Poll Roundup: 10/12

Another fire hose blast of polls…

  • DE-Sen, DE-AL: Monmouth University (10/8-11, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 57

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 38

    John Carney (D): 53

    Glen Urquhart (R): 44

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Magellan (10/10, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 54

    Christine O’Donnell (R): 36

    Undecided: 7

    (MoE: ±3.3%)

  • FL-Sen: Public Policy Polling (10/9-10, likely voters, 8/21-22 in parens):
    Kendrick Meek (D): 21 (17)

    Marco Rubio (R): 44 (40)

    Charlie Crist (I): 33 (32)

    Undecided: 3 (8)

    Charlie Crist (I): 46

    Marco Rubio (R): 46

    Kendrick Meek (D): 41

    Marco Rubio (R): 48

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

  • IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Southern Illinois University (9/30-10/10, registered voters):

    Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37

    Mark Kirk (R): 37

    Pat Quinn (D): 30

    Bill Brady (R): 38

    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • LA-Sen: Magellan (10/10, likely voters):

    Charlie Melancon (D): 35

    David Vitter (R-inc): 51

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±2.9%)

  • WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Ipsos (10/9-11, likely voters):

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44

    Ron Johnson (R): 51

    Tom Barrett (D): 42

    Scott Walker (R): 52

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • WA-Sen: Elway (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/9-12 in parens):
    Patty Murray (D-inc): 55 (50)

    Dino Rossi (R): 40 (41)

    Undecided: 5 (9)

    (MoE: ±4.5%)

  • AZ-Gov: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, registered voters, 6/30-7 in parens):

    Terry Goddard (D): 35 (25)

    Jan Brewer (R-inc): 38 (45)

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

  • FL-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):
    Alex Sink (D): 44 (43)

    Rick Scott (R): 45 (49)

    Undecided: 9 (7)

    (MoE: ±3%)

  • IA-Gov: Global Strategies Group (10/7-10, likely voters):

    Chet Culver (D-inc): 39

    Terry Branstad (R): 47

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • MI-Gov: Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White and Associates (10/7, likely voters):

    Virg Bernero (D): 37

    Rick Snyder (R): 50

    (MoE: ±2.1%)

  • OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.com (10/3-7, likely voters, July in parens):

    Jari Askins (D): 38 (40)

    Mary Fallin (R): 54 (46)

    (MoE: ±5.2%)

  • CA-11: SurveyUSA (10/8-11, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 42

    David Harmer (R): 48

    David Christiansen (AIP): 4

    Undecided: 5

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • IL-11: Anzalone Liszt for Debbie Halvorson (10/5-7, likely voters):

    Debbie Halvorson (D-inc): 41

    Adam Kinzinger (R): 45

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • TX-27: OnMessage Inc for Blake Farenthold (dates unknown, registered voters):

    Solomon Ortiz (D-inc): 36

    Blake Farenthold (R): 44

    Ed Mishou (L): 2

    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • VA-05: SurveyUSA (10/8-11, likely voters):

    Random Digit Dialing:

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 41

    Rob Hurt (R): 52

    Registration Based Sampling:

    Tom Perriello (D-inc): 39 (35)

    Rob Hurt (R): 56 (58)

    (MoE: ±4%)

  • 94 thoughts on “Poll Roundup: 10/12”

    1. What a story. I don’t understand how a pollster can just keep finding weird numbers – and now they acknowledge it too. What’s certain is that the 30% margin they found over the summer are now entirely discredited.

      The biggest “!!” among these numbers is undoubtedly Elway’s WA-Sen… Hard to know what to make of it, surely as good a poll as Dems have gotten in months in any state!

    2. Why did you only post the registered voters part of AZ-GOV poll? Brewer is comfy ahead among likely voters in poll. First indie poll of CA-11, for a change a SUSA poll that makes sense.

