Predictions Thread

Hope your Sorta-Super Tuesday is going better than Blanche Lincoln‘s: she was turned away from her standard casting-a-ballot-at-her-home-polling-place photo-op because she’d requested an absentee ballot at her Virginia home. She hadn’t filled out the absentee ballot, so she was left to fill out a provisional ballot instead.

So, what do you think is going to happen today? Can Joe Sestak preserve his last-minute surge against Arlen Specter, or can the Pennsylvania Democratic machine turn out the votes to save Specter? Can Blanche Lincoln clear the 50% bar to avoid a runoff, or will she have to go mano-a-mano against Bill Halter again? Does Jack Conway have enough last-minute momentum to win by a nose against Dan Mongiardo? What’s going to happen in the special election in PA-12, where polls show a dead heat? Let us know in the comments! No babka at stake today… just fighting for honor!

On top of all that, there’s the Kentucky GOP primary, gubernatorial primaries in Oregon and Pennsylvania, and a dump-truck load of primaries in House races everywhere. Check out our epic-length election preview to get your bearings on all these races.

UPDATE (James): Also, if you’ve got any results links for any of the races tonight, please post ’em in the comments! Thanks!

54 thoughts on “Predictions Thread”

  1. Shame. Anyway, long night methinks.

    Lincoln 50-45-5

    Sestak 51-49

    Mongiardo 51-49

    Burns 51-49

  2. AR-SEN

    Lincoln 46%

    Halter 45%

    Morrison 9%


    Mongiardo 45%

    Conway 55%


    Specter 48%

    Sestak 52%


    Burns 49%

    Critz 50%

  3. AR-Sen (D) –

    Lincoln – 53%

    Halter – 40%

    Others – 7%

    PA-Sen (D) –

    Sestak – 51%

    Specter – 48%


    Pike – 56%

    Trivedi – 43%


    Critz – 50%

    Burns – 49%

    KY-Sen (R)

    Paul – 58%

    Grayson – 40%

    KY-Sen (D)

    Mongiardo – 51%

    Conway – 47%


    Djou – 37%

    Hanabusa – 32%

    Case – 25%

    Others – 6%

  4. Lincoln 49%

    Halter 41%

    Mongiardo 53%

    Conway 47%

    Sestak 52%

    Specter 48%

    Critz 53%

    Burns 47%

    Paul 58%

    Grayson 42%

    Boozman 51%

    Others 49%

    Kitzhauber 60%

    Bradbury 40%

    Dudley 45%

    Allen 32%


  5. We should start a pro-Babka writers strike on SSP.

    Lincoln 49-45-6

    Sestak 53-47

    Mongiardo 54-46

    Burns 51-49

    Not at all how I’d like it to turn out. But that’s what I’ll go with.

  6. AR-Sen:

    Lincoln 51

    Halter  44

    Boozman 55



    Conway    50

    Modogorno 48


    Paul      58

    Grayson   41


    Critz     50

    Burns     49


    Sestak    52

    Specter   46



    Kitzhaber 60

    Bradbury  30


    Alley  40

    Dudley 30

  7. but here goes….

    Sestak: 53%

    Specter: 47%

    The rain in Philly and the incumbent rule combine to give Sestak a slightly larger than expected victory.

    Onorato: 48%

    Williams: 19%

    Hoeffel: 19%

    Wagner: 14%

    Onorato wins by a wide margin, winning nearly 50 percent of the vote. The rest is split among the other candidates.

    Critz: 51%

    Burns: 49%

    This one’s gonna come down to the wire, but I think the surge in Dem turnout for the Senate primary will drag Critz over the line.

    Conway: 49%

    Mongiardo: 48%

    Others: 3%

    Conway’s late surge enables him to narrowly beat Mongiardo with less than 50 percent of the vote

    Paul: 57%

    Grayson: 40%

    Others: 3%

    No surprises here. Rand Paul wins by a wide margin

    Lincoln: 48%

    Halter: 44%

    Morrison: 8%

    Lincoln is forced into a runoff against Halter

    Boozman: 49%

    Baker: 19%

    Holt: 14%

    Others: 18%

    Boozman is narrowly forced into a runoff against Baker, who I think will benefit in the primary by not being from NW Arkansas.

