Illinois Primary Results Thread #2

2:00am: We’ve crossed the threshold into 99% of the vote reporting; Quinn’s lead over Hynes is 5,400, while it’s a little thinner for Brady, who’s up on Dillard by 1,484. Even if we hit 100% reporting at some point tonight, both sides may head to recounts.

1:15am: Still waiting on more numbers, but here’s an interesting bit of trivia: despite winning only 21% of the vote, it looks like Brady won 61 of the state’s 102 counties.

12:50am: Things are still stalled at 98% reporting in the governor’s race. Quinn’s up by about 5,000 on the Dem side, 50.3% to 49.7%. On the GOP side, it’s Brady has a 1,700 vote edge over Dillard, 20.6% to 20.4% (with McKenna in 3rd at 18.9%). Who would’ve ever thought Brady, who’d polled in fourth place for the most part, would pull it out? Looks like he consolidated the Downstate vote while everyone else tore each other apart in the Chicago metro area.

12:07am: It looks like Dillard should be able to pick up about 1,300 votes in the oustanding precincts (most of which are in Cook County). But that won’t be enough.

11:53pm: What a wild ride — with 97% in, Bill Brady is back up over Kirk Dillard by over 2100 votes. How many times did the lead for this race change hands tonight?

11:44pm: Over in IL-10, Julie Hamos has conceded to Dan Seals.

11:39pm: 96.3% in now, and Quinn has expanded his margin over the past few minutes to a bit under 5200 votes. With a lot of the outstanding precincts coming from Cook, Quinn looks like he’ll end up on top — but just barely. For the GOP, Dillard leads Brady by a cool grand.

11:30pm: Ethan Hastert has conceded to Randy Hultgren. Aaron Blake says Hastert has pledged to help Hultgren, unlike the helpful Oberweis/Lauzen debacle. Sigh.

11:25pm: The kids down at the SSP Labs Skunkworks have been furiously scribbling on the backs of envelopes. They tell us that if the remaining precincts follow existing trends, Quinn is likely to pick up about 2,000 more votes on Hynes.

11:20pm: 93.9% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads by 0.6% (or 5,400 votes). The problem for Hynes is that half of the outstanding precincts are in Cook County — I’m not really sure if the outstanding votes downstate will give him enough juice to overcome that deficit.

11:10pm: With 93.1% now in, Quinn’s lead is now at 0.6%. For the GOP, Dillard has leap-frogged ahead of Brady by 2,200 votes.

11:07pm: Looks like Dan Seals has pulled out a squeaker in IL-10. With 99.2% of votes counted, he leads 22,267 to 21,605.

11:04pm: Note to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski: The Illinois filing deadline for independent or third-party candidates is not until June 21st. You still have a second chance!

11:01pm: 91.3% of the vote is now in, and Quinn still leads by 0.8%. Note that the slightly Quinn-friendly DuPage County is now 86.5% in, and 8.3% of the vote is left uncounted in the more Quinn-friendly Cook.

10:56pm: For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by about 3000 votes. (McKenna, in turn, trails Dillard by another 3000.)

10:54pm: With 87% in, Quinn’s lead over Hynes is down to 0.8%. DuPage is now half-in, and 9.6% of precincts are outstanding in the marginally Quinn-friendly Cook County.

10:53pm: Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call says that Hoffman has conceded.

10:51pm: Randy Hultgren seems to have this one sewn up – 54-46 lead with only 12% outstanding.

10:47pm: The Hill’s Aaron Blake says Beth Coulson has conceded IL-10 – Bob Dold! wins.

10:41pm: 82.6% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead has been whittled down to 1.2%. For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by almost 4000 votes.

10:36pm: With 81% of the vote in, Quinn holds stead at a 1.4% lead, but he’s only stemming the bleeding now that more votes are being counted in Cook (where just over 10% of the vote is outstanding). For the GOP, Brady now leads, and McKenna has slipped behind Dillard to third place. Plenty of time for that to flip around, though.

10:29pm: Photo finish? With 79% in, Quinn leads Hynes by 1.4%. For the GOP, McKenna, Brady, and Dillard are in a three-way race for the gube nod — the trio are separated by just 2000 votes.

