CA-Gov: Brown Loses Ground But Still in Control

Field Poll (pdf) (1/5-17, likely voters, 9/18-10/6):

Meg Whitman (R): 45 (22)

Steve Poizner (R): 17 (9)

Tom Campbell (R): NA (20)

Undecided: 38 (49)

(MoE: ±7.1%)

Jerry Brown (D): 46 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 36 (29)

Undecided: 18 (21)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Steve Poizner (R): 31 (25)

Undecided: 21 (25)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Ex-Gov. Jerry Brown still leads both his potential Republican opponents by solid margins, but it’s worth noting that they’ve made some headway at eating into his once-huge leads. A lot of that has to do with the money that the remaining Republican zillionaires, Meg Whitman and Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner, have been pouring into the race, much from their own pockets, helping them to become better-known… and that Brown has been taking a decidedly hands-off approach to the race (at least publicly) while the other two hit the airwaves. Although he no longer has to worry about a competitive primary, at some point Brown should probably emerge from his meditation chamber and start engaging the race.

Both Republicans added to their numbers in the wake of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell’s jump over to the Senate race, although Meg Whitman seemed to gain the lion’s share. Campbell’s dropout occurred when the poll was in the field; prior to his dropout, they were finding him solidly in second in the GOP primary, at 36-22-9. Whitman is not only better-known than Poizner but better-liked; she has 25/20 favorables, compared with Poizner in negative numbers: 16/20 (Brown clocks in at 44/32).

RaceTracker Wiki: CA-Gov

16 thoughts on “CA-Gov: Brown Loses Ground But Still in Control”

  1. Unless Poizner moves to the right, I can’t see how Whitman doesn’t handily walk away with this; she fits perfectly into the outsider mold that California Republicans would love to run against an establishment vet like Jerry Brown. I suspect the Brown/Whitman and Boxer/? match-ups will deliver pretty similar numbers through November (if anything, edge to Boxer). Can’t picture only Brown OR Boxer winning.

  2. right now,considering that she’s been running ads for literally months and months. Simple name recognition.

    Since it’s likely Brown will be running against a billionaire, I say Brown should conserve his funds now to use later on once he has an opponent to target.  

    Plus, I’m thinking the Repub primary battle between these billionaires at some point will get nasty. So I’m hoping that target will be one battered billionaire in the general election.

  3. that Campbell’s race switch basically torpedoed the chances of two of the five Republicans in the combined-race field: DeVore for the Senate race and Poizner for the House race.  The only question remaining on the GOP side is whether Fiorina’s establishment backing can lift her over Campbell for the Senate race.

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