SSP Daily Digest: 7/16 (Afternoon Edition)

CT-Sen: Quinnipiac (7/8, registered voters, likely Republican primary voters, 6/2-8 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (55)

Linda McMahon (R): 37 (35)

Undecided: 7 (8)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (54)

Rob Simmons (R): 35 (33)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (56)

Peter Schiff (R): 31 (29)

Undecided: 9 (12)

(MoE: ±2.7%)

Linda McMahon (R): 52

Rob Simmons (R): 25

Peter Schiff (R) : 13

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Not much change in the Nutmeg State. And it looks like Rob Simmons might have some pretty serious disincentive to not get back into the Senate primary again, as he briefly threatened.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio’s $4.4 million haul blew a lot of people away, but what’s equally impressive (and didn’t get any coverage at the time) is his burn rate. It turns out that, even though he no longer has a primary to worry about, he spent almost all ($4 million) of what he made.

NY-Sen-B: You might remember that there was some uncertainty as to whether Joe DioGuardi, who has the Conservative line for November, would even make it into the Republican primary thanks to his poor finish at the GOP state convention. Well, after gathering enough signatures, he has now successfully petitioned his way onto the primary ballot. He has consistently led polls of the GOP primary, although generally in the low 20s. (H/t andyroo312.)

WI-Sen, WI-Gov (pdf): Apparently, voters in Wisconsin are dimly aware that something called an “election” may be transpiring at some point in the future, as more than half of all those surveyed not having decided yet on a Senate pick, at least according to Univ. of Wisconsin’s Badger Poll. The likely voters in Wisconsin are currently going for Russ Feingold at 33 and Ron Johnson 28. RVs are Feingold 27, Johnson 21, and Wisconsin residents are Feingold 25, Johnson 19. In a remarkable contrast with Rasmussen (who’d have thunk?), nobody knows who Johnson is: he has 12/8 favorables among likely voters. They also look at the even-more-disinteresting gubernatorial race, finding Tom Barrett losing to both Scott Walker and Mark Neumann by the same margin of 32-15 (!). (UPDATE (DavidNYC): Here’s another good reason to mistrust this poll: It was in the field for a month. What the…?)

WV-Sen: The West Virginia legislature is still busy tinkering with their state’s election laws today as part of the preparations for the special election to succeed Robert Byrd. Perhaps most significantly, it sounds like they are planning special primaries (tentatively set for fast-approaching Aug. 28), rather than a jungle-style election in November. They threw out a Joe Manchin proposal, however, that would scrap the special primaries if only one candidate from each party decided to run.

AZ-Gov: We reported yesterday on the Rocky Mountain Poll (by the ominously-named Behavior Research Council), and it looks like they also have general election numbers. GOP incumbent Jan Brewer leads Democratic AG Terry Goddard 45-25, a surprisingly large margin since most non-Rasmussen pollsters have seen a close race (although that was mostly before SB 1070-mania hit).

CO-Gov: SurveyUSA, on behalf of the Denver Post, is out with a snap poll on the subject of Scott McInnis, post-plagiarism-scandal. It turns out that this scandal does have a lot of resonance — there’s a lot less semantic ambiguity here than with Richard Blumenthal or even Mark Kirk… either you wrote it or you didn’t (and then tried to pass the blame on an octogenarian ally). 20% of Republicans now say they’ll vote for someone else, but 39% say they’ll still vote for him. Looking ahead to a replacement, the poll also asked who “the strongest Republican” would be, and the number one pick was… you guessed it… Tom Tancredo, at 29. McInnis followed at 19, with primary opponent Dan Maes at 13. Jane Norton (a possible switchover, given her dwindling Senate campaign) was at 11, former candidate and state Sen. Josh Penry was at 7, and Univ. of Colorado Bruce Benson was at 3. (In other polling news, note that even Rasmussen can’t find a way to polish this turd, as seen in a poll (see below) taken last night.)

