party staffers released a memo this week highlighting that Republican voter registration numbers in Johnson County slipped from 169,000 to 164,000 from 2006 to November 2009. During that time Democrats gained from 71,000 to 83,000 voters, and unaffiliated voters increased from 99,600 to 104,500.

    To put this in context, in KS-03 in 2006, BEFORE this massive swing, Dennis Moore crushed Chuck Ahner 64-34 as Kathleen Sebelius romped to victory as governor with 58% statewide. Attention, DCCC: This one is winnable. Also, give props to KS staffers for excellent timing on the release…as we know, hope can be a powerful incentive.

    As for the KS-Gov race, with Wiggans out, of elected officials, I think the best candidate would be State Sen. Anthony Hensley (minority leader), who would not have to give up his seat to run.  Well, the best other than current Gov. Mark Parkinson, who still refuses to run. Btw, Gov. Parkinson, now would be a good time to declare your candidacy, on the grounds that Dems now have no one else and Brownback is an evil and scary “Family” member who will run the state into the ground.

  7. I hate to nit-pick but Brewer actually wasn’t the AZ- lt gov as no such position exists.  In AZ the SoS is promoted during a vacancy.

  8. I hate to nit-pick but Brewer actually wasn’t the AZ- lt gov as no such position exists.  In AZ the SoS is promoted during a vacancy.

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