SSP Daily Digest: 8/5 (Morning Edition)

  • TN-Gov: Today, we are all Basil Marceaux Dot Com.
  • AK-AL: After three years of anticipation and $1.2 million in legal defense fees, GOP Rep. Don Young’s office is now claiming that the Department of Justice will not prosecute the crusty incumbent for his involvement in a wide-spanning Alaskan bribery scandal.
  • AR-01: Three aides to scuzzbucket former state Sen. Tim Wooldridge, who narrowly lost the Democratic primary to Chad Causey, have decided to endorse Republican Rick Crawford. Wooldridge is still staying mum on who, or when, he’ll endorse, but this doesn’t seem like a good sign for Democratic unity.
  • AZ-08: National Research for the Conservatives for Congress Committee (7/26-27, likely voters):

    Jesse Kelly (R): 36

    Jonathan Paton (R): 17

    Brian Miller (R): 5

    Undecided: 32

    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    CFC’s dog in the race against Democrat Gabby Giffords is clearly the tea-stained Kelly, as opposed to the NRCC-hyped state Sen. Jonathan Paton. Who knows if this poll is credible, but let’s hope that it is!

  • NY-01: Hah, this is a pretty good catch by the George Demos campaign. They’re hitting Randy Altschuler for sending out campaign emails cribbed from the notepad of NY-23 loser Doug Hoffman. Sure, it’s not at the same level as Scott McInnis, but the more cat fud consumed in this race, the merrier for all.
  • NY-29: A hearing officer of the New York Board of Elections has invalidated enough signatures to knock Some Dude Janice Volk off the GOP primary ballot for the vacant seat left behind by Eric Massa. The NYBoE will issue its ruling on the matter today, but it doesn’t look like the beleaguered Volk campaign has the resources — or spirit — to appeal the decision in court. Volk’s exit will ensure a fight between Republican Tom Reed and Democrat Matthew Zeller this fall.
  • PA-06: Jim Gerlach is attacking his Democratic challenger, physician and Iraq War veteran Manan Trivedi, for not having lived in the 6th District in recent years. But of course, Trivedi was otherwise occupied with a little thing called military service during that time. Douche chill!
  • WY-AL: Mason-Dixon for the Casper Star-Tribune (7/26-28, likely voters):

    David Wendt (D): 29

    Cynthia Lummis (R-inc): 59

    Undecided: 12

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • RNC: The Republican National Committee has taken out a $10 million line of credit in preparation for funneling major resources to the party’s efforts at winning Dem-held House and Senate seats this fall. There’s no word, yet, if Democratic committees plan to follow suit — you may recall that in the last cycle, both the DCCC and the DSCC took out substantial loans to help take advantage of the national climate.

  • 76 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/5 (Morning Edition)”

    1. From the Plum Line:

      And these programs that you mentioned — that Obama has going with Reid and Pelosi pushing them forward — are all entitlement programs built to make government our God. And that’s really what’s happening in this country is a violation of the First Commandment. We have become a country entrenched in idolatry, and that idolatry is the dependency upon our government. We’re supposed to depend upon God for our protection and our provision and for our daily bread, not for our government.

      ( http://voices.washingtonpost.c… )

      Read the original story here:

      Her campaign’s “pushback” to this news:

      Only the supreme arrogance of Senator Harry Reid would believe that he has a divine right to rule over mere mortals by ramming through Obamacare, billions in reckless spending, and yes, buying cocaine for monkeys. The fact is, Senator Reid has acted like he’s all-powerful and accountable to no one. Citizens are frustrated because, like Sharron, they understand Washington has become a giant, unseen, omnipotent force whose presence is felt in all our lives whether we like it or not.

      Greg Sargent’s astute response to this “pushback”:

      Unless I’m missing something, that sounds a bit like a reiteration of her position, right?

    2. This probably means nothing, but the blog is indicating that Democrats are rallying behind Blue Dog Stephanie Herseth-Sandin.


      Margin of error is probably larger then the actual number of voters in the poll, but this was flagged to me, so it has to mean something to someone.

    3. not likely voters.

      In the link, “[a] total of 625 registered Wyoming voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.”

    4. Any locals have reports on turnout there?  I’m thinking the extreme heat might keep people away from the polls.

    5. Got any suggestions as to whom I should vote for, for him to throw support to?  The choices are Carnahan, Conlin, Conway, Fisher, Hodes, Marshall, and Melancon.

    6. looks good. Cantwell is much more popular than Murray (+8 vs +1), and she leads two Republican Congressman in a year where Democrats are probably at their low point. I’m pretty sure Democrats will be going up in Washington by 2012.


