NV-Sen, NV-Gov: One Reid Leads, The Second Trails

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/26-28, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens, 6/1-3 in brackets):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (44) [41]

Sharron Angle (R): 42 (37) [44]

Other: 2 (4) [3]

None of these: 7 (5) [4]

Undecided: 6 (10) [8]

(MoE: 4%)

With the last M-D poll done for the LVRJ a little too optimistic for Reid, the right-wing mouthpiece is out with a second poll in three weeks, leaving Jon Ralston to ponder whether the LVRJ has subtler motives here.

Papa Reid’s down 1, Angle’s up 5, and NotA is also up 2 from two weeks ago. Peeking into the guts of the poll gives us quite the Republican-leaning electorate, with Obama’s approval at a shockingly low 39/55 and a whopping 52% supporting a repeal of health care reform (well above the national average, where a plurality now oppose repeal). Both candidates remain about as popular as water fluoridation (oh wait, that’s actually popular), with Reid sporting a 38/51 and Angle only a few points better at 38/47.

Despite (or perhaps because of) Angle’s vendetta against the teeth of the residents of Washoe County, she still trails Reid in Nevada’s 2nd-most populous county 43-41; she loses the 800-pound gorilla Clark County to Reid 47-39. As you guessed, rural Nevada keeps her afloat where she’s more than doubling up Reid 56-27.

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/26-7/28, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens, 6/1-3 in brackets)

Rory Reid (D): 31 (36) [37]

Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (47) [51]

Other: 2 (3) [1]

None of these: 3 (7) [1]

Undecided: 14 (7) [10]

(MoE: ±4%)

Baby Reid, trailing by 11 two weeks ago, now trails by 19. He’s down 5 while Sandoval’s up 3. Sandoval continues to be popular, coming in at 49/17 while Rory Reid’s favorables remain underwater at 29/40. Sadly, his last name might be Rory’s albatross, with 33% of respondents saying they’d be less likely to vote for him and a measly 4% saying they’d be more likely to do so. Reid loses a good 18% of Dems to Sandoval and is losing Clark County 45-36; he does worse in Washoe (53-28) and worse still in the outlying counties (68-15).

Unfortunately, no racial crosstabs are given in these polls, but the sample was taken before Sandoval’s recent contraction of foot-in-mouth disease, which we hope isn’t contagious and won’t spread to his non-Hispanic looking kids. Whether that gives Rory Reid an opening in this state where Hispanics made up 15% of the electorate in 2008 remains to be seen in future polls. If we get more bi-weekly polls, great; if we don’t, then Jon Ralston’s onto something and the LVRJ is showing its true colors.

106 thoughts on “NV-Sen, NV-Gov: One Reid Leads, The Second Trails”

  1. about the Las Vegas Review Journal is a complete non-sequiter.

    What Ralston is really doing is casting suspicion on Mason-Dixon, since they were the ones that actually conducted the poll.  The LVRG is just the entity that pays.  

    So Ralston is actually questioning is Mason-Dixon but he knows he cannot say that with a straight face considering the pollster’s reputation with the national political press.  Thus, you get some unrelated point about the LVRJ.

  2. This is becoming Blumenthal redux. Ralston was badly damaged when he admitted the tape of Sandoval talking about his children didn’t have audio.

    It’s becoming where it doesn’t matter whether Sandoval said it or not, but Ralston’s credibility.

  3. Sharron Angle might be able to recover by November, but that’s only if she remains completely, unequivocally disciplined and quiet over the coming months. Unfortunately for her, I think she’s defined herself too much to bolster her standing among moderates; only strong conservative GOTV will save her.

    Democrat – 34%

    Independent – 33%

    Republican – 33%

    Reid – 90/43/5 = 47%

    Angle – 5/45/87 = 46%

    Other – 2/5/5 = 3%

    None – 3/7/3 = 4%

    Reid – 83/38/5 = 43%

    Sandoval – 13/55/90 = 52%

    Other – 1/2/3 = 2%

    None – 3/5/2 = 3%

  4. Does Reid have a chance at beating Sandoval?  I haven’t really heard anything positive about him or the campaign.  Is Reid in position to take advantage if Sandoval makes more errors along the way?

    I’d have a hard time voting for a father-son combo here in PA if it were ever on the ballot together.  Something about it just seems weird….

  5. …that Harry Reid is as he has mostly been near even against a wackjob.  And if she can hide out in he same cave the Republicans have been tucking away Rand in she may just have a chance of pulling this out if she can make the election all about Harry.  Who the electorate clearly wants to dump.

    Of course hopefully Angle won’t shy away from the camera.  And speaking “truth” as she sees it.

  6. … at the infamous Modern Nepotism panel (with Li’l Daschle and Li’l Ickes), I have to say that I don’t think he could inspire ice to melt in July, let alone independents to vote for his candidacy.

  7. does she become a GOP star?  thune became a minor one for knocking of the current minority leader, defeating the majority leader would have to be huge kudos to her.  now thune was smart and shied away (to a point) from the spotlight.  i have a feeling that once the election is over and she can’t lose for six years, angle will be on fox and every other friendly media outlet to say every dumb thing that comes out of her mouth.

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