10:23pm: They spark a fast joint in the 10th CD: Dan Seals is now up by almost 700 votes with just 2.5% remaining. And Randy Hultgren is now up 7 points.

10:22pm: Some more MN-Gov news: On the GOP side, Marty Seifert is cleaning up in the precinct caucuses, 55-34 over Tom Emmer. This will be hard for Emmer to claw his way back from… Seifert probably has to be seen as the favorite for the Republican nomination now.

10:20pm: 75% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead inches down to 1.6%. And it looks like they’re taking a ganja break in IL-10.

10:17pm: 73% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads Hynes by 1.8%. Alexi’s looking a lot more comfortable with a 4.2% lead.

10:12pm: More non-Illinois news: In Minnesota’s precinct-level caucuses, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and and RT Rybak have about 19% apiece. “Uncommitted” is in third with 14%.

10:08pm: 67% in, and Quinn’s lead has been cut down to 2.4%.

10:04pm: With 64% in (and 86% in Cook County), Quinn leads Hynes by 2.8%. Hynes is counting on the outstanding downstate votes to give him a win, but Quinn is also leading in the early DuPage county returns — and less than 10% of the vote has been counted there.

10:01pm: Sadly, in IL-03, Daniel Lipinski is winning his primary with about 77% of the vote. Not that anyone expected his unknown opponent to put up much of a fight. Still, Jorge Mujica is getting 22%… not much worse than the well-funded and somewhat-highly touted Mark Pera got in 2008 (26%).

9:56pm: It’s time for a new thread. Hultgren is up 52-48 over Hastert, with 40% reporting.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

170 thoughts on “Illinois Primary Results Thread #2”

  1. Hamos has to somehow pull a 600-vote margin out of the remaining 29 Cook County precincts. I somehow doubt that’s going to happen.

    The good news is that Seals is going up against Bob Dold, who has to be easier to beat than Mark Kirk.

  2. in Dupage County: 55-35 (10% in)! Lake County came in huge for him too – 65-28 (100% in). He lost a lot of downstate Counties 70%+, it seems.  

  3. notice how underwhelming Kirk is performing. I don’t think that is a good sign for him in November.

  4. Politico hasn’t called for Dold even though he’s up more than 8 points with 94% counted. Come on, he’s obviously won.

  5. Hynes is behind by 2.6%. Again, I think Giannoulis is the winner for Senate and as for Hynes… There is still 15% of the vote to count in Cook County so that will help Quinn. Still, alot of Downstate is not in so there is hope for Hynes. The issue is, Downstate appears to have lower Democratic turnout than Cook County.  

  6. What an underwhelming victory. Kirk absolutely got smashed by Lowery in some of the counties near Kentucky. Hopefully that means angry teabaggers will skip the Senate race in November.

  7. Uncommitted always does so well, even though he doesn’t really seem to have any actual positions on anything. He’s like Generic Democrat in NC or Kelly Ayotte in NH.

  8. With 73% in, Quinn is leading by 12,000 votes and 1.8 points. There is still alot of outstanding votes but one by one, Hynes counties are reporting 100%. Cook still has 14% left to go. If this race does NOT have a recount, I will be surprised.

  9. That was my prediction and it would be so nice to be right! Any ideas on when we will get some more results?

  10. I think Foster has a decent chance. He is a good fit for the district, but Hultgren isn’t exactly Oberweis.  

  11. …IL-10 and IL-14.

    Honestly I feared Coulson the most in 10, and the Hastert boy in 14.  Whatever the cache of being an “outsider” before an angry electorate, establishment choices usually still are stronger.  And in 10, I like our chances a lot against a right-winger like Dold.

  12. in IL-08?  Apparently hasn’t spent any money but he’s winning handily.  Do people think he’s the Eagles guitarist?

    Melissa Bean has to be happy about this.

  13. GO UNCOMMITTED!!!  That’s how I voted.  :)  And Im a senate district delegate, fun fun fun.  

    Not surprised to see MAK and Rybak at the top.  I hope Rybak gets into the primary, him, MAK, Dayton and Entenza should be a good show down.  

