DCCC Drops $21.5M on 66 Districts

A special roundup of tonight’s independent expenditure filings from the DCCC — likely their last major buys for the cycle:

District Incumbent Buy CTD
AL-02 Bright $266,416 $1,401,924
AR-01 OPEN $538,343 $1,760,295
AZ-01 Kirkpatrick $270,804 $1,018,678
AZ-05 Mitchell $269,473 $1,089,934
AZ-07 Grijalva $82,991 $178,153
AZ-08 Giffords $132,195 $132,195
CA-11 McNerney $471,126 $1,011,469
CA-20 Costa $191,580 $346,583
CO-03 Salazar $258,248 $1,148,734
CO-07 Perlmutter $301,064 $465,176
CT-05 Murphy $274,950 $274,950
FL-02 Boyd $170,422 $337,516
FL-22 Klein $315,840 $315,840
FL-25 OPEN $775,900 $1,394,729
GA-02 Bishop $256,835 $756,286
GA-08 Marshall $11,340 $42,321
HI-01 Djou $126,252 $814,931
IA-01 Braley $166,944 $180,739
IA-02 Loebsack $270,353 $578,620
IA-03 Boswell $157,789 $723,500
IL-10 OPEN $590,722 $1,725,029
IL-14 Foster $526,917 $1,283,956
IL-17 Hare $92,158 $1,091,570
IN-02 Donnelly $179,712 $729,651
IN-09 Hill $454,496 $1,305,315
KY-06 Chandler $133,451 $452,695
MA-10 OPEN $823,059 $1,390,878
MD-01 Kratovil $339,824 $1,467,081
MI-01 OPEN $201,432 $1,274,577
MI-07 Schauer $354,294 $1,354,383
MI-09 Peters $497,250 $497,250
MN-01 Walz $129,922 $255,726
MO-04 Skelton $458,420 $1,236,357
MS-01 Childers $224,934 $957,497
NC-07 McIntyre $62,134 $202,049
NC-08 Kissell $458,101 $1,705,390
ND-AL Pomeroy $294,008 $795,743
NH-02 OPEN $487,837 $968,365
NJ-03 Adler $642,132 $642,132
NM-01 Heinrich $372,240 $860,469
NV-03 Titus $404,364 $1,354,173
NY-19 Hall $409,200 $502,692
NY-20 Murphy $220,230 $674,536
NY-23 Owens $431,140 $921,679
NY-24 Arcuri $260,352 $987,973
OH-06 Wilson $240,781 $596,578
OH-16 Boccieri $296,096 $1,449,103
OH-18 Space $277,311 $1,512,696
OR-05 Schrader $354,767 $1,239,101
PA-07 OPEN $702,325 $950,105
PA-08 Murphy $544,222 $544,222
PA-10 Carney $217,499 $579,489
PA-11 Kanjorski $196,926 $670,576
PA-12 Critz $325,011 $1,100,181
SC-05 Spratt $252,007 $1,124,024
SD-AL Herseth $262,822 $344,786
TN-04 Davis $168,260 $454,260
TX-17 Edwards $568,953 $626,750
TX-23 Rodriguez $169,021 $815,577
VA-02 Nye $88,514 $788,447
VA-05 Perriello $142,123 $593,713
VA-11 Connolly $1,079,867 $1,458,790
WA-02 Larsen $344,383 $605,930
WA-03 OPEN $562,384 $1,728,123
WI-07 OPEN $131,383 $880,769
WV-01 OPEN $210,483 $1,180,131
Total: $21,492,332 $57,853,090

Of particular note is the $1 million dropped by the D-trip against Keith Fimian in VA-11.

148 thoughts on “DCCC Drops $21.5M on 66 Districts”

  1. on a candidate in WV-1 who’ll probably end up jumping to the Republicans if he wins, or at least vote with them most of the time?

  2. First of all, they should have pressured Berry, Baird, Obey, and Stupak to run for reelection, including with pleas from Obama.  These seats would all likely be safe if we had incumbents there.  

  3. Dems leading early voting in IA-01, IA-02, IA-03, but DCCC still going negative on all the Republicans makes me think they are less than fully confident. I heard a radio ad today (DCCC) about Brad Zaun’s 2001 incident when a police officer had to warn him to stay away from his ex-girlfriend.

    Iowa Dems say Culver now leads Branstad in IA-02. If that’s true, it’s hard for me to imagine a significant number of Culver/Miller-Meeks ticket-splitters.

  4. Unsurprising Incumbents

    Kosmas (FL-24)

    Driehaus (OH-01)

    Kilroy (OH-15)

    Dahlkemper (PA-03)

    Mildly Surprising

    Markey (CO-04): Pelosi’s apparently left her and Dahlkemper out to dry, which is surprising.

