AR, CA, IA, ME & NV Results Thread

4:00am: Props 16 and 17 look like they’ll fail tonight, 51.8% No on 16 and 50.7% No on 17. If they follow the trajectory they’ve been taking over the course of the night, expect those numbers to go up. Harmer’s still nursing his 10 point lead over Goehring in CA-11. After nine hours, SSP is signing off!

3:51am: Fortunately for Gary Miller, California’s not a runoff state! He’s now just under 50%! Both props continue to slip now at over 2/3rd reporting; our punch cards say 51.7% No on 16, 50.6% No on 17.

3:45am: Have we crossed the Rubicon? Prop 16 looking headed towards failure with 51.4% opposed. No’s running ahead of yes by 107,000 right now, which in light of what we’re estimating to be 600,000 or so votes left isn’t trivial to overcome. Prop 17 has tipped the balance and is now projected to fail by 0.2%, but No’s 25,000 lead is much more tenuous.

3:30am: No love for Prop 15 (public financing of SoS campaigns); the AP’s finally called ‘No’ with 57%.

3:25am: Looking at Props 16 and 17 now with 57% reporting, both Props’ support continue to weaken. Prop 16 is now on track for 51.2% opposed, and Prop 17 passing by 0.5%. There are a few Prop 16 strongholds left, notably, San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties, but there are plenty of smaller NorCal counties there to offset – half of Santa Clara, Yolo, and Alameda; three-fourths of Santa Cruz, and a third of Sonoma. Even Placer’s contributing to the No-on-16 effort,  where it’s failing 53-47 right now.

3:10am: It’s now past midnight Pacific Time, and the big action is left in Props 16 and 17. (Prop 15 hasn’t been called yet, but looks well on target for failure). Prop 16’s fate has changed quite a bit since an hour and a half ago, now looking on track for failure with 50.9% against. What’s changed? More anti-Prop 16 areas in Southern California are reporting: LA County, which had been supporting Prop 16 with 56%, is now down to 52% in support; Santa Barbara which was in support is now against. Prop 17 is doing better, looking on track for passage with about 50.4%.

3:00am: Is Busby the new Sodrel? Busby declared the winner in CA-50, setting up Busby v. Bilbray round 3.

2:56am: In an odd show of moderation by the California GOP, appointed incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado gets the nod for re-election over conservative challenger State Senator Sam Aanestad.

2:53am: CA-36 (D): Jane Harman has fended off Marcy Winograd for the second time with about 61% of the vote.

2:47am: Gary Miller’s 53% is good enough for the AP to declare him the winner. It’s better than Bob “28%” Inglis, but still weak.

2:45am: CA-36 (D) is looking similar to 2006 at 62-38 for Harman. Laura Richardson was also declared the winner next door in CA-37 with a surprisingly weak 65%.

2:41am: CA-19 (R) called for Denham. Marsden still trailing Goodwin 53-47 on the (D) side.

2:39am: Few more precincts rolled through in CA-42, Gary Miller is now to 53%, in one of tonight’s worst incumbent showings.

2:37am: Kamala Harris gets the Dem nod for Attorney General; matchup will be SF DA Harris vs. LA DA Cooley.

2:32am: Mary Mary quite contrary, how does your garden grow? More quickly now, it seems, enough that the AP has called the Dem Lt. Gov nod for Gavin Newsom and the GOP Att. Gen nod for Steve Cooley.

2:30am: The statewide races aren’t the only thing seemingly standing still. CA-11 is still 35-28 for Harmer, while CA-19 has moved a bit to 37-30 Denham over Patterson, with the odious Dick Pombo back at 20. Gary Miller continues to underwhelm in CA-42 at 54%. Also in a bit of a surprise, California Democratic Party-endorsed candidate Les Marsden is down 47-53 to Some Dude Loraine Goodwin. The only major movement is on the Prop 16 side, which is now slated to fail narrowly with 50.12% against.

2:10am: The sky is still blue, as well, it seems! 36% in now, same holding pattern: 57-31 Newsom for LG (D), 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-17 Harris for AG (D), and 49-32 Cooley for AG (R). Here at SSP Labs, we are now taking bets over whether Kamala Harris will clear the one-third mark. (Signs pointing to no and a finish around 32%). Prop 16 is now looking at a 50.4% passage.

1:58am: Things are looking a little comfier for David Harmer in CA-11, much to the NRCC’s pleasure, I’m sure. He’s at 36, with Brad Goehring at 27. Amador’s at 19 and Emken at 18.

1:55am: Watching California’s been like watching grass grow, but bring on the Miracle Gro! A cool 1,000 precincts just rolled in, bringing us to 29% reporting. But, alas, grass is still green, 58-30 Newsom for LG (D); 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-18 Harris for AG (D); and 50-31 Cooley for AG (R). Prop 16 still on track to pass with 51.8%.

1:47am: Prop 16’s back down narrowly in California by less than 2,000 votes. For what was assumed to be a Democrat-Republican issue, this is seriously breaking the usual patterns: the “new Orange County” of Placer County and conservative Kern County (Bakersfield) are voting this down, while normally Democratic SoCal areas like LA and Imperial County are voting yes. Some good old back-of-the-envelope math says passage is likely with 51.8%.

1:42am: Here’s an odd tidbit I missed: the SC-03 Republican runoff is going to be between state Rep. Jeff Duncan (as expected) and businessman Richard Cash (totally unexpected, with state Rep. Rex Rice finishing 3rd), but Cash actually wound up pulling ahead at the end. It was 25 Cash, 23 Duncan, 19 Rice, and 19 for John Grimaud (who’d planned to challenge Joe Wilson in the 2nd, but decided at the last minute that the 3rd would be better).

1:40am: Two special elections in CA today. One for Assembly District 43 (Glendale, Burbank) to replace now-LA City Councilman Paul Krekorian (D), where after 6 precincts, the Dem is up 54-46. AD-43 went for Obama 70-28. The other’s in Senate District 37 to replace now-Riverside Co. Supervisor John Benoit (R). Dems didn’t expect to have a shot, but the Dem nominee’s losing 57-32 in an SD that gave Obama 50.3%. The more exciting special election – to replace now Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado is in two weeks.

1:30am: Still a holding pattern in the four big CA statewide races left, though we’re at 22% reporting now. Newsom still up on Hahn 57-30 for Dem Lt. Gov; Maldonado up 47-28 though Aanestad’s doing well in Orange County. Dem AG remains 33-18-15-12, Harris-Kelly-Torrico-Lieu, and Rep AG is also still at 50-31-19 Cooley/Eastman/Harman. Prop 16 is leading narrowly now and could be extrapolated to it passing 52-48.

1:20am: Things are still a little slow in CA-42; with 6% reporting, Gary Miller’s at 55%, which I think is the 2nd most underwhelming House incumbent performance tonight (ahead of only Bob Inglis). Phil Liberatore is at 32.

1:10am: The last outstanding race in Arkansas looks like it’s been put to bed. In the R primary runoff in AR-03, the AP has called it for Steve Womack, 52-48, over Cecile Bledsoe. Another endorsement fail for Sarah Palin. At least Terry Branstad’s keeping her percentage up.

1:00am: In CA-47, it looks the Vietnamese vote splitting problem never materialized. Van Tran leads the GOP primary at 52, with Kathy Smith at 29 and Tan Nguyen at 19.

12:57am: The Cal SoS seems to be further along than the AP (up to 15% in), and they have a whole different take on CA-11. They have Harmer at 34, not that far ahead of Goehring at 30, with Amador at 18 and Emken at 17.

