Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/22-24, likely voters, 1/26-28/2009 in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 43 (38)
Mark Kirk (R): 36 (30)
Undecided: 19 (32)Pat Quinn (D-inc): 47
Bill Brady (R): 32
Undecided: 20Pat Quinn (D-inc): 46
Kirk Dillard (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4%)
Here are surprisingly good numbers all around for the Democrats who prevailed in this month’s primary election: incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, and state Treasurer and Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias holds a 7-point lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, while Quinn has is in the double digits against both his potential opponents. State Sen. Bill Brady has a lead of several hundred votes in the primary count, but it’ll be at least a week before we know anything official — and we should be glad about Brady, as the socially conservative, downstate Brady fares significantly worse than the moderate, suburban state Sen. Kirk Dillard.
Taking all the post-primary Senate polls together, you get a picture of a closer race (GQR gave Alexi a 4-point lead, Rasmussen gives Kirk a 6-point lead, and a Kirk internal puts him up by a not-too-plausible 12), but given that pundits were preparing the fork to stick in Giannoulias after he weathered pre-primary attacks on his relationship with his family’s bank, he looks to be in decent shape. The only other post-primary poll of IL-Gov, from Victory Research, also gave Quinn leads (with a 9-point edge over Brady), so Quinn may also have survived the worst of it, in terms of his nasty primary with Dan Hynes. (Although current fighting over tax increases, as well as possible further deterioration in the local economy, could take its toll on him.)
Seems a bit high.
is the fact that Dems are getting plastered in the collar counties.
But it is important to hold on to these seats, so the toplines are pretty good news.
It may be skewed up a bit in Illinois because of the obvious reasons, however that may be because Illinois did move to the left a bit in addition to the home-town vote for Obama. Even though Ds outnumber Rs in Illionis the excitement factor needs to move in favor of the D so it can level out.
showing a rosier picture than Giannoulias’ own internals. Colour me skeptical.
you guys beat Markos to the punch in revealing these poll results. 🙂
And yes, given the shift in the electorate, I think the 44% Dem sample may still be too high, especially when you look at other polls about voter intensity, where about 50% of Democrats are threatening to simply not show up to vote.
Based on a somewhat apples to oranges comparison of CNN exit polls
’92 senate
D-R-I: 39-34-27
’94 gov
D-R-I: 36-36-28
Which seems to validate the R2K voter composition numbers.
will soon release Indiana numbers. He said they are competitive. Suck it Rasmussen
We need a poll showing Mark Kirk leading Giannoulias by 4-6 points, and Quinn within the margin of error with both his possible challengers to rebut any indication that things could be getting better for Democrats.
I’m very happy with the Alexi G/Mark Kirk numbers. I think Kirk will come just short at the end of this race. Kirk may be perceived as a moderate, but the Democratic edge in this state will push Alexi G over the top.