    Grayson (FL-08): Or does he just have enough $ to sink or swim on his own?

    Shea-Porter (NH-01): They didn’t want to buy in the Boston media market?

    Teague (NM-02)

    Kagan (WI-08): Self funding?

  5. One…million dollars!  Don’t know if that says much about the competitiveness of the district, or just how expensive it is to advertise in the DC area.

  6. Unless they’re seeing something I haven’t, I think the Boyd ad buy is a waste of $170,000; I would rather that money have gone elsewhere. I’m not sure what the runner up is….

    A week ago, I would have said the D-Trip was nuts to drop over a half mil on Causey. I’m still not sure that it isn’t but I won’t flat out say that.

    Also mildly surprised to see that they’re not playing in AZ-03.

  7. Louisville media market isn’t that much and covers most of the district. That will go far. Republicans have still spent more. I see Young ads all the time. Still them spending to me indicates Hill’s RUMORED internal was probably accurate as they would not spend on him if he was down. Then again he’s an incumbent who took a lot of tough votes, they probably promised they would spend on him. I mean there spending on Boyd who is toast.  

  8. Why does the DCCC CONSTANTLY IGNORE CA-44?!?!  It’s a better investment that stupid AZ-07, which may give Grijalva a smaller margin, but he isn’t going to lose.

    Hedrick on the other hand, could REALLY win this one, yet everyone has written it off for some god damn reason.  WHAT THE HELL!?  We saw a poll about three weeks ago that showed him closing in quickly on Calvert.  CONSERVATIVES HATE CALVERT TOO!!  God Damn it.  If the DCCC did their god damn job in the first place, and examined all potentially close races, Hedrick would be in congress right now, but instead, he lost by 2% in 2008, which lit a fire under Calvert’s ass, who started raking in the cash to put out the potential problem that was Hedrick.

    Nice job DCCC.  You F@%ing Morons.

  9. Have not seen that much on union commericals.  I heard on NPR or CSPAN radio the other day that the utnions state that they are spending a lot of money but it does not appear to be on advertising.  So some of the Republican strategists were worried that this money was solely going to pay for GOTV.  Has anyone heard this as well?

  10. Perlmutter is seriously in trouble? Really? And nothing for Markey?

    And that seems like a freakin’ enormous amount of money in Ike Skelton’s district – or is media there a lot more expensive than I’d have thought?

  11. Off the top of my head I can name:

    Callahan, Bera, Trivadi, Delbene, and Hedrick

    What the heck are the DCCC thinking??!?!?!?!?

    Why drop over 500k for an open seat in AR-1 when you have more deserving and realistic opportunities? All of them have PVI better than AR-1.  

    At the very least, Seals and Hanabusa is being sent reinforcements.

  12. Dunno what that means, except that maybe Dems have stopped the bleeding in the Philly burbs, and it made sense to drop some cash there (whereas previously Patrick Murphy had been written off).  

  13. Some numbers from the two nominally separate groups have trickled in over the evening.

    Listing the media buy numbers only, not the media production cost…

    CA-20: $328K

    GA-02: $123K

    HI-01: $76K

    IN-02: $170K

    MO-03: $241K

    NC-11: $241K

    ND-AL: $238K

    NY-22: $256K

    OH-16: $438K

    TN-04: $263K

    TX-23: $322K

    Now here’s something fishy to me…

    CO-SEN: $646K

    IL-SEN: $1025K

    NV-SEN: $556K

    WA-SEN: $1040K

    Wow.  Huge spending in the 3 out of 4 of the Senate races that NRSC skipped today?  Does that sound like illegal coordination?

  14. DCCC clearly sensing weak Republican candidates could put those districts, once thought lost, into their column.

  15. is the fact that so much money was spent on NJ-03 a reflection of just how expensive that media market is, or is it far enough away from New York for that not to matter?  

  16. I think Taylor is better off not having anyone see ads with the word ‘Democratic’ in them in any form. Besides media in Mississippi is cheap, and Taylor should have enough cash to pull through.

  17. They never spent on him, period, so they did not pull back.  It has only been recently that he has been considered vulnerable.  Maybe Taylor wants nothing to do with the DCCC, or maybe they’re not that concerned and think Taylor will pull through on his own.  Either of those explanations is as or more reasonable as him being “triaged.”  There has been nothing remotely close to evidence that his opponent has had an insurmountable lead at any time.  In fact, it is as likely as not that Taylor currently has the lead based on the available information.  No reason to believe it’s a “triage.”

