SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)

  • IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.
  • KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.
  • OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):
  • Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

    Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

    Undecided: 8 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):
  • Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

    John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

    Undecided: 7 (7)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.
  • NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):
  • Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

    Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

    Undecided: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CO-03: Morans.
  • IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.
  • MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.
  • SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.
  • Fundraising:

    • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
    • NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

    SSP TV:

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
    • FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
    • FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
    • MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

    Independent Expenditures:

    258 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)”

    1. shot a campy ad depicting “hicky” West Virginians in a studio in Philadelphia, with the following casting call:

      “We are going for a ‘Hicky’ Blue Collar look. These characters are from West Virginia so think coal miner/trucker looks.”

      Is this a potential opening, or no big deal?

    2. I’ve seen the MS-1 DCCC ad running in the Memphis market. Focuses on Alan Nunnelee’s tax record and support of the “fair tax”. The ad is a little corny and cartoonish, but fairly effective in relaying the message in a clear and concise manner.

    3. I know, I know. The Reeps here will say this confirms all the others polls and show I’m a crazy sore loser. But before anyone starts Reid’s political funeral, Ralston yet again calls BS on it AND reveals what I’ve been suspecting all along.

      Private polling out there by reputable pollsters shows identical results — Reid up a bit. But starting 2 think magic 8 ball is better tool.

      So anyone out there want to guess why many public polls say one thing (tie or Angle lead) while the private polls say something totally different (Reid slightly ahead)?

    4. All the polling is moving in the republican direction again, especially in the Senate races.  The generic ballot is moving back in the R direction too.  

      That D bounce of the last weeks might’ve only been temporary.

    5. But its not 2008. Its 2010. I think its time to face reality. Reid is clearly slipping in Nevada and spin isn’t gonna change that fact. The negative ads have failed to sink Angle and has the election draws near voters ate gonna decided whether they like Reid or not. Also Ralston is no longer acting has a neutral journalist on this race anymore, his comments look like Reid campaign t.p trying to bat down each poll that’s out that’s unfavorable to Reid.

    6. Not holding fire for 2012 then. Lots of people there who are being written off. Encouraging to see. Has to based on something.

    7. Via TPM:

      Lieberman’s approval rating stands at only 31%, with 57% disapproval — even lower than the 36%-54% for Sen. Chris Dodd, who is retiring. Broken down by party, Lieberman’s rating is 20%-69% among Democrats, 46%-41% among Republicans, and 31%-56% among independents.

      Respondents were also asked this question: “Generally speaking in 2012 will you vote to reelect Joe Lieberman or would you rather replace him with someone else?” The answer was only 24% to re-elect him, against 66% who would vote to replace him.

      PPP also tested three-way race for Lieberman, Rep. Chris Murphy as the Democratic nominee and Republican financial commentator and Ron Paul activist Peter Schiff (who recently came in third place in the Republican primary for Senate) as the Republican candidate. The result was Murphy 39%, Schiff 25%, and Lieberman 19%.

      Another three-way race put in Gov. Jodi Rell, who is retiring this year with relatively decent approval ratings, as the Republican candidate. This time it’s Murphy 37%, Rell 29%, and Lieberman 17%.

      In a direct two-way match, Murphy leads Lieberman by 47%-33%.


    8. The DCCC expenditures make me somewhere between worried and alarmed.  On the one hand, it’s good that we’re still fighting in VA-05 (Go Tom!) and MD-01, MS-01, MI-01, the OH bunch, and going after the pickup in FL-25, but some of the other buys are leaning toward the fight being in a range that means likely GOP takeover.  A huge media buy in SC-05 is bad news.  If the battleground is really moving toward MO-04, IA-03, CO-03, TX-23, IL-14, IL-17, CA-11, NC-08, that’s big trouble.  If it continues towards OR-05, GA-02, IN-02, that’s a slaughter.

    9. Not particularly reliable but…

      NH-Gov: 51% Lynch (D), 41% Stephen (R) (ARG 10/3-5)

      NH-Sen: 47% Ayotte (R), 42% Hodes (D) (ARG 10/3-5)  

    10. Poll doesn’t pass the smell test:

      Larson won by about 45% in ’08. I don’t have the ’06 numbers.

      This is the same pollster that had Murphy down yesterday. They’ll be reporting on Himes later today. I imagine he’ll be down. I believe the pollster has Republican ties, seemed to help drive the narrative for Scott Brown, if I remember correctly.

    11. What if Ritter had no retired and everything else happened the same? McInnis imploded, Maes won the nomination, and Tancredo ran as a 3rd party. Tancredo and Maes ran the same exact campaigns they are running now, except with attacks on Ritter instead of Hickenlooper. With Ritter’s unpopularity, would that be a close race between Tancredo and Ritter?  

    12. Does anyone know what Jim Talent is thinking these days? Is he likely to run? Is he still thinking about it? If not, who would run?  

    13. compared to Raese’s asshole “I inherited it” comments and his marble driveway in Florida where he actually lives most of the time.

      If none of these issues are sticking, then the flap over the NRSC ad won’t either.

      It seems to me that WV voters are determined to send a message in this election. I’d like to see another poll of WV (hi CNN), but at this point it looks like the race is getting away from Manchin. I also don’t think there have been any internals from Manchin/DSCC recently rebutting the narrative that Raese’s lead is becoming durable.

    14. painting this as a microcosm of what’s really happening.  Big city corporations and political hacks trying to exert their influence over West Virginia through John Raese, counting on West Virginians to be “hicky” and dumb enough to fall for it.

      Or a positive ad about Manchin’s West Virginia roots and how proud he is of the state, by contrast to national Republicans, who think it’s full of ignorant hicks.

      This is front page at Politico right now.  Don’t know how big it will play in West Virginia.  

    15. is what leaves me the most pessimistic about this race.  The overall behavior of Manchin and the DSCC only solidifies the notion that the race is moving in the Republicans direction.

    16. Just as Arkansas will do in this election. This is particularly true for both at the national level. Rockefeller can probably hold his seat if he runs again