12:55am: Geez, add even another one to the list. In CA-41, Jerry Lewis (rounding out the trio of Inland Empire GOPers under ethical clouds for weird real estate deals) leads his opposition 66-34.

12:52am: In CA-44, Ken Calvert also looks poised to join the very large club of incumbents not breaking 70% in their primaries. He leads his opposition 69-31. Up in CA-11, establishment pick David Harmer has gained more ground; he’s at 48, with 21 for Emken, 20 for Amador, and 10 for Goehring. And in CA-19, establishment guy Jeff Denham also leads 41, with Patterson at 25 and Pombo at 20, with about 40% reporting.

12:46am: The four Lt. Gov and Attorney General races are still uncalled. For LG (D), Newsom’s up 57-31 on Hahn winning plenty of SoCal locales like San Diego. In the Republican primary, Maldonado’s keeping his edge over Sam Aanestad, who’s even losing stalwart conservative areas like Placer County. For Atty Gen (D), Kamala Harris is keeping a narrow 32-18 lead over Chris Kelly; Torrico in 3rd at 15 and Lieu in 4th at 12. Not enough cat fud in GOP primary; moderate Steve Cooley still up 50-31 on Eastman with Tom Harman back at 19.

12:44am: Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass wins her primary in CA-33 with 85%, will likely be the next congresswoman from this D+35 district.

12:36am: Sue Lowden can now set up that bartering post she’s always wanted; NV-Sen called for Angle by the AP.

12:33am: No, rly. AP calls the Republican SoS primary for Damon Dunn. Orly Taitz can go back to filing groundless lawsuits as a private citizen. In between pulling teeth.

12:32am: AP has called Proposition 14 (top two primary system) as a ‘yes.’ Take that, third parties!

12:29am: Here’s one GOP moderate who survived a teabagger challenge with little trouble. Mary Bono Mack leads Clayton Thibodeau 74-26 with more than half in, in CA-45. In CA-42, only about 1% is in, but it points to Gary Miller — who we’d thought was most vulnerable to his teabagging opponent, seeing as how he (Liberatore) actually had some money — surviving, albeit unimpressively. Miller leads 58-28.

12:28am: In CA-50, it looks like it’ll be Francine Busby 3.0. With more than 10% in, she’s leading Tracy Emblem 64-36.

12:25am: Switching back to the East coast, there’s one New Jersey race still uncalled. In the GOP primary in NJ-06, 99.6% are in, and Little leads Gooch (the moneybags lady who was On the Radar) by about 100 votes.

12:22am: Joe Heck easily dispensed with the teabag remnants he faced in the GOP primary in NV-03, winning with 70%. There is, however, a barnburner between two guys I don’t know in the Dem primary in NV-02, for the booby prize of going up against Dean Heller: K. McKenna and N. Price are both at 45.

12:19am: Since we last looked, Sharron Angle really turned on the afterburners. Now she’s at 38, with Sue Lowden at 29 and Tark at 22 (oh, and carpetbagging investment banker John Chachas at 4). We’re closing on on half reporting. Angle has pulled into the lead (36-33) in Clark County, where over half the votes are.

12:16am: Bass masters her opposition. Karen Bass, former state Speaker, is at a whopping 85% against minor opposition to succeed Diane Watson in CA-33.

12:14am: In CA-26, David Dreier’s at 78% against minor opposition, much better than a lot of other insider Reps tonight. If anyone knows how to survive a teabagging, it’s him.

12:10am: AP calls CA-Sen for Carly Fiorina. 54 for her, to 26 for Campbell for 17 for DeVore. Campbell heads back to the pasture to resume frightening sheep.

12:09am: Only 2% in in CA-11, but David Harmer is breaking away. He’s at 39, with Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken both at 24, and liberal huntin’ vintner Brad Goehring at 12.

12:07am: Here’s one more totally unexpected teabagging underway in dark red CA-02. With 10% in, Wally Herger (R) is at only 62% against Some Dude.

12:05am: Holy crap! CA-Sen (D) has been called for Barbara Boxer. The ghost of Paul Wellstone has struck down Mickey Kaus.

12:02am: Here’s a race that was on nobody’s radar screen: Laura Richardson (D in a safe blue district, but associated with foreclosures and a general sense of being out-to-lunch), is at only 65%, although against scattered opposition.

12:01am: Less than 5% reporting, but CA-36 (D) may turn out to be something of a non-event; Jane Harman leads Marcy Winograd 65-35.

12:00am: Onto the Cali House races. In CA-19 (R), with about 23% reporting, Jeff Denham leads Jim Patterson and Richard Pombo 44-23-20. Looks like that poll surge for Patterson didn’t pan out.

11:58pm: Back to South Carolina for a minute, where it’s been confirmed that in SC-01, we’re headed to a GOP runoff between CfG protege Tim Scott and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond. Sorry, “Tumpy.”

11:55pm: Initiatives! Prop 14 (top two primary) passing, 60-40. Peace & Freedom Party heads for dustbin of history. Prop 15 (public financing of elections) failing, 43-57. Prop 16 (electric company tyranny) passing, 53-47. And Prop 17 (auto insurance) also passing 55-45.

11:53pm: AP calls CA-Gov (R) for Meg Whitman. $80-odd million and counting; how much will she spend by November?

11:50pm: For LG, it’s Newsom 52, Hahn 35, and for the GOP, it’s Maldonado 48, Aanestad 28. For AG, Harris leads at 28, with Kelly at 19, Torrico at 15, Lieu at 14, Delgadillo way back at 8. And among GOPer AGers, Cooley 52, Eastman 30.

11:48pm: And in the Senate, Carly Fiorina is leading Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore 58-23-17. Barbara Boxer leading Mickey Kaus (does that rhyme with Mickey Mouse? never noticed that till now) 78-5.

11:46pm: Quick non-California update: AR-01 called for Chad Causey. Not much love for public hanging, even in West Memphis (home of the West Memphis 3!).

11:45pm: We’re getting close to 5% reporting in California statewide, so let’s turn our attention to the Golden State. Meg Whitman is beating Steve Poizner 64-26, outpacing the polls a bit. Y’know, Jerry Brown is too, actually; he leads Richard Aguirre 83-4.

11:40pm: This may turn out to be the weirdest story of the night, about Alvin Greene, the 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and who now happens to be the Dem nominee for Senate in South Carolina (instead of expected candidate Vic Rawl, a Charleston Co. Commissioner). Somehow he came across $10K to file, and has seemed to have run a phantom campaign ever since then. How did he get here? We’ll no doubt hear more in coming days.

11:35pm: And now the news that’ll have everyone saying “Who?” AP calls ME-Gov (D) for Libby Mitchell. She’ll face Paul LePage in the duel of the unknowns.

11:34pm: We’ll start with the bad news; AP calls IA-Gov (R) for Terry Branstad. But only 50-40 over Vander Plaats.

11:24pm: The night is winding down, but CA and NV are just getting cranked up.

297 thoughts on “AR, CA, IA, ME & NV Results Thread”

  1. Orly’s only got 25% of the vote in CA Sec of State Race. You can bet ACORN was at work here.

  2. Dude, I’m on my first beer and my ganja just got delivered. West Coast reprazentin’.

  3. race for California lieutenant governor:

    Gavin Newsom has 53% of the vote while Janice Hahn has 35% of the vote. Newsom right now is cleaning up statewide while Hahn is only leading in Los Angeles County (big surprise).

    Abel Maldonado is beating Aanestad 51% to 25%.  

  4. and ruling in outstate counties.  If she keeps Washoe at this percentage, she should be able to offset half of Clark with Washoe and win by a few points due to the miscellaneous counties.

    Harry Reid’s day.