  18. that the DCCC hasn’t invested in that race at all. Which could mean that he doesn’t want party assistance, or he’s doing reasonably well, or something else entirely…

  19. In the WV State Legislature, the Dems hold sweeping majorities in both chambers, but quite a few of them are very conservative.  Oliverio is one of those.  This isn’t a Ralph Hall situation where a Dixiecrat turns Republican because of a sudden death in Yellow Dog Dems (in this case, it was Delaymandering that caused this, moving Hall to a region unused to voting for any Democrat).  Nor is it a Parker Griffith situation given the heavy registration advantage of Democrats there.

  20. There are some economic votes on which the Democrats can probably count on Oliverio – but only if he can be counted on to remain a Democrat. And given his history of running against Democrats and away from Democrats, and his voting record in Charleston, I really wouldn’t be confident of that.

  21. And in both this case and PA-8, I imagine the previous hesitation to spend was just because of the major CoH advantages Adler and Murphy possess.

  22. 1 yes he has enough of money, both through dkos and his own.

    2.  given his ads, they probably don’t want to touch that a-hole with a ten foot pole.

  23. They are both personally very wealthy. They can stroke a 6 figure check without breaking a sweat.  

  24. Denver market has three high dollar House races, the ridiculously high dollar Senate race, and Hick and Tancredo. Plus downballot races that are advertising, including several ballot initiatives. It’s completely swamped, nothing left to buy that has any meaning.

    She’s down a couple in internals but still has a puncher’s shot, if the 3rd party guy on Tancredo’s line can pull 10%, which has happened before. That and a killer GOTV can get her there. I’d call it 20% shot, which isn’t great but certainly not zero. Somewhere a couple of these kinds of Dems are going to buck the odds, and she’s aa good candidate, as she’s quite popular, just in a brutal district.

    Salazar’s guys are also guardedly optimistic, based on internals I haven’t seen. Perlmutter’s a mystery, as that’s a pretty blue seat. His people don’t talk much, so who knows.  

  25. I will say it again: I really wish one of the big newspapers would devote a reporter or two to covering all of this stuff as it changes. It’s not the sort of stuff that necessarily drives a captivating story until after the election, but I’m not aware of any mainstream site, or even semi-exclusive site, that does this. Sure, amateurs like us can track it, but imagine the number of hits The New York Times site might get if it was the only major news organization to deal with the minutiae of stuff like this.

    Anyway, how worried, on a scale of 1-10, should we be that they are spending money on Adler?  

  26. cutoff point for “being in play” versus simply purchasing insurance? They aren’t spending that much money in AZ-07, for instance, so is the seat really in play in the same sense that MD-01 is?

  27. Democratic retirements were actually pretty low this year. Plus, how much pressure can you apply? It’s not like you can deny them committee appointment or anything.

  28. There is a segment of that district that is hard right. They were always opposed to Baird. Then Baird thumbed his nose at some of his union supporters. When he realized that he had as many enemies as before and wasn’t sure he count count on friends he had burned once or twice, he opted not to run a race he wasn’t sure he could win.  

  29. Him needing to retire was a self-inflicted wound. If you are unhappy about legislation, then go talk to your majority leader instead of grandstanding on tv.

  30. The problem with a newspaper doing this is that nearly all newspapers have specific geographical niches. They and their readers mostly don’t care about politics elsewhere. This type of minutiae is much more appropriate for an online politics site that has a national focus. The obvious choice would be Politico, since they’re the biggest of the online politics sites. Unfortunately, Politico is turning into the Fox News of the blogosphere.  HuffPo, maybe? Meh. Just another reason to be thankful for SSP.

    Still…point taken. The media sucks. It should be better.

  31. He’s personally wealthy, and I think he’d rather self-fund than have his commercials run by the DCCC in that district.

  32. My other thought is that they might be trying to fly that particular race under the radar. DelBene is another one with money to go around.

  33. She was sort of the poster child for taking a tough vote on the HCR bill, so that’s why I’m surprised. A big part of me is p*****d that they’re shelling out for worthless Paul Kanjorski but not Dahlkemper; Erie is not that expensive a media market (though Pittsburgh ain’t cheap).

    Another incumbent they’re not buying for is Halvorson, but that one falls in the hardly shocking category.

  34. ads in the Louisville market? I haven’t seen one. Two population centers are in the Indianapolis market. You think they would run ads. Maybe they have, but I haven’t seen a single one and like I’ve said before I’ve seen the DCCC ads many times.

  35. Los Angeles is the second most expensive media market in the nation, and the DCCC simply has to spread the money as far as it will go. Even a minimal ad buy there is going to run a half million for a week. So I can understand their thinking. Not even Loretta Sanchez, an incumbent who may or not be on the ropes, is getting an ad buy down in the 47th.

