Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, primary voters):
Artur Davis (D): 38
Ron Sparks (D): 28
Sam Franklin Thomas (D): 9
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.9%)Bradley Byrne (R): 27
Roy Moore (R): 23
Robert Bently (R): 10
Kay Ivey (R): 10
Tim James (R): 9
Bill Johnson (R): 1
James Potts (R): 0
Charles Taylor (R): 0
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.7%)
Interestingly, not all is rosy for ArturD2 in the Democratic primary: among primary voters, Davis’ favorable rating is 28-34 compared to 27-17 for Sparks. If Sparks can exploit it, Davis may have opened up a big vulnerability with his vote against healthcare reform: 80% of primary voters surveyed by PPP support the recent bill passed by Congress (compared to 14% opposed). Davis may have gambled that Sparks was incapable of riding the issue to a primary win in favor of keeping a more conservative profile for the general election, but the opportunity certainly is there for Sparks to exploit.
Meanwhile, Roy “The Ten Commandments” Moore may be the most well-known and well-liked among Republican primary voters, but he’s not attracting the most support:
The fact that Moore is the most well known and liked of the GOP candidates but still trails is a sign that many voters like him but don’t necessarily think Governor is the position he’s best suited for.
In a field sliced and diced as widely as this one, though, you never know what may happen.
UPDATE: Hah! Check out PPP’s hilarious response to accusations from the Tim James campaign that PPP was cooking their books:
James put out a press release attacking our Alabama primary poll today because it showed Barack Obama with an 84% approval rating when he only got 40% of the vote in the state in 2008. That would be a valid criticism…except for the fact that the 84% approval rating for Obama was with Democratic primary voters! Reading comprehension is evidently not one of the stronger suits of the James campaign. Nor is making sure it has its facts straight before putting out a press release.
I happen to think Sparks is probably the stronger candidate for the general. At best, I see Davis performing Ford/Corker numbers. MAX. At worst, he could probably lag below 40% with depressed Dem enthusiasm and the GOP not buying his conservative act.
is he a liberal running as a moderate conservative b/c he wants to run nationwide, or is he genuinely moderate conservative? If he’s actually liberal, why not stay in the house and run for the speakership a few terms down the line?
we see any general numbers anytime soon. I can’t remember seeing any yet.
I saw this video on another blog of Sparks who is apparently against healthcare reform. I think he says one thing to one audience and another thing to another audience. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
Whether or not he meets the residency requirements, don’t those numbers seem a little high?
Since the other guy is probably a troll.
I used to like Sparks a lot, and I certainly have no love for Blue Dogs, especially those in deep blue districts. But my sense is that Sparks has been gaffing all the way to the finish line. A white statewide officeholder ought to be able to outperform a black inner-city Congressman in Alabama, no matter how sharp a politician Davis is; the fact that Sparks isn’t beating Davis is a sign that Sparks’ campaign is in serious trouble. I do agree that the poll shows that Sparks still has a shot, but I’m frankly amazed he’s still hanging in there.
I don’t like Davis, but the guy knows how to run a campaign in a deep red state. With Davis we have a shot at winning depending on who the Republican opponent is (either Moore or Ivey could give Davis an opening). With Sparks, my sense is that he has no idea how to win that seat even if it were handed to him on a platter.