  5. Krolicki was running for re-election.

    And what are 8 GOPers doing running against Berkly?

  6. You betta work biitch.

    Still not happy, but If she doesnt appear to fail too horribly, I’ll send her a few dollars.  She really sucks, but Id hate to see her go nonetheless.  Bleh.  :(  If I cant get my liberals, my girls come next.

  7. Just wanted to say Chris Nelson was not establishment candidate, Blake Curd was cause he could self-fund.  

  8. Angle is going to win. About half the voters voted early so we have well over half the votes counted, I don’t see how Lowden can catch up.

  9. I did not know she was not an American citizen by birth.  I demand to see her naturalization papers.

  10. we see some amazing results and pick up CA SD-37. When it was open in 2008, it went 55R-45D.

  11. Well with all but 2 precincts left teabagger Anna Little’s lead is down to 88 votes 50.3-49.7 over millionaire Gooch.  Gooch said she won’t concede tonight so that’s it for me here,

  12. Scientology+ prohibition > than Chickens+ wont answer civil rights act question

    Seriously though, if I was a Republican in NV I would be annoyed they didn’t nominate Tarkanian, he seems… sane. The other two are damaged goods.

  13. AD-05: Pugno is ahead with 43% while DeLuz is way back in the penultimate position with 10.5%.

    AD-30: Fran Florez is ahead 52-48. I don’t care who wins here, but I just hope we won’t have enough acrimony to tip this seat to Team Red again.

    AD-36: Jones is running away with 60%. Name rec methinks.

    I can’t wait until AD-68 comes in.

  14. seems to favor right-leaning areas (by California standards):

    Colusa 1,755

    Contra Costa 84,244

    Del Norte 3,387

    El Dorado 10,016

    Fresno 40,897

    Lake 6,151

    Los Angeles 239,769

    Madera 13,393

    Marin 27,598

    Merced 11,719

    Napa 13,536

    Placer 48,262

    Sacramento 132,800

    San Benito 4,094

    San Diego 203,338

    San Joaquin 47,794

    San Luis Obispo 30,800

    Santa Barbara 39,140

    Solano 31,427

    Stanislaus 29,085

    Tulare 13,621

    Yolo 16,513

    (all others 0)

    Total 1,049,362

  15. Kamala Harris is destroying in NorCal and about tied in SoCal. If she keeps this up she’s golden.

  16. Put up an update on Francine Busby. She is doing well. It is early, but she is still showing well.

  17. did anyone else think Bert Mizusawa was Asian? his last name is definitely Japanese. but I just looked at his website and he’s white.

  18. “If anyone knows how to survive a teabagging, it’s him.”

    The rumors have never been proven.

  19. Confession:I haven’t followed much on Angle, what are her major liabilities for the general election? Too politically extreme, not enough funds, something else?  

    As for SC-01: Tumpy, you can do magic things! (Too bad getting elected is not one of them.)

  20. Why has the AP not called it yet for Womack? He leads 52-48 with all precincts in. Is it headed for a recall or are absentee ballots still being counted?  

  21. If there’s one woman in the California delegation who knows how to survive a vigorous teabagging, it’s Ms. Mary Mack.

    Btw, your David Dreier teabagging joke is a huge win for democracy and comedy. Which is why I stole it.

  22. chastises Unions for “flushing $10 million down the toilet” in their quest to defeat Lincoln at the Battle of Arkansas.

    And what did the unions reply:

    UPDATE: AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale responds  that “labor isn’t an arm of the Democratic Party.”


  23. I know it’s a minority opinion here but I think it will be good for California. Two years from now  California Primary night should be fun here at SSP.

  24. 10% for sr and 15% for junior.  I could see harry surviving by the skin of his teeth against the loon that is angle, but rory, baring a huge turnaround/event it’s prob over.

  25. With exceptions of Angle and probably Little, good night for Republicans. OK night for me, as Nikki Haley heads to a runoff and Cecile Bledsoe likely lost, but all of my other favored candidates (except for Gooch and Tark/Lowden) won.

  26. Approximately the same number of total precincts reporting, but different ones in each.  For example, AP has 152/934 in Alameda and 0/119 in Napa; SoS has 0/934 in Alameda and 117/119 in Napa…

  27. Thank you to the gods of tomfoolery and wacky elections for giving Sharron Angle the mojo she needed to pull this one off.

    Not only did Harry Reid likely just win re-election, but we’ve probably got an early contender for most entertaining election of the year.

  28. think Senator Lincoln deserves a good pat on the back. She ran a great campaign and I hope she does the same in November. Congrats Senator!  

  29. looks like both Pan and Pugno will win in the mid-40s.

    Don’t know if Pan is pro-marriage equality (not endorsed by EQCA, which is troubling), but I hope he gives Pugno a spanking. The fact that there are more Republican votes is a shame, but I assume the Rs have a registration advantage, and plus they have more competitive statewide primaries.

  30. Not a bad night for her. Fiorina, Branstad, and Haley won. Bledsoe came a lot closer than she was expected.  

  31. In the Superintendent of Public Instruction. I know Tom Torlaksen but I don’t know any of the others.

    Who is the progressive candidate? Who is the Creationist?

  32. (actual result in parens) They had Haley 43% (49%), Barrett 23%(22%), McMaster 16% (17%), and Bauer 12% (12%). 7% undecided, most broke for Haley.  

  33. Kelly’s only doing well in San Bernardino and Riverside counties, which have really low turnout and have already mostly reported. And of course his margins are nowhere near enough to cancel out what Harris is pulling out of the Bay Area.

  34. But then I remember how obscenely huge that state is and how thankfully rarely we have close races there.

  35. San Benito county because it mirrors generally the state overall. Currently, it’s too close to call for both prop 16 and prop 17 with prop 16 slightly losing.  

  36. Denham looks good to do. He’s flattening in Mariposa and Stanislaus, and together those have more precincts outstanding than Fresno.

  37. and since LA is settling down, it needs to keep a big lead in Orange, San Bernardino, and San Diego to win (h/t phensley).  If each of those slips a few points from their standings earlier tonight, I think it’s over.  Will be watching closely!

  38. Considering the controversy around Richardson, I think 65% is a pretty good showing. I’m surprised a stronger candidate hasn’t challanged her. Maybe next year.

  39. Is it a known bellwether in CA? The GOP Senate candidates have the exact same percentages in Santa Barbara as statewide.  

  40. It’s only a matter of personal pride in my prognosticating ability now, but Winograd just broke 40 against Harman: 59.5-40.5 with 66.9% in.

  41. even though 17 is tighter than 16 statewide, No is now leading on 17 by 53-47 in LA County, while No on 16 has pulled ahead very narrowly there.

  42. I cannot believe how they were so close to passing.  At least it looks like they won’t.

    Kinda a mixed bag tonight in CA, on the plus side, Campbell didn’t come out of nowhere to win the GOP primary (that would have been very bad), but Aanestad didn’t win the GOP primary for LG (that would have been very good.

    Kinda sad that Taintz didn’t win in the SOS GOP primary though.  Would have definitely motivated some liberals to come out on election day to keep her out of office.

    I’m kinda WTFing right now when I looked and saw that Tom Torlakson didn’t win by the landslide I expected him to, but that he is actually down by 30,000 votes.

    Interesting night.

  43. All the propositions are going the right way (although I know people disagree about 14).

    Meg just spent 85 million dollars to win by…. FORTY points!  LOL  

    Carly is a weak opponent for Boxer, this one goes into the Likely Dem category.

    Busby is california’s Dan Seals… third time better be a charm, but at least she won the primary convincingly.

    Calvert loses 1/3 of the GOP vote (as do jerry lewis and Wally Herger).