  36. About AZ-07, Grijalva is safe even though he made a really stupid comment about boycotting Arizona. He’s safe.

    If Hedrick couldn’t win in 08, there’s not much chance he’d win in 2010. Plus he has the OC portion of the district that is super conservative and will pull the handle for any dude with an R next to their name, even though Hedrick did open a campaign HQ in San Clemente. I think he ought to run in 2012, but the question is what will the district look like, and since he lives in Corona its more harder to draw him a D-friendly district since Corona is a bit conservative and is more likely to be in a Chino Hills/Yorba Linda district than what not. I think he is a great candidate, but its not happening this cycle.

  37. But you can’t go around cutting off a bunch of incumbents and then try funding a bunch of challengers who have even tougher races.

    The reason the DCCC ignores CA-44 is that it’s going to get an overhaul in redistricting anyway. They’re waiting until 2012 to take out Calvert (also Bilbray, Bono-Mack, Dreier, Nunes, McCarthy and maybe more… I’m already looking forward to 2012, actually).

    Hahahaha, I just read Ken Calvert’s Wikipedia page…I’d forgotten about him fleeing the scene of a crime…that scene, of course, being him getting a blowjob from a prostitute. Classic.

  38. A not insignificant part of Skelton’s district is in the Kansas City media market, hence the heavier outlay than you’d think.

  39. …the AFL-CIO head said that they were going to mostly spend on GOTV instead of TV.  The quote went something like, “I think we need more one-on-one in person face time for this election than TV ads.”

    So, yes, their efforts have been GOTV.

  40. Unions have been a major beneficiary of the Citizens United ruling, and three of the five largest outside spender this year are unions: AFSCME (1st), SEIU (4th), and the NEA (5th.) Combined, those three unions have spent over $170 million; comparatively, Crossroads has spent $65 million and the Chamber of Commerce $75 million.

    Unions may not be on TV, but they are in no way sitting this one out.


  41. I wonder if that’s our ace in the hole in that big, nasty corridor of pain stretching from Philadelphia to St. Louis this year come election day.

  42. calls for making tough decisions. For example, if they’ve established that Kosmas has a 10% chance of winning, should they spend millions of dollars on that 10% chance or instead turn that money to races that are at 40% (offensively) and 60% (defensively)?

    For me, it’s no contest. They need to make tough decisions, as hard as it is to let some of these great reps go.

  43. He is trailing in another poll released a few days, and is tied in a Rutgers-Eagelton poll today also released.  All after leading by 2,3 and 8 points in the prior additions of the polls.  The race appears to be trending Runyan’s way despite his gaffes and truly mediocre campaign.  Adler has tried to distance himself from Pelosi and position himself as the moderate that he actually is.  But the climate is tough and in a race that I originally thought he would pull out, I’m beginning to think a Runyan win is more likely.

  44. at least not in this regard anyway. It’s that there’s a pretty big void begging to be filled, but nobody seems willing to do it. People like us could do it, but as much as I’d like to spend my day doing it, I can’t. I imagine the same situation applies to everyone else. Of course, this area doesn’t seem to require the sort of specialized knowledge that covering, say, the derivatives market requires. It’s indeed fairly broad, so it’s extremely likely any one of the many political reporters working for a paper like The New York Times could do it.

    I don’t know about any of the sites you mentioned doing what I described. I could see The Huffington Post doing something like it, although one wonders why it hasn’t already done it. (Maybe they have and I just don’t know where to find it.) It was recently announced that Politico was starting a subscription news service to cover the details of the health care, technology, and energy sectors, and while this isn’t really the sort of information people would pay a lot for, perhaps it will be included for some other reason. The likeliest candidate, I would think, is Bloomberg Government, which is launching soon and will supposedly try to make the documents released by the government a little more accessible, although it’s supposedly charging a fee. Again, this isn’t really something people would pay for, but it’s not that hard to do, and it’d be an instant source of hits for any news site that tried to do it. I know I’d go to that site any time information was released.  

  45. Available here. No one else in the media — dead tree or online — was covering IEs like we were that year.

    Unfortunately, I don’t have nearly the amount of free time that I did two years ago (although, in a sense, this is a good thing), so daily updates like these just haven’t been possible for SSP this cycle. I made a special exception tonight because it’s not every day that a party committee drops 20 million bux.

  46. The DC market is extremely expensive to advertise in. I think the money could be spent elsewhere as Connolly is relatively well known in the district but Fimian has been having more ads lately. I think Connolly is a lean Democrat right now.  

