NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4

3:00am: Still no call in NH-Sen, or even much of any progress. Only a few more precincts trickled in over the last hour (now 83% reporting). Apparently they were Ovide-friendly areas, though, because Ayotte’s lead shifted down to 964. We can stick a fork in the last other race that’s still outstanding: incumbent Adrian Fenty has reportedly conceded to Vincent Gray in the Washington, DC mayoral primary. With that, we’re hanging it up for the night!

2:08am: If you’re wondering what’s up with NH-Sen, it’s still a smallish Ayotte lead, now with 82% reporting. Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,346 (still 38-37).

2:05am: And here’s some bigass news via the Twitter: Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative line, is planning to “fight it out” through November. Not that it’ll have an impact on the bottom line… now Andrew Cuomo gets to win 70-15-15 instead of 70-30.

2:03am: It’s over in NH-01: the AP has called it for Frank Guinta. With 81% reporting (91/113), he’s now beating Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney 32-28-28 (Mahoney got a late surge as Portsmouth came in). He has a 2,200 vote lead over Ashooh. The baggage-laden Guinta faces Carol Shea-Porter in November.

1:26am: One last projection from the SSP mainframe: we’re seeing a 1,838-vote win for Ayotte, and a 2,486-vote win for Guinta. That’s based on the latest batch of precincts (taking us up to 238 of 301, which is 79% in). Right now, Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,213 (38-37), while Guinta leads Ashooh by 2,237 (32-28).

1:22am: The AP has also called NH-02 for Charlie Bass. He currently leads Jennifer Horn 43-35, with a margin of about 4,000 votes, with 80% reporting. Unfortunately, facing the moderate and well-known Bass makes our matchup with Ann McLane Kuster more difficult than a matchup against teabagging Horn.

1:20am: AP has called the NY-AG race, and Maggie Haberman is reporting that Kathleen Rice has conceded, making Eric Schneiderman the Dem AG nominee. (Oh, who am I kidding… making him the AG.) It’s 34 Schneiderman, 31 Rice, with 91% reporting.

1:14am: And in NH-02, with 69% reporting, Bass leads Horn and Giuda 42-36-17. Bass’s lead is 2,708. Our model projects a 4,1110 vote win for Bass at night’s end.

1:12am: In NH-01, with 69% reporting, Guinta leads Ashooh and Mahoney 33-29-27. Guinta’s lead is 2,131. Our model projects, in the end, Guinta wins by 2,555.

1:10am: Another 10 precincts, so it’s 70% reporting. Ayotte’s up by 792 (still 38-38 with Lamontagne). That moves our projection to 1,576.

1:05am: 20 more precincts just showed up in NH, taking us up to 67% reporting. (Including all of Laconia reporting en masse, apparently.) Ayotte’s now leading Lamontagne by 700 votes. Our model has adjusted to project a final Ayotte victory of 1,593.

1:00am: If you’re wondering where we are currently, and not where we’ll be in the future, it’s Ayotte and Lamontagne both at 38%, with Ayotte up by 421. That’s with 60% reporting. (Bill Binnie is in 3rd at 14%, with 12K votes. If he spent $6 million of his own money, that’s only about $500 per vote.)

12:56am: SSP Labs is bending the curve downward: now we’re seeing a 1,441 Ayotte victory after everything’s been counted.

12:48am: Sarah Palin appears to have either dropped her BlackBerry on the floor, or else has lapsed into speaking Norwegian, with her latest Tweet:

Competitive trongmsgssent& tonite;congrats 2 the victors;Now, Commonsense Constitutionalists, let’s unite

12:46am: In case you were wondering, Mike Castle has now made clear that he will not endorse or otherwise support Christine O’Donnell. (No word on a Coons endorsement?) He also made clear that he won’t pursue a write-in bid, which would be most he could do.

12:44am: The AP has also now called NY-Sen-B’s GOP primary for Joe DioGuardi (who also has the Con line). He wins over Malpass and Blakeman, 42-38-20. With Kara departed from American Idol, I suppose Joe resumes being the most famous member of the DioGuardi clan.

12:41am: Here’s a couple calls from the “who cares?” department that we didn’t mention earlier: Jay Townsend (who also has the Con line) won the NY-Sen-A GOP line, 54-46, over Gary Berntsen. And in MD-Sen, Eric Wargotz eventually won the GOP nomination; he’ll face off against Barb Mikulski.

12:35am: SSP Labs has adjusted the NH-Sen projection, with the recent Ayotte surge. Now we’re looking at Ayotte by 1,783 in the end.

12:34am: Looks like Charlie Bass may have bottomed out early in NH-02 and is starting to put some distance between him and Jennifer Horn. Now he’s up 42-36, with 17 for Bob Giuda.

12:29am: Nathan Gonzales, ongoing debunker of the “anti-incumbent” meme, points out that as of tonight, 415 of 422 incumbents (House + Senate) have won re-election.

12:24am: In fact, the switch is already underway: the AP is seeing, for the first time, Kelly Ayotte in the lead. She’s up 39-38 (with a 200-vote spread), with almost half reporting. It doesn’t look like any of the bigger cities (other than Manchester and Nashua, who are done) reported anything, so the difference seemed to come from small towns.

12:22am: SSP Labs has kicked into gear, looking at NH-Sen by county-by-county extrapolation. It’s going to go down to the wire, but we’re seeing a 374-vote win for Kelly Ayotte at the end of the count.

12:07am: Matt Doheny wins the GOP nod against Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Cat fud lovers take note: Hoffman still has the Conservative ballot line for November… and Hoffman is Hoffman!

12:05am: We’re now at 40% in, and Ovide’s lead has whittled down to 733 votes. Guinta and Bass are both up by a cool grand.

11:58pm: Lamontagne’s lead has shrunk to 1127, and Bass is now up 910.

11:53 pm: Adrian Fenty is saved from Bob Inglis-dom, having recovered to a 45-54 deficit in DC.