    3. I asked this in the last thread where this poll was mentioned and never got an answer: did they have a Spanish option? A poll in a Hispanic-majority district isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on if poll respondents can’t choose Spanish.

    4. What does AIP stand for? I was thinking Alaska Independence Party, but clearly, that doesn’t apply to CA.

    5. anybody who has done recent phonebanking can tell you a flaw of going off phone numbers of registered voters. Most will not respond (notice how they never note how many numbers were called) and a lot of voters don’t put functioning/any phone numbers on their voter reg.

      Phone-polling is becoming less relevant these days.

    6. hoo! doggie, thems some stinky house no.’s. Each uglier than the last. McNerney down, Halvorson down in her own internal, Ortiz in trouble? For serious? Ortiz?  

    7. Winthrop University (741 likely voters, 10-5/10)

      Jim DeMint (started the recession) (R) 58

      Tom Clements (The Mean Green Machine) (G) 12

      Alvin Greene (is on the scene) (D) 11

      (PS: in 2014, can SC Dems at least avoid a one-on-one primary for the Senate, since their one-on-one Senate primaries tend to involve the more embarrassing candidate winning, while a 3-way primary would lead to the embarrassing candidate going to a runoff)

    8. I’d give my left nut (excuse my French) to see Brewer fall.  I can’t for the life of me understand how any self-respecting person would vote for that dunce.  This woman would have a hard time being taken seriously in a state house race where I live, let alone being taken as a serious candidate for government.

      The worst thing Obama ever did was raiding the Senate and governors’ offices for his administration.

      BTW, Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White and Associates will be taking another poll they’ll release by the end of the week for the Michigan governors race that will cover a time period after our one and only gubernatorial debate.  I believe EPIC/MRA will also be posting one, this week to reflect the change after the debate.

    9. Is Meek dropping out?  Crist is making a major announcement tomorrow.

      Only other thing I can think of is an endorsement.  Has Bloomberg endorsed him yet?

    10. Tennessee 8

      D: Roy Herron, 37%

      R: Stephen Fincher, 47%

      Washington 3

      D: Denny Heck, 40%

      R: Jaime Herrera, 42%

      Arkansas 1

      D: Chad Causey, 34%

      R: Rick Crawford, 46%

      Wisconsin 5

      D: Julie Lassa, 35%

      R: Sean Duffy, 44%

      Illinois 10

      D: Dan Seals, 49%

      R: Robert Dold, 37%

      Hawaii 1

      D: Colleen Hanabusa, 41%

      R: Charles Djou, 45%

      Pennsylvania 7

      D: Bryan Lentz, 39%

      R: Patrick Meehan, 40%

      New Hampshire 2

      D: Ann Kuster, 42%

      R: Charlie Bass, 45%

      Michigan 1

      D: Gary McDowell, 39%

      R: Dan Benishek, 42%

      West Virginia 1

      D: Mike Oliverio, 42%

      R: David McKinley, 39%


    11. Topline seems about right but as usual there are some funky crosstabs. Harmer with a 52-41 lead with Hispanics?  

    12. Because it wasn’t just a Likely Voter model but a potentially dubious “Most Likely Voter” model. Rocky Mountain poll doesn’t clarify what that’s supposed to mean; it could just be another way of saying Likely Voters, or it could be some kind of low turnout model. “Likely Voters” is a standard term in polling these days, so I don’t know why they wouldn’t just say that if they mean it.

    13. Because there’s no details at all about what they mean by “most likely voters”. No sample size, no reported margin of error, or anything.

      I’m following the Pollster.com approach on this one.

    14. In VA-05, they still have Hurt winning 18-34 by 15 points.  They have 26% of liberals going for Hurt!  One in four!

      SurveyUSA house polls are a load of crap.

      In CA-11, they have McNerney losing the 18-34 by 4 points.  They have the Republican winning Hispanics by 11 points.

      I don’t know enough about CA-11 to dispute those but my gut feeling is that SurveyUSA house polls are a load of crap.