  8. Very tough races to call.

    Lincoln    49%

    Halter     42%

    Nutjob      9%

    Sestak     52%

    Specter    48%

    Critz      51%

    Burns      49%

    Mongiardo  53%

    Conway     47%

    Pike to win in PA-6.  Causey in AR-1.  And Wills in AR-2.

  9. PA Special: Critz 51, Burns 49

    PA-Sen(D): Sestak 52, Specter 48

    AR-Sen(D): Lincoln 50, Halter 46

    AR-Sen(R): Boozman 54, Baker 24, Holt 14

    KY-Sen(D): Conway 48, Mongiardo 46

    KY-Sen(R): Paul 59, Grayson 37

  10. Good thing I have the hope.

    I think Sestak wins Conway goes to a recount and eeks it out, and Halter keeps blanche under 50% forcing a runoff.


    Sestak 52%

    Specter 48%

    Critz wins by 51 to 49


    Conway 49%

    Mongiardo 49%


    Halter 45%

    Blanche 49%

  11.    Here goes

       PA-Sen: I have a feeling this won’t be close.

               Sestak: 56%

               Spector: 44%

       AR-Sen: It looks like Halter’s momentium has slowed and Democrats in Arkansas tend to be more conservative. So I’m tempted to say Lincoln will get over 50%. But I don’t think I should underestimate the anti-establishment feeling out there so.

                    Lincoln: 48%

                    Halter: 43%


         KY-Sen: It seems like Conway has been surging. But again you do have a somewhat more conservative Democratic electorate. So I’m going to say

                   Monigrado: 52%

                   Conway:    48%

            PA-12 special election: It seemed like a month ago this was a goner for Democrats. However it seems that as of late it’s moved back into toss-up category. And Critz does have a contested primary to help get him over the finish line. But I think that Burns will pull it off (I hope I’m wrong here).



  12. NOTE: The PA races are from what I’ve seen in both the polls and from talking to people on the ground. The others? Optimistic.


    Specter: 50%

    Sestak: 49%

    (This causes Republicans to jump for joy, but Specter ends up rebounding and wins in the Fall)


    Critz: 48%

    Burns: 46%

    (In fact, Burns may not even win his primary. People are starting to turn on him down there)


    Lincoln: 49%

    Halter: 40%

    (JUST enough so Lincoln has to go into a Run-Off. Lincoln wins the run-off anyway)

    AR-Sen (R):

    Boozeman: 49%

    (Too many candidates in the race. Even Boozeman thinks he’s going into a run-off)

    KY-Sen (D):

    Conway: 49.8%

    Mongiardo: 49.2%

    (We’re going to be waiting to really know the results of this one)

    KY-Sen (R):

    Paul: 54%

    Grayson: 46%

    (This is one of two seats the Dems will pick up)


    Hanabusa: 37%

    Djou: 36%

    Case: 20%

    (Probably highly optimistic, but I don’t see Case picking up a whole lot of support anymore. I don’t know anyone who’s done less for his political career. I think Hanabusa picks up enough support right at the end, Djou is left scratching his head)

    Side note on the HI-01 race. Is there also a primary for the election in November? Are Case and Hanabusa battling for that, too?


    Onorato: 35%

    Hoeffel: 18%

    Wagner: 13%

    Williams: 9%

    (In what I think is the tragedy of Pennsylvania, Onorato, who I personally think is the second-weakest of the candidates (next to Williams) goes into the general election against a well funded Corbett.)