    Harman wins, but at least it wasn’t close.

    Pombo embarrassed.

    AG and LG are the statewide concerns… in part because the overall ticket (Brown, Boxer, Newsom, Harris) is waaaaaaaaaaaaay to San Francisco heavy.

  44. Look at this map:

    then look at this map:

    People who had PG&E as their utility hate the company and are eager to vote against, even in rather conservative areas.

    By contrast, Los Angeles County was the only county outside the service area to vote no.  That could be the liberalism of the county, but I suspect the fact that the City of Los Angeles has successfully run its own power company for decades, with money flowing from the power company to the city coffers and not the other way, probably had something to do with it too.

  45. Maine. It seems that moderate republicans for the second time in a row split their vote very “nicely” (between Abbott, Mills and Otten (may be with some votes for Poliquin)), and as a result the leading conservative (at least – social conservative, though he didn’t stressed the subject as much as some others) – LePage, won rather easily (38% against 17 for Otten). That. probably, makes Libby Mitchell’s (winner of Democratic primary) task somewhat easier – usually Maine doesn’t vote for socialy conservative Republicans in general elections. We shall see.

    New Jersey. I wanted to say “nothing interesting”, but it seems that “establishment candidate” in NJ-06 narrowly lost to teabaggers-supported candidate. Other “establishment candidates” (in NJ-03, 09 and 12) – won, but not especially convincingly. The same is true for many incumbents, Lance, for example, won renomination with about 56% of vote.

    Virginia. “Establishment candidates” won all “important races”, i.e. – VA-02 and VA-05. Will teabagger’s threat of independent conservative candidacies be real???

    South Carolina. One of the most intersted states yesterday. Haley won big and, probably (in absence of very big sex-scandal), is a next governor (despite very strong showing by Sheheen in Democratic primary) of this state. Candidate unknown almost to everyone wins Democratic Senate primary (not that it matters much, but still). Inglis is almost surely finished as a representative from SC-04.Scott-Thurmond runoff in SC-01: black candidate against son of former leading segregationist. Big surprise for me – 1st place in SC-03 of Richard Cash. even ahead of CfG “darling” Jeff Duncan.

    Georgia (special). Nothing really interesting, the more wingnut candidatewith more money  won as many expected.

    North Dakota. Nothing interesting.

    South Dakota. Expected Daugaard victory in Republican governor primary and rather unexpected – of Kristi Noem in SD-AL.

    Iowa. Nothing absolutely unexpected, but Branstad victory over Vander Plaats was much narrower then in must be theoretically. Rather convincing victory of Zaun and loud defeat of Gibbons in IA-03, republican leadership again bet on wrong horse..

    Arkansas (runoffs). Liberals and netroots got their preferred (in runoff) candidates in AR-01 and AR-02, though i still consider Elliott, who again won only one county, but won it big, a serious underdog against Griffin. It’s easy to imagine mass defections of Wills’s supporters to Griffin in November, and general electorate in AR-02 in November will be much more conservative then Democratic primary electorate yesterday. The defection of Wooldridge supporters to Crawford will be considerably smaller, in part – because of center-right image of Causey. AR-03 – the slightly saner (or at least so he seems to me, despite his position on immigration) candidate won. Of course – liberals and netroots missed their “biggest” and most “desired” scalp with Lincoln victory. Most likely that will not matter after Nov. 2, but who knows…

    Montana. Nothing to speak about.

    Nevada. Harry Reid got his preferred opponent (though it’s not clear that after “chicken’s story” Lowden wouldn’t be even more preferrable) and improved his reelection chances, but Rory Reid – didn’t and is, probably, a heavy underdog against Sandoval.

    California. Nothing unexpected on highest level. Boxer is more safe against Fiorina then she would be against Campbell, despite him being a chronically bad fundraiser.. Republicans probably got heir best candidates in CA-11 and CA-19, as well as in some statewide races, like Attorney General and Lt. Governor. Some surprising results – for example for Superintendent of Public Instructions, or (IMHO) – republican primary for Insurance Commissioner….

    As usually – detailed analysis (state legislatures and so on) “belongs” to local experts…

  46. First, Progressives in Arkansas who supported Halter NEED to unite around Lincoln. She may not be our perfered candidate, but she’s better then the alternative. If the people who supported both Lincoln and Halter come out and support just Lincoln, this one isn’t over. Granted, it’s a uphill climb, but everyone thought Lincoln was dead in the water once.

    California: Orly Taitz not winning SoS hurts, because she would have brought down the entire Republican Party in California. Still, I’m not sold on the Republicans candidates that are in place, and while Brown and Boxer aren’t well liked, I think Dems should be able to win both races out there. The props not passing was epic win,

    Nevada: The Tea Party just handed Harry Reid another 6 years. Angle isn’t well known in Las Vegas – Reid is going to start really hammering her in that area.

    South Carolina: I actually expected Haley to avoid a run-off, but it’s good that she didn’t. Still, I’m oddly attracted to Nikki Haley (may just be her look, but there could be something to her ability to speak). I would never vote for her, but there’s just something about her that has me swooning.  

  47. Good – Fiorina, Causey, Angle, LePage.

    Bad – Lincoln, Elliott, Sandoval, Noem, Brandstad, Greene.

  48. With two Democrats facing off in November…no idea if Torlakson or Aceves is better, though.

  49. The failure of Prop 15 in California will have a major impact for the redistricting for Congressional seats.  Its failure means that the nonpartisan redistricting commision for the state will not redistrict congressional districts, but only state legislative districts.

    This will, assuming Jerry Brown wins his contest against money for governor, mean that the Democratic Party will be able to significantly increase the number of Democratic seats for 2012 from California, although the state as a whole will retain 53 seats with no change.

  50. The CA GOP ticket has to be one of the most diverse in the country. They have a female Sen, Gov, and Treasurer nominee, a Hispanic Lt. Gov nominee, and an African-American SoS nominee. The only two white guys on the ticket are Controller nominee Tony Strickland and AG nominee Steve Cooley.  

  51. feels late, but at the same time it doesn’t given how late I’ll be up tonight working on my paper. :)

  52. thugs must of tossed a whole bunch of Orly’s votes into San Francisco Bay or conveniently deleted them!

  53. why on earth would you pass up the taste for yummy cat fud? (although, on the bright side, as long as the Democrats have balls, perhaps the racist smears against Nikki Haley will stop.)

  54. He could

    1. Continue and lose embarrasingly.

    2. Continue and win with Blanche magic.

    3. Continue and see if Haley falls apart due to allegations.

    4. Drop out and live to fight another day, uniting behind future Gov. Haley.

    5. Drop out only to have Haley fall apart.

  55. and Quintana’s ballot designation, “Businessman/Educator,” sounds more appealing than Mickey Kaus’ “Journalist/Blogger.”  I know of at least one Quintana voter.

  56. n/t

    And really, he was the only intelligent opposition to Boxer.

    I looked at his website, but he came off looking as a skeezer to me. His pictures with every known celebrity in Hollywood and Washington turned me off.

    I skipped voting for the Senate race. I don’t think I’ve ever skipped a race.

  57. NRCC-backed Gibbons’ 20-point spanking over in IA-03. have fun being in the same category as Vaughn Ward, loser.

  58. I lvoe her.  I’ve seen her on a few of the shows and she just seems confident, clear and kinda of a bit zany.  And I dont think anyone is unclear about her views either, which is refreshing.

  59. the first chapter of Jenny Sanford’s autobiography. Man Mark Sanford’s a sleezebag. Let’s just say you have to be pretty morally bankrupt to tell your wife after the entire world’s found out about your affair that “the worst is behind us.”

