Some days ago I see here in SSP the new of a new application for every person can rate the senate and house races. Unfortunately they include not the gubernatorial and statewide races. Despite that I get very interested.
If someone know my diaries in DailyKos, can see what I use the same format of poll for give to the people the chance of rate some hypothetical and real races since the first months of 2009.
But while CQ-Politics use the statistical median for give the rate of the mix of people’s votes I use a different system with a numerical traslation of the results. My system shows the little differences between the results of the polls and gives the chance for rank the results of the polls. And is totally simetric.
I think would be interesting apply my little system for rank the house and the senate races by the people’s votes in CQ-Politics polls. Then, here is the rank:
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
— 00.000 —
Safe Republican
— 01.429 —
Likely Republican
— 02.857 —
Leans Republican
— 04.286 —
Toss-Up
— 05.714 —
Leans Democratic
— 07.142 —
Likely Democratic
— 08.571 —
Safe Democratic
— 10.000 —
SENATE RACES
SD
VT-Sen = 09.337
NY-Sen = 09.322
HI-Sen = 09.000
LiD
NY-Sen = 08.242 (s)
WV-Sen = 08.222
MD-Sen = 08.167
OR-Sen = 07.292
LeD
CT-Sen = 06.920
CA-Sen = 06.437
WA-Sen = 05.892
T-U
WI-Sen = 05.555
NV-Sen = 05.302
IL-Sen = 05.270
CO-Sen = 05.037
FL-Sen = 04.445
PA-Sen = 04.337 R gain
LeR
KY-Sen = 04.227
OH-Sen = 04.038
MO-Sen = 03.897
NH-Sen = 03.688
NC-Sen = 03.063
LiR
IN-Sen = 02.518 R gain
DE-Sen = 02.415 R gain
LA-Sen = 02.355
SC-Sen = 01.925
IA-Sen = 01.667
AR-Sen = 01.543 R gain
SR
AZ-Sen = 01.228
ND-Sen = 01.113 R gain
GA-Sen = 01.110
AK-Sen = 00.898
UT-Sen = 00.715
KS-Sen = 00.333
SD-Sen = 00.000
AL-Sen = 00.000
OK-Sen = 00.000
ID-Sen = 00.000
The senate polls gives a so interesting rank with results what are very near of the people think. Still the results of the poll for AK-Sen is not adapted to the Murkowski’s failure in the primary, because the poll keep the votes of the last 30 days.
The republicans would have net gains of 5 senate seats without lose no-one of their old senate seats. A rank of seats changing party following these polls would be:
1. ND-Sen
2. AR-Sen
3. DE-Sen
4. IN-Sen
5. PA-Sen
———
6. CO-Sen
7. IL-Sen
8. NV-Sen
9. FL-Sen
10. WI-Sen
11. KY-Sen
12. WA-Sen
13. OH-Sen
14. MO-Sen
15. NH-Sen
16. CA-Sen
I think these results have inside the “enthusiasm gap” what makes we have very much republicans voting in these polls. Still the game can change in some races (FL, NH, DE) but I think the results are very interesting. The key for have good results in these polls is to have the enough number of votes in every poll for results get influenced by the right votes, and of course is necessary to read well the results with a right method for it. CQ-Politics has the right way for check what think the people but use not a good way for read the results of the polls.
HOUSE RACES
SD
IN-01 = 08.875
MA-02 = 08.770
NY-05 = 08.767
NJ-01 = 08.750
NV-01 = 08.750
MA-01 = 08.667
LiD
IL-01 = 08.570
MA-08 = 08.570
MA-07 = 08.570
WA-01 = 08.542
IL-02 = 08.335