    15. They are a pretty conservative bunch. Pre-2008 they were affiliated with the Constitution Party, which is basically one of the three minor parties with some degree of national infrastructure (the others being the Green Party and the Libertarian Party).

      However, in 2008 Alan Keyes tried to run as the CP candidate for President. He was rejected by the party in favor of Ron Paul acolyte Chuck Baldwin, but in California a faction of sore losers nominated Keyes instead. The case went to the SoS, who arbitrarily recognized the Keyes faction.

      They happen to have a large chunk of voters in California because the word Independent is in their name. Many people don’t even realize they joined the party.

    16. Sure, McNerny isn’t Driehaus. But no one has been thinking he’s safe either. He’s usually on people’s toss-up or lean Dem list.

    17. 538 has Harmer a slight favorite and SUSA has been more right leaning than Rassmusan this cycle so IMHO this isn’t that bad of poll.

    18. if there’s to be any chance of keeping the house.

      My hope was that his district was just in a region that had shifted too strongly to elect a Republican again. I mean really, it’s suburban SF.

      I guess not.

    19. on the table. 538 I take with a grain of salt, though I haven’t intentionally sought it ought in years.  

    20. Is what Hurt wins those over 65. I mean really? The younger generation is full of UVA students and I have a hard time seeing Hurt doing better with them then the 65 and over crowd.  

    21. They have really found some questionable results this cycle. They keep showing Republicans killing among 18-34 voters in Washington and losing big among seniors.

      I have no idea how they keep getting these results, but their polls are consistent outliers and I’m highly dubious of their findings.

    22. Nearly half of CA-11 is in San Joaquin County which cannot reasonably be called “suburban SF,” although I suppose Tracy is getting kinda exurban these days.  White voters there are ridiculously Republican.

    23. To see her fail especially as a first generation Mexican-American. How does one totally botch their opening statement of a debate and remain viable? Even Rush Limbaugh can recite talking points.  

    24. Gradual bluing trend in the San Ramon Valley (Alameda/Contra Costa portions of the district).  Right now, maybe a slight Dem lean in an even year, tossup in a Republican year.

    25. After Crist vetoed the education bill last summer, Bloomberg said there was zero chance he would endorse Crist. In fact, the only Independent Bloomberg has endorsed thus far is Lincoln Chafee.

    26. But another mayor, Ed Koch? Not really “major” but will play well with a lot of seniors, displaced New Yorkers, and Jewish voters in Palm Beach and Broward counties.  

    27. Maybe an unconditional endorsement for Alex Sink, his CFO? That would really ingratiate him with Democrats and might give Sink a boost across the finish line.

    28. Crist’s campaign has been incompetant since the primaries.  Meek is the one with the base and the backing of a major party.  Crist should drop out.  Meek may still not win, but he’ll be in a better position to contest Rubio.

    29. Meek isn’t dropping out, but if people keep up on this theme – especially Dems – he’s going to look totally non-viable and that might hurt his turnout as well.  As A GOP supporter, I’m happy, but those who keep pushing for Meek to drop out are helping Rick Scott more than anybody else.

    30. Yesterday, I would have agreed with you. But then PPP releases its new results, and I’m not so sure.

      Perhaps more interesting at this point is what would happen if either Meek or Crist was to drop out of the race and create a one on one with Rubio. Crist and Rubio would tie at 46% each. Crist would have an overwhelming 66-31 lead with independents, but would win the Democratic vote by only a 69-20 margin.


      And then, say a couple weeks down the road, a Crist endorsement of Sink could be a big deal, further galvanizing moderates and Dems.

      Thing is, there isn’t a lot of time for all this to happen, so if it’s going to happen, they’ve got to do it soon.

    31. except hanabusa and causey, from whom i expected better. maybe herron a bit too. lentz is a pleasant surprise

    32. I was expecting much worse.

      Oliverio is up. I thought they teased that only 1 Democrat was up (Seals)?