  47. Plattsburgh, N.Y., to St. Louis. Upstate New York does not look pretty for Democrats this cycle, unfortunately.

  48. before, but I’ll say it again. Unless the losses line up with the generic ballot in a really specific way, it’s not that crazy to think the Democrats might hold the House. They have a pretty big buffer right now, for one thing, and they seem likely to pick up at least four seats. That alone brings up the number to 43, and there are at least a few more where it wouldn’t shock anyone to see the incumbent lose. Now, while I think the Democrats will do badly, I don’t think they will lose 70 seats, let alone 90-something. It wouldn’t shock me to see them lose 50 seats; several of the pundits seem to be predicting losses to be around there.

    For the purposes of this argument, let’s say we start off at 50 seats being lost. Winning the four everyone talks about, at minimum, would bring us down to 46 seats lost overall. Now, as it happens, a lot of the seats we are fighting for are clustered in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois. The Republicans aren’t at a severe disadvantage in any of them except for perhaps New York, but then, the Republicans probably aren’t doing that much better than the Democrats in any of them, if they are doing better at all. Unless there’s something going on that I don’t know about, I would expect the ground games of the Democrats to be as good if not better than that of the Republicans in those states. And then there are the coattails of the individual candidates, like Andrew Cuomo and Joe Sestak. I could go on, but you get the idea.

    Figure that if we can save just one seat that would otherwise be lost to the Republicans in New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, we are down from 46 to 42. If we can save two from each one of those states, and still lose a bunch in states like Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia, we go from 46 to 38. We then keep the House.

    While I might be painting with too broad a brush here, I don’t think it’s any more ridiculous than any of the other factors that supposedly influence a race. And if the Democrats end up keeping the House by the tiniest of margins, my guess is that the aftermath accounts of how they did it will talk heavily about what I described above.  

  49. A million for a week gets you broadcast primetime in D.C.  They’re not cheaping out on Connolly.

  50. I can’t blame the Representatives that were being denied funds for being pissed if they stuck their necks out, but at the same time, I’d say they were lying if they claimed they wouldn’t be doing the same thing if they were in charge.

    I will say this: should some really vulnerable members like Markey and Dahlkemper survive, Obama should make smoothing over relations with them a big priority. If nothing else, it’ll look like he’s throwing a bone to the base.  

  51. I can’t blame the Representatives that were being denied funds for being pissed if they stuck their necks out, but at the same time, I’d say they were lying if they claimed they wouldn’t be doing the same thing if they were in charge.

    I will say this: should some really vulnerable members like Markey and Dahlkemper survive, Obama should make smoothing over relations with them a big priority. If nothing else, it’ll look like he’s throwing a bone to the base.  

  52. Yeah, but how do you get folks to take tough votes in the future with the memory of people like Markey being left to hang while Kissell, Skelton, and Edwards world get half million dollar media buys in their last week…..just saying…loyalty is a two way street.

  53. …people like Braley don’t become this cycle’s Jeb Bradley.

    The IEs really have killed us and helped the GOP bigtime.  Honestly, if the GOP IEs weren’t there, we’d likely have a 50-50 shot at holding the House based on our cash advantage otherwise.  But we didn’t have the outside groups this time, signficantly but not solely because Obama had discouraged them in 2008 and that sentiment supposedly continued into this cycle.  But Axelrod et al. were stupid on this one, they didn’t get it that a mishmash of 400-plus campaigns and party committees and state parties can’t do what a single massively-funded major party Presidential nominee can do.  That should’ve been elementary, but they really didn’t think it through.

  54. sound like I was diminishing the work that you or anyone else who gathers information for this site is doing. There’s a reason that I spend hours a day on this site: it’s awesome. But like you said, you couldn’t devote nearly the amount of time this year that you did in 2008. Now, while I usually don’t read the political coverage of the major institutions–I feel as if there’s not that much that I am missing by relying on blogs for horse race-style information–my impression is that there’s usually a team that tackles the White House and congress, even if they have individual titles. I think I remember reading that five reporters from The New York Times were included on the list of reporters most called on at White House press conferences. Is it really necessary to have that many people covering the White House? Why not take just one and have them cover political spending in a really detailed way?  

  55. spiderdem has done some yeoman’s work on IEs in the diaries this year, which has helped provide great context.

  56. I followed them religiously.  But you have a life.  You guys are incredible with the amount of time and detail you put into the blog, and no-one here should ask for more than you do.  

  57. Have you seen any ads? I have only seen one Fimian ad during the Skins game which was from an IE with the kids hurting their back from “all of Connolly’s wasteful spending”.  

  58. The NRSC did not run any IE’s (at least none that I saw) for Scott Brown in MA this January because they were trying to de-emphasize his connections to national Republicans here in Democratic Massachusetts. They helped direct money towards him, both in the form of direct donor and third-parties (the Chamber, 60 Plus Assoc, and several groups with “family” and “taxpayers” were on the air) but did not formally advertise for him.