11:50 pm: In New Hampshire, Charlie Bass in NH-02 is the only one who’s seen his lead increase, now to 668 votes. Guinta’s down to 891 in NH-01, and sadly, Ovide’s lead is now down to 1,324.

11:47 pm: For NY-AG, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice by more than 10,000 votes, mostly on his strength in NYC (44-25 over Rice). However, 71% of the city is now reporting, compared to 60% of LI. For NY-Sen-B, Joe DioGuardi continues to lead in all regions of the state with a narrow 42-39 margin.

11:44 pm: At least a second member of the NY State Senate has been booted tonight, the always-sketchy Pedro Espada. Note that both defectors, Espada and Monserrate, have been rejected by voters.

11:40 pm: Reid Ribble the Raging Roofer has been declared the winner in WI-08. Worst incumbent performance of the night, currently, goes to Adrian Fenty, who’s now staring at 70-29 deficit in the DC Mayoral primary. This is in contrast to Charlie Rangel, who’s just been declared the winner in NY-15 with 53%.

11:38 pm: We’re oddly back where we started in NH-02, where Charlie Bass’ lead over Jen Horn is now 203 votes. Guinta leads Ashooh by 950 votes in NH-01, and Lamontagne’s lead over Ayotte is now less than 4%.

11:36 pm: NY-13 has also been called for Michael Grimm.

11:34 pm: Out in NY-01, Randy Altschuler’s been declared the winner. Charlie Rangel is pulling a surprisingly strong 52% in NY-15, while Matt Doheny clings to a 7-point lead in NY-23.

11:26 pm: More NH precincts slowly trickling in, with Bass slightly padding his margin in NH-02, now up to 400 votes. Ovide’s lead continues to slide, now below 4.5%. Further up the ballot in New York, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice, though the city is now 47% reporting compared to 43% of Lawn Guyland. Joe DioGuardi continues to lead for the right to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand, narrowly leading Malpass in the City, on LI, Upstate, and Westchester.

11:22 pm: DavidNYC at the helm here. I’ve been waiting to write these words since February: The AP has called NY-14 for Carolyn Maloney. All is well in the Silk Stocking district. That is all. Carry on.

11:17 pm: With 88% reporting in NY-01, Altschuler is leading Demos 45-30, with Cox at 24.  This is unfortunate since Altschuler has the Conservative line as well, but cat fud lovers need not worry, as there’ll be Meow Mix afoot regardless in NY-23, as Doheny and Hoffman have split the Independence and Conservative lines. With 64% reporting there, Doheny is up 54-46.

11:13 pm: Back in New York, SSP’s ancestral home, there are a slew of House races to report on. Gary Ackerman has had a surprisingly weak performance in NY-05 floating in the 60’s all night, currently 66-34. Ed Towns has been declared the winner in NY-10, also with a 66-34 margin.

11:10 pm: In New Hampshire, Ovide’s lead over Ayotte continues to thin, as more of the areas outside Ovide’s I-93 strongholds start to report. Charlie Bass’ lead is now 220 votes, but with much left to report.

11:08 pm: Meanwhile, in DC, a few more non-absentee precincts have rolled in, with incumbent Fenty now finding himself in a 59-39 hole.

11:05 pm: Real World update: Sean Duffy’s been called the winner in WI-07 with 67%, while Kevin Powell is getting only 34% against Ed Towns in NY-10.

11:03 pm: It turns out that we’re not the only ones that find Rick Lazio boring and lifeless! The AP calls the GOP Gov nod for Carl “Welfare Prison” Paladino, who now earns the right to get his ass handed to him by Andrew Cuomo. Lazio, of course, still keeps the Conservative ballot line…haven’t we had enough Cat Fud tonight?

11:01 pm: These New Hampshire precincts trickle in mighty slowly, but they sure pack a punch. Charlie Bass is now only leading Jen Horn by 202 votes or 1.2% in NH-02. Ovide Lamontagne continues to maintain a slight edge over Kelly Ayotte, though she’s closed to within 5%.

10:58 pm: In the westernmost state tonight, Wisconsin, the GOP Governor’s nod’s been called for Scott Walker, who’s now leading Mark Neumann 56-41 with 37% reporting. In the House races, Sean Duffy has 67% in WI-07; Reid Ribble has 51% in WI-08.


260 thoughts on “NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4”

  1. Anti-Equality NY St Senator Bill Stachowski has conceded in his primary fight to TIm Kennedy, who I believe is pro-marriage equality.

    Also, Shirley Huntley is at 58% against her pro-equality challenger.

  2. Closed the gap to 42-37, or 2100 votes, with that last delivery of votes. Only 23% in, still time for this to go either way, and it could be a blowout for one of them by the time they finish counting next year.

    If the Republicans haven’t counted all the ballots by November 2nd, is Hodes the winner?

  3. That would be another improvement for D chances that can be attributed to R’s nominating weaker candidates.  

  4. Why is GOP turnout so pathetically low in New York State? For example, it looks like only 30,000 Republicans showed up in NY-01, which is worse than some districts in MA which are much more Democratic. Is there a closed primary, or just absolute lack of enthusiasm despite so many contested Republican primaries?

  5. Ive been a campaign volunteer at a polling place at closing.  My job was to get the results so the city council campaign could calculate a win/lose and know what to speech to give 45 minutes after polls closed.  After these people called in the numbers to the SoS, they gave them to us and we called them into the campaign.

    So what gives on vote counting taking so long.  Shouldnt it just take a quick computer tally and a phone call?

  6. ….and my crazy trifecta will be triumphant.

    Hopefully Palladino can do for the NY GOP what Fieger did for the Michigan Democratic Party.

  7. He’s third everywhere, even on his home turf (Nassau County). It looks to me like DioGuardi’s likely to prevail here, which might well be for the best. (For the GOP, that is.) DioGuardi’s feisty and has an OK resume. He just doesn’t have the money to compete, which Malpass (a less feisty guy) has.  