  60. She seems good to me. Plus a nobody won the GOP nod. I love seeing progressive women win.    

  61. Politico did a piece today on the establishment pick running a crappy campaign and possibly losing to her.  And the state GOP was very worried.  Seriously.  They’re breathing a big sigh of relief tonight.

  62. …Gibbons.  Gibbons has never run for anything, this was his first try for public office.

    Zaun is the former Mayor of Urbandale, a Des Moines suburb, and I think perhaps a former state legislator, too.

    Zaun worries me more, Boswell just got who I’m guessing is the toughest opponent.  You never really know, Zaun could prove a bust, but on paper he looks toughest to me.

  63. Great, now I have to choose between Harris (fellow African American) and Cooley (whose values appeal to me).

  64. evil Prop 16 is leading by 3 points right now. And their cleaning up in Los Angeles county by 13 points! If they hold that margin in LA County, they would of won the state….

  65. that’s all I can say. I don’t like Harris that much, but there’s a 60/40 chance I’ll pull the lever for her in November.

  66. Values like being a dick? Personally, what turns me off about Cooley is the hypocrisy (he’s a three-termer who ran against a two-termer and won largely on anti-incumbent sentiment). I am definitely not a hardcore Harris fan, but the AG primary race was super low-information in California, IMHO. I will say that the more I get to know about Kamala Harris, the more I like her, which bodes well. What does not bode well is that AG is likely to be super low-information again in the shadow of gubernatorial and Senate races.

    Also, seriously, Cooley is a dick. No one is going to be able to convince me that he is not. I should point out that his being a dick does not necessarily preclude me from holding my nose and voting for him. Lord knows I’ve voted for enough dicks and douchebags in my life to [metaphor censored, for the children].

    No offense meant, Zeitgeist, I respect your opinion, and as I just admitted, I was a relatively low-information voter on this race. But just so everyone knows, I am joining the expected ad hoc Democratic haterade brigade on Steve Cooley.  

  67. I hate to concede a Senate seat, but I don’t see a path to victory for Lincoln.  (Halter didn’t have one either).  The money could be better used in Missouri or North Carolina.  

  68. he calls dudes “bitches” all the time too.  May be that it’s still sexist, but at least it’s equal opportunity.

  69. how she plans to climb back from where she is now. Or maybe Blanche can think the polls are wrong now.

  70. will bring a smile to your face. Blanche just tweeted this:

    President Clinton: “Blanche, you’re the new Comeback Kid!”  

  71. It seems that his brand was sort of the tea-party alternative to Angle. Seemingly his voters would be anti-establishment tea partiers who thought Angle was too out there. I really don’t know who they would have voted for had he not run. I suspect more would have gone to Angle but that Lowden would have gotten a respectable amount of them

  72. If that passes, that will seal my fate of ever living in California.  That is just simply too fucked up to ever tolerate as a normal sane human being.

    Was it that it only applies to county paid for energy sources or all energy sources?  (Either way, absolutely ridiculous.  Not only that it’s 2/3rds, but as my one poli sci prof told me, that kind of crap is just bad politics.  We elect people to make these decisions for us.  I do take some difference in some situations, but energy sources, how ridiculous.)

  73. but lots of folks in LA and san Diego have no reason to hate PG&E.

    So, this is not a usual Dem/Rep breakdown, but rather PG&E spending a fortune to get people who don’t hate it (SoCalers) to vote for it.

  74. First prop 8 now this junk, WTF CALIFORNIANS.

    I did my part and voted for only 13 and 15. :(

  75. You’re clearly one of Obama-bin-Ladin’s islamo-communist-athiest-Kenyan goons.  

  76. the one that demands 2/3rds of voters must approve any plan to break away from PG&E. Pretty tyrannical right? You can rarely get 2/3rds of the voters to agree on anything, just look at the US Senate.  

  77. California is killing itself through the will of the people.  This is why we elect legislators.

  78. In this context, it means, Im watching and cant wait to see what you got so you better work it.

  79. to the secret prison for you! How dare you call Emperor President Obama that! You can spend the rest of your life contemplating your lack of judgment as you slave away with the other mines building the Death Star!

  80. I must admit I am a moderate WASP who really hates the conspiracy theory types.  Cannot we just send all the conspiracy theorist to Alaska or outsource them to Siberia?

  81. If Unions could not beat Lincoln in her weakened state…. Mike Arcuri (NY-24) is probably smiling big time now, John Barrow (GA-12) and Jim Matheson (UT-something) can vote any way they please.

    I have mixed feelings on the topic.

  82. Dude, we can do that when we’ve won our basic civil rights battles. For now, show a little discipline, Andrew, or you’ll never make capo in the gay mafia…which, btw, according to recent polls, the Tea Partiers believe actually exists. And Andrew, I’m sure our double-X-chromosomed representatives appreciate your patronizing support. But maybe next time, you can refrain from off-handedly calling our apparent nominee (and granted, ugggh) a word that’s been used to denigrate an entire gender for at least a century.

    To the point: some gay dudes also drive tractors, RuralDem. Some gay dudes are farmers, some are ranchers, and some [obligatory Brokeback Mountain reference]. Gay people are diverse, just like farmers are. Just like rural areas are.

    But yes, in the gay community, “bitch” can be a term of endearment. And in that spirit, Andrew is still my brutha. Although he is also such a bitch right now.

  83. I struggle to convey sarcasm all the time.  I actually write (sarcasm) when I do to avoid issues.

  84. when the populace is willing to properly engage in it.  CA is a complete disaster and when job searching, I make sure to avoid that sinking ship because their direct democracy issues.  It’d be as frustrating as having George Bush re-elected every single election cycle because there is always something stupid on the ballot in CA.

  85. I’d like to know where that idea came from.  He’s been blanketing the airwaves here lately, but he was a total unknown until a month or two ago.

  86. founders were right when they said you couldn’t trust the masses to make the decisions important to running the country. Direct Democracy did work in Athens but only because only Athenian citizens that were male and owned property could participate in it.

    Wait until those “tax nothing, cut everything” people down in OC put a proposition demanding that every budget must be approved by the voters. And I bet California will be stupid enough to vote for a proposition like that.

  87. but I am not sure the Iowa GOP moneybags who recruited and funded Gibbons will get behind Zaun now. He will need a lot of money to compete with Boswell.

  88. While commenting on a race considered low info, you should provide more info other than “he’s a dick”.  Or maybe keeping it low info (and low brow sounding for that matter) is a good thing????

    Even the Lincoln haters were more informative and not so unpleasant sounding.

  89. Clearly a bastion of Orly lovers: she has 45% of the vote there (only 942 raw votes, though).

  90. For letting Props be decided on primary election days. Props should only be allowed on higher-turnout November election days.

    I mean, yeah, Prop 8 made me a second-class citizen and all, but at least I felt like I knew it was a “fair” result, democracy-wise.

    But it would appear that Republicans turned out and Democrats did not, relatively-speaking. Meaning PG&E owns your a$$. I’m suddenly a lot more appreciative of the LADWP…now THERE’s an unexpected election result.

  91. even though I have my fair share of half-Asian friends (I love me some bananas), I couldn’t tell. how embarrassing.

  92. my ex-bf/current roommate is half white/South Korean and yup, I can tell so easily now.  And he also says nobody can ever correctly guess his nationality.

  93. even know you could place propositions on the June primary ballot until this year! PG&E was smart, they put their proposition on a primary day where Republicans would outnumber Democrats.

  94. would be in Reid’s best interest if Tom Cruise acts like the self arrogant asshole he is just before the election so as to remind people how dangerous Scientology is.