      Cantwell 47% (D)

      Reichert 41% (R)

      Cantwell 49% (D)

      McMorris Rogers 37% (R)

    7. She really isn’t allowing herself to be handled at all.

      That’s the biggest difference between her and Rand Paul.  Rand does keep popping off, but much less often than Batshit Crazy Sharron.

    8. I don’t think He’s repeating the “food from the sky” trick anytime soon.  Let me know if I’m proven wrong, please.

    9. In the Ohio gubernatorial contest, there have been 12 polls taken since March 29th, 6 of which have been by Rassmussen.  In the 6 Rassmussen polls, Kasich has led in all 6.  Meanwhile, Strickland has led in 5 of 6 put out by other firms, the lone outlier being a PPP poll on June 26-27 that had Kasich ahead 43-41.  

      In the Senate race, more of the same.  There have been 11 polls taken since March 23rd, 5 of which were Rassmussen polls.  In the Rass polls, Rob Portman led in 4 out of 5, and was tied in the other.  Meanwhile, Lee Fisher is 6 for 6 in the other firms’ surveys.  

      But no, Scotty Rass isn’t trying to drive the narrative, no way…

    10. using some stimulus money to test the effects of cocaine on monkeys.

      Really, it was a small grant to a medical research lab to perform experiments on drug addiction.

    11. Rasmussen reporting that Kasich is losing support is huge. If he has a couple point lead in this poll, then reality says Strickland probably has a 2 or 3 point lead.

      I don’t know if Undecides are breaking to Strickland, or if Kasich is just bleeding support, but still, it’s looking better and better every poll.

    12. If memory serves, in the past, as elections have come closer, Rasmussen polls have also converged towards more realistic numbers.

      We are getting closer to the 2010 elections. Rasmussen numbers are likely to be more credible now.

    13. If Rasmussen has the same pronounced GOP bias compared to other pollsters come October, that would be new.

      Almost all pollsters become pretty accurate, with little differentiation between them, as election day nears.

      That’s Rasmussen’s saving grace, since there’s no way to definitively refute any pollster’s numbers further out.  All we can use is our knowledge and experience with past elections and polling, which is enough to be confident Rasmussen cooks its polling to produce GOP-friendly numbers, but not definitive proof of innaccurate horse race results.

      Some of the convergence probably is by chance, as the result of voters themselves becoming hyperengaged as it gets close, and differences in methodology mattering less.

    14. that Rassmussen’s numbers have started to get better with regard to actual reality lately.  And they’ll probably fall more in line as we get closer to November.  But it’s rather remarkable that in both of the big races in Ohio, with the exception of the one PPP poll from June 26-27, they’ve been the ONLY one to show Kasich OR Portman in the lead.  Had Rassmussen not polled the state at all this cycle, we’d be talking about these races as being Leans Democrat, not Toss Up.  

    15.  If even Rasmussen cannot give Carly a close number, then Carly is not going to win. Also, Boxer is running a good campaign with those flyers of Boxer and Fiorina’s compared stances on the issues.  

    16. Until this time, perhaps the majority of Rasmussen polls have been (on average) essentially like R internals —

      It’s probably time (or at least close to time) to avoid the knee-jerk “5 point discount” reaction to new Rasmussen polls.

    17. Even far from election day Rasmussen has a non-trivial number of polls that jibe with what other pollsters say.  They also have some that have a modest-to-moderate GOP-bias, and then some that have a laughably extreme GOP bias, like the post-primary KY-Sen poll that had Paul up 25 on Conway.

      There’s no MATHEMATICALLY CONSISTENT bias in Rasmussen, rather they’re just all over the map.

      So “totality of polling” is the only way to go.

    18. Malloy always seems to run better, but a lot of people here want to spite Lieberman. Who’s better on the issues?

    19. w/r/t “no mathematically consistent bias”

      Such variance is something also seen from various internal polls — at least those released publicly. And that was part of my point — that until closer to an election, Rasmussen numbers should be considered like R internals.  

    20. Batshit Crazy Sharon is a true believer.  She and the teabaggers and Redstaters really believe that if you just are as conservative as you possibly can be, you’ll win in this political environment.  At least Rand Paul has realized that he needs to STFU until the elecion — I really think that Angle and her inner circle think that saying stuff like this is actually going to help them.

    21. I’ve said it before, but Gerlach can only lose this race by running his mouth.  This year favors him.  If he sticks to issues and just runs a generic campaign, he has a good shot at winning.  Doing stupid stuff Luke this will make it a close race.

    22. for Lamont personally. The reason why this poll is close is because Malloy has been attacking Lamont on the air using recycled LIEberman attacks that were debunked four years ago.  

    23. Basil Marceaux sounds like a man with legit mental issues, or at least has absolutely no idea what politics are. Dale Peterson was folksy, and he had a message that resignated with the voters of Alabama. Was he a quack? Sure. But he wasn’t completely inept.  