  14. Just about 100K dems voted in the Gov primary and decided to vote Kirk or not vote at all in the senate primary.

  15. Given how amazingly close a number of these races are (D-Gov, R-Gov, D- Comptroller, R-Lt Gov, D- CD10), are there additional ballots that will be out there after all of the precincts report?

    I know nothing about Illinois election procedures — I assume that absentees are already included in these numbers, but are there other categories of outstanding ballots that could impact the final results?

    Does anyone else know?


  16. I think your notes to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski are very fine suggestions. We, the people of SSP, fully support both of them running in their respective races!

  17. Kirk Dillard was the guy who appeared in an Obama primary ad almost 2 years ago.  He seems to be a moderate who teabaggers have to hate.

  18. I think they made a mistake in the governor vote totals. Andrzejewski’s web ads told me he was the next Scott Brown, so he should be getting 90% of the vote, not 15%. I’m starting to think Dillard who is actually a closet liberal socialist got his buddies at ACORN to steal the election.

    (sorry, in a really snarky mood tonight for some reason…)

  19. Instant Runoff Voting or at the very least a minimum threshold to avoid a runoff.  Getting the nomination with just 20% is ridiculous.

  20. for Brady vs. Quinn.  Too much Chi-town left for Hynes to win, not enough Chi-town left for Dillard to win.

    Brady vs. Quinn.  Put them both together, and you have a pretty lousy backup quarterback who stumped for McCain.

  21. But who the hell is Bill Brady? Where did he come from?I thought it was supposed to be between McKenna, Dillard, Ryan and the Polish guy

  22. What’s Illinois like with recounts? It looks like the gov races might be determined by 1% or less either way.

  23. He started off EXTREMELY late compared to the other candidates, he ran for mayor again and had to wait til after his re-election in November to start, so only 3 months of campaigning as an actual candidate.  He did certainly campaign like a candidate all along and we all knew what was going on of course.

    Did the college vote decided to turn out for him or something?

    And where is Mark Dayton?  Did he not receive a single ballot?  Or do you have to file something with the DFL to get a line and since he was going for the primary, just didnt bother?

  24. … what percentage of Kirk voters are gonna hold their noses and vote for Brady in the general. It seems like the two of them could scarcely be further apart and be within the same political party.

  25. More precincts in Cook are from the city than the suburbs; Quinn did slightly better in the city than the Cook suburbs.

    Of course, this all really depends on where those outstanding votes are, and how busy the zombies are voting at this time of night.

  26. can make up that many votes in a recount.  There will be some shifting around once ballots are double-checked over.

  27. I feel little danger too for IL-11, IL-14.

    I feel some more danger for IL-State Treasurer and real danger for IL-State Comptroller.

  28. I live in California, but for some odd reason I can access Chicago’s news channel (WGN) 24/7. It was interesting watching it, most of the people on WGN said that Brady came out of nowhere. Definitely surprised Andy McKenna who as they said was doing a “wack a mole strategy.”

  29. By township in the suburbs:

    1 in Bloom

    2 in Bremen

    1 in Cicero

    1 in Evanston

    1 in Lyons

    2 in Niles

    1 in Oak Park

    1 in Orland

    2 in Palatine

    1 in Proviso

    1 in Schaumburg

    1 in Stickney

    5 in Thornton

    In the city:

    21 are in the 1st CD

    7 in the 2nd CD

    7 in the 3rd

    9 in the 4th

    9 in the 5th

    16 in the 7th

    4 in the 9th.

    Brady’s not going to do well here, but a lot of these precincts won’t have very many Republican votes, period. I’m really hoping it’s Brady and not Dillard, but watch those two precincts in Palatine and the one in Schaumburg – they’ll have enough votes to substantially change the margin.

    There’s also one in downstate St. Clair County, which went strongly for Adam Andrzejewski.

  30. when exactly was the Seals internal poll showing him up 50 points on Hamos released? I’m not good at math but I know the difference between 50 and 2.

  31. But, I’ve heard good things about Lynch. I won’t be upset if he doesn’t win, as I see no chance for us to win here. All 3 have had crappy fundraising.  

  32. that map is gonna look weird. Downstaters voting for the African-American over the Indian just because of the guy’s last name.