  95. … ending Social Security and withdrawing from the UN.

    This race just went leans Dem IMO.

  96. Just looked up her prohibitionist views. Wow; and she’s trying to win statewide office in Nevada!

    Please, Harry, don’t mess this one up!

  97. I think it sucks.

    It allows well known people to run for offices without first having to get through a primary (see Rossi, Dino).


  98. I am a union guy and Halter is closer to my views than Lincoln but IMO this was a huge waste of money.

  99. Direct Democracy does not work.  California needs to just legalize suicide seeing its voters continually commit it at the polls.

    I love California.  I lived 7 years of my childhood there, but I would never live there because it exhibits the worst of both sides of the spectrum.

  100. Only 14% in, Prop 16 leads by 5% and ZERO votes counted in Alameda, which should run 60-40 against or better…

  101. The political climate maybe so anti-Reid that even a complete nut like Angle can win.  

    But Harry Reid’s political career has come back from the dead.  Whether that is a good thing, who knows.  

    I also think immigration reform is now dead, thankfully.  The only reason why the Senate Dems were interested in immigration reform was to save Harry Reid.  Angle might do that.

  102. enough as a Californian, there are plenty of moderates including myself (center left here) and my mom who live in the state. But the gerrymandering and the proposition process caters only to the extremes of both ideological spectrum. Only in California can we reelect a deeply unpopular governor and proceed to boot him out a year later.

    Hey how’s the climate up there in Washington State? Cause its my goal in a few years to move to Seattle once I graduate college and I’m on a stable footing?  

  103. as far as that goes.  Barrow’s biggest hurdle is black support.

    Arcuri needs labor support in the general.  If they refuse to back him, he loses the general.  And I think the unions are going to tell Arcuri to go to hell.


  104. by losing this race, labor will look elsewhere to send their message.  That means actually sacrificing winnable Democrats in the general.  I could see them withdrawing support from Arcuri, Space, Nye, Boucher, etc and watching a number of them go down in flames.

  105. He’d better “smile” real hard if he has any hope of defeating Hanna. Let’s keep this in perspective: Lincoln has very little chance to win in the general election – I’m calling this race Safe-R, until further notice – and Arcuri has very little chance in his general election – I’m rating his race Likely-R until further notice.

  106. Unless you move to the burbs, not the greatest for moderates.  Now, as a hardcore lefty, I’d love it, but, politically, it’s Berkeley with more tech and espresso.  But, it’s also known for tolerance…of all sorts.

  107. But frankly it’s going to be tough, what with LA, San Diego, and Riverside running so strong in favor.

  108. reform is mainly do to Arizona’s new discrimination policy and I sure as hell hope immigration reform not dead.  

  109. seems from the current results that there is definitely a North/South divide. There are a lot more votes in Southern California and we will see if the trends continue.  

  110. assuming precincts of equal population, they won’t even hit 120,000!  What’s going on?

  111. The decade in the wilderness was hard on labor. The memory of Rethug’s controlling congress will be enough to consolidate support for the general.

    Look at it this way, they’re not going to get a better deal by watching Republicans win, will they?

  112. Having lived in both cities, Portland, OR is much more tolerant than here in Seattle. Also, WA state has the most regressive tax structure in the country — since we mainly rely on sales taxes to pay for state services.

    As of now there is no income tax, though that will probably change in November, due to I-1098, which Bill Gates Sr is pushing. It creates an income tax for high wage earners and is being pushed heavily by the state’s progressives.

    Speaking of tolerance, WA is the only state that has voted to increase rights to gay and lesbians. So I guess we do have that.

  113. My “he’s a dick” reasons are stupid, petty and personal. And, most importantly, totally inconsequential to actual discussion. So I’ll shut up now on that. Apologies.

    However…as for publicly available reasons to oppose him, the haterade brigade should start with his opposition to the people’s wishes on dispensaries, focus on how he’s a political insider in an anti-incumbent year, and follow up with a serious report on his ignorance of the plight of battered women.

    That said, he’s easily, in my opinion, the Republican candidate most likely to win statewide this year. And his public stances on a number of issues were almost heroic in their opposition to popular opinion. (Jessica’s Law, Three Strikes)

  114. I also see 117/119 for AG, but still 0/119 down in the props.  I wonder if this data is being entered by hand?

  115. the 57/43 figure in my home county of Los Angeles is alarming, but it does consist mostly of absentees.  I’d bank on a No win if LA breaks 50/50 in the end, which is about what I expected pre-election.

  116. but Democrats who don’t even vote for an extension of unemployment benefits or COBRA are probably not worth keeping from labor’s perspective.

    Labor tried to send the message in a painless manner tonight.  (Lincoln was a loser anyway, so they were not sacrificing anything, while sending a message that if you don’t toe the line on our issues, we’re going to primary you.)  That not having worked, I wouldn’t be surprised if they will risk some pain (i.e. actually losing Democrats who could win otherwise).

    Arcuri, Space, Nye, Boucher, etc are probably on the block.  My guess is that labor will try to make an example of one or two Congresspeople.  

    For example, here is a diary on dKos on their efforts against Zach Space.

  117. someone who wrote this to me on Facebook.

    And yes, i love democracy, i love California’s proposition system. Probably you don’t because you’ve been on the losing side of it (recall of Davis, Prop 8, 13, etc).


    Oh, I have no problem with super majority requirements. That’s fine because it doesn’t empower the minority to do nothing more than to maintain the status quo. Under the current Obama junta, the minority rules over the majority. The majority opposed Obamacare, but it still passed.

    He will probably be infesting my Facebook wall in the next few hours shoving it in my face about how Prop. 14 passed.

  118. if Arcuri backed health care.  His district is a pro-labor district, very different from Arkansas.  And by opposing HCR, he opens the door to being called a flip-flopper.  Real dumb vote on his part.

  119. My first thought was alcohol, but no! This must mean continued prohibition of marijuana, right? Not exactly an extremist position for a Republican (or even, sadly, a Democrat).

  120. I think endorsements are usually given too much credit for a candidate’s success.

    Carlyfornia Dreamin’, Brandstad and Haley all won by double digit margins. The first two are most certainly what one would call establishment candidates who had the money and backing of the national GOP. If they didn’t win, it would’ve been considered a huge upset. The Palin backing (which came very late in Brandstad’s case) had nothing to do with their victories.

    I could see a better argument for the Palin endorsement having an effect in SC for Haley, but that’s certainly not a major reason for her victory.

  121. had Palin endorsed Vander Platts two or three weeks ago, he would be the GOP nominee in Iowa.

  122. in that case, I will tell myself it was due to the competitive gov/sen primaries, to help myself get to sleep at night. (because, you know, I’m gay and I don’t want to think about one of the main architects of Prop 8 winning an election, especially in a swing district. :P)

  123. it’s a fairly noncontroversial measure to give all types of buildings (specifically, unreinforced masonry) the same exemption from property tax reassessment if and when they are retrofitted for earthquake safety.  I generally support property taxes, but I voted for it.

    However, when Californian talk about “Prop 13” they are referring to something vastly different, from 1978.  I won’t try to explain it in a comment, so you should look here.

  124. having grown up in CA and having my first job out of CSUS being running a voter registration drive for the Assembly Democrats.

  125. And I confess to having no idea if the current LA returns will be representative. But we also have to contend with San Diego (58/42) Riverside (65/35-although turnout is low, as mentioned above) and of course OC (63/37). As I type No is barely leading, just having broken 1 million votes.

  126. Aceves is a Democrat, a career teacher, principal, and district superintendent.  He has the endorsement of the Los Angeles Times.