  13. Kentucky Dems

    Conway: 53%

    Mongiardo: 47%

    Kentucky Reps

    Paul: 58%

    Grayson: 42% (cue McConnell crying :D)

    Pennsylvania Senate

    Sestak: 51%

    Specter: 49%

    PA-12 (Special)

    Critz: 50.5%

    Burns: 49.5%

    Arkansas Dems

    Lincoln 47%

    Halter 42%

    Morrison: 11% (run-off)

    Arkansas Reps

    Boozman: 42%

    Baker: 24%

    Hendren: 19%

    Holt: 15% (run-off between Boozman and Baker)

  14. Sestak 52%, Specter 47%

    Lincoln 49%, Halter 46%

    Boozman 53%, rest 47%

    Conway 51%, Mongiardo 49%

    Paul 59%, Grayson 40%

    Critz 50%, Burns 49%

    Should be an interesting night.

  15. PA Sen

    Sestak 53 Specter 46

    PA 12

    Critz 50.1 Burns 49.9

    KY Sen  D

    Mongiardo  48, Conway  45  Others 7

    KY Sen R

    Paul 55, Grayson 40  Others 5

    AR Sen D

    Lincoln 49 Halter 44, Others 7

    AR Sen R

    Boozman 53, Others 47  

  16. AK-Sen:

    Lincoln 48

    Halter 45


    Sestak 51

    Specter 47


    Conway 50

    Mongiardo 48


    Critz 51

    Burns 49  

  17. AR-Sen:

    D: Lincoln 49, Halter 43, Morrison 8.  

    R: Boozman 47, Baker 24, Holt 21, Others 8

    HI-01: Djou 43, Hanabusa 39, Case 18

    Wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers for Djou and Hanabusa are reversed. Either way, I predict that the DCCC’s mainland meddling in favor of a widely disliked conservative white guy will blow up in their faces here.


    D: Mongiardo 52, Conway 48. (Please tell me it’s the other way around, as Mongiardo will cost us the seat. Again.)

    R: Paul 72, Grayson 28, Cornyn 0. (HA-ha!)


    D: Kitzhaber 57, Bradbury 41, Other 2.  

    R: Alley 51, Dudley 46, Other 3.  


    Bruun 50, Thompson 47, Other 3

    (Others here are write-ins. Speaking from personal experience as a former OR resident, vote-by-mail creates more write-ins than normal because people filling out a ballot at home are more relaxed than standing in line in a high school gym.)

    PA-Sen: Sestak 51, Specter 49.

    PA-04: Don’t care about the numbers, but Buchanan is toast. A fitting end to a horrible woman’s political career. (Unfortunately, in a year as anti-incumbent as this one, Rothfus is just the sort of nut who can knock off Altmire. I’d be crying harder if Altmire weren’t one of the most obnoxious Blue Dogs in the chamber.)

    PA-06: Pike 57 Trivedi 41. And Gerlach survives AGAIN.

    PA-11: O’Brien 54, Kanjorski 46. (After the upset in WV-01, Kanjorski’s loss would be unprecedented, but it seems like this is the rare year where the most entrenched incumbents lose first – the crustier the better.)

    PA-12: General: Critz 52, Burns 48.

          R Primary: Critz 51, Russell 49.

    PA-17: Holden 63, Dow-Ford 37. Will be similar to the results in NC-08 and NC-11 – closer than it should be because of HCR, but not really all that close.

    PA-19: Platts 57, Smeltzer 43.  

  18. AR-Sen D- Goes to the runnoff

    Lincoln 46%

    Halter 43%

    Morrison 10%

    AR-Sen R No runnoff

    Boozeman 55%

    Others 45%

    KY-Sen Battle of the why did we nominate this guy

    Mongiardo 52%

    Conway 47%

    Paul 56%

    Grayson 42%

    PA- Sen Specter wins after long recount!

    Specer 50%

    Sestak 50%


    Burns 52%

    Critz 47%

    OR Gov-

    Dudley finally hits a free throw and wins GOP primary


    Djou 45%

    Case 28%

    Hanabusa 25%

    CT-Sen Blumenthal has a press conference with his wife Morgan Fairchild by his side and tries to end the controvery by showing us the Silver Star and Purple Heart he bought on e-bay.