      McDowell is behind by only three? That’s actually a comeback! Benishek’s child support problems could be taking a toll.

      Kuster’s just three points behind INCUMBENT Charlie Bass. Not bad.

      Lentz and Meehan are TIED??? This race wasn’t on anybody’s radar until this week. Lentz can win this!

      Seals has it locked up.

      WA-03 – Essentially tied! With some coattails from Murray, Heck may be able to go distance.

      Why were they so pessimistic for Dems in their preview? These are REALLY ENCOURAGING numbers.

    33. I mean they’re not good, but I’ll take Dan Seals leading by double digits and people like Bryan Lentz, Denny Heck, Annie Kuster and Gary McDowell in dead-heats any day. I’d pegged IL-10 as only tilting slightly towards Seals and figured PA-07, WA-03 and MI-01 were goners.

    34. PA-7 jumps off the page; the race has been pretty low-interest to this point. Would definitely like to see more polling here, even if it’s just dueling internals. MI-1 is another race closer than I expected, although that could just be a sign of Democrats waking up in Michigan for the first time this year.

      On the other hand, there’s blowouts in IL-10 and AR-01 that I didn’t see coming. Again, not surprised to see Seals and Crawford up, just not by that much. Also surprising to see Djou up, but I take that with a big grain of salt as Hawaii Dems can be tough to reach.

      The rest of the races look about right. Duffy and Fincher should have no trouble holding on, Heck has caught up to an invisible Jamie Herrera (if this doesn’t get her up on the air, nothing will), Bass and Kuster are in a dogfight, and I don’t think WV-01 is important because no matter who wins, the seat will be represented by a Republican in the 112th Congress. Yup, I’m being bold: Mike Oliverio will switch parties as soon as he can, and so few people vote in GOP primaries in WV that he doesn’t have to worry about a Tea Partier.

    35. No Glenn Wilson in MI-01. It looks like Wilson, a conservative Independent, is in the race to stay. He lost his campaign manager, who was a bit disgruntled as he seemed to believe Wilson would drop out if the race looked unwinnable. Nevertheless, Wilson has polled in double-digits in past polls.

    36. That Hill article from earlier today, painting a downright depressing picture for Dems about these polls, illustrates the point that most political writers don’t have much of a clue.

      They should have known, going in, that nearly all of these races favored the Republican (except 3 or so), and that close races in any of the others were a sign that, so far, Democrats in key races were actually hanging in there.

      WA-03 and NH-02 are solid numbers for the Dems. MI-01 is a real comeback story. PA-07 is a shocker.

      Surely the Hill could report its polling results better than this.

      I just tried to check the story again, but it seems to have been removed. Go figure.

    37. HI-01 worries me a bit, but we’re really seeing Democrats closing the gap in some of these districts we assumed were gone baby gone. IL-10 and MI-01 are downright shocking; if there’s an independent conservative on the ballot in the latter, too, that might be enough to put McDowell over the top if this poll is accurate. That would be a stunning reversal.

    38. I’m assuming there is a slight R lean in these polls.  PPP had Hanabusa +1, and I trust them more.  So probably toss up races in WA-03, MI-01, NH-2, PA-07?  Sounds like great news to me.  Slight Dem lead in WV-01 and blow out in IL-10?  I’ll take that!  Keeping the fight in these districts and a good GOTV nationwide and you might convince me we can salvage the House.

    39. ….that Arkansas is gonna be our ugliest state in 2010 and every Democrat on the ballot is gonna be wiped out.  That includes Mike Ross.  And it also includes Mike Beebe.  He’s the 2010 equivalent of Roy Barnes in 2002.  Take it to the bank.

    40. I just don’t see it happening.  Meek has given no signals that he’d even consider it and he’s got Clinton and Obama coming to stump for him.  Frankly, I suspect he’s hoping to come in second for the sake of pride.  And I really do think you’d have serious backlash in the black community if he were pushed out.