  33. Lots of Indians in DuPage. Even white voters in DuPage and Lake are probably more familiar with Indians and Indian sounding names.

    Doesnt bode well for the general though. He’s gonna need to have a massive early media campaign in order to get his name recognition up there.  

  34. Who do I fear more? African-American or guy with a funny last name (or Obama who is both). Jokes aside, that’s sad if Democrats downstate are voting like that.  

  35. His Cap and Trade vote really hurts him. Bet some more prominent conservatives are kicking themselves for not getting in.

  36. the recognition might be so bad that they don’t know Miller is an African-American.

    Topinka might have a good shot no matter who wins the primary.

  37. The IL-GOP is screwed. They will have no energizer at the top of the ticket. The best thing for them would be to have McKenna or Adam A. as the gov nominee to get the conservative base out in November.  

  38. 73% in:

    McKenna , Andy GOP 102,438 20%

    Dillard , Kirk GOP 98,820 20%

    Brady , Bill GOP 97,002 19%

    Ryan , Jim GOP 85,085 17%

    Andrzejewski , Adam GOP 74,376 15%

    Proft , Dan GOP 40,871 8%

    Schillerstrom , Bob GOP 4,697 1%

  39. but still. Same thing for the Republican primary in IL-05, Ratowitz has basically won. (which is only fair; Pulido had her chance to be Mike Quigley’s dinner and should make room for others.)

  40. moderate, he actually supported Obama and that could help him among moderates and indipendents. Although you are right about the base.  

  41. or Democrats might be screwed. Dillard is a moderate and probably can pull a lot of Independents/Moderates. Illinois might pull a “we have too many Democrats in Springfield and it would be good to have ‘RINO’ to keep them in check” or something. Or the GOP might be completely unmotivated to turnout and the GOP might lose all statewide races.  

  42. I never expected that. He ran away scared when Evan Bayh decided to challenge him in 1998. Plus he’s 66 now. At least he’s a stronger candidate than Marlin Stutzman.

  43. Cohen, the guy who is currently winning the race is all but a LaRouchie.  This has catastrophy written all over it.  

  44. voters aren’t always that smart. See Massachusetts where some people decided that the best way to check Deval Patrick was to get one of Deval Patrick’s opponents out of state government. (seriously wtf)

  45. Kirk can pull mods/independents into the GOP ticket.

    Unless Quinn is the Dem nominee. Then,we have a good shot with anyone.  

  46. He would’ve been crushed by Bayh and knew it, so he didn’t run.  I think it was 1992.

    I guess he now thinks in a favorable environment he has a shot?

    I’m pretty skeptical, I think yesteryear retreads rarely do well.  Branstad could beat Culver in Iowa, but that would be an exception that proves the rule.  Coats?…I just don’t see it happening for him.

  47. He raised $74k in the last ten days of the 3rd quarter, but if you look at his contributors, it’s pretty obvious he called everyone in his address book to hit them up for money. Then, in all of the 4th quarter, he only managed to raise $93k. I think it would be pretty easy for Foster to beat him.

  48. Nobody knows who he is in Indiana. You can’t disappear for a decade and run against Bayh’s family name. National Democrats might not like him but in Indiana his family has Kennedy prestige.  

  49. like him.  Kirk was no slouch to try to knock off as an incumbent, and you guys don’t know that Julie Hamos would’ve done any better.  She never tried.  Seals should have a good chance against Dole!, I mean Dold!.

  50. I’ve heard nothing about this race. A bad republican primary locks Bean in for a win so you’d think we’d hear more about this. The IL-08 just went from “Likely D” to “Safe Dem” and IL-14 just went from “Leans D” to “Likely D”. Not bad. Even though Seals seems like he’s going to win IL-10 that should also move from “Leans D” to “Likely D”.

    Maybe the Dems just added a house seat here.  

  51. where a Larouche candidate won the Illinois LG Dem primary.  Adlai Stevenson refused to run on the ticket with the Larouche nut and had to form his own party in the process.  Stevenson ended up losing partially because of this.  