  19. AR-Sen:

    Blanche Lincoln – 50%

    Bill Halter – 42%

    D.C. Morrison – 8%

    KY-Sen (D):

    Dan Mongiardo – 50%

    Jack Conway – 46%

    KY-Sen (R):

    Rand Paul – 56%

    Trey Grayson – 42%


    Arlen Specter – 51%

    Joe Sestak – 49%


    Tim Burns – 52%

    Mark Critz – 48%

  20. AR-Sen

    Lincoln 55

    Halter 38


    Sestek 52

    Spencer 48


    Burns 53

    Critz 47

    KY-sen (R)

    Paul 60

    Grayson 39

    KY-sen (D)

    Mongiardo 52

    Conway 47

  21. But I’m going to predict that Sestak wins, Lincoln leads but faces a runoff, Mongiardo wins, and Burns wins. I hope I’m wrong about some of these.

  22. I acknowledge a Republican pickup here but want to make sure its only a six month pickup. I want to see how Djou final percentage looks. If he is at the high thirties or just at 40 then I am confident of the six months and done. If he gets up to the mid to high forties then with incumbency, we may be in for a bad time regaining the seat. I also want to see which Democrat wins the primary to mano a mano Djou. I am hoping it is not Case but have a feeling it may just be.  

  23. But the DCCC is VERY bullish about PA-12… almost to the point of bragging.  I hope they don’t jinx it.

  24. Djou with around 40% while those other two saps (Democrats) split it 25% each. But I’m just wondering, when Djou wins, is this seat automatically going to go back to Democrats come November? I mean, that’s what you’ve been saying about Joseph Cao for two years now.

  25. Lincoln 48

    Halter 43

    Morrison 9

    Boozman 47

    Holt 26

    Baker 16

    Hendren 6

    Other 5

    Djou 39

    Case 35

    Hanabusa 26

    Conway 45.5

    Mongiardo 44.5

    Other 10

    Paul 48

    Conway 44

    Other 8

    Specter 53

    Sestak 47

    Onorato 38

    Wagner 24

    Williams 23

    Hoeffel 15

    Critz (D) 51

    Burns (R) 49


    Why change now?












    Boozman- 54%

    Holt- 20%




    Grayson- 39%


    Conway- 46%

    Mongiardo- 42%


    Kitzhaber- 63%


    Dudley- 45%

    Alley- 32%




  27. PA-Sen–Ironically, it’s Sestak who finishes the job Pat Toomey started 6 years ago.

    Sestak 53

    Specter 47

    AR-Sen–Halter never quite got it off the ground. And Boozman just isn’t that good a candidate

    Lincoln 51

    Halter 44

    Morrison 5

    Boozman 46

    Holt 26

    Others 28

    KY-Sen–They love their close elections in the Bluegrass state

    Mongiardo 49.5

    Conway 40.0

    Paul 54

    Grayson 44

    PA-12–Pure tossup

    Burns 50.5

    Critz 49.5

    HI-01–Hanabusa finishes second, Case’s career over

    Djou 42

    Hanabusa 34

    Case 21

  28. KY-Sen R

    Rand Paul 59%

    Trey Grayson 41%

    KY- Sen D

    Conway 51%

    Mongi. 49%

    Ark-Sen D

    Lincoln 50%

    Halter 40%

    Others 10%

    Ark-Sen R

    Boozman 51%

    Others 49%

    PA-Sen D

    Sestak 52%

    Specter 48%

    PA-12 (tough one)

    Critz 48

    Burns 52

    (hope I’m wrong on that one)  

  29. AR-SEN

    Lincoln 51%

    Halter 43%

    Morrison 6%


    Mongiardo 48%

    Conway 52%


    Specter 46%

    Sestak 54%

    I will note that Specter seemed on his game on CNBC today (too little, too late) – esepecially in saying that he would campaign for Sestak if Sestak won  – even when Sestak claimed he wouldn’t campaign for Specter – and making it clear that this was about beating Toomey.