    Pre-election frontrunners Romero and Torlakson are Democratic state legislators, both former teachers.  Romero is running against the teachers’ union; Torlakson has their endorsement.

    Among the minor candidates, Williams is a Democratic creationist.  Lenning and Gutierrez are Republicans, and may be creationists.  Blake is a drill-baby-driller.  McMicken wants to eliminate school districts and essentially have each school’s PTA make all major decisions, with funding handled at the county level.  Nusbaum wants to eliminate standardized testing.

  127. In 2005, Angle was quoted as saying she believed marijuana prohibition was equal to alcohol and suggested we might want to go back to having alcohol illegal. Saw it on Maddow a few hours ago.

  128. I didn’t realize all the candidates were put on one ballot.

    This is insane.  I supported Torlakson, as did many in Bruin Democrats, having met him and him carefully listening to our issues as college students for almost 2 hours.

    Didn’t really even hear about Aceves until now.

  129. Well that race is looking good. At least no crazies getting elected.

    At least CA doesn’t have fundamentalists like on the TX School Board.

  130. could win a statewide election in Nevada! Of all places! What, they’re gonna serve lemonade in the bars in the casinos?

  131. I did mention that in our drawn out conversation.  Since I wrote that, he hasn’t responded, but I’m half-expecting him to chime in in the next few hours to rub it in my face that Prop. 14 passed.  :-\

  132. No single candidate ever had the base in SoCal that Harris had in SF.  She’s got it.

  133. Los Angeles county looking better and better by the moment. Cross your fingers PG&E’s power grab is stopped.

  134. By the way, is Mendocino stalled too?  If it is, that would be even more classic.

  135. the D side looks a bit sketchier but Goodwin will probably, well, have a good win (not like it matters, this district is lost). I’m happy that Denham appears to be winning since I predicted he’d win despite the SUSA poll showing Patterson ahead, so it’s a personal ego boost for me.

    can’t say I expected Goehring to do so well in CA-11, though…

  136. I remember from 2008 that Prop 8 started off with a big lead in LA County and that lead slowly shrunk throughout the night to the point where I hoped that LA County might vote against it. but alas, my hopes were narrowly dashed.

    Even if Prop 16 loses tonight, I still haven’t forgiven California for Prop 8 just yet.

  137. Heh.  It actually sort of resembles me.  Not sure I should post personal info like that on a blog… but oh, what the heck.  I “outed” myself a couple years back.  Enough people know who I am in real life that it won’t matter either way.

    And yeah, the douche saw my post over on Calitics and rubbed it in my face in a new Wall post.

  138. and yes, absentees can generally be counted on to be more conservative than the e-day electorate.

  139. What I’ve been saying for awhile. Of course, no one listens to me. Only once Nate Silver realizes my genius does anyone listen. 😛  

  140. With LA down to 51.7% support, it comes down to those counties. The SOS site has many fewer precinct reporting in San Bernardino than the AP does, and level of support is constant at 65%. If Orange slips a few more points it won’t matter though,

  141. With LA down to 51.7% support, it comes down to those counties. The SOS site has many fewer precinct reporting in San Bernardino than the AP does, and level of support is constant at 65%. If Orange slips a few more points it won’t matter though,

  142.  and that is about all I know about him. Superintendent of Public Instruction is a nominally nonpartisan office so its elections are run like local elections (or like all primaries after 14 passes) where everyone runs in one primary and if nobody gets 50%+1 then the top two go to a runoff in November. If Aceves makes the runoff that is a big upset; I assumed it would be Torlakson and Gloria Romero.

  143.   This was a nonpartisan primary so there is a runoff since nobody got over 50%.

  144. Down to 50.6% now. I think your prediction of a 50-50 LA split is looking really good right now.

    (Also, sorry for 2x post)

  145. but the first county that came to my mind was Santa Barbara.  Turns out it was 1 point more Republican than the state at large in 2008, and 2 points more Republican in 2004.  Given that and what [little] I know of the area’s political behavior, I’d be inclined to agree.

  146. But seriously, I think a lot of us here had the perception that Research 2000 was not a good pollster. It’s good to see specific data and analysis by Nate confirming and detailing that fact.

  147. San Diego is also slipping a tiny bit… Paging Fat Lady, Fat Lady to the on-deck circle please.

  148. You said “People don’t take you seriously here. I do, and I’m not the only one.” So, are you saying people don’t but some, including you, do, or did you mean to say don’t?  

  149. I said I’m sorry if you think people don’t take you seriously here. I do (in other words, do take you seriously), and I’m not the only one.

    Got it? :-)

  150. of votes for Prop 17.  Prop 16, though also unusual, is much easier to understand in light of the electric grids in the state (pun semi-intended).

  151. looks like that’s it for tonight’s major excitement, aside from Prop 17.

    next up, June 22, where we have the NC runoff, SC runoff, and UT primary (and the boring MS runoff). Too bad I’ll be in China, meaning that the first polls will close at 7 AM on Wednesday and mostly come in while I’m in class. damn you time zones!

  152. Then I’m declaring victory for NO on Prop. 17!

    With 69.9% reporting, Prop. 17 now has 51.2% voting no, and is losing 45.0%-55.0% in L.A. County.  Prop. 16 is now at 52.1% NO.

    Currently, we also have 52.1% voting Yes on 14 in L.A. County, making San Francisco County and Orange County the ONLY counties in California where Prop. 14 is not passing.

  153. PG&E spent MILLIONS more in feel-good advertising to whitewash (“taxpayers right to vote”) what the proposition would do to fool ignorant voters.

  154. Going to China does not suck!

    Where are you going and what will you be studying while you’re there?

  155. I’m quite excited about China, but this is one of my minor gripes about it (along with the lack of Facebook and clean tap water). I’ll be in Beijing studying Chinese and hopefully doing some other recreational activity like calligraphy or something. And on the bright side, if a race does end up going late into the night, I can check it after lunch or something instead of staying up until 3 in the morning. 😉

  156. where their name is synonymous with “big, bad, scheming electric utility,” but I meant the geographic distribution of votes for Prop 17, not 16.  It doesn’t seem to break down along urban/suburban/rural, coastal/Central Valley/High Sierra, SF/LA, or even liberal/conservative lines.

  157. 1987 and 2004. I liked it much better in 2004, except for the choking pollution from the tremendous car traffic and tie-ups (vs. the previous profusion of bikes) and the wanton destruction of hutong (traditional villages-within-a-city) and their replacement with colorless high rise complexes.

    There are a bunch of sights to see, incredible acrobats at the Chaoyang Theatre (I assume they’re still great, but ask around), and I believe the excellent traditional Beijing Opera scenes I saw were at the Li Yuan Theatre (but again, ask around).

    I strongly advise you to bring a netipot because if you don’t, you may develop chronic allergies or colds from the combination of the pollution and crowding. I was staying in a hotel that my body reacted to with sick building syndrome, and if my father hadn’t had an extra netipot, I probably would have come down with bronchitis, or else we would have had to switch hotels and tried to get a refund of days we had booked. A few days of twice a day netipot use essentially cured what ailed me.

    Definitely don’t drink the water unless it’s either boiled or subjected to reverse-osmosis filtering, but eat jiaozi and delicious pickles, and have plenty of Beijing ka ya – I love it!

    China’s politics are interesting, quite different from ours in some ways and similar to ours in others. As you know, one has to be delicate about broaching the subject, but you will learn something about life in Beijing, at least, on your trip (keeping in mind that just as the rest of the U.S. is quite different from Washington or LA, the rest of China is quite different from Beijing).