  59. They are running very effective ads against Crawford and his stances on Social Security. In a district where the bedrock of the electorate are older white Democrats, I would wager that polling is showing a swing back to Causey via this messaging.  

  60. Sure, the Gerlach internal with the 35-point lead was a bit of an exaggeration, but I haven’t seen any polling that shows a single-digit race.

    As far as the others go, you have a point, but I think that the Democrats are wise to concentrate their funds on toss-up incumbent races because a. They know these people are capable of winning the districts because they’ve done it before b. The polling shows the race can go either way at this point and c. They are showing loyalty to Democrats who have cast key votes for them and donated to the DCCC. Especially C: if an incumbent in a tough race is someone who has been a good soldier for the party in Congress, the least the DCCC can do is get on the air and fight for that Democrat.

  61. and it looks like Heck is making the most of the opportunity. If Heck pulls it out, I think it will make for quite the case study for future D congressional candidates.

  62. any doubt that our side would also benefit somewhat from the decision. The worry was that whatever gains we’d see would simply be overwhelmed by the gains that the Republicans would see. So far, that concern looks justified.

    You know, I remember reading around the time McCain-Feingold passed that there was a lot of reluctance on the part of the Democrats to go along with any new restrictions on fund raising because they finally learned how to play the game that the Republicans played so well for the previous decade.  

  63. Strike off Delbene

    That leaves Bera, Callahan, Hedrick, and Trivedi.  

    This late, these ads could cause a 1-2% shift, I could see Bera and Hedrick riding off the bounce of Brown and Boxer and hang onto their coattails.  

  64. he also can self-fund, as he has constantly out-raised his opponent each fundraising quarter.

  65. Imagine if Howard Dean could create a parallel DNC that actually did things right for a change.  One of the reasons we were hit so hard this year by Citizens United is that Obama basically defunded the outside groups in 2008 and they haven’t recovered.  There are plenty of rich Dem donors who have maxed out to candidates and party committees that would love to give more money to an independent group(s) that would be the parallel to Karl Rove’s crossroads group.

    In fact, the best way to get the GOP to restricting outside groups would be to create a huge Dem-supporting group to counter Rove.  Once they see competition, then they might change their tunes on the situation.

  66. as you make it out to be. Starting a 527, as I understand it, isn’t like building a factory in that it takes a lot of time. It’s pretty much a matter of paperwork, which would in theory be filed pretty quickly if people wanted it to be. Could the Democrats have started something similar to American Crossroads, or its spin off Crossroads GPS, if they wanted to? I don’t see why not.

    If that’s the case, then we have to wonder why they didn’t do it. I’m sure some of it was ideological, but at the same time, would the money have come to them? Would Bob Perry of Perry Homes in Houston, Texas, have given anything to the Democrats? (This is going on the assumption that he didn’t give anything substantial, if anything at all.) And if people like him weren’t going to give, who was? I suspect it was some toxic combination of the Republicans being the ones out of power and thus the default choice to replace Democrats and their interest aligning with or becoming the same as those who were willing to spend the money to see their preferred legislation in action.  

  67. I haven’t given any money to Taryl Clark. If she was going to replace Bachmann for two years but then be redistricted, what’s the point? I figured it was better to send money to Tom Perriello.

    Anyway, this is off topic, but there was once an episode of “Dharma and Greg” where Greg ran for a congressional seat. In the episode, he and Dharma were having sex in their car when a reporter took a picture and it became news. The family, especially the blue-blooded mother-in-law, was horrified at what it might do to her son’s chances. As it happens, the story went that it actually looked good for Greg–because he was having sex with his wife, and not someone else.

    I always think of that whenever I hear about a politician involved in a sex scandal.  

  68. who are those donors, and why didn’t they simply start their own groups? Is it really THAT hard to start a 527?  

  69. Karl Rove did… You need someone to think of it and organize it and no one did.  Rove’s been planning this for years.  H”e was ready to go as soon as the decision came down. Maybe Bill Clinton can head something up next time around.

  70. That well over half the votes are already cast. TV is becoming very inefficient now. It’s all targeted communications from here on out.

  71. The dude’s a billionaire and is heavily dedicated to the progressive and Democratic causes. He invested heavily in ’06 and ’08, no reason to think he won’t do so in the future.

  72. and deleting comments to try to make my thoughts more concise for a few minutes. Suffice it to say that I am not convinced it was a matter of an inability to set up a group in time. I suspect it was more of a matter of an inability to attract the same number of dollars as the groups funding the Republicans.

    What you are suggesting isn’t entirely ridiculous, but at the same time, what is so inherently difficult about this process that it requires months if not years to complete? As you said before, there were groups before Obama supposedly overpowered them, so why couldn’t someone piece together the alleged shattered remains of those organizations?  

