Arizona, Florida, and Vermont Primary Results Thread #3

1:35am: Follow us over here.

1:34am: And yet another lead change in Vermont. Now Peter Shumlin is back on top by 121 votes over Doug Racine, thanks to only two more precints reporting (now 232 out of 260).

1:28am: Meanwhile, back in Arizona, the AP has called the AZ-08 GOP primary for Jesse Kelly, who unexpectedly beats establishment favorite Jonathan Paton 49-40.

1:26am: We’ve moved up to 29% reporting; Miller still leads Murkowski by about 500.

1:24am: Via the Twitter, Taniel is reminding us that Don Young trailed early in the GOP 2008 primary (against now-Gov. Parnell), and came back slowly as the late precincts from the Bush (where they like and in fact depend on their pork, and thus love the old-school Alaska politicians, in which category Murkowski seems to fall) trickled in.

1:20am: At least the indestructible Don Young is cruising; he leads the AK-AL GOP primary over Sheldon Fisher 70-24.

1:18am: We’ve got gubernatorial results in Alaska too. On the Dem side, Ethan Berkowitz is leading, though maybe not as big a margin as expected; he leads Hollis French 48-42. On the GOP side, Sean Parnell also leading by a not overwhelming margin, 48 over 35 for Bill Walker and 14 for Ralph Samuels.

1:15am: Wow, this is big. We’re just getting the first Alaska results (via the state site, the AP has nothing) and we’ve got a real race in the AK-Sen GOP primary. Joe Miller leads Lisa Murkowski 51-49, with 27% reporting (119 of 438).

1:11am: We’re rounding the halfway mark in AZ-Sen D (1100 out of 2239), and it’s looking like Rodney Glassman is on track to face John McCain. He’s at 35, with Cathy Eden at 28, J. Dougherty at 24, and Randy Parraz back at 13.

1:09am: The AP has called AZ-05, where David Schweikert is still at 39% atop a crowded field. That’s with only 38% reporting, but he’s well ahead of Susan Bitter Smith, at 25.

1:07am: Contrast that with Arizona, where nothing interesting has happened since the initial rollout of votes. In AZ-01, we’re up to 66% reporting, and it’s still the exact same, with Paul Gosar over Sydney Hay 32-23. Rusty Bowers, who on paper seemed like he should have been the frontrunner thanks to his long-ago legislative tenure and then his duties lobbying on behalf of the sand and gravel industry, is in 4th place at 14, trailing B. Beauchamp.

1:03am: I don’t think this Vermont race could get any closer if we tried. Doug Racine pulled back into the lead, by a whopping 13 votes over Peter Shumlin. That’s with 230 out of 260 precincts reporting (88% in).

1:00am: In AZ-03, we’re up to 48% reporting. Looks like Ben Quayle going crying to mommy and daddy may have saved him in the end; he’s still holding at 23, beating Jim Waring and Steve Moak, both at 18.

12:51am: The Peter Shumlin lead is declining a bit in Vermont: he’s up by 45 now, 16,401 to 16,366 over Doug Racine, with Deb Markowitz at 15,621. (That’s 25-25-24.) 88% are reporting.

12:29am: We’re up to 35% reporting in AZ-03, and Ben Quayle has inched up to 23%, ahead of Waring at 19% and Moak at 18%. A Quayle win would certainly breathe a bit of life into well-financed Democrat Jon Hulbard’s campaign…

12:25am: Shumlin’s lead is now down to 75 votes (over Racine). Markowitz trails by 768 votes.

12:21am: Smoke ’em if you got em, fellow Swingnuts.

12:17am: Over in AZ-06, GOP incumbent Jeff Flake is at a somewhat underwhelming 67% against his Some Dude opponent.

12:11am: Get your Florida election law on. Automatic recounts are the name of the game if the final margin is less than 0.5%. In FL-24, Adams leads SnakesinaPool by 0.8% with one measly precinct outstanding.

12:05am: Not much has happened in the Arizona House Races. Gosar’s lead in AZ-01 is 10% of 5,500 votes with 51% reporting; nothing else new from AZ-03, 05, or 08.

12:03am: Shumlin’s now up to a 250-vote lead in VT-Gov, which is probably the largest lead of the night. Markowitz is still about 550 behind Racine.

12:00am: Still no call in FL-24, where we’re missing only one precinct in Brevard County. The last one added no votes, leaving Adams’ lead at 560, or 0.85%. SSP Legal is looking to Florida’s recount laws…

11:54pm: In AZ-Sen (D), we’re at 19% reporting; Glassman leads Eden 35-29, with Parraz in a distant fourth at 12.

11:48pm: More precincts keep flowing (dripping) in Vermont, where Racine is now 49 votes behind Shumlin. Markowitz is another 618 votes behind with 85% in.

11:46pm: Just two precincts left outstanding in FL-24, where Sandy Adams continues to hold her 560-vote lead over Karen SnakesInAPool (TM) Diebel, though both of them are in reptile-infested Brevard County.