If you’re wondering who Benson is, he’s now the subject of perhaps the most speculation as the GOP’s preferred fill-in. Another name getting tossed around is long-ago former Sen. Hank Brown, who more recently served as president of Univ. of Northern Colorado. The Post also was apparently set to do its regularly-scheduled endorsement for the primary this week, and they said that prior to this week, they would have endorsed McInnis; now they can’t endorse anyone at all (which is quite the slap at Maes).

GA-Gov: Not that he seems to need a lot of help at this point, but Roy Barnes is getting the endorsement of Atlanta’s new mayor, Kasim Reed. Turnabout’s fair play, as Barnes gave Reed a late endorsement in last year’s election.

NY-Gov: Well, this race is effectively over: Andrew Cuomo reported raising $9.2 million in the last six months for a total of $23.6 million CoH. (You think he could redirect a little of that to the DGA? Of the nation’s 10 most populous states, 9 have gubernatorial races, and of those 9, New York is the lone one that isn’t highly competitive.) Rick Lazio, by comparison, raised $1.4 million in that period, and has $689K CoH, which might make him competitive in an upstate House race. GOP primary rival Carl Paladino reported raising $1.7 million during the same period… but $1.6 million of that came out of his own pocket.

TN-Gov: We normally don’t report on Mitt Romney’s many endorsements, as he seems to hand out low-four-figures sums of money to any Republican with a pulse who survived a primary. Here’s one that’s a big race though and where the decisive primary hasn’t happened yet. Romney backed Bill Haslam, the establishment and most moderate of the three GOPers in the primary.

TX-Gov: With full information available from Rick Perry, we know now that Bill White won each fundraising category. White outraised Perry $7.4 million to $7.1 million in the post-primary period, and White leads in CoH by a $9 million to $5.8 million margin. And here’s an interesting tidbit: the White campaign says it’s raised more than $1 million from former Kay Bailey Hutchison contributors.

CO-04: EMILY’s List is weighing into the 4th with a big independent expenditure. They’ll be spending $300K on TV advertising on behalf of Betsy Markey over the next three weeks; the ad’s a negative spot hitting Corey Gardner, including on health care issues.

FL-17: The Miami Herald has some helpful background on the largely-forgotten Democratic primary in the open seat 17th, which is where all the action will be in this dark-blue district. (This seat, long held by the Meek family, hasn’t had a competitive primary in decades.) They look at state Sen. Frederica Wilson as frontrunner, and they cite an AFL-CIO poll from March (the first I’ve seen of it) that had Wilson at 34, with 12 for Miami Gardens mayor Shirley Gibson and 10 for North Miami city councilor Scott Galvin. The race’s rapidly emerging wild card, though, seems to be physician Rudolph Moise, by virtue of having over $900K CoH, at least six times what anyone else has. Some of that is self-funded, but he seems to have raised the most from other donors too, and he plans to start an advertising blitz soon.

GA-12: Rep. John Barrow’s been burning cash fast lately: he raised $204K last quarter but spent $374K in that period, leaving him with $655 CoH. But that’s probably because his big challenge this year is in the Democratic primary (next week), not in the general, where his possible GOP opponents are all pretty weak. Of course, Regina Thomas doesn’t present that much challenge to him, either, if her financials are any indication: she raised $2,400 last quarter and had $6,600 CoH. But hey, at least she managed to file her FEC report on time this year.

ID-01: Here’s another way that Raul Labrador is an unconventional candidate: he thinks that following that unspoken rule that you release your internal polls only when they have good news for you is for pussies. He’s out with an internal, by Moore Insight, that gives Rep. Walt Minnick — in theory one of the most vulnerable freshmen by virtue of his district and narrow win last time — a 37-27 lead. Minnick’s re-elect is only 38/40, though, which I guess is worth something. Reid Wilson also has more detail on Labrador today, slamming Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to reach out to citizens for help on creating a new Contract with America-type-thing. (The democracy-hating Labrador, no fan of the 17th Amendment either, thinks House leadership should impose the agenda top-down.) Also, were you wondering why Labrador didn’t loudly tout his fundraising haul from last quarter? Well, that’s because he raised $101K in the post-primary period of May and June, and is sitting on all of $69K CoH with $30K debt.