OH-11 = 08.335
MD-04 = 08.335
MD-07 = 08.335
IL-09 = 08.335
NY-17 = 08.335
CT-01 = 08.335
MN-04 = 08.335
MA-09 = 08.335
MD-02 = 08.335
MD-03 = 08.335
MN-08 = 08.335
TX-27 = 08.335
VT-AL = 08.332
MD-05 = 08.332
MN-07 = 08.332
ME-01 = 08.331
ME-02 = 08.331
CA-01 = 08.180
MA-05 = 08.167
MA-04 = 08.140
UT-02 = 08.140
FL-11 = 08.125
CT-03 = 08.125
NY-04 = 08.093
TX-30 = 08.057
MS-02 = 08.057
RI-02 = 08.057
NC-04 = 08.057
NY-09 = 08.057
NY-02 = 08.057
IL-04 = 08.000
WA-07 = 08.000
MO-01 = 08.000
GA-05 = 08.000
NY-07 = 08.000
GA-04 = 08.000
TX-18 = 08.000
NY-08 = 08.000
TX-09 = 08.000
WI-04 = 08.000
IL-05 = 08.000
FL-19 = 08.000
NC-12 = 08.000
GA-13 = 08.000
WI-02 = 08.000
HI-02 = 08.000
IN-07 = 08.000
IL-03 = 08.000
MO-05 = 08.000
TX-16 = 08.000
NC-01 = 08.000
TX-29 = 08.000
TX-15 = 08.000
TX-28 = 08.000
FL-03 = 07.955
CT-02 = 07.955
FL-20 = 07.917
CA-12 = 07.875
MA-03 = 07.865
IA-01 = 07.865
FL-23 = 07.855
OH-10 = 07.855
OK-02 = 07.828
CA-06 = 07.780
CO-01 = 07.780
AL-07 = 07.780
CA-05 = 07.780
AZ-04 = 07.780
CA-10 = 07.780
CO-02 = 07.780
AZ-07 = 07.780
NY-15 = 07.778
OH-09 = 07.708
CA-20 = 07.755
NC-13 = 07.667
WA-09 = 07.667
MO-03 = 07.618
CA-36 = 07.610
MS-04 = 07.560
NY-16 = 07.560
NY-10 = 07.500
NY-11 = 07.500
CA-09 = 07.500
NY-06 = 07.500
CA-33 = 07.500
NJ-10 = 07.500
NY-12 = 07.500
CA-37 = 07.500
NY-14 = 07.500
CA-28 = 07.500
TN-09 = 07.500
CA-13 = 07.500
CA-34 = 07.500
CA-14 = 07.500
NJ-13 = 07.500
CA-17 = 07.500
PA-14 = 07.500
CA-30 = 07.500
CA-38 = 07.500
CA-16 = 07.500
CA-15 = 07.500
NY-28 = 07.500
CA-29 = 07.500
CA-53 = 07.500
CA-27 = 07.500
CA-43 = 07.500
CA-23 = 07.500
CA-39 = 07.500
OH-17 = 07.500
NJ-08 = 07.500
NY-18 = 07.500
CA-51 = 07.500
PA-13 = 07.500
NY-21 = 07.500
NY-22 = 07.500
WA-06 = 07.500
NY-27 = 07.500
TN-05 = 07.500
CA-35 = 07.400
IA-02 = 07.388
WI-03 = 07.383
CA-07 = 07.333
CA-47 = 07.233
VA-08 = 07.222
OR-04 = 07.222
CA-32 = 07.215
NM-01 = 07.215
CA-18 = 07.215
KY-03 = 07.215
MN-01 = 07.215
WV-03 = 07.167
MA-06 = 07.150
NC-07 = 07.150
LeD
AR-04 = 07.112
GA-02 = 07.058
LA-02 = 07.048 D gain
OR-03 = 07.000
NJ-09 = 07.000
NJ-06 = 07.000
RI-01 = 06.945
OR-01 = 06.912
CT-05 = 06.883
GA-12 = 06.875
CA-08 = 06.833
MD-08 = 06.780
WA-02 = 06.712
IL-07 = 06.665
TX-25 = 06.665
CA-31 = 06.660
CO-03 = 06.603
ID-01 = 06.568
NY-13 = 06.503
CO-07 = 06.500
MI-09 = 06.500
VA-11 = 06.452
MI-05 = 06.412
KY-06 = 06.405
MI-14 = 06.365
MI-13 = 06.365
MI-15 = 06.365
MI-12 = 06.365
NY-25 = 06.333
DE-AL = 06.305 D gain
PA-17 = 06.297
IL-17 = 06.290
IL-08 = 06.290
FL-17 = 06.250
VA-03 = 06.250
NC-02 = 06.250
NJ-12 = 06.205
IL-13 = 06.172 D gain
AZ-01 = 06.113
NM-01 = 06.105
NY-20 = 06.073
IN-02 = 06.060
PA-08 = 06.005
CT-04 = 05.967
PA-04 = 05.967
OR-05 = 05.958
IL-12 = 05.920
NC-11 = 05.910
MA-10 = 05.837
FL-22 = 05.827
OH-13 = 05.812
CA-11 = 05.800
NY-01 = 05.740
NY-23 = 05.737
SC-06 = 05.720
T-U
TN-04 = 05.707
PA-10 = 05.705
HI-01 = 05.653 D gain
GA-08 = 05.625
PA-12 = 05.625
VA-09 = 05.613
OH-18 = 05.610
WI-08 = 05.600
AZ-08 = 05.567
OH-15 = 05.550
AZ-05 = 05.518
TX-23 = 05.515
NJ-03 = 05.488
NY-19 = 05.437
IA-03 = 05.343
OH-06 = 05.297
AL-02 = 05.263
PA-01 = 05.250
IL-10 = 05.210 D gain