    “In the 1986 campaign for Governor, in a fluke, two followers of Lyndon LaRouche won the Democratic Party primary nominations for Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State. Stevenson objected to their platform and refused to appear on the same ticket. Instead, he organized the Solidarity Party to provide an alternate slate for Governor, Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of State, which was duly endorsed by the regular Democratic organization. Persuading Democrats to vote a regular Democratic ticket and then cross over to also vote for the Solidarity candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor and Secretary of State was doomed to fail; however, Stevenson and the candidate for Lieutenant Governor position, Mike Howlett, won 40% of the vote.”

    I don’t see any evidence that Cohen has ties to Larouche, though, so he may be palatable enough as a running mate for whomever wins this crazy primary.

  52. Is this true? Do you have proof to support this claim? If he is this is a VERY BIG deal. Not OK to throw out charges like that without backing it up with some kind of proof.

  53. and I, too, think he will defeat Dold!. Also, if there really was Seals fatigue, he would have lost IMHO

  54. …if we have Seals again, thank God he’s not running against Coulson.  Even with whatever problems he had the last couple times, especially in 2008 when a Democrat should have beaten Kirk with Obama coattails, Seals still should have an edge against a guy as conservative as Dold.

  55. nothing like almost equating someone to a member of an organization that functions like a political cult and has committed criminal acts.

    Considering the inherent power of the position, it’s hard to be unqualified to be Lt. Governor. But if they want good people first in line, don’t hold separate primaries for the top 2 jobs.

  56. Yeah but it only matters if Giannoulis can get some of their votes. Normally in Illinois the Democrat wins Chicago and the Republican wins the suburbs and the rest of the state. This race is going to be very weird. Kirk is very popular in the suburbs but isn’t popular at all in the coal regions (where Obama did surprisingly well in 2008). Can Giannoulis connect with them and take some of their votes or will the lower turnout be enough to cancel Kirk’s popularity in Chicago?

  57. All Lake county votes counted except for provisionals and there will be less than 20 of them.

    Ditto Cook (I think) except for the 4 outstanding precincts of course.

  58. Probably won’t be a recount. Either way Seals or Hamos will beat Dold. What is your problem with Seals – great candidate despite a seriously flawed 2008 campaign. Assuming he learns from his mistakes he will win. Dold is too conservative for the district.

  59. And if you can’t raise money you at least need name identification. Hastert had that in the 14th. This is the best case scenario for Foster. He’s almost a lock with his $1 million war chest.

  60. Also I have no problem with Seals I just liked his Harmos more, and you have to admit she would have been a stronger candidate. Also I only said Dold has a shot, I still consider the race to be leans democrat.  

  61. Like I called it last week:

    He is my rep. He is a moderate (Obama) Republican. Probably winning because everyone else is splitting the conservative base of the Republican party and he is from Dupage County.

  62. The vote totals are virtually identical in the two races — about 830K right now.

    Are you sure you’re factoring in all five Senate candidates, not just the top 2 or 3?

  63. Semi-open. A registered voter must not publicly declare which political party’s primary that they will vote in before entering the voting booth. When a voter identifies their self to the election officials, they must request a party’s specific ballot. Only one ballot is cast by the voter. In many states with semi-open primaries, election officials or poll workers from their respective parties record each voter’s choice of party and provide access to this information. The primary difference between a semi-open and open primary system is the use of a party-specific ballot. In a semi-open primary, a public declaration in front of the election judges is made and a party-specific ballot given to the voter to cast. Certain states that use the open-primary format may print a single ballot and the voter must choose on the ballot itself which political party’s candidates they will select for a contested office.


    Illinois – Semi-Open Primary (Feb 5). Deadline (27 Days – Jan 9).

    That would seem to mean no cross-over of voting D gubernatorial primary and R senatorial primary.

    And then there’s Michigan. Michigan’s August primary, both the D and R races are printed on the same ballot and you can choose to vote in either without anyone knowing which you’re choosing. But all of your votes have to be cast in the same party column. That is, if I vote in the Democratic primary for race A and the Republican primary for race B, my ballot is invalid and thrown out. Every year there are long newspaper articles reminding people, and every year, people spoil their ballots anyway.