MI-01: Is this the smallest sample size ever? Another Inside Michigan Politics poll of a House primary is out, this time in the Republican field in the open seat race to replace Bart Stupak, and it’s got a whopping n of 140. State Sen. Jason Allen and physician Dan Benishek (who was the lone GOPer before Stupak’s retirement announcement) are tied at the top with 20 each. There’s also a handful of no-names polling in the low single digits, one of whom, Linda Goldthorpe, just dropped out yesterday. (H/t TheGradyDem.)

Caucuses: Well, it was only a matter of time before this happened. Michele Bachmann is taking out the paperwork to create a whole new caucus in the House: the Tea Party Caucus. Hmmm… I thought that already existed, and it was called the RSC.

NY-St. Sen.: Here’s an interesting piece on the fundraising and infrastructure collapse behind the scenes for the GOP in the New York State Senate (who may, via GOP-held open seats, actually manage to lose further seats in November despite the nature of the year). Case in point: the race to replace retiring Senator Vincent Leibell in the Hudson Valley, where there’s cat fud a-flyin’ between establishment pick Mary Beth Murphy and teabaggish Greg Ball (who you may recall from briefly making a splashy entry in the NY-19 field).


CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 45%, Scott McInnis (R) 43%

DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 36%, Mike Castle (R) 47%

DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 39%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 41%

GA-Gov (D): Roy Barnes (D) 59%, Thurbert Baker (D) 16%, Dubose Porter 5%, David Poythress 5%

PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 38%, Tom Corbett (R) 48%

WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 45%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 45%, Clint Didier (R) 48%

WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 46%, Paul Akers (R) 41%

65 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/16 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. I’m confused by the last part. Is this the GOP primary and the Blumenthal (R) is supposed to be Simmons, or is this a 3-way general with Schiff as an indy?

  2. We should call the list of right-wingers Palin has endorsed “SARAH’s List” and come up with a derisive acronym for “S-A-R-A-H.”  Any suggestions?

  3. PPP has Nevada and Florida. Hopefully we will get some confirmation on the Reid/Angle in Nevada and we will have some House districts from them too. (Yay) Tom will be looking at John Ensign’s reelection for 2012, and Sharron Angle’s extreme views.

    In Florida, PPP will look at the horse race numbers for Governor and Senate & as well as Bill Nelson’s standing in two years.

  4. off topic but this is worrying

    The Pew Research Center’s latest News IQ Quiz showed that 47 percent incorrectly said that the Troubled Asset Relief Program was signed into law by Obama, while only 34 percent correctly said that the bailout was enacted under the Bush administration.

    Looks like outside Republican primaries TARP is going to be more of a liability for Democrats than Republicans.  


    1. DE-AL – OPEN (Castle) – Carney in good position.

    2. LA-02 – Cao – Richmond raised <$100K.  What?

    3. HI-01 – Djou – Djou has modest CoH advantage.

    4. IL-10 – OPEN (Kirk) – Seals keeps $$$ coming.


    5. FL-25 – OPEN (Diaz-Balart) – Huge haul for Garcia.

    6. PA-15 – Dent – Consistent Callahan fundraising.

    7. MN-06 – Bachmann – Huge haul for Clark.


    8. CA-03 – Lungren – Bera fundraising down a notch.

    9. WA-08 – Reichert – Good $$$, but not seeing it.

    10. PA-06 – Gerlach – Not the year for Gerlach to lose.

    11. OH-12 – Tiberi – Solid quarter for Brooks.

    12. CA-45 – Bono-Mack – Pougnet keeps $$$ coming.

    13. NE-02 – Terry – Weak Q2 fundraising for White.

    14. FL-12 – OPEN (Putnam) – Horrible $$$ for Edwards.


    15. SC-02 – Wilson – “You lie” ancient history.

    16. AZ-03 – OPEN (Shadegg) – Too red a district.

    17. CA-44 – Calvert – Hedrick fundraising weak.

    18. KS-04 – OPEN (Tiahrt) – Too red a district.

    19. AL-05 – OPEN (Griffith) – Thanks Parker.

  6. Is that right?  That is crazy.  I guess he could donate money to DGA but he has nothing to gain though.

  7. If I would be A Cuomo with this financial power I would help first to the State Senate democratic candidates what need help finding assure a democratic majority.