  8.  Lamontagne is losing his lead even in Rockingham and Hillsborough counties which had their first votes strongly for him? I do not think it was early votes because those would favor Ayotte.  

  9. can an entire political party seek therapy? Things are really getting out of hand with the cats on the other side of the aisle. I’m no longer convinced that they wont nominate Palin in 2012. Or Gingrich. Or the Syphillis Virus itself. I mean, why not cut out the middle-man, and nominate the inspiration for their 2010 slate, instead of trying to find someone who can speak for it? But it sure as f$ck be Mitt Romney.  

  10. Horn is essentially tied with Bass right now on the strength of big wins in just 2 municipalities: Nashua and Hudson, a suburb next door. Bass is winning everywhere else, including a key win in Concord, and the remaining towns are similar to what Bass is winning now: small, rural, Yankee, and less Tea Party friendly (I want to say “more moderate” but the m-word is getting harder to say.) Once Grafton and Sullivan are in, I think Bass will open up a lead.

  11. and light her wheel chair on fire. Are you kidding me?  The polls closed at 4 PM here (west coast) and its 8 PM now, with only 33.6% OF THE VOTE COUNTED?!?! ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?!!?!

  12. She has been increasingly inching up since the initial numbers came in, and if it keeps looking like this, I think she wins.

    Its just horrible that we still have 60% of the votes uncounted (or reported), so Ovide may come in with a late surge, and I may not see it because I will be asleep.  I’m going to remind myself not to get invested in any of NH’s primaries anymore, it’s just too painful to watch.

  13. Without anything really up in the air anymore, I’m gonna go to sleep and, hopefully, wake up to find that DE royally fucked up (Even more than they already have) and they accidentally counted all O’Donnell votes for Castle and all Caslte votes for O’Donnell. 😛

  14. Since she is doing being a dumb bitch on American Idol maybe she will have some time to campaign for Joe?  

  15. That could be a good baseline for what Lamontagne would need to win.  I have searched the internets. but have not found anything at all.

  16. Eric Schneiderman 186,017 34%

    Kathleen M. Rice 168,353 31%

    This one will finish real tight.

    Only slightly over half of Nassau Co has reported and it’s going better than 2 to 1 for Rice.

  17. Democrats here will be happy to know that Sue Bump defeated Guy Glodis, who many SSPer’s dislike, for state Auditor. She’ll face off against GOPer Mary Connaughton in November.

    I was dead wrong on both primaries in MA-10. William Keating, from the northern part of the district defeated Cape Codder Rob O’Leary for the Democratic nomination, and young Cape Codder Jeff Perry crushed former State Treasurer Joe Malone for the GOP nomination.

    That race is setting up to be interesting. Keating is Norfolk DA, the same job Rep. Delahunt had before he was elected, so he can certainly win despite not being from the Cape. Perry had no trouble brushing aside civil liberties accusations in the primary and is in decent shape for the general if he can brush them aside again.

    Finally, in my home district, local lawyer Marty Lamb defeated four other Some Dudes and will fave Jim McGovern. He’s notable because he calls his plan to reduce the deficit the “Lamb Chop.” Genius. The seat is safe for McGovern.

  18. About Sara Palin might be speaking Norwegian: Yes, we have exported most of our right wing psycos to you, and now live in social democratic heaven with universal health care and other perks. But Sara Palin is not a product of us. She is home grown.  

  19. My only hope is that she gets 39% and Ovide gets 37%.

    If that happens, I will have predicted a primary right on the money.  As it stands now, this is totally possible.

  20. So I’m out, it has been stuck at 79.7% of precincts reporting for 30 minutes.

    Hopefully Lamontagne surges the last 20% and is ahead in the morning, or at least closed the gap ala Louis Wyman and John A. Durkin (in true New Hampshire style!)

  21. 1. States with no surprizes, where “everything went according to predictions” – Maryland, Wisconsin.

    There were some intersting details, including some anti-incumbet tendencies in legislative races in Maryland, but that’s almost all…

    2. States with some (but not many) intersting races – New York, Rhode Island, Massachusetts.

    After close Democratic primary in MA-10 there will be interesting general, but Perry, while very popular among conservative activists, is, probably, too conservative for this Democratic-leaning district, so Keating is favored.

    A somewhat interesting campaign may happen in RI-01: Cicilline is obviously favored, but votes in primary were split rather badly, so Loughlin may get a chance (yes, i know very well that this is generally Democratic district, but Republican represented it before Kennedy, so it’s possible for republican to win here, though it’s obviously difficult). There were some rather strong anti-incumbent tendencies in legislative primaries (naturally – more among Democrats) as well.

    In New York reformers beat 2 “anti-gay” state Senators in Democratic primary, but failed to beat 2 another and Rangel, so results in that aspect are  mixed. Schneiderman’s victory for AG makes that “slightly better then mixed” for reformers, probably. But Rangel, Towns and some other “ethically impure” congressmen survived. I didn’t expected the size of Paladino’s victory, but that’s, probably, has only theoretical importance… Republicans generally nominated “better” (though not much better) candidates among possible in Congressional races, so it will be intersting to follow some races (NY-19, and, may be, NY-01 and 13) in November in addition to NY-29, 24 and, may be, 20, but, most likely, not 23.

    3. Intersting results – New Hampshire. For time being it seemed to me that it will go Delaware’s way and nominate absolute crazies like Lamontagne (that’s still possible, he loses to Ayotte by less then 1000 votes and there are still some votes to count, but still – unlikely) and Horn in NH-02, but Bass was able to prevail, so, probably, there is still some shades of sanity among Republicans in some states…

    4. Crazy state. That title obviously belongs to Delaware. By nominating ultracrazy for Senate and almost as crazy for DE-01, republicans, most likely, gave both Senate and House (with Rollins some intrigue would still exist, though Carney would be favored just the same) to Democrats on the plate… This state reported first, so i even had a proposal for Republicans: “merge your party into Constitution party” for a while))))

  22. take advantage of O’Donnell’s opposition to masturbation.

    anyone know what % of the DE electorate is single?