    Burns 48%

    Critz 49%

    Paul kills Greyson

  30. I think the bright spots will be in Pennsylvania with Sestak and Critz victory. Sadly I predict Lincoln winning well above the 50 she needs and very sadly Dr. Dan pulling out a squeaker over Conway.  

    Sestak- 51%


    Lincoln- 55%


    Dude from the right (!) of Lincoln- 5%

    Dr. Dan-47%

    Conway- 45%

    Others-  8%

    Critz- 52%

    Burns- 48%


    The ex Treasurer candidate beats the washed up bball playa. The ex Governor beats the ex SoS.

    Louisville Mayor

    Fischer pulling a narrow victory over King. Gosh I hope I’m right. See my diary for further info on this race if interested.

  31. Sestak 52

    Specter 48

    Lincoln 49

    Halter 43

    Capt. Cuckoo Bananas 8

    Paul 61

    Grayson 39

    Mongiardo 53

    Conway 47

    Burns 53

    Critz 47

    Djou, Kitzhaber, Onarato, Buchana, Critz (primary), Burns (primary) all pull it out

  32. Paul 62%

    Grayson 34%

    Conway 53%

    Mongiardo 44%

    Lincoln 49%

    Halter 43%

    Specter 52%

    Sestak 48%

    Critz 54%

    Burns 46% (I think Burns will win the GOP primary)

    Onorato 43% (Winner)

    Everyone else 57%

    Corbett (a lot)

    Everyone else (a little)

  33. Sometime in mid-September.  

    Assuming Djou wins, my dream scenario would be for Honolulu Mayor Hannemann to get into the primary instead of running for Governor, which he is expected to do but still has not officially launched AFAIK.  He would destroy Djou and ensure that neither Tweedle Dumb nor Tweedle Dumber gets on the ballot for the Dems.

  34. But if I were a betting man, I would put my money on Sestak winning, I’m really surprised you think Snarlin Arlen will win.

  35. the only one who thinks Specter will win at this point, but he’s been in this position before. Despite the rain, turnout has been high. I’m not going to sit here and say with any certainty that Specter is going to win…just a hunch.  

  36. Blanche Lincoln – 48%

    Bill Halter – 43%

    D.C. Morrison – 9%

    KY-Sen (D):

    Dan Mongiardo -49%

    Jack Conway – 51%

    KY-Sen (R):

    Rand Paul – 55%

    Trey Grayson – 45%


    Arlen Specter – 46%

    Joe Sestak – 54%


    Tim Burns – 48%

    Mark Critz – 52%

  37. Djou gets to only fill out Abercrombie’s unexpired term (of a few months).  New Orleans was stuck with Cao for two years, as you say.  Saiki notwithstanding, which I think happened in a more moderate Hawaii, I really think Djou falls in November in a one-on-one.

  38. You’re acting like Cao has defied the odds by staying in office.  He has never stood for re-election.  When he does in November he’ll be gone.  I’m less certain about Djou, but I suspect he will be too, as long as Dems find a decent candidate not named Hanabusa or Case.

    And who is this “you” who has been suggesting Cao would be voted out of office when there has been no election?  Sounds like a real dumbass… I’ve never heard anyone on this site suggest that Cao would be leaving office any time prior to January 2011.

  39. From the wapo link:

    ยท Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report: “Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters’ attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP’s advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.

  40. Though I think usually we can change until the polls close.  I remember last year the day before the New Jersey Gov election I predicted a narrow Corzine win.  On election day I heard reports of high turnout in McCain areas and almost changed, but decided to go with my first choice.  Trying the opposite tonight…

  41. Grayson gets his butt handed to him and Boozman narrowly avoids a runoff. Locally I would say the city councilman wins fine.

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