NH-Gov: Lynch Has Double-Digit Edge on Stephen

Public Policy Polling (9/11-12, likely voters, 7/22-25 in parentheses):

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (51)

John Stephen (R): 39 (34)

Undecided: 10 (15)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

Despite the fact that the odds are probably against the Dems in the Senate race, and that they face down-to-the-wire blockbusters in both House retentions (and also are probably at risk of losing the state Senate because of retirements), there’s one relatively bright spot for Granite State Dems: Governor John Lynch, seeking an unusual fourth term.

He’s kind of on the cusp of the race being competitive and not, though: he’s over 50 in PPP’s first post-primary poll, but up 12 on a more credible opponent than the last couple he’s faced (former state HHS director, and losing NH-01 primary candidate in 2008, John Stephen). That’s a somewhat smaller gap than PPP found in July, but bigger than the 11-point gap they had in April, so things have looked pretty stable here all along. The financial race within the race is a dead heat, though: as of pre-primary reports several weeks ago, Lynch had $745K CoH, while Stephen, who’s spent very little so far, has $794K. Given that and the nature of the year, it’s a race worth keeping an eye on.