  23. It appears that one County in New Hampshire, Stafford County, is bucking the trend in The Granite State, and decided to report all of its precincts.

    In other news, New Hampshire is still counting the votes to see who won the state in the 1992 presidential election.

  24. 1) Andrew Cuomo will be New York’s next Governor, and 2) the debate between he and Carl Paladino should be the must-see political debate of the season.  

  25. Those are the most conservative counties in the state, and Ovide needs them in order to win. In fact, almost all of small-town and rural NH is still out there, and I have no idea who that’s good for. I might place a finger on the scale for Lamontagne at this point just because I expected Ayotte to do much better in suburban Rockingham.

  26. 6/9 precincts have now come in from the city of Nashua, and that’s what has allowed Horn to close in on Bass, as well as helping Ayotte catch up a bit to Lamontagne.

    For reasons of geography, Nashua is delivering very solid margins to both Ayotte and Horn. So, ironically, in this case Lamontagne and Horn are drawing from a different set of strengths.

  27. It seems much of Ayotte’s strength has been from the less populated counties to the north and west, while Lamontagne is ahead in the more populated Manchester area/Boston exurbs corridor. I guess we’ll have to see what happens when more of the state reports…

  28. Im looking towards a big year in gay rights for the 2011 state legislative agenda and a gay marriage win in 2011 would just be FABULOUS.  (Fuck fantastic.)

  29. In most small towns, they aren’t using machines, they use paper ballots.

    And then the results aren’t officially reported, even once they’re counted. Instead, it is up to AP to track down results from each town — there is no central state government reporting mechanism on election night.  

  30. I just have the politico page open in another tab, a and I look over every one in a while, that needle is barely budging in the total % area.  It’s really pathetic.

  31. That’s my hometown. I went to high school with her son. She’s very popular there, and there are signs everywhere for her

  32. Easier to say retrospectively, of course, now that more votes are in, but it seems that Nashua actually delivered for Lamontagne, not Ayotte.

    According to the Politico map (http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010/NH), Lamontagne won Hillsborough county by 42% to 38%, and Nashua’s by far the biggest town in that county, right?

    That seems a narrow lead, but it’s actually Lamontagne’s best result in the state, at this point. The only other county he leads in is Rockingham, and there it’s only by a sliver. So if Lamontagne does still pull this out somehow (after a recount? One can hope..), it seems it would actually be thanks to Nashua!

  33. Kennedy is closely associated with Steve Pigeon, and was one of the instigators of the coup that handed control of the Erie County Legislature to the Republican minority and few Democrats looking for patronage. So don’t trust him to be loyal.

    Also GOP has a strong candidate in Assemblyman Jack Quinn who is the son of the popular fmr Congressman who goes by the same name.

    Not sure who got the Indy and WFP line in this race but I think it is Stachowski.

  34. Sullivan, Grafton, Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, and Strafford are all barely in. If those counties are going mostly for Ovide, it’s goodnight for Ayotte. If she’s winning them, she’s right back in this.

  35. Between NY and NJ last year (not to mention Maine) I was seriously depressed about same-sex marriage.  NY, MD, and RI seem promising though.

    Is this off-topic?  Probably.  Apologies in advance.

  36. I was just shocked that Randy Altschuler is leading his primary comfortably with almost 90% counted and yet has fewer than 10,000 votes. I had no idea there were so few Republicans in even the competitive areas of NY.

  37. New Hampshire will still be counting when you wake up!

    Only half kidding. Are they this bad with their nationally-covered presidential primary too? I remember the networks calling it for McCain and Clinton around 10 PM in 2008.

  38. I’m going to feel like fucking hell in the morning.  The shave and shower and coffee will be more important than ever.

  39. The towns simply count the results (in most cases paper ballots counted by hand), post the numbers outside the town hall, and send the results to the SoS the next day.

    So on election night, the AP tries to set up a system to get the results reported from each town — but it is an extremely inefficient system that depends on AP getting the town clerk to call in the results to them (or for AP to call the clerks and track down the results).

  40. There are no Hoffman strongholds except Fulton County, where he got 52% and has completely reported. The big counties that have yet to report are in Doheny’s favor. There is one county that hasn’t reported, but it very probably won’t play a big enough factor.

  41.  It has not been the best for my preferred candidates in New York. Carolyn Maloney should have lost, Dohney is winning though and I hope Malpass wins the primary although it is not looking too good.

  42. But I saw that Anti-Masturbation video she did in the 90’s, and she was pretty cute back then. Don’t know what happened, but these days, she isn’t that cute.

  43. I was thinking more of a chubbier Julia Louis-Dreyfuss.

    I’m sure she loved Seinfeld’s “The Contest” episode, where they try to abstain from masturbation. Coincidentally, one of Elaine’s lines in that episode was “I’m queen of the castle.”  

  44. His politics might’ve been Rockefeller Republican, but the man was someone you could respect.  30 years of service to Delaware and he get’s thrown out by hyper partisans.  He was going to be the one Republican I wouldn’t have minded in the Senate (mostly since I expected him to retire in 2014), but, looking forward, I think Dems have an incredible candidate in Chris Coons and the doom and gloom narrative just got significantly more implausible.

  45. If Hodes can’t take advantage of the opportunity of having Lamontagne to run against, then a recount won’t help him.

    Lamontagne is a very far right perennial loser, easy to get voters to turn against him and make it a “choice” election.  I don’t care that PPP shows him doing as well as Ayotte vs. Hodes in an early September poll, no one has laid a glove on Lamontagne yet and that’s the only reason he’s doing well.  That will change if he wins tonight and everyone fast will be refamiliarized with Lamontagne’s ideological extremism which is more out of step in NH today than a decade ago, when even then he was a bridge too far.

