By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/
A few maps of Ohio’s presidential elections are posted below, for your enjoyment. Each map comes with some brief analysis.
(Note: Because the Times stopped updating before all absentee/provisional ballots were counted, this map does not fully reflect the actual results. I have corrected the discrepancy.)
Senator Barack Obama wins Ohio by 4.6%, a solid but unimpressive victory. Mr. Obama performs poorly in traditional Democratic areas – the northeast and even Cleveland – but offsets this with unique strength in Columbus and Cincinnati. Senator McCain runs strongly in the Republican base.
More below.
President George W. Bush wins Ohio by a close but decisive margin. Senator John Kerry does extremely well – winning Columbus and Cleveland by what his campaign wants – but Mr. Bush’s exurban strength famously overwhelms this strength. Nevertheless, Ohio votes more Democratic than the nation, the first time since 1972.
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Vice President Al Gore gives up Ohio before election-day; Governor George W. Bush wins the state by 3.5%. Perhaps, campaign strategists later muse, they should not have abandoned the state.
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Incumbent Bill Clinton cruises to a comfortable victory – the best Democratic performance since LBJ (and before that, FDR). The former Arkansas governor runs strong in the industrial northeast and the Appalachian southwest, while severely undercutting Senator Bob Dole’s margins in Republican territory. It’s a classic Democratic victory.
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It’s an exact replica of the 1996 map – except this time the Democratic strongholds are a bit less blue, the Republican strongholds a bit more red, and Ross Perot is running strong. Governor Clinton wins by a mere 1.8%.
So exciting to see Hamilton County and my hometown of Cincinnati) blue in 2008, I’m very curious to see in 2012 whether this shift holds up or if we return to our red roots…
I remember your series of diaries about swing states, and this seems to be a rehashing of some of the ideas that you expressed back then, that 2008 was a unique coalition for Barack Obama in the state, not ever to be repeated. As a resident of Ohio, you could definitely feel the weight shift under your feet in 2008, and I don’t have much doubt that many of the same trends will repeat themselves in 2012 with Obama up for re-election. But what about beyond then? I wonder about the same things myself.
I’ll throw in my comments by region:
Northeast – Although Obama didn’t move the needle much here, I tend to think it was more Kerry overperforming than Obama underperforming. He still won by 26% in Mahoning County (Youngstown), 17% in Summit County (Akron), 3% in Stark County (Canton), and a whopping 38% in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). I’m not sure what more Obama could have done in the Cleveland area, 70-30 is a really strong majority. I did notice that many areas of NE Ohio that rejected Obama were the same ones that voted for Hillary in the primary. I’m guessing that if ill feelings were still present for some of these Hillary voters it won’t be a factor in ’12. We’re fine in the northeast.
Northwest – Obama did the best here of any part of the state, particularly in the rural country west and south of Toledo. The democratic ground game was superb here, and McCain made a big strategic blunder when in the debates he said he wouldn’t support farm subsidies for corn and ethanol (a HUGE part of this area’s economy). So I’m ambivalent that NW Ohio will be as good in ’12. But if the numbers stay where they are, it’s a big jump from before.
Southwest – Obama really did well in Cincinnati, and yes, the minority turnout there was the primary reason. It’s unlikely that a white democrat would get such a surge, so out of all regions of the state, I do worry about SW Ohio and the Cincy area. Watch out for Dayton too, it seems like the needle barely budged there in 2008 and it’s not quite as reliably democratic as it used to be.
Southeast – This region is trending hard to the right, but relative to the other regions of the state hardly anybody lives here, so I’m not too worried about it.
Central – Without a doubt, I think that the emergence of Columbus as a major liberal bastion is the biggest development taking place in Ohio. For so long, Columbus was a center of independence, and it was a swing city. Now, it’s on a course that could someday take it into the same stratosphere as Cleveland. Look at Franklin County, 3% win for Gore, 9% win for Kerry, 20% win for Obama. And the transition, unlike in Cincinnati, wasn’t totally on the shoulders of minorities. White voters in the Columbus area, especially the well-educated, are really turning hard in the democratic direction. If this continues, this nullifies the southeast’s turn to the right and protects against any conservative gains in the northwest, northeast, and southwest. Columbus is here to stay.