Hoosierdem’s Doomsday House Predicts Using Professional Ratings.

I have decided to take a stab at predicting the totals of Congressional seats lost this cycle. I am going to put my formulas that I list below into the expert’s predictions to find the outcome of the upcoming election.  

As noted these are pessimistic. Consider this a worst case scenario. I myself have been saying for a while now to expect a loss in the mid fifties. Feel free to tweak the model a bit, it is not hard at all.

This is my formula for calculating Democratic seats. I see anything under tossup going to team red, most tossups breaking away from us, a significant number of lean seats and even a couple of safe members. Feel free to tell me what you think should be switched around on these. Personally I debated lowering the leans a bit. My tossup formula may be a bit on the dark side as well.

100% Lean, Likely and safe R gone.

75% tossups are gone.

40% leans D are gone.

10% Likely D are gone.

0% Safe D are gone.

This is my formula for calculating Republican seats. They keep everything under tossup. They lose half their tossups and anything above it.

0% of Lean Likely or Safe gone

50% of Tossups are gone.

100% or Lean Likely or Safe are gone.

Here goes, I am no mathematician so please correct me if you see any errors. Many answer came out in decimals. I rounded up for .5 or higher and down for .4 and lower.  

Swing State Project


16 Lean or Likely R= 16

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

32 Lean D= 12.8 round to 13

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

=64 Seats Lost.


3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Lean D= 2

=4 seats lost.

Republicans Gain 60 seats.

Charlie Cook


22 Lean or Likely R= 22

38 Tossups= 28.5 rounds to 29

30 Lean D= 12

25 Likely D= 2.5 rounds to 3  

=66 seats lost


2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 seats lost

Republicans gain 63 Seats.


Note- So Rothenberg uses the tossup tilts method. Well I guess I should create a new formula but I will just clump all tossups together. Also I am counting R favored as Likely R.  


18 Lean or Likely R= 18  

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

15 Likely D= 1.5 round to 2

= 58 seats lost


4 Tossups= 2

2 Lean or Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 54 seats.



15 Lean Likely or Safe R = 15

37 Tossups= 27.75 round to 28

24 Lean D= 9.6 round to 10

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 55 Seat Loss


3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 51 seats.

Crystal Ball


30 Lean or Likely R= 30

29 Tossups= 21.75 round to 22.

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 60 Seat Loss


2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 57 seats.

Real Clear Politics


39 Lean or Likely R= 39

39 Tossups= 29.25 round to 29

29 Lean D= 11.6 round to 12  

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

= 83 seat loss


2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

= 3 seat loss

Republicans gain 80 seats.

Real Clear Politics is by far the worst, I never like them. Averaging all of this data together Republicans gain 64 seats total. This is more than I expect but we will see. Here’s to me being wrong!  

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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16 thoughts on “Hoosierdem’s Doomsday House Predicts Using Professional Ratings.”

  1. The GOP is going to have a difficult time defending so many Freshman Representatives in a Presidential election year when the Democratic base gets energized.

  2. isn’t 2006 or 2008. I think this year will be worse for us than it was for Republicans in 06 and 08. I thought about putting it at 60% loss for tossups, maybe that would have been better.  

  3. Anyway, difficult to judge with Cook since he has changed the way he judges things as result of the Dem waves.

  4. http://politicalwire.com/archi

    we will likely have our third wave election in a row this year, and the bigger this one is, the more likely that there will be a countervailing wave in either 2012 or 2014

    and next cycle being a Presidential race makes it seem more likely.  

  5. I think we will see A LOT of one term wonders this cycle. Assuming Obama wins re-election I think we could gain the house back. It would be a tossup.  

  6. Democrats worried about defending their 2006 freshman class in ’08, but Obama ran away with the Presidential race and Dems gained even more seats instead. If Obama loses in two years, Republicans may gain a modest amount of seats in the House (the “ones that got away” this year plus retirements and victims of redistricting.)

  7. While it’s true that there will be a lot more Republicans winning districts that they will have a hard time keeping next cycle regardless, there are other things to consider.

    It’s not that I’d be concerned so much with Obama getting ousted in a landslide, as I can’t imagine anyone on the GOP side cutting so much into the Democratic vote as to endanger what would otherwise be safe seats for Team Blue.  

    There’s the retirement factor. Whenever a party loses control the House, it generally leads to a fair number of retirements by relatively senior lawmakers who don’t want to deal with being in the minority after being on top of the heap. Sometimes those are in safe seats, but sometimes they’re not. If Henry Waxman walks away, he’ll almost certainly be succeeded by a fellow Democrat. Ike Skelton (assuming he even survives this year), not so much.

    And the redistricting factor. In the short run, red states gain and blue states lose. (This isn’t necessarily bad news for Dems in the long run, since what’s making many of the red states grow is also likely to make them less red – but we’re not talking about long run trends here.) Also, there are going to be a fair number of partisan gerrymanders, probably mostly Republican ones, that will claim a few Democratic seats. (Again, some of them could prove, as they did in 2006/08, to be dummymanders that will backfire on them, but we’re talking about the first or at most second election cycle here.)

  8. I guarantee, there will be at least one state where the Republican redistricting majority takes solid R area from a Safe R congressman, and replaces it with other area that will result in the district having a safe PVI on paper. However, the unfamiliar territory coupled with a strong D challenger means the Republican loses.

    Now that I think about it, you could just as easily swap R and D up there. (I guess I’m hoping that’s not the case…)

  9. with brand new gerrymanders in place (and with no time passage to have weakened them), there may also be more safer freshmen and sophomore House members than in an average year. (On both sides)

  10. I mean, there’s one kind of “mountain dew” that I might turn to in a funk, but drink a gallon of that and you’d be a dead man.

    A gallon of the kind they sell in stores, meanwhile, would just make me so jittery that I’d give myself a tonsilectomy trying to brush my teeth.

  11. It helps me get over my anger at anti-Mountain Dew crusader/dentist hoosierdem.

    But no, I’m not actually going to drink Mountain Dew to get over depression. That’s what beer is for.

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