  46. But not over it. There’s definitely an electoral horse race aspect to this issue.

    Regarding Maryland, we’d need an O’Malley win and no significant losses in the Senate, where conservatives (Dem and GOP alike) might be able to filibuster any pro-equality legislation.  

    Of course Ehrlich would veto any pro-equality bill that gets out of the General Assembly.

    While O’Malley is not AFAIK committed to anything beyond civil unions, if he’s looking at another run for anything (Senate or President) in the future, alienating the LGBT community and their allies could be a costly move (especially in terms of fundraising) in a contested Dem primary cycle a few years from now.  

  47. Now go spend all those funds earmarked for Delaware in West Virginia, Mr. Cornyn. Impress us there an I’ll forgive you for letting this happen. Maybe.

  48. If O’Donnell is so against sexuality publicly, it could be akin to Larry Craig, and Ted Haggard being so staunchly against homosexuality.

  49. Also, Snooki is more qualified to serve as United States senator and would be a more viable candidate against Chris Coons.

  50. As much as I am creeped out at O’Donnell winning, I think Castle deserves more blame than Cornyn. He ignored O’Donnell, dispite the evidence over months of primaries in other states as to what can happen when you don’t pay attention to your primary.

  51. DC’s Democratic registration is like 85% of the voting population Obama won 94-6. The Democratic primary in DC is the election. Fenty knows its political suicide to do that.  

  52. In many places, more rural = more conservative, but that’s not really how NH works.

    The northern and western parts of the state, even in those towns still voting GOP at higher rates, are relatively friendly to a more moderate strain of Republicanism. The biggest Democratic gains have come from people in those towns realizing that the increasingly strident GOP doesn’t necessarily serve them well.

    The hardest of the hardcore Union-Leader types are often found in the commuter towns and burbs of Manchester and Nashua like Salem and Derry and Bedford and Merrimack. (Those towns are mostly in Rockingham or Hillsborough Counties.)

    Also, don’t Ovide Lamontagne is a very French-Canadian name. Manchester in particular is a town where that’s a great name for a candidate, much like being named O’Connell in many towns in Massachusetts. (Of course, Ayotte is a French-Canadian name too, but Ovide’s been around longer.)  

  53. But given just how bad Paladino is, even if it was a sure loser either way it really does say a lot about what the Tea Party is about

  54. The GOP rank-and-file loved Lazio, but he had no money. Paladino has boatloads of dough to drop, but the GOP base isn’t thrilled. In fact, he’s most popular among conservative Independents.

  55. In Hillsborough, Lamontagne initially was up big because the first town to report was his hometown of Manchester (which counts by machine and reports very fast).

    Eventually the city of Nashua (Ayotte’s hometown, also in Hillsborough county) chimed in with most of their results, and that helped her close the margin in the county and statewide.

    But it is all town by town in NH — in these counties, one town may be suburban, another rural, another more urban. They can vary greatly economically, culturally and politically — even when they are geographically close to each other.

  56. Also worth noting, Bass is winning big up north (the working class town of Berlin for example).

    Once Keene, Hanover, Lebanon, etc all come it, it would be shocking if Horn can find votes other places to make it up….

  57. I always forget which towns are in which district down near Nashua/Manchester, but Horn’s big hope are that she racks up the numbers in Salem, Windham, Amherst, Atkinson, Hollis, and Brookline in addition to the aforementioned Nashua and Hudson.

    Bass is going to clean up in the North Country, Upper Valley, and Greater Concord regions and at least break even in the Monadnock area.  

  58. What you say is true for the communities in Coos, Grafton, Sullivan, and Cheshire. But Carroll and especially Belknap are the kinds of places where the Tea Party has always been visible and the Union-Leader is widely read. (In fact, The Weirs Times, which is a very popular conservative weekly in Belknap, has been one of Ovide’s biggest backers for over a year now.)

    And a great point on the importance of the Franco-American vote. Might be helpful to Lamontagne if he makes it to the general: He can make it a choice between a local Franco guy and a Jewish lawyer from New York City (obviously, he doesn’t want to make an issue of Hodes being Jewish, but you have to admit that he has an odd profile for someone running in WASPy New Hampshire.)

  59. I see Ayotte can not break the 38%, including all the polls. And this is not a good percentage for a “rising star”.

    We will see.

  60. It may have been Castle’s fault, but Cornyn is the boss, and he has to learn from this and move on. In retrospect, he should have diagnosed this earlier, or tried to sweet-talk O’Donnell into dropping out when Castle got in last October.

  61. The only problem is I would bet many of these tea party folks would become more determined to run if they were tried to be pushed out by the NRSC.

  62. All the evidence said O’Donnell couldn’t come close to Castle, let alone win.  And these teabaggers got pasted in a bunch of other states.  Mark Kirk never came close to losing his primary.  Dan Coats faced much more credible challengers than O’Donnell and still won.

    The GOP base is just far more insane than anyone ever imagined, and sometimes you don’t know what you don’t know until something happens to tell you.

  63. There are almost no Republicans in Hanover, and there aren’t all that many in Keene or Lebanon either.

    What GOP voting there is in these towns will be strong for Bass, but he may not get as much help from those towns as one might initially assume.  

  64. Oh, wait, they already DID that!

    Somehow, I don’t think anyone in NH thinks there’s anything “odd” about Hodes.  Liberal Jews get elected all over the place.  Hell, in Scandinavian Minnesota neither party ever runs a Senate nominee who ISN’T Jewish!

  65. But the small towns around them

    Those regions will be strong for Bass, and their are enough Republican votes there for him to win. If you look at the town by town results (on the AP link), you can see that Horn is only winning in a few towns (Nashua & around), while Bass is winning around Concord, the entire Connecticut River valley, the Mondonack, and northern NH.

    Unless she has some unanticipated vote base out there, Horn can’t catch up…

  66. Vermont already has Bernie Sanders, and New England as a whole has so many ethnic groups that there are Irish, Italians, Jews, French, Latinos, and mixed ethnics elected all over the place. He just has to run a good race, hope for some grumblings on the GOP side, and work his ass off to get his vote out.  