11:41pm: Checking in on the Arizona house races, Paul Gosar has a 33-22 over retread Sydney Hay in AZ-01; Ben Quayle has a 22-19-18 lead over Jim Waring and Steve Moak in AZ-03. Dave Schweikert’s seem to have done fine despite his recanted hubris, leading Susan Bitter Smith by 6,000 votes or 39-25 in their AZ-05 rematch; the teabaggish Jesse Kelly has a 50-39 lead over establishment pick Jonathan Paton in AZ-08.

11:37pm: Back in VT-Gov, Peter Shumlin has now taken a 126-vote lead over Doug Racine; Deb Markowitz has now fallen another 526 votes back.

11:34pm: The Glass Man is up to 36-29 over Eden. Over in AZ-08, Kelly leads Paton by 50-39. In AZ-01, it’s 33-23 for rogue dentist Gosar over Sydney Hay.

11:31pm: We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the one other competitive statewide race in Florida, the AG race on both sides. For the Dems, state Sen. Dan Gelber beat fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who the DCCC had tried to lure into FL-16), 59-41. And on the GOP side, Sarah Palin-approved Pam Bondi beat Charlie Crist’s estranged Lt. Governor, Jeff Kottkamp, 38-33.

11:28pm: Well, that was fast. The AP has called AZ-Sen R for John McCain! (Good news!)

11:20pm: In the 5th, David Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith and Jim Ward 39-25-23. And in the 8th, this may be the big surprise of the night: teabagger Jesse Kelly is leading NRCC fave Jonathan Paton by a pretty wide 55-40.

11:19pm: In the House races, Paul Gosar’s over Sydney Hay 36-23 in the 1st. In the 3rd, Ben Quayle is leading 22-19-18 over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

11:17pm: Finally, some data’s trickling in from Arizona. (Check out the SoS site, not the AP.) John McCain is crushing J.D. Hayworth 60-30. Rodney Glassman has a small lead over Cathy Eden, 33-31. (Randy Parraz is in 4th.)

11:12pm: Check out the raging enthusiasm with which the RGA greeted Rick Scott’s awesome victory!

“Rick Scott is the nominee, the general election has begun, and our party now looks forward.”

11:11pm: Switching back over to Vermont, now that we’re pretty much done with Florida and Arizona hasn’t given us anything yet. It’s Racine and Shumlin both at 25 (Racine up by 43 votes) with Markowitz at 24.

11:07pm: This just gets tastier and tastier. McCollum isn’t conceding yet. He’s saying “this’ll go into the wee hours of the morning.”

RESULTS:

123 thoughts on “Arizona, Florida, and Vermont Primary Results Thread #3”

  6. in Vermont.  Racine leads by 32 votes.

    Insanely close – though I think Racine wins because of the outstanding precincts in Burlington…

  9. of the 460 or so precincts not reporting, only about 20 come from counties Scott carried, and the rest are favorable to McCollum, so that margin is going to get smaller.  (He needs to pick up 40k and it is hard see it being more than 10k.)

  13. Do Democrats have a shot at AZ-03? We do after all have a good candidate there. I could see it joining the top ten Democratic targets if he does win.  

  14. GOP Moron of the year, in fact, I would go as far as to say he is THE moron of the year.  He was THIS close to winning this thing, but oops, we forgot, he is a retard.  Oh well, hopefully Glassman can get enough name rec to run for a statewide office next time.

    Le Sigh…

  17. chimes in on PPP’s blog:

    If Rick Scott is the GOP nominee 47% of Chiles voters are Republicans and 30% are Democrats. If Bill McCollum is the nominee 46% of Chiles voters are Republicans and 42% are Democrats

  18. Who is the most progressive of the Dems candidates, and who is the most likely to beat Dubie? I did a quick scan of Shumlin, Markowitz, and Racine’s website, but Shumlin seems like a bit of a d-bag to me. He even called himself a fiscal conservative.

  19. By my math, only about 700 votes are outstanding in Brevard, and Diebel would need 90% of those to pass her. The Adams lead is 0.8%; does that mean an automatic recount?

  24. There’s also a pretty competitive primary on both sides for Attorney General in Arizona.  Given the noises Brewer’s been making, I think this race should deserve some attention, with Goddard leaving it to run against her for Governor.

    On the Dem side we have the State House minority leader David Lujan, and two former assistant attorneys general in Arizona, Felecia Rotellini and Vince Rabago.  On the GOP side, it’s between superintendent of public instruction Tom Horne and former Maricopa County attorney Andrew Thomas.

    And with 32.7% of the precincts reporting, on the Dem side, it’s:

    Rotellini 80,751 43%

    Lujan     76,270 41%

    Rabago    30,735 16%

    And on the GOP side:

    Thomas  179,286 51%

    Horne   173,820 49%

    The numbers seem to have stabilized a bit in the last couple updates, but there’s still enough votes out there that this is still anyone’s game on either side (well, except for Rabago).

    The AG seat has been in Dem hands for 12 years (Janet Napolitano held it before Goddard).  Are Dems favored to keep the seat?  Anyone know?

  29. I was sure that Murkowski wouldn’t trail at all, not even in early returns. With 27% in, this could get really fun.

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