PA-02 = 05.130
NC-08 = 05.060
MO-04 = 05.018
TX-20 = 05.000
IN-09 = 04.962 R gain
WI-07 = 04.952 R gain
WV-01 = 04.925 R gain
FL-02 = 04.853 R gain
IL-14 = 04.838 R gain
OH-01 = 04.568 R gain
TX-17 = 04.547 R gain
SC-05 = 04.497 R gain
IL-11 = 04.483 R gain
NH-01 = 04.482 R gain
NV-03 = 04.453 R gain
MS-01 = 04.447 R gain
FL-08 = 04.420 R gain
PA-06 = 04.400
MI-07 = 04.372 R gain
PA-03 = 04.362 R gain
IN-08 = 04.323 R gain
MI-01 = 04.297 R gain
LeR
SD-AL = 04.217 R gain
AR-01 = 04.192 R gain
OH-16 = 04.172 R gain
WA-03 = 04.148 R gain
NH-02 = 04.118 R gain
VA-02 = 04.062 R gain
PA-07 = 04.022 R gain
FL-24 = 03.975 R gain
MD-01 = 03.973 R gain
NJ-07 = 03.965
CO-04 = 03.920 R gain
NY-24 = 03.865 R gain
FL-25 = 03.775
NM-02 = 03.628 R gain
VA-05 = 03.622 R gain
KS-03 = 03.598 R gain
TN-08 = 03.537 R gain
PA-11 = 03.522 R gain
ND-AL = 03.312 R gain
OH-12 = 03.120
CA-03 = 03.075
PA-15 = 02.875
LiR
AL-05 = 02.750
NE-02 = 02.730
MN-06 = 02.583
WA-08 = 02.407
IN-03 = 02.405
IL-19 = 02.383
TX-22 = 02.383
CA-45 = 02.362
WI-05 = 02.333
TX-06 = 02.333
VA-10 = 02.035
KS-04 = 02.000
FL-12 = 01.875
AR-02 = 01.867 R gain
PA-19 = 01.670
NC-10 = 01.670
TX-14 = 01.668
VA-06 = 01.667
TX-26 = 01.667
TX-21 = 01.667
TX-12 = 01.667
TX-05 = 01.667
TX-04 = 01.667
TX-13 = 01.667
VA-01 = 01.500
OH-14 = 01.458
FL-10 = 01.443
SC-02 = 01.443
PA-05 = 01.430
OH-02 = 01.430
TX-03 = 01.430
FL-04 = 01.430
PA-09 = 01.430
SR
TX-10 = 01.250
TX-24 = 01.250
TX-07 = 01.250
TX-31 = 01.250
TX-08 = 01.250
TX-19 = 01.250
TX-11 = 01.250
NY-29 = 01.242 R gain
AZ-03 = 01.213
TX-32 = 01.113
MO-08 = 01.110
IL-16 = 01.000
IL-15 = 01.000
FL-05 = 01.000
TX-02 = 01.000
IN-05 = 01.000
TX-01 = 01.000
FL-15 = 00.953
LA-03 = 00.933 R gain
CA-44 = 00.925
CA-02 = 00.900
MI-03 = 00.898
IL-06 = 00.835
IL-18 = 00.835
AZ-02 = 00.782
CA-50 = 00.715
FL-07 = 00.715
KY-05 = 00.667
MN-03 = 00.625
CA-26 = 00.625
CA-04 = 00.625
IN-04 = 00.625
LA-01 = 00.625
AK-AL = 00.607
FL-21 = 00.557
NC-05 = 00.557
KS-02 = 00.555
FL-16 = 00.477
TN-06 = 00.477 R gain
AR-03 = 00.417
MI-08 = 00.415
FL-09 = 00.333
NY-26 = 00.333
PA-18 = 00.333
OR-02 = 00.333
TN-03 = 00.333
UT-03 = 00.333
NJ-11 = 00.278
TN-07 = 00.278
MI-11 = 00.238
FL-14 = 00.238
MO-02 = 00.083
NJ-02 = 00.000
IA-04 = 00.000
MI-06 = 00.000
WI-01 = 00.000
FL-18 = 00.000
MI-04 = 00.000
CA-24 = 00.000
MN-02 = 00.000
NY-03 = 00.000
VA-04 = 00.000
WI-06 = 00.000
MI-10 = 00.000
NV-02 = 00.000
OH-03 = 00.000
CA-25 = 00.000
CA-46 = 00.000
CA-48 = 00.000
FL-13 = 00.000
NJ-04 = 00.000
MI-02 = 00.000
MO-06 = 00.000
MT-AL = 00.000
NJ-05 = 00.000
OH-07 = 00.000
WA-05 = 00.000
CA-40 = 00.000
CO-06 = 00.000
PA-16 = 00.000
WV-02 = 00.000
AL-03 = 00.000
CA-19 = 00.000
CA-52 = 00.000
IA-05 = 00.000
MO-09 = 00.000
OH-05 = 00.000
VA-07 = 00.000
CA-41 = 00.000
CA-42 = 00.000
CA-49 = 00.000
FL-06 = 00.000
IN-06 = 00.000
LA-06 = 00.000
SC-01 = 00.000
LA-04 = 00.000
NE-01 = 00.000
NC-09 = 00.000
CA-21 = 00.000
MD-06 = 00.000
OK-05 = 00.000
WA-04 = 00.000
AL-01 = 00.000
CO-05 = 00.000
KY-04 = 00.000
LA-05 = 00.000
LA-07 = 00.000
OH-08 = 00.000
AZ-06 = 00.000
GA-10 = 00.000
KY-01 = 00.000
KY-02 = 00.000
MS-03 = 00.000
OH-04 = 00.000