  67. could acctuly win city wide in D.C. Trust me DC residents recongnize the Democratic primary as the general election for mayor.  

  68. …the seat now held by Franken has not had a non-Jewish major party nominee in my entire adult life.  It was Wellstone vs. Boschwitz in ’90 and ’96, Wellstone vs. Coleman in ’02 (I know Mondale filled in at the end, but Wellstone was the Dem of choice until he was killed), and Coleman vs. Franken in ’08.

  69. This is pretty rare, the state and the AP must’ve figured no one would care about this primary as it wasn’t supposed to be too close.

    Maybe New Hampshire should join the 20th century and have each town report it’s votes to the state. Or at least use circa 1890 census punch card machine things to make counting faster.

    Here in CT the towns also do all the counting, and we have tons of little towns in the boonies. They all have to report their results to the Secretary of State as soon as they are finished, and the AP can go there to get the results. If Alaska and Arctic Canada can do it on time, why can’t NH.  

  70. I used to live in Fenty’s parents’ neighborhood, Mount Pleasant.  Fenty is a strong Democrat, he wouldn’t become a Republican no matter where he lived.

  71. Maybe Coleman will try it again in 2014. I actually thought for a moment that Erik Paulsen in MN-03 (another possible Franken challenger) was also Jewish, but alas, he’s Lutheran.  

  72. Here’s hoping a Vicious Recount battle occurs.

    If a recount were to take place, it would probably take a week to complete.

  73. I am heartened by the fact that Lamontagne’s best county, Hillsborough (where both of them live), is over 80% in. He still leads by a small amouth in Rockingham, Merrimack, and Belknap, though, which are all less than half in. Ayotte leads in the other 6 counties, which are collectively about 40-45% in. Her best showings are all in the western part of the state, which is mostly small-town and moderate, and votes Democratic in statewide elections.

  74. Says that a Paladino win actually helps GOP House challengers upstate (i.e., NY-20 & NY-23 & NY-24).  Paladino is from upstate and will probably perform better in these areas than Lazio would have.  

  75. There really aren’t many urban areas in New Hampshire, now that Nashua and Manchester are all in. Concord may fit that term, and I don’t know if that’s in or not, but other than that it’s pretty much small towns and some Boston exurbs.

  76. That’s Manchester, Nashua, and Concord, in order of size. What’s left to report are five medium-sized cities and a whole bunch of small-town Yankee goodness. Those five medium sized cities are: Keene (Ayotte will win), Laconia (Ovide should win), and the eastern cities of Portsmouth, Rochester, and Dover, where the election could be decided.

  77. ..declared himself independent. What exists of the moderate-conservative and/or non-Democrat vote in DC would nearly unanimously support Fenty given a choice between him and Vincent Gray.  

    It might not have been enough to get him over the top, but he’d have had a better chance.  

  78. helped O’Donnell was the fact that Castle’s approvals among the base were under water and the Tea Party Express + Sarah Palin swooped in to deliver the final death blow. Coons shouldn’t sleep walk this, but he’s the favorite now. (Expect Rasmussen to come up with some BS poll showing O’Donnell within striking distance or a little ahead of Coons tomorrow.)

  79. After Bennett lost, Greyson lost, Coats nearly lost, Norton lost, there was PLENTY of reason to be nervous.

    McCain’s costly and close call and Murkowski’s loss should be an ‘oh Fuck’ moment.


  80. Ayotte 40-38. Just going by the counties with more than one precinct and there is nothing at all reporting from Claremont, Dover, Franklin, Keene, Laconia, Portsmouth and Rochester. One precinct of four reporting in Berlin and he is up 50-37. We are talking small numbers though.

  81. I know at least a few of the MD-Gov polls also polled that race and found her winning by a landslide. Mikulski is pretty invulnerable in Maryland.

  82. And liberals make up 46% of the city (according to the exit polls) and moderates are almost as loyal to the Democrats as liberals are (they broke 92-7 for Obama compared to 98-1 for liberals).

    Any gain Fenty would get from non-Democrats and conservative Democrarts would’ve been cancelled out and then some by losing loyal Democrats.

  83. The partisan registration advantage is too great. To fail at assembling a governing coalition within the Democratic Party in DC is to fail at assembling any viable governing coalition citywide here. Independents, and even erstwhile Republicans here, register as Democrats just to have a say in the decisive primary.

    Moreover, if it weren’t already dramatically marginalized, the GOP has been battered even further here in recent years. It used to be that there were two elected Republicans who served at-large on the city council (for the sole reason that DC’s home rule statute mandates minority party representation in that body). One, the openly gay David Catania, left the party in 2004 in protest of national Republicans’ demagoguery of the same-sex marriage issue.  The other, the moderate-to-liberal Carol Schwartz (first elected in 1985), lost her ballot spot to the much more conservative Patrick Mara, who in turn went on to lose by a wide margin to independent Michael Brown, son of the late DNC Chair and Clinton-era Commerce Secretary Ron Brown. Thus, for the first time in over twenty years, the Republicans have been wholly and materially cut out of the legislative process in DC.  

  84. Rice probably only picks up 8k more votes in Nassau and that’s it. Westchester is the only other place with lots of precincts and it’s going with Schneiderman.  

  85. I think Schneiderman has it, but it will be close. He should get a few more thousand over her in Manhattan and the Bronx, and Westchester is only about 2/3 in where he has a 33-20 lead. Suffolk is in, so Rice needs Nassau to continue coming in heavy for her, though she has done very well in Queens (about tied) with more to count. Strangely, Buffalo may hold the key for Rice, as she’s up in Erie County 37-19 with about a fifth left to count.  

  86. everywhere outside of Nassau. There isn’t enough votes for her to catch him. Sorry but he has probably won.  