  64. Dillard should gain close to 2,000 from the remaining Cook precincts.  There are some strong Brady precincts left downstate to counterbalance that somewhat.  Brady looks like he could squeak this one out.  Brady-Quinn, that has a familiar ring to it.

  65. and former candidate for Congress and Governor. Well, as i wrote in another topic – people seem to be very angry, diasppointed, somewhat dumbfounded anbd ready to go for perceived “outsiders” against status quo. The most clear example: Lt. Governor results (both parties), but also – results of Republican primaries in 8th, 12th and, to some extent (money is also factor here) 10th district. There are some other too. So, if this trend will continue – we will see lots of unexpected results during primary season

  66. there was a news story that he is a creationist.

    But there’s nothing on his web site’s front page about that, not surprisingly.



    Issue highlights:

    Brady is not for abortions in cases of rape and incest nor when just the health of the mother is at risk. The only time he said an abortion should be permitted is if the mother’s life is at stake.

    He opposes gay marriage and civil unions. He voted against the state law passed in 2005 that banned discrimination against gays and lesbians in matters of housing and employment.

    On education, he supports allowing local school boards to teach creationism. Brady wants to eliminate the quasi-independent State Board of Education or, avoiding a constitutional fight, limit it to an advisory role in favor of a down-sized agency answering to the governor.

    To bolster the economy, he would eliminate the sales tax on gas, the state estate tax and multiple taxes and fees imposed by Blagojevich. But he estimates savings of $7 billion a year largely through privatizing Medicaid and making across-the-board spending cuts, a difficult mission if Democrats keep control of the legislature.

  68. But I think that Quinn received some pretty serious blows during this primary — for now, I’d still have to call this race a tossup.

  69. And this Brady character seems like really bad news. No George Pataki, anyway. If I were the DGA, I’d be tapping my accounts to define him, but Chicago TV is $$$$$.

  70. Dillard would have been able to pick off many more moderates and independents in the general than Brady.

    The last 3 Republican Governors (Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar and George Ryan) were all moderates.

    Brady is a down-the-line conservative who doesn’t fit the profile of a winning GOP candidate in Illinois.  

  71. If that lunatic wins the general I’m definitely not sticking around after college. Homophobes piss me off in general but especially in a state where we are working our butts off just to get civil unions.

  72. but it’d be nice to see another AA from a seat that isnt even close to a majority.  What makes it better than my new home in MN-5 with Ellison is that is my districtis D235 while the other is a much more modest D6.

    He’s progressive, even has a page for LGBT people on his website, Im down.  Go Dan Seals!

  73. I really don’t think Dillard will pull it out. btw, although it’s true that Dillard’s praise of Obama went into Obama ads, the first thing you see on Dillard’s website is a quote by Jim Durkin saying “No one worked harder for John McCain than Kirk Dillard.”

  74. and Dold has shown he is not a pushover. I was for Coulson in Republican primary, who almost perfectly mirrors my views, but Dold, albeit considerably more conservative, will have Kirk home-district help, and Seals doesn’t impresses me too much after his 2 losses to Kirk in very good Democratic years. This year will be much more difficult

  75. (at least on Republican side) in Gubernatorial election. IL-8 – yes, IL-10 – may be (IMHO Hamos would be stronger then Seals, but this is compensated by Coulson being much stronger general election candidate then Dold), IL-11 – no real change, winner was predictable here, IL-14 – may be

  76. I mean I know he criticized Coulson on fiscal issues, but I wonder where he stands on the culture wars. If he is pro-gun, pro-life, and anti-gay he stands zero chance, but if he is more moderate he definitely could especially with his ability to self fund. Also Kirk on the Senate ticket could probably help him.

  77. now see….I’m kinda hoping Dillard pulls it out… the teabaggers the perfect excuse 2 run for each seat and Scozzafava both Republican candidates

  78. damn, my precinct went 65% for Hoffman and 70% for Quinn…I kind of thought that Hoffman would win here but nothing like that margin.

  79. you know that Republicans would NEVER make false claims like that to tear someone down. (Neither would any of the 4 elected officials that Cohen beat)

    The article I read on Cohen said he was a pawnbroker who had $2M in the bank. Nobody in that actual movement has $2M in the bank.

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