    24. All the rest are probably going to get lots of attention anyways, certainly Carnahan and Conway.  Melancon has the added strike against him of being a ConDem in an unsustainable seat.

    25. seems like a good investment.  She could use some funds to get her name rec and favorables up.  Quite achievable.  With proper marketing she could become better known than sitting senator Burr!

    26. If the results don’t pan out the way they think, it could be hard to get out from under.  People could be very angry if they have debt and don’t take over.

      I’m personally still pretty optimistic, with Dems holding the Senate easily, well beyond 52-48 (i.e. not giving Lieberman/Nelson chance to tip to Repubs) and at most 25-30 House seats.  Maybe I’m too optimistic.  

      When I read through the list of prospective seats that would be needed to give the GOP back the house, I just don’t see all 40 flipping.  And I know the wave proxy that there will be seats we don’t suspect, but many of the possibly vulnerable Dems are prepared, fundraising well and running solid campaigns.

    27. TN-06 (open), PA-10 (Kanjorski), AR-01 (open), AR-02 (open), NY-24 (Arcuri), NY-29 (open), VA-05 (Perriello), VA-02 (Nye), NC-08 (Kissell), FL-08 (Grayson), MS-01 (Childers), TX-17 (Edwards), LA-03 (open), KS-03 (open), ID-01 (Minnick), MO-10 (Skelton), MS-04 (Taylor), AL-02 (Bright), NC-11 (Shuler), NM-03 (Teague), PA-07 (open), NJ-02 (Adler), OH-15 (Kilroy), OH-01 (Driehaus), WV-01 (open), NV-03 (Titus), NY-20 (S. Murphy), NY-23 (Owens), MI-07 (Schauer), WI-07 (open), CO-04 (B. Markey), TX-23 (Rodriguez), FL-22 (Klein), NY-01 (T. Bishop), GA-02 (S. Bishop).

      Even if they run the table on all of those races, that’s only 34, and while I can’t remember which number accounts for their open seats, I’ll give them their max at 179, and 179 + 34 = 213, which is stil not enough.

      And I’m quite darn sure we’ll keep some of those–for example, Minnick and Bright have shown that they’re extremely tough to beat, Olivero isn’t doing badly, Klein’s challenger is somewhat off the rails, and Grayson won’t go down without a very fierce and expensive fight.

    28. Need money the most. Both would be solid D votes. I would point out that Melancon is no Ben Nelson. I get the impression that he’d vote against a lot stuff, but he wants stuff to get done, so he wouldn’t filibuster.

    29. You did hear about Mary Landrieu winning re-election post-Katrina, right? We can’t just give up on the South…

    30. I’m also concerned about WA-03, OR-05, ND-AL, SD-AL, IA-03, IN-09, OH-18, FL-02, SC-05, NY-19, NH-01, NH-02

      forgive me if I duplicated something on your list…..

      While I think most of those that I’ve added will survive, they could very well fall in a big wave.

    31. Can you provide any reasoning why MS-04 and GA-02 are vulnerable other than the “anti-Democrat” sentiment that some on here constantly push? It’s one thing to say Democrats might have a harder time this year, it’s another to say Gene Taylor is one of the more vulnerable Democrats.

      I can see why the others are listed, but Taylor’s trounced his opponents easily and for the most part, Bishop has as well.

      If anything, Marshall’s seat is the most vulnerable in Georgia, even though I think he’ll do quite well.

      I’m just not a fan of the broad brush approach.

    32. I can think of some seats on that list I’m not too worried about (for instance MS-04) and some seats I’m a bit worried about that you left off (eg IL-11 [Halvorson], IL-14 [Foster]).

    33. Louisiana is unsustainable.  There is no benefit in constantly spending millions in limited resources to elect people like Melancon only for them to vote like the people we’re trying to beat.

    34. Black turnout was extremely high for Obama in 2008. There was no President Obama in 2008. Things have gotten much worse for Dems in LA. Hell, they almost left the LG. Race (an office they currently hold) uncontested and their candidate isn’t that great. Also, Vitter is following Reid’s lead. The only difference: Vitter is popular in a state that heavily favors him. I think Vitter will build a huge lead over the next few weeks and never look back.  

    35. likely that seats where incumbents aren’t voting their district (R+1 to R+5) will fall than Taylor’s or Bright’s where they know their districts and are personally popular

    36. In looking at everyone’s respective posts, there are words used like “vulnerable”, “Concerned” and so forth.  Its right to be concerned about those Dems in ehavily Republican districts, as one small misstep could open the door, even for a seasoned incumbent.

      In all, there are probably 50-60, maybe even 70 seats that Republicans could win in a perfect storm (the wave, candidate implosions, scandals, death, etc).  But there is no evidence of a perfect storm, and I still don’t see the title wave.