  87. Kennedy the pro marriage equality Democratic candidate is also endorsed by the Conservative Party of NY and will also have their line in November.

    Either way this has the potential to be a GOP NYS Senate pick up in November.

  88. the mods are just too old to get it. now of course we have to figure out why palin twitters as poorly as a drunk teenager…is she THAT happy o’donnell won?

  89. spot. I think if the ad buyer/campaign is promised a certain audience number or points and the ratings don’t meet that number, the station/network makes up for it by running the ad again. At least they do that for companies. If I was a candidate, I wouldn’t want that.  

  90. Yeah but even make-goods are subject to hard kill dates.  Like McDonald’s can get into a lot of trouble for running a commercial saying they are giving something away after the contest has ended and a winner chosen (very large fines), so they have hard kill dates that trump every other piece of data on the account.  Perhaps Schneiderman hoped he’d win and wouldn’t mind the make-good to jump start his general election campaign.

    I saw an Ovide commercial on NECN after midnight last night…

  91. Yeah but even make-goods are subject to hard kill dates.  Like McDonald’s can get into a lot of trouble for running a commercial saying they are giving something away after the contest has ended and a winner chosen (very large fines), so they have hard kill dates that trump every other piece of data on the account.  Perhaps Schneiderman hoped he’d win and wouldn’t mind the make-good to jump start his general election campaign.

    I saw an Ovide commercial on NECN after midnight last night…

  92. How does that work?  Is he conservative on other issues, or is the Conservative Party just not particularly against same-sex marriage?

  93. I could see her and Joe Miller kicking it up watching the results roll in over a few beers and caribou burgers celebrating another far-right hijacking.  Remember…don’t drink and tweet!

  94. But Ayotte is leading by about 900 votes.

    Also, I recommend Jeffmd look at politicos numbers instead of the AP’s, Politico is farther in than the AP for some reason.

  95. The two counties with the most left to report–Sullivan and Coos–are Ayotte strongholds, but sparsely populated. Earlier, I predicted it would come down to the 5 medium-sized cities of Keene, Laconia, Portsmouth, Rochester, and Dover. The first two of those are in, and Ayotte won both. She leads in Portsmouth and Rochester, which are parially in, and Dover’s still out but Ayotte is winning the surrounding towns in Strafford County. Unless there’s more Lamontagne-friendly precincts still out there in Hillsborough and Rockingham, the only tow places he still leads, I don’t see him closing the gap.

    That’s it for me tonight. They’ll be plenty to discuss in the morning!

  96. Of the Dem field, I thought Schneiderman was handily the weakest. I think his Sharpton statement, coupled with the hit-and-run, will make this an unusually-competitive showdown. Donovan will definitely win Independents, and he needs 15% of Dems to claim victory.

  97. I had a friend prosecuted by her office for made-up domestic violence charges. He lost his house and was prosecuted without any evidence. He had to plead guilty because they put an order of protection on him from getting into his house.

  98. Momentum was just too late. Probably not even a week, just another day or so. Big miss from the TXP people.

  99. Dan Donovan is the Staten Island District Attorney. He could be formidable candidate especially in a weird anti-Albany year.  

  100. I think the Post sent reporters to each polling place and individually read the results. Their numbers are very exact.

    GRAY WINS — 128/141 precincts — Gray 48,924; Fenty 40,746 — early voting still to come #votedc #dcvote

    22 minutes ago via Seesmic Web

    GRAY WINS — 128/141 precincts — Gray 48,924; Fenty 40,746

    24 minutes ago via Seesmic Web


  101. Maybe Ayotte is bloodied enough for Hodes to slip into a win.  I don’t have high hopes for that though, while PPP says Lamontagne and Ayotte were polling the same against Hodes, I think it honestly was because no one had been attacking Ovide, showing his glaring weakness.

    Hodes better be ready to take down Ayotte is all I have to say, and it is going to be an uphill battle.

  102. This would be a gain anyway so it would be a bonus. Delaware becoming a likely hold is far more important.

  103. Unless campaign law forbids it, I’m wondering where there was ever the conventional wisdom that Hodes would be better off with LaMontagne.  Look at what Reid did to Lowden to get Angle as his opponent; this should’ve been the modus operandi for the Hodes campaign in this last week.  The PPP teaser seems to indicate that, either LaMontagne was equally leading strongly over Hodes, or that Ayotte’s been reduced significantly from this whole debacle.  

    Dems have reason to think they can still pick NH up, especially after a raucous primary like this.  It’d be interesting to see whether or not LaMontagne or the two also-rans refuse to endorse Ayotte, which would be fairly significant in a race like this where Ayotte was nowhere near 50% of the primary vote.  A divided base, some more spotlight on dirt that Ayotte might have, and some strong base turnout, and this race jumps from Likely R to Lean R/Tossup.

  104. Then again, Raese is a self funder too. Perhaps Washington, Wisconsin, or California would be the best choices, but I’m assuming the NRSC is already ready to go there.

  105. I wonder what Sarah Palin will think of this…. a Mama Grizzly getting cut off by the boys in Washington who run the NRSC…. Maybe she can try and choke off their donations and re-route them through the highly-effective SarahPAC.

  106. It’s getting close to election day, they set their narrative, now they have to go to real mode.  It will probably be a little tighter than PPP’s but still show a Coons lead.

  107. Sensible voters are opposed to the dysfunctional government there, and it’s a good thing they’re acting on it.

    As for me, I look forward to finding out more about Donovan.

  108. I don’t think Ronald Machtley was as conservative as John Loughlin. to say nothing of how RI-01 is probably more fed up with national Republicans now than it was back in the day. (Btw, Patrick Kennedy first won the seat in 1994 of all years!)

    I voted for Cicilline in the primary, and I’ll do so again in the general. Admittedly my perspective is skewed being from the most liberal part of RI-01 but I just don’t see any support for Loughlin, anywhere.

