House Poll Dump: 10/25

AR-02: OnMessage for Tim Griffin (10/13-14, likely voters, 6/13-14 in parens):

Joyce Elliott (D): 40 (34)

Tim Griffin (R): 52 (50)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

GA-02, GA-08: Landmark Communications (R) (10/19, likely voters):

Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 45

Mike Keown (R): 47

Jim Marshall (D-inc): 35

Austin Scott (R): 51

(MoE: ±3.5%)

KY-03: Braun Research for cn|2 (10/18-19, likely voters, 9/20-21 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D-inc): 58 (53)

Todd Lally (R): 31 (30)

Undecided: 3 (12)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus finding: Jack Conway leads Rand Paul by 54-36 in this district, up from 51-39 in the previous Braun poll.

KY-06: Mason-Dixon for the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT-TV (10/15-19, likely voters):

Ben Chandler (D-inc): 48

Andy Barr (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LA-02: Zata|3 for local Dems (10/20, likely voters):

Cedric Richmond (D): 53

Joe Cao (R-inc): 36

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-01, ME-02: Critical Insights (10/13-17, likely voters, 10/10-11 in parens):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 45 (48)

Dean Scontras (R): 40 (33)

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49 (43)

Jason Levesque (R): 30 (30)

(MoE: ±5.7%)

MI-15: EPIC/MRA (10/16-19, likely voters):

John Dingell (D-inc): 53

Rob Steele (R): 36  

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-22: Abacus Associates for Maurice Hinchey (10/20-21, likely voters):

Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 51

George Phillips (R): 34

(MoE: ±4.9%)

RI-01: Public Opinion Strategies for the NRCC (10/20-21, likely voters):

David Cicilline (D-inc): 41

John Loughlin (R): 41

(MoE: ±5.7%)

TN-08: The Tarrance Group for Stephen Fincher (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Roy Herron (D): 35 (36)

Stephen Fincher (R): 50 (47)

Undecided: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±5.8%)

WA-02: SurveyUSA (10/19-21, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

Rick Larsen (D-inc): 50 (50)

John Koster (R): 46 (47)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

104 thoughts on “House Poll Dump: 10/25”

  2. I think it is reasonable to wager that Fincher is around 50%. Unfortunately I expect Herron is going to need a lot of effort and luck to get near 45% on election day and avoid an absolutely crushing defeat. Herron got the best scenario possible with Fincher and was still too inept to make it competitive in the homestretch.  

  3. Dingell is strong.

    I know anecdotal evidence isn’t worth much, but I have a sister who works with a bunch of people who have worked with Rob Steele.  None of them are voting for him.

  5. POS has a pretty good reputation when polling for other clients, but why have their NRCC polls been so off at times? I have a hard time believing this seat is on the verge of going Red.

  6. Senate mirrors SurveyUSA: 47% Buck, 47% Bennet. 45% of the undecided are Republicans; undecideds also back Tancredo 53%-23%.

    Governor: 47% Hickenlooper, 44% Tancredo, 5% Maes.

  8. It’s a Republican poll, granted, but his numbers are falling into line with e.g. Alan Boyd’s next door.

    A lot of the Blue Dog archipelago in the Deep South is sinking into the sea of Red this election.  Bobbie Bright, Gene Taylor, and Mike Ross could be the sole survivors in Red districts.

  9. That’s a pretty weak internal for Griffin to release. You’re supposed to win this by 15-20 points, why release a poll showing you’re up on 12 and your opponent has gained 4 points? What was he trying to accomplish by releasing that?

    Also, I remember that StephenCLE predicited a long, long time ago that Chellie Pingree could be upset this year. Well, here we are, 8 days away from the election, and she leads by only 45-40 in a non-partisan poll. Good work, Stephen!

  11. From pollster Anzalone-Liszt. Oct. 20-24.

    Without third party candidates:

    Giannoulias (D) 41%

    Kirk (R)        39%

    With third party candidates:

    Giannoulias (D) 38%

    Kirk (R)        36%

    Jones (G)       7%

    Labno (L)       4%

Comments are closed.