SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition)

AK-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Scott McAdams (D): 23 (22)

Joe Miller (R): 37 (38)

Lisa Murkowski (I): (37) 36

Undecided: 2 (2)

(MoE: ±3%)

Look at this crap question wording:

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today and the candidates were Scott McAdams, the Democrat and Joe Miller, the Republican, who would you be more likely to vote for or would you write in the name of Lisa Murkowski, who is also running?

AK-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 36 (38)

Sean Parnell (R-inc): 62 (57)

Undecided: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±3%)

AR-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

John Boozman (R): 55

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

AR-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 62

Jim Keet (R): 33

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

CA-Sen: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (42)

Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (35)

Undecided: 13 (17)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

CA-Gov: PPIC (10/10-17, likely voters, 9/19-26 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 44 (37)

Meg Whitman (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 16 (18)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 20 (23)

Marco Rubio (R): 46 (42)

Charlie Crist (I): 32 (31)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 46 (45)

Rick Scott (R): 49 (47)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

IL-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/23-26 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 40 (36)

Mark Kirk (R): 42 (40)

LeAlan Jones (G): 4 (8)

Michael Labno (L): 3 (3)

Undecided: 10 (13)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

IL-Sen: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DSCC (10/13-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R): 36

Michael Labno (L): 3

LeAlan Jones (G): 4

Undecided: 15

(MoE: ±4%)

KY-Sen: Mason-Dixon (PDF) for KY media (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jack Conway (D): 43

Rand Paul (R): 48

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4%)

MA-10: NMB Research (R) for the NRCC (10/6-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Bill Keating (D): 42

Jeff Perry (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.9%)

ME-Gov: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Libby Mitchell (D): 28

Paul LePage (R): 33

Elliot Cutler (I): 14

Shawn Moody (I): 5

Kevin Scott (I): 0

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-01: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chellie Pingree (D-inc): 49

Dean Scontras (R):  33

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±6.2%)

ME-02: Pan Atlantic (PDF) (10/11-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Michaud (D-inc): 49

Jason Levesque (R): 29

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±6.2%)

MI-07: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Schauer (D-inc): 45

Tim Walberg (R): 39

Other: 7

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5%)

MI-09: EPIC/MRA for MI media (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Gary Peters (D-inc): 48

Rocky Raczkowski (R): 43

Other: 4

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±5%)

MO-04: Wilson Research (R) (10/17-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ike Skelton (D-inc): 42

Vicky Hartzler (R): 42

(MoE: ±5.7%)

NY-22: Magellan  (R) (10/19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Maurice Hinchey (D-inc): 43

George Phillips (R): 43

(MoE: ±2.9%)

NY-Sen: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):

Chuck Schumer (D-inc): 67 (63)

Jay Townsend (R): 28 (30)

Undecided: 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-Sen-B: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 9/16-18 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 60 (57)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (31)

Undecided: 9 (12)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-Gov: Siena (PDF) (10/14-18, likely voters, 10/3-4 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 63 (56)

Carl Paladino (R): 26 (32)

Undecided: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus: Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Dan Donovan (R) in the AG race, 44-37. Incumbent Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Harry Wilson in the comptroller race, 49-32.

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/12-17, likely voters, 9/29-10/3 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 34 (36)

Rob Portman (R): 55

Undecided: 10 (8)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

OH-Sen: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (41)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (52)

Undecided: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

OH-Gov: Opinion Research (PDF) for CNN/Time (10/15-19, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 48 (44)

John Kasich (R): 47 (51)

Undecided: 2 (1)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

OR-01: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/16-18, likely voters, no trendlines):

David Wu (D-inc): 51

Rob Corniles (R): 42

Don LaMunyon (C): 2

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PA-04: Susquehanna (10/16-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jason Altmire (D-inc): 47

Keith Rothfus (R): 35

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

WA-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (10/14-16, likely voters, 7/27-8/1 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (49)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

Note: Old trendlines.

WA-Sen: Marist (PDF) for McClatchy Newspapers (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48

Dino Rossi (R): 47

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4%)

214 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/21 (Morning Edition)”

  1. That looks to me what that AR-Sen poll is saying.  55-41 seems about right for Arkansas’s basic party ID these days; that would also help to explain the tightening in AR-01.

  3. Sunshine State News Poll: FL-22: Allen West leads Rep. Ron Klein 47-44. This is tough. Cook moved this race to Toss Up yesterday before this poll came out, probably has similar inside info.

  11. Yowza!  The numbers for Fisher in the Opinion Research poll are realistically depressing, so that doesn’t appear to be just a favorable sample issue.  Probably not actually leading, given that Qpac gave him a 10-point deficit yesterday, but single digits at least, and hopefully low single digits.

  12. So says Alan Abramowitz:

    An examination of some of the internals from the latest Gallup survey of likely voters leads to the conclusion that these results are wildly implausible. First, Gallup shows a much larger percentage of Republicans (55% Republican identifiers and leaners vs. 40% Democratic identifiers and leaners) and conservatives (51% conservative vs. 28% moderates and 18% liberals) than we’ve ever seen in a modern election. They also show a smaller percentage of voters under the age of 30 (7%) and a larger percentage of voters over the age of 65 (27%) than we’ve seen in any modern election. But that’s not all. The candidate preference results for some subgroups of voters are just wildly implausible.