  73. Definitely seemed after the primary that Herrera was a solid favorite.  As I indicated in some earlier threads, race was basically off the radar until about 10 days ago when we started seeing and hearing ads for this race. Its pretty evident the D’s see at least some semblance of hope for this race to still be investing so heavily at this late date…

  74. Doubt he ever participates again…

    If he does, though, that will provide momentum to pass a bipartisan regulation bill in congress.

  75. I wouldn’t say that yet.  NY-29 is the only one that’s lost.  Maffei’s been ahead in most polls.  So has Arcuri.  Hinchey’s in for the race of his life, but still has to be favored. Murphy’s had one awful poll, but has mostly led.  Owens has led as much as trailed.  All of Hall’s polling has been close.  Slaughter, Tomko(sic?), Engel, Higgins, and Lowey aren’t going anywhere.  With a Dem blowout in nearly every statewide race, I’m gonna say it’s still quite likely they could escape the Empire State down only one seat (which would be a 26d-3r delegation).  (or they could lose 10, but doubt that)

  76. If the Republicans take back the Presidency in 2012, I can almost guarantee you’ll be hearing from him in 2014 and 2016.

  77. has been a strong fundraiser, and has been able to mount a credible ad campaign without outside support before now.

  78. NY still looks pretty good relative to many other states. Sure, there will be a few hair-raising polls this week, but we shouldn’t taken any one poll in isolation. House race polling is notoriously difficult and volatile.

  79. New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are gerrymandered very precariously for Democrats (as are Arizona, Florida, and Missouri). There are a bunch of races probably somewhere in the low single digits, and specific voting dynamics on the ground are highly fluid and sometimes very specific, tough for national media (or folks sitting on their computers poring over ad buys, poll numbers, commercials, expenditures, and press releases) to pick up on.

    There will either be a river of blood winding from upstate New York down to downstate Illinois, a few islands of blue in the red, or a few islands of red in the blue. And it all depends on GOTV now.

  80. coattails are strong for Dems in NY. Paladino is going to drag at least two districts down with him, especially NY-19. NY-20 is going to benefit from Gillibrand on the ticket. Arcuri has led consistently, so the one I’m most worried about is Owens, and I’m not that worried.  

  81. He raised almost $4M.  And he had a ton of outside support from Votevets.org and AFSCME, and SEIU.  DCCC didn’t spend until recently because it wasn’t needed, but now it’s crunch time.  Relatively little third party spending has been spent against Murphy in PA-08.

  82. consistently…. in the PDX side of the district.

    For us, Herrera was silent for just about all of August and September — not only on TV, but also in actual campaign events (check the event calendar on her Website).

  83. Yes, I was referring just to Seattle market. Not sure of exact #s but I’d guess at least 2/3 of district is in Portland market.

  84. those who were cut off can’t see the logic in the decision to cut them off, then they probably aren’t cut out for politics. Perhaps they had different information, but then, why wouldn’t they share it?

  85. Rep. Markey knew she was putting her reelection in jeopardy when she voted for healthcare reform. The DCCC tried to help her, but her numbers were in freefall and they had to reallocate resources.

    There are, as I see it, three types of politicians when it comes to actually getting down to business: the courageous, the cowardly, and the stupid. Markey took a courageous stand for something she believed in. Any Democrat (or Republican!) who backed HCR but didn’t vote for it was cowardly. And any Democrat in a swing district who voted for HCR only because he had been assured the DCCC and the unions would bail him out was stupid.

  86. Driehaus, Kosmos, Dalkemper…

    I honestly think, HCR will be the last major reform bill passed maybe ever.  Even if Obama regains house seats in 2013 it will not match what was needed to pass HCR.    

  87. It is literally on during every major sporting I’ve watched in the past two weeks. I saw a Fimian ad earlier in the month. Then another positive ad on cable and broadcast this week. The Connolly stuff I’ve seen has been mostly direct mail attacking Fimian for extrmeme social views and such. I also saw the ad the Washington Post attacked several times.

  88. and I can only recall seeing Connolly’s ads, with the main one being attacks on Fimian’s social views.

  89. …a generic hit on federal spending and whatever else, basically the broad themes and plain vanilla.

    I’ve seen a lot more stuff attacking Fimian.

    But some of that might have to do with what we’re watching.  We watch some broadcast in my house, but otherwise my wife dominates the TV with choices that appeal largely to women, or else I have on MSNBC for background noise.  So a lot of our choice of programming happens to have Democratic-friendly audiences that a Democrat would target more than a Republican.  Still, if you’re spending millions, you don’t have to be so picky, so I have the impression that Connolly has aired more ads than Fimian although I admit my anecdotal impression is most certainly not data.