    As for NY, I thought the only state senators who lost were Espada and Stachowski. Stachowski was anti-gay but Espada voted for marriage equality. is there another “anti-gay” state senator who lost?

  109. …had Coons up by 11, 47-36, on O’Donnell.  If they rig a poll now with O’Donnell doing better, they hurt their reputation even among their subscriber base.

  110. …I recently stopped even checking in on Politico except once or twice a week.  I got tired of their “analysis” which is habitually poor.

    This does really jump the shark in a whole new way, but it’s a more extreme version of much of what they do.

    I read this Smith piece last night and just shook my head.  No matter what happens, it’s good for Republicans and bad for Democrats.

  111. The rank-and-file loves Lazio, but he had no money. On the flip side, the state GOP is very weary of Paladino, but he’s got dough to spare. Also, Paladino will run a MUCH more negative, bloody campaign vs. Cuomo. He can pour tens of millions into the airwaves with ease.

  112. Sadly a lot of these 3rd party endorsements in NY are less about ideology  and more about how can pay off the 3rd party more.

    I am not familiar with how he got it but my guess is that Kennedy as a member of the Erie County Legislature sent a lot of pork to people connected with the Conservative Party & hence built a good relationship with them.

  113. …specifically in RI. it’s not the governor that’s a problem (both Caprio and Chafee are pro-equality, although Douchebag, I mean Carcieri, isn’t). the problem will be the legislature. however there are signs of hope such as when openly gay Gordon Fox succeeded conservadem William Murphy as Speaker of the House.

  114. The chance of that grows, all else being equal, with an expanded majorities and, where appropriate, primary challengers to incumbent Democrats by pro-equality Democrats. Your first targets would obviously be in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties.  

  115. Nashua is about ~87,000 people; Hillsborough Co is about ~380,000. Less than 1/4 of the population; it’s like trying to extrapolate the voting patterns of Rochester, NY from the Monroe County, NY results. Ayotte actually won 48-30 in Nashua according to the AP.

    (Interesting: Harts Location, one of the first two towns to vote normally along with Dixville Notch, has not reported yet. Sadly, not looking good for Ovide.)

  116. It was an attempt at snark. Perhaps the new “Good news for McCain!” could be “Bad news for Cuomo!”

  117. Democrat – 46%

    GOP – 29%

    Independent – 25%

    Cuomo – 93/20/59 = 64%

    Paladino – 7/80/41 = 36%

    My hunch is Lazio isn’t a real factor on the Conservative line – think Andrew Cuomo when he kept the Liberal Party line in ’02.

    Also, predix on the two U.S. Senate showdowns…

    Gillibrand – 90/13/55 = 59%

    DioGuardi – 10/87/45 = 41%

    Keep an eye on this one, though. DioGuardi ran a tight, disciplined primary campaign, closed with a strong TV ad, and played to the center in the primary debate (he said he would’ve voted against going into Iraq, has questions about Afghanistan, wants to focus on environmental issues).

    Schumer – 93/23/64 = 66%

    Townsend – 7/77/36 = 34%

    …and forget this one.

  118. I know he’s still kinda unknown, but Coons should be posting better marks than 72% among Dems and 42% among Indies. This might get my head chopped off, but, at least for now, I’d rate this only Likely Dem.

    *runs for the hills.

  119. in 1978: Clifford Case would get reelected easily, but conservatives defeated him in primary and then lost a seat to democrat Bill Bradley

  120. Maybe O’Donnell will get a bump, but it could also be that Coons will since many Castle voters, previously undecied in a Coons-O’Donnell matchup, might move off the fence to Coons.

  121. weren’t you also saying until a few weeks ago that O’Donnell would have trouble breaking 25%, or something? 😛

    that being said, I agree Safe Dem is presumptuous for a non-incumbent, even in this case. DE is a blue state and O’Donnell is living in her own Looney Tunes world, but you can never assume in politics.

  122. But I’m surprised that O’Donnell is actually semi-competitive with indies. That should change, but it’s something to keep an eye on.  

  123. Everyone involved pretty much said fuck it after deciding their death would be over before the counting is done.

  124. I’d rather have precious (as in not a lot available) GOP money go to a race they have the smallest chances of winning than go to competive races.  Hey NRSC, make sure to spend lots of money in New York.

  125. More resources to O’Donnell means fewer to the likes of Burr, Angle, Paul, Rossi, Fiorina, Rubio, Ayotte (it would appear), Portman, Blunt, etc.

  126. The portion of Delaware above the C&D Canal (i.e. where more than half the population lives) is in the Philadelphia media market.

    I guess Cornyn made the calculation that it would be more costly in terms of fundraising to anger the true believers by cutting O’Donnell loose than to spend whatever it is they end up spending on her.  

  127. “The Democrats’ indecision reflects the fact that Republicans are on offense in at least 12 Democrat-held states and we are leading in the polls in seven of those 12 states.”

    Obviously the latter category includes only four definite GOP poll leads IMO – ND, AR, IN and PA. Before yesterday I counted “offense” in 13 states. Those being the four previously mentioned plus DE, CO, NV, IL, WI, CA, WA, WV and CT. So either Cornyn is just (rightly) assuming a win in ND or they have written one of those off. So maybe the “endorsement” is just window dressing to satisfy the base.

  128. That we have an actual (though not literal) Sacrificial Lamb?  

    I’ve been on Cape for a while and Perry just had so much more organization than Malone, plus he had Brown and Romney in his corner.  Malone had actual radio ads with Reagan endorsing him from the grave (clearly from a race he’d run decades ago) which was super creepy.  

  129. And, I predicted Castle all the way through election night. I’m just speculating, based on the PPP poll, which proved awfully accurate in projecting the primary results.

  130. I misread this map of Hillsborough county: http://www.city-data.com/count… – must have looked with square eyes cause I thought it showed Manchester falling outside the country, which would leave Nashua easily the largest town in it. But upon closer inspection only a small part of Manchester is outside the county.

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