SC-04 = 00.000
CA-22 = 00.000
GA-01 = 00.000
GA-07 = 00.000
NC-03 = 00.000
OK-01 = 00.000
TN-02 = 00.000
ID-02 = 00.000
MO-07 = 00.000
SC-03 = 00.000
NC-06 = 00.000
OK-04 = 00.000
GA-03 = 00.000
GA-06 = 00.000
GA-11 = 00.000
WY-AL = 00.000
FL-01 = 00.000
TN-01 = 00.000
UT-01 = 00.000
KS-01 = 00.000
NE-03 = 00.000
OK-03 = 00.000
AL-04 = 00.000
GA-09 = 00.000
AL-06 = 00.000
The House polls shows just the effect of the “enthusiasm gap” in this type of polls, when the number of votes is not high. Looking to the results I think they are polls for no-competitive races with 5-10 votes still. Here the median, despite to be a robust stimator of the average, failed sometimes under the effect of the “enthusiasm gap” what make some republicans give not logical votes, like Toss-Ups for Safe races.
We can see some rare results but still, the big majority of the results follow a logical rank. The polls, gives to the republicans net gains of 34 seats (38 republican pick-ups for 4 democratic pick-ups). Including again the “enthusiasm gap” inside the results. This low, very low number of Safe Democratic districts prove it.
For the democratic gains:
1. LA-02 Last polls: -25.00% Logical result despite the polls.
2. DE-AL
3. IL-13 Last polls: -29.50% Surprise about a weak incumbent.
4. HI-01 Last polls: -08.00% Logical result but I’m afraid.
5. IL-10
For the republican gains:
1. TN-06 Last polls: ——-
2. LA-03 Last polls: ——-
3. NY-29 Last polls: -17.00%
4. AR-02 Last polls: -16.50%
5. ND-AL Last polls: only Ras –
6. PA-11 Last polls: -15.00%
7. TN-08 Last polls: -10.00%
8. KS-03 Last polls: ——-
9. VA-05 Last polls: -13.75%
10. NM-02 Last polls: -00.50%
11. NY-24 Last polls: ——-
12. CO-04 Last polls: -11.00%
13. MD-01 Last polls: -03.67%
14. FL-24 Last polls: ——-
15. PA-07 Last polls: -21.00%
16. VA-02 Last polls: -06.00%
17. NH-02 Last polls: -12.75%
18. WA-03 Last polls: -13.00%
19. OH-16 Last polls: -13.00%
20. AR-01 Last polls: -05.00%
21. SD-AL
22. MI-01 Last polls: -16.00%
23. IN-08 Last polls: ——-
24. PA-03 Last polls: -07.00%
25. MI-07 Last polls: -09.33%
26. FL-08
27. MS-01
28. NV-03 Last polls: -01.25%
29. NH-01 Last polls: -02.50%
30. IL-11 Last polls: -11.75%
31. SC-05
32. TX-17
33. OH-01 Last polls: -09.50%
34. IL-14 Last polls: -02.75%
35. FL-02 Last polls: -15.00%
36. WV-01
37. WI-07 Last polls: -09.00%
38. IN-09
I leave without write about the last polls the races what have positive numbers for the democratic side, some of they, very narrow. They are not big surprises in the list, despite some races has positive polls.
The people what vote in these polls buy not the bad polls for seats like PA-10, WI-08, IA-03, PA-08, AZ-01, AZ-05, OH-15, VA-11, CO-03, FL-22 and some seats more, despite the results of the polls are affected by the “enthusiasm gap”.
With a democratic lead, the polls about TX-20, PA-01 and PA-02 are strongly affected by the “enthusiasm gap”, and give rare results, but this is less than the 1% of the districts and the cause is the low number of votes in the polls.
That mean, the people what vote in these CQ-politics polls think the democrats can keep a narrow majority in the US House.