  90. Recent polls have showed Murphy trailing his Republican challenger, Mike Fitzpatrick, by double digits. Dent also maintains a significant double-digit lead over his Democratic opponent, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan.

    This is why House polling and races are so hard to read. Murphy was down in one or two polls, so analysts and journalists started counting him out. But, just one week later, he still seems very much in the thick of it, has been up in 1-2 polls since, and very well could close strong. We’ll see.

    The opposite could happen in other races. This is one of the things that make tracking elections so much fun – and such a major pain in the ass. 😉

  91. Take it for what it’s worth, but his campaign told me yesterday that their internals show a tie.  Rove’s Group is spending almost 700,000 against Bera, so the DCCC could have helped here in a winnable race.    

  92. going too far in the wrong direction for SSP, you might not be entirely correct, but you certainly aren’t absolutely correct. They sensed an opportunity and used it, knowing they wouldn’t get another one for a long time. The bill wasn’t perfect, but it was a huge step in the right direction and will never go away. All those House members who decided to do the right thing but end up losing this year can, at the very least, know they achieved something that legislators for seven decades couldn’t. They certainly did more than those who might replace them are ever likely to do.

    Okay, rant over.  

  93. of the people who decide which Democratic candidates to support, the fact that people like Markey voted for HCR is a pretty big plus. (The same can be said for things like the stimulus bill.) Should they lose but want to run again in 2012, I imagine they’d have a much easier time attracting support because of the votes they made while they were in congress. I’m not sure those who voted against the health care bill or something similar and end up losing will have as easy a time trying to come back.  

  94. attracting the same level of financial support that groups like Crossroads GPS are getting? I’d guess no.  

  95. Nowhere near the same amount of cash. Actually, I don’t think there’s any way to compete against that onslaught from corporate groups and businesses. That is, unless the party folds and supports corporate interests at the expense of the individual. And that would be a sad, sad thing.

  96. the time. For weeks there were much more Young ads than Hill. Now it seems as if they are about equal, maybe slightly more for Hill. I’ve heard some SEIU radio commercials as well.  

  97. None, one, two, or all might win; they’re certainly in the competition. But they’re also the Three in terms of self-funding. Hanabusa, Seals, and Garcia are receiving DCCC help because while they’ve fundraised strongly, they can’t just self-fund.

    I think, pragmatically, it’s a combination of the self-funding ability, slightly dodgier (and perhaps less thorough) numbers in DCCC internals, and a desire to keep those races off the radar, lest Rove and Co. up the ante.

  98. That’s pure speculation on my part, but no question Bera outraised Lungren the whole cycle and has run a killer-good campaign.

    I really hope that Brown/Boxer coattails can help here.

  99. I think you may be right, CO is the only overlap. That is a hell of a cash dump into Buck’s campaign though from both the NRSC and Crossroads. They got to be worried about Bennett closing.

    Still . . . *@&!@#$%^&*()(*&^%$#@$%^!!!!!!!!

  100. Of course, they are illegally coordinating and there will be no consequences for it. The media will ignore it or claim “both sides do it” and the Democrats will file an FEC claim that will go nowhere.  

  101. that Stevie Wonder could not miss it.  I think that politics in the US (with the help of the US Supreme Ct.) just got extremely expensive and therefore, controlled even more by special interests.  What about the good guys who have little money but want to compete? I weep for our country and this scares the hell out of me.  

    My ancestors have fought in every major war since the American Revolution. Let’s hope that we are not ruining what they fought for with what we do…

  102. I live in DC and I have seen both Connolly’s and Fimian’s ads.  More Connolly than Fimian but I thought it was rather hilarious that I have seen more of these ads than people who acutally live and vote in VA.  I am not a serious TV watcher by any means.  I have seen the backpack one for Fimian and the social views and raise ones for Connolly.  

  103. …both the bad environment and the perception among insiders that the Obama Administration didn’t want outside groups involved that way.

    Yes the GOP groups would have dwarfed ours, but we would’ve had enough to make the difference in a bunch of races.

  104. …someone with insider connections the CO Democratic Party, if not an insider yourself.  I appreciate your presence and willingness to share here.

  105. Last week was my first contact with Bera’s campaign.  I got three calls in three days to speak directly with the candidate.  I took his call the second time.  It told me he was “dialing for dollars” very late in the race.  I read that as a negative.  I hope not.  Indeed, it might just show how he did so well raising cash since the start — calling while in the car, etc.    

  106. Why on Earth would they not run ads in the Indianapolis market. A good chunk of the district is in it. I mean not that I’m complaining or anything.  

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