    Gallup’s latest likely voter survey shows a generic Republican leading a generic Democrat by a whopping 28 points among whites, 62% to 34%. To put those numbers in perspective, in 1994, according to national exit poll data, Republicans only won the white vote by 16 points, 58% to 42%, and that was their best showing since the advent of exit polling. Gallup is telling us that right now the Republican lead among whites who are likely to vote is 12 points larger than the GOP margin among whites in 1994.

    But that’s not the most implausible result in the latest Gallup likely voter survey. Among nonwhites other than blacks, a group that comprises about 13% of likely voters, a generic Republican is leading a generic Democrat by 10 points, 52% to 42%. That’s a group that voted Democratic by a 2-1 margin in the 2006 midterm election. Moreover, it’s a group that has never given a majority of its vote to Republican candidates for Congress in any election since the advent of exit polling. According to the 2006 exit poll results, about two-thirds of these “other nonwhite” voters are Latinos. How plausible is it that at a time when the Republican Party is closely associated with stridently anti-immigrant policies that Latino voters are moving in droves toward Republican candidates? Not plausible at all, especially when Gallup’s results are directly contradicted by other recent polls of Latino voters.

  13. With no Senate race and a 20-point GOP blowout in the Governor’s race, I think we’re gonna get smashed there this year downballot.  While it’s almost impossible to imagine Dingell will be defeated in a D+13 district, the likely suppressed turnout could make it closer than what most of us expect.  

  16. If there was one battleground Senate race that had the potential to break for the Democrat, it seemed to be Illinois, but the last two nonpartisan polls have indicated it’s breaking the other way.  All hope is not lost, but yesterday’s Hill poll showing Phil Hare down by seven was a very ominous sign of the tea leaves in Illinois.  Is it not a safe assumption that if Alexi is performing as badly in IL-17 as Hare is that he won’t be winning the Senate race statewide?

  17. I live in Hinchey’s district– Hinchey has had competitive challenges in the past, and certainly there is a possibility that a Republican could win this seat at some point.  This poll, however, is a Republican poll in a year when the polls may be wrong in general.

    I think that lots of polls have a serious problem with systematic errors this year. Cell phones are part of the problem, but the biggest problem, I think, is misinterpretation of “voter enthusiasm” results to mean that a high number of people who identify as “Republican” will turn out in a year when nearly half of Tea Partiers falsely claim to be “Independent” on surveys.  This group of fake “Independents” could be as much as 7-10% of the electorate, and you should expect this to be subtracted from the “Republican” turnout. Yet many samples claim the highest percentage of “Republicans” of any election since the invention of modern polling after the 1936 Readers’ Digest survey disaster, in which Alf Landon was predicted to win on the basis of a totally unrepresentative sample.

  21. the firm involved has been accused of pushpolling in the past, and Skelton is beating Hartzler on favorability numbers by at least 15 points in their survey.. so one could suspect that they asked the question, got favorable numbers, asked some stuff, and then asked again and picked the 2nd number.

    On the air, the DCCC is hitting Hartzler on the military stuff, the NRCC is hitting Skelton on the usual BS… and aside from that, I’m not seeing a lot right now.

    For someone who wrote about “Winning God’s Way”, Hartzler’s campaign sure is based on a lot of lying and distortion.

  22. “We hunt liberal, tree-hugging Democrats, although it does seem like a waste of good ammunition.”

    Dick Gumshoe thinking, looking left Dick Gumshoe thinking, looking right

  23. http://www.dailytexanonline.co…

    home of Austin, UT, heavily Dem.  we have no excuse early voting here, which started Monday.

    “This year’s early voting turnout in Travis County during the first three days nearly doubled the turnout during the same time of the 2006 midterm elections, but the University early voting booths posted only a 4.5-percent increase over the 2006 election cycle, when Democrats took control of both the U.S. House and Senate.”

    the early vote at UT is up, but not up as much as some other parts of the county.

  24. was funding OH-Sen but not NC-Sen.  I never thought I’d see polls showing Fisher down by 15 and Marshall down by 8, but that’s what’s happened.  Richard Burr is one lucky SOB.

  32. on the grounds that he may have lied on his disclosure forms, a violation that can result in expulsion from the ballot if the court rules against Rivera.

  33. The Buzz reports on the early numbers of voting in FL.  The numbers themselves are being highlighted by the GOP, but they are real numbers.  I’m a bit surprised by them, frankly, and if this trend holds, I would expect the GOP to come out of Florida with +4 seats in the house, which is 10% of what they need overall.

  34. http://people-press.org/report…

    50-43 in last poll.  Independents going Republican by 19.  Dems lead in NE by 1 and trail in west by 2, while losing midwest by 16 and south by 18.

    If these are the actual numbers, hard to escape conclusion that Democrats will lose the house, and more than 50 seats.

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