    One possibly interesting reflection:

    When I crossed the border from Shenzhen to Hong Kong in 1987, I was very conscious of crossing from a dictatorship to freedom. In 2004, the heavy hand of the state was not as immediately obvious to a tourist in China, and – not to phrase this too controversially – the contrast upon returning to New York was not as great as before. I could imagine spending a year or so in Beijing for work, but I prefer Shanghai, which is more like New York. I hope you have a chance to visit Shanghai and its ultra-modern skyline. :-)

    Moderators: Please forgive this off-topic aside. I’ll stop now. :-)

  158. The areas PG&E covers go strongly against becase they hate the company.  The areas where it doesn’t cover and the name is just a generic term “power company” one, it did far better.

    There was barely any left/right ideology here.  It was just… familiarity breeds contempt.

  159. In particular, Sacramento County is not part of their service area; they are served by the Sacramento Municipal Utilities District.  Also, a little over half of the population of Santa Barbara County (and maybe 20% of Kern County) is served by Southern California Edison.  But yes, I did notice that trend (and I wonder why SCE and SDG&E didn’t join the Yes campaign).

    You have a great point about the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, which has a truly fabled history stretching back nearly a century to the days of William Mulholland.  Their ratepayers remember well their relative insulation from the power crisis of 2001, and vote accordingly.  I should have mentioned this last night, when trying to allay fears about the 57/43 early result in Los Angeles County.

  160. Of the major Yes-voting counties, there was poor turnout in Orange and San Bernardino, and HORRIBLE turnout in Riverside.  Only San Diego batted above average.

    Of the major No-voting counties, there was PHENOMENAL turnout in Sacramento (more total votes than Orange, and only 2/5 its size!), good turnout in Contra Costa and Santa Clara, average turnout in Alameda and San Francisco, and poor turnout in Fresno and Los Angeles.

  161. the establishment candidate was John Aslanian, who was willing to self-fund. He lost to the teabagger.

  162. DailyKos blogs do not equal labor going after Dems. Blogs like that equal PR attempts to connect with liberal/progressive bloggers and internet junkies.

    Just look at labor’s support of Mark Critz! He ran against HCR. That didn’t stop labor from spending big on his behalf and being excited about his victory.  

  163. to progressives in Arkansas, we don’t ask you to donate or to go out and canvas, phone bank for Lincoln. But please do not stay home or skip voting for the senate race in November or even worst, voting for Boozman.

  164. It was a report by a dKos user about the unions in Zach Space’s district refusing to support him.

  165.    For all the talk about what this race meant, the pundits are missing the point: all around this country their are families who’ve lost their jobs or watched their paychecks shrink. They are fighting to keep homes they’ve owned for 20 years. They are wondering how they are going to send their kids to school. These voters are demanding candidates who are speaking for them, not for the special interests who have destroyed our economy. And we will be at their side making sure that our members, their families and their communities have a voice in the process.

       We’ll see if Blanche Lincoln is made a better Senator for having to answer to working Arkansans over these past few weeks. And if you are Larry Kissell (NC-08) or Zach Space (OH-18) or Mike McMahon (NY-13) or Michael Arcuri (NY-24) or another candidate who stopped advocating for the needs of working families once elected, the labor movement is going to be at the side of those voters who demand change.


    I think labor is going to make an example out of Space and Arcuri by letting the GOP defeat them.  And I can’t tell you how proud I am of these unions today.  

    I’m a Democrat because they stand up for working people.  If they didn’t, on the other issues I’m split 50/50, and could well vote GOP.  For example, I’m a hardline hawk on foreign policy (I think the entire area in the Middle East belongs to Israel, and I support war against Iran, not just to stop them getting nukes but also to get rid of Islamic theocracy), and am strongly anti-immigration (oppose amnesty and support the Arizona law, but also would like to curtail legal immigration.)

  166. And those there are will vote for Lincoln.  The problem is that many of those voting for Halter were conservative rural Democrats and will likely vote for Boozman.

  167. Prop 13  Yes: 83.2% (84.5%)

    Prop 14  Yes 61.8% (54.2%)

    Prop 15 Yes 42.1% (42.5%)

    Prop 16 Yes 47.6% (47.5%)

    Prop 17 Yes 47.3 (47.9)

  168. Halter won some progressive support in Arkansas, but he really did well with the anti-Washington sentiment in rural counties, and Lincoln will have a difficult time getting those votes in November. Any normal well-funded Democrat would win most of the places that Lincoln won in a general election.

  169. Somebody who works against you but quite another to “allow” a Republican to win.

  170. thus they picked Lincoln to primary, because she was going to lose in November anyway.

    Had Halter won yesterday, I think labor would have declared victory, claimed that a message was sent, and would have moved on.

    But now labor is going to dig in its heels and are going to show their muscle in the general election by withdrawing support of a couple Dem Congresspeople and let them go down.

  171. Their message will be, if you don’t support us, you’re on your own in general elections. And in my opinion, it’s exactly the right message for the union movement to send.

  172. The winner didn’t really matter since the seat was lost anyway. At the same time I have some sympathy with the wasted money argument. I cannot support anything that helps Republicans win when it can be avoided.

  173. Fimian was an “establishment candidate” for this seat when it was open 2 years ago.

  174. I read the text of all the props, and I think I would have remembered (and voted differently) if there had been anything about redistricting in Prop 15.

  175. also the strongest ticket the train wreck known as the CA GOP has put up in a longtime. Only Whitman, Fiorina, Maldonado, and Cooley have a legitimate shot at winning though. And the CA Dem ticket is packed with heavy hitters from the Bay Area too. Boy this is going to be an interesting election season down here, good thing I’m entering college in the fall….College Democrats club here I come!

  176. They’re probably cheaper than SUSA, and they have a lower raw error (-.66 compared to -.84 for SUSA) according to 538.  

  177. Perhaps a more natural fit. I think SurveyUSA actually turned Kos down three years ago reading between the lines.

  178. there will be party switchers that give the Speakership to a Repub, or there will be shared power between Republicans and Blue Dogs.

    If the Dems don’t have at least 222-225 seats, I don’t think Pelosi will remain Speaker and it won’t be a majority worth having.  

  179. there will be party switchers that give the Speakership to a Repub, or there will be shared power between Republicans and Blue Dogs.

    If the Dems don’t have at least 222-225 seats, I don’t think Pelosi will remain Speaker and it won’t be a majority worth having.  

  180. could be at about 230 seats after the 2010 election. That translates to a loss of about 25 seats. It’s not a long haul from that to 225. (aka. I agree with your premise about party switchers / bluedog/R coalition, thus the importance of supporting even –ah– underperformers like Arcuri and Space).

    OTOH, the number of potential switchers could be limited by the Parker Griffith example.

  181. but I can see why labor refuses to.  And after what happened in Arkansas, I think the unions are a bit bitter, and the White House comments didn’t help matters.    

    Here’s what I’m seeing, either losses will be held below 25 or the GOP will get at least 40.  If it is not a wave election, we won’t lose less than 25 because our candidates are strong and the GOPs are weak.  But if it is a wave election, even our strong candidates will be washed out, and we’ll get crushed.

    If I have to bet it will be the former, and we’ll have about what we had in early 2007.  

  182. when I say “switch”, in this case I mean vote for a Republican speaker.  They won’t actually become Republicans, after seeing what happened to Parker Griffith and Arlen Specter.

  183. what happened at the top of the CA ticket in 2006.  The Angelides/Westly dogfight in June led to a lot of bitterness on the Dem side, which led to an Arnold blowout in November and probably depressed Dem turnout as well.  I don’t believe Strickland can make up more than 5 points this year, barring some sort of Chiang-related scandal.

  184. It seems to me that come October we all will operate (in our predictions) with the same numbers and names)))

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