    And later, they are some competitive democratic gubernatorial candidates with financial troubles. If Im not wrong the republicans have now fundraising advantage in CA-Gov, MA-Gov, VT-Gov, OR-Gov.

    In New York too, if Im not wrong, Bishop is too in disadvantage in NY-01, like Hall in NY-19, Owens in NY-23, and Zeller in NY-29.

  8. One of the MI-01 no-names is trying to make himself a name by picking fights.

    One of the comments suggests that his most likely impact it to split the TP vote enough for Sen Allen to get nominated after all.

  9. Maybe the small sample size in MI-01 indicates that there were problems reaching the voters due to poor Yooper telecommunications technology…

  10. possible that PPP will poll it. There have been some problems with their poll (386 votes from one computer for Washington) so I’m not sure if Tom decided to poll this one this weekend or not.

    Colorado also looks good. If it’s two points from Rasmussen, it’s probably larger otherwise. And Murray is losing to Didier? I highly doubt that.

  11. Stupid Anti-Everything Rightwing or Reagan-worshipping Asshole and then something with H..who wants to help me?

  12. I voted for PPP to poll DE, but I assumed that it lost since it was so far behind WA (why?) in the poll.

  13. Davis is just Sparks “stole” the crown away just before the coronation ceremony. Proves he was looking out for himself only.

  14. used a new poll this week which resulted in a lot of people gaming the poll. First 80 votes were casted from the same IP for Delaware, and then 386 for Washington.

    According to him, he is polling Nevada and Florida.

  15. The numbers across the board were pretty good. Ohio Dems sucked a bit, and KY-03 seemed a little weak. Most every other defensive/incumbent seemed in good shape.

    CA-03 and PA-6 I’d put in Tier 2. THose were some bold, bold numbers for the Dems.

  16. No way is mack losing before redistricting.  CA-44  is twenty-five times more likely to flip this year than CA-45 (and CA-44 is less than 50% likely to flip).

  17. I’d put FL-25 in the top tier.  Bottom of the top tier, same ranking that you have, but still top tier.

    I have a feeling we’re in better shape there than anyone realizes.  That it’s under the radar only helps us.  Rivera has some real issues popping up to hurt him, and Garcia is solid in every way.  I think Joe Garcia could be this year’s Ken Bentsen, winning an open seat no one expected in spite of a terrible night for his party.

  18. I take back a comment up thread being disappointed by nevada too.  It isn’t nearly as overpolled as Florida, but still after a LVRJ poll today, it seems overkill to do Nevada now.  In two weeks maybe, but do something else now.

  19. doubt it. Rasmussen is a very unreliable pollster and he tends to show tea party candidates doing especially better than other main stream pollsters.  

  20. Both Democrats are going to win quite comfortably, like all NY Dems are accustomed too, now.  (Any GOP statewide elected officials even?)

  21. …confuse the stimulus with the bank bailouts.  Krugman alluded to such as early as last year.  Once again, poor messaging from the White House.

  22. Most people have no clue the stimulus was about 40% tax cuts, almost $300 billion!

    Most people don’t remember anymore that TARP was in 2008 under Bush, even though it was all over the news and was a major presidential campaign issue!

    Health care had “death panels” and whatnot.

    All it comes down to is that public morale is very low, and Obama and Congressional Democrats, being in power, get blamed.

    The particular misperceptions don’t matter too much.  The big picture is all that matters.  When job growth picks up more consistently, we will turn the corner.  But no one has any further control over that.

  23. And 45 is significantly more Democratic than 44.  I don’t think either will flip though.

  24. M Bono Mack can be dangerous if she run statewide, and better if she loses before the redistricting.

  25. Christine O’Donnell is detested by the GOP rank-and-file in Delaware…self-described conservatives would probably prefer Castle over O’Donnell by at least a 3-to-1 margin. She’s ONLY liked among the Tea Party crowd.