    41. It’s the third most Republican district in Washington after the two eastern districts, and goes GOP when races are within 10 points. Expect Rossi to win here and possibly have coattails unless he collapses in the next three weeks (or if Elway is right in their forecasting of the race.)

    42. Because they are trying to drive a preconceived media story line.

      And they did say one one.  I guess they have troubling counting.

      The big disappointment to me is WI-7.  But even that has so many undecided that it’s winnable.

    43. if everyone was on the same page – and that could take a miracle. Meek would have to have thrown in the towel and signed on. The state and national Dems would have to have the storyline all mapped out. Everyone would have to present enthusiasm about the move. It would definitely be a high hurdle.

    44. I just mean that he’s a long-time former Congressman that most everyone in the district knows. If there’s a desire to “throw all the bums out,” he’s not going to benefit from it.

    45. A mixed bag for both sides.  But what it suggests to me is that if this set of seats is that close, that indicates that more Dem friendly districts are less likely to be toss-ups.  I’m beginning to be somewhat hopeful about HI-01 and HI-Gov, though.

    46. …presumably the hardest of hard-core partisans, wouldn’t that make Oliverio more vulnerable to a purity troll challenge? Isn’t that more or less what happened in Delaware?

    47. I remember during the primary he ran well to the right of Mollohan, who’s a pretty conservative Dem himself, and he’s more conservative than many Republicans in the WV state legislature. His website openly challenges the constitutionality of the healthcare bill, a bolder move than many Republicans have pulled. Also, the tone of his campaign has more anti-Washington Democrats than anyone else, even Bobby Bright. I just get the feeling that he’s more of an opportunist than a team player and would take the easy way out by changing parties.

      Also, he’s got to be seeing that even the popular Manchin is in trouble and the Democratic Party is quickly losing its luster in his state. If he wins, down the road his district will trend rightward and he’ll have to worry more about Republicans than Democrats challenging him. Changing parties before he is seating will give potential primary challengers nothing to attack him on–not even a vote for a Democrat for speaker. I see him as a Nathan Deal type, changing parties between sessions of Congress and not missing a beat in the transition from conservative Democrat to conservative Republican.

    48. Ralph Hall despite his positions stayed pretty loyal to the Democratic Party and only switched when he was explicitly blackmailed by Karl Rove and Tom DeLay during the infamous Texas redistricting.  I don’t think I ever heard anyone while making a party switch be so explicit that he didn’t want to.

      Olivero on the other hand may not need such an extraordinary push.

      That said we need every seat we can.  And at this point facing this many potential seat losses I’m not going quibble on the quality of the teammates.

    49. I just checked the WA elections site (which is great, by the way). Looks like Rossi carried the district by less than 1 percent, while losing the state by 6+ points. So he performed considerably better there.

      However, Murray beat Nethercutt by 3% in the district in ’04.

      So let’s call it a draw, and strike the coattails bit. I was getting a little worked up. 😉 At the very least, it looks like Heck could make a real one-on-one race of it – without much in the way of aid or disadvantage higher up on the ticket.

    50. not sure these polls with close to 20% undecideds tell us much. I mean I would assume that in PA-07, 40% and 40% is the baseline levels and the last 10% is the hardest to get.  

    51. Herrera is going for the young, attractive Martha Coakley award. She did so well in the top two primary, so I have no idea why she all of a sudden seems incapable of running a good campaign and consolidating the Republican vote. Heck’s a good but not great candidate, so there really is no excuse for her to lose this after “Prefers R” got more votes than “Prefers D” in the primary. And yet, she may lose anyway.

    52. but they’re all open seats, so it probably makes sense that the undecided group would be larger, as many people are just getting to know the candidates for the first time.

    53. though I can’t imagine she’s not also getting polling from her campaign and the party committees.