      I could be wrong.  But as usual I hope I’m not.

    37. that I could think of at the time.

      The idea was that they could barely, if at all, reclaim the majority if they completely ran the table.

      And given that they’re unlikely to, with approval ratings at about the same as or even worse than those of Congressional Democrats,…yeah.

    38. Its just that Murray’s running this year.  Cantwell and Murray both are at 46% approve in that poll, just Murray has higher disapprove.  I doubt most voters could tell youe xactly why they disapporve of Murray more.

      A thought occurs.  I wonder if this trend is true in other states where there are 2 Dem Senators with 1 running this year and the other not.  That would be interesting to see.

    39. like almost half of Louisiana (including GOPVOTER) will always hate Landrieu. She’s almost as hated as Harry Reid is down in Nevada. But the GOP always seems to screw it up in the end so Landrieu will always escape their grasp.  

    40. voted for the stimulus and unemployment benefits and the jobs bill. He also opposes repealing HCR. He is rather old and I do not know if he would run for a second term so he might be more liberal than you think. I could be wrong but something is telling me that if he was not in a competitive election he would have voted for HCR, but doing it now would have been political suicide. Also Vitter is a disgrace I would love Melancon to win.  

    41. His swing state polls in 2008 were all GOP leaning.

      Colorado – Obama +4 when he won by 9.

      Florida – McCain +1 when Obama won by 3.

      Indiana – McCain +3 when Obama won by 1.

      Nevada – Obama +4 when he won by 12.

      New Hampshire – Obama +7 when he won by 9.

      North Carolina – McCain +1 when Obama won by 1.

      Pennsylvania – Obama +6 when he won by 10.

      Ohio – Tied when Obama won by 4.

      New Mexico – Obama +10 when he won by 15.

      Wisconsin – Obama +7 when he won by 14.

      Virginia – Obama +4 when he won by 7.

      Yes, many within the margin of error but every damn time leaning one way. Missouri was the only state he had Obama doing better than he did. His reputation is not as good as those on the right like to think.

    42. Am I the only one shaking my head at comments like this?

      Sure we disagree on ideology and strategy, but come on. I guess that’s more civil than some of the other comments you’ve made before though.

      Ah well.

    43. I always remember North Carolina and Indiana and Ohio and Florida and Nevada and Pennsylvania.  But your list is longer than that, and in particular I didn’t remember Ras had Obama only +4 in CO.

      I think there’s actually a potential explanation there in that Ras does some weighting in its results, and might have missed the unprecedented surge of non-white voters.

      Of course that doesn’t explain missing the national popular vote by only one point.  Not that Ras was unique there, everyone was in the same ballpark.

      In any case, StephenCLE’s notes on the current cycle are very telling.

      My fear though is that come mid-October, the bottom will drop out on us in almost all these real close ones.  That’s what happens in a wave.

    44. They probably disapprove more of Murray because she is up for re-election this year, if that makes any sense.  

    45. If I remember right, Rasmussen’s national number was based on a rolling sample. Their state polls were not.

    46. ND-AL (Pomeroy), SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin), IL-11 (Halvorson), IL-14 (Foster), PA-03 (Dahlkemper), GA-12 (Barrow), GA-08 (J. Marshall), and I’ll throw in any four from tietack’s comment up there.  That’s +11.  Fine, 224, assuming they completely run the table.

      But of course, that’s assuming they completely run the table.  We couldn’t even do that in either ’06 or ’08, and additionally, they have little margin of error for their own defense–DE-AL, LA-02, IL-10, MN-06, FL-25, AL-05, OH-02, SC-02, KS-04, or substitute a few that I’ve forgotten here and there, and they’re back a tie.

    47. and Adler and Teague and took Skelton’s district’s PVI (R+10) as its district number.

    48. don’t think we have a good shot at many of the Republican seats you listed. Certainly DE-AL, LA-02, IL-10, and FL-25 (as well as HI-01 and maybe PA-06). I think the energy of the teabaggers and the lean of her district will be enough to save Bachmann. AL-05 is a possibility but given how we just barely held it with a state senator in a Democratic year, I’m not optimistic. Schmidt is perpetually vulnerable but with the Republican year, her actually not-that-close election in ’08, and Chili’s poor fundraising, I’m not licking my chops there. SC-02 looked promising after the “You lie” incident caused a fundraising explosion on both sides, but while I can maybe see Rob Miller keeping Miller to the high 50s, I doubt he’ll win. Similarly, while Goyle is a strong candidate, KS-04 is super-Republican and I think Goyle represents one of the most Democratic parts of the district to begin with.

      As for Chris Carney though, I don’t think he’s vulnerable. I think McCain made a tactical error in asking him to switch parties. Now Carney can use that to highlight his bipartisan credentials.

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