  26. When you have overwhelming majorities of respondents claiming to have opinions of candidates with obviously rock-bottom name rec or stature, that tells you the sample is not close to valid.  WA-Sen has Murray down 3 against Didier today, that’s absurd the same as O’Donnell, or actually even moreso since O’Donnell has run for office before and Didier has not.

  27. A good candidate with a rock and a piece of string could possibly beat Calvert.  $10 million won’t beat Mack in this district.  

    I know some people disagree, but the point of this cycle is poor incumbents are in big trouble.  By no measure is Mack a poor incumbent.  And, there is no way to spin Calvert as a statesman.  Calvert is far more vulnerable than Mack.  People didn’t like him in years past, and he didn’t get more kissable this year.

    One of these two districts can go blue after redistricting since it is the one area the wimpy CA Dems can aggressively redistrict because there is no blue incumbent in the area to freakishly pack all the Dems in.

  28. Especially if Kathleen Rice somehow doesn’t win the nomination. The NY GOP also seems to think Tom DiNapoli might be vulnerable in the Comptroller race.

  29. Donating to the DGA has never ever helped a candidate get on a national ticket.  And if he were to do it, he’d be smarter to do it in 2012 and 2014.

  30. doubt it. Granted I am not a New Yorker but he has never really inspired me that much. Don’t get me wrong I am glad to have him as he is saving the New York Governors mansion for team blue and providing coattails for fellow dems in tough congressional elections, I will give him that of course. I am not sure what he would add to a national ticket. I suppose tough on crime but is that really that important. Perhaps he could serve as AG in the future.  

  31. Any amount given to Brown can be overcome by Whitman easily.  White is raiding plenty and even or better than Perry.  Bill white won’t lose due to money.

  32. the reason why Brown is waiting to air ads is because he’s still raising money while Meg Whitman can just magically pull $100s out of her ass.

  33. because elections are not held in July, virtually everyone in the state is sick of political ads, and if anything, he doesn’t want to wear out his welcome because he already has near universal name recognition.

    Brown knows he isn’t cuddly loveable.  He doesn’t people to start hating him like they hate Whitman.  he’ll probably start in August with a decent amount, but really September is plenty soon enough to start airing commercials for Brown.

    He can’t outspend Whitman, but he can be smarter and less annoying.

  34. Brown needs smattering campaigning.  Trying to compete on money won’t help.  Just a fee good ads will help him.  Let’s be honest, he’s not exactly unknown.

  35. But PPP include not this options for vote.

    Despite that, Nevada with the house races, the gubernatorial race (I think B Sandoval can have troubles), and a 2012 poll for the Ensign’s seat can be interesting if PPP gives not down results for dems, like always.

    I understand not why PPP find all the times troubles for Nelson in Florida 2012. If Bush would wish to run for senate, he would run this year for an open seat, and not in 2012 against an incumbent.

  36. but I wish PPP would poll RI-Gov or RI-01 (D) (preferably RI-Gov since PPP’s track record on congressional races is iffy). Most of the polling of that race has been Rasmussen (I think a few local pollsters have weighed in, although I don’t really trust them), I want an actual polling outfit to tell us what’s going on. unfortunately since we’re so tiny not enough people actually care about us to get us polled. (also I can’t vote since blogspot is blocked in China >:/)

  37. Rhode Island is so interesting for me too, because is so underpolled too.

    If PPP poll your state, they surely would poll both house races. They make that for states with three or less house seats.

  38. I hope they emailed him back and told him was he was a jackass and clearly doesnt understand what all happens in politics.

  39. and I’d like it to stay that way, so don’t go posting videos of political unrest in Tibet, you hear? 😛 jk.

  40. although after PA-12 my faith in them is fading a bit. But I am really curious to see whether Cicilline is doing as well in RI-01 as CW holds or if David Segal is successfully turning his netroots popularity into real support. RI-02 will probably be boring, Langevin will crush Betsy Dennigan and soar to victory in the general as well.

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