      Given the national headwinds (which seems a little lighter in the Northwest, though still present), she should have a built-in advantage. But it hasn’t gotten her much yet.

    54. been invisible in the district for the past 4 weeks. Heck is a great campaigner and he and surrogates have been everywhere. I know of at least 3 former Democratic legislators who have gone to the district to doorbell with him.

    55. The Democratic brand is still strong in West Virginia, and he has the special distinction of being the “right” kind of Democrat (i.e. not much of one). While he might survive a GOP primary ‘cos of what you said, he’d have to face another “right kind” of democrat in the general, who will have significant advantages just because of historical democratic voting patterns.  He’s had the opportunity to switch for many years, but it hasn’t benefited him to do so.  A right wing democrat who is even more right wing than any republican is in very good shape for his district.  He can’t be attacked on any side.

    56. There, the Democrats have BIG majorities in both chambers and a massive registration advantage.  However, they are coal state, labor Democrats.  Quite a few Democrats (such as Oliverio) in the legislature are more conservative than the Republicans there.

    57. to participate in polls, I doubt you have strong reasons to worry about Hawaii, but we’ll see, won’t we?

    58. ….it would be gone for generations.  Hawaiian voters will behave with Djou as they do with all incumbents….continue to re-elect him until he’s 106 years old.

    59. I think the tiebreaker in this argument will be Manchin.  He’s the “right kind” of Democrat, and if he loses, that will be a signal that even the “right kind” will have serious trouble in any federal election.  So expect Oliviero to be more likely to change if Raese wins, much less likely if the Joe-mentum pulls the Gov over the finish line.

    60. Does someone have an explanation on why Culver is polling so terribly. I realize he’s a Dem in a GOP year in a swing state, which would make things challenging for him.

      But is there any specific reason why he should be so far behind so consistently? Was Brandstad really that popular during his tenure?

    61. And Culver’s waging only a competent campaign…and has only been doing that for about the last few months.  By the time he got campaign staff turmoil sorted out, it was already May.  Also, the Iowa papers love Branstad.  I don’t really get it — the guy seems like a temperamental old coot to me.  But then I feel the same way about Tommy Thompson, and I wouldn’t want to face him in a statewide race either.

    62. We need decent Senate candidates to begin with.  Michael Cone and Vic Rawl may be less embarrassing than the nominees who beat them, but neither had statewide name recognition.  We need a big name from a state position, or a bigshot in the legislature, to be a candidate.

    63. Roy Barnes was already having troubles with teachers and the flag issue in 2002.

      Beebe and Barnes and not comparable.  Beebe is safe.

    64. Mark Pryor might be the only Dem in the delegation.  Beebe survives though. If he doesn’t,then it will be a really bad night.  

    65. Perhaps more interesting at this point is what would happen if either Meek or Crist was to drop out of the race and create a one on one with Rubio. Crist and Rubio would tie at 46% each. Crist would have an overwhelming 66-31 lead with independents, but would win the Democratic vote by only a 69-20 margin. That 20% of Democrats for Rubio suggests that some segment of Meek’s supporters would be none too pleased about him being forced out of the race and would not gravitate toward Crist.

      In a head to head between Rubio and Meek, Rubio would lead 48-41. Meek performs weaker than Crist because although he would lead with independents by an 11 point margin that’s nothing compared to the 35 point advantage that Crist has with that group.


    66. How come Crist has such strong indy support only when Meek is out?  Why aren’t independents coagulating around Crist to begin with?  Why are a big fraction apparently going to Meek instead?

    67. Some people have already voted for Meek, and others would probably vote for the Democrat, blissfully unaware (or uncaring), that he’d technically dropped out.

      It’s too chuffing late.

    68. Having lived in TX-27 until last month, I think it’s kind of a reflection on Ortiz.  No word on whether there’s a Spanish option, but from my experience in that district, most people who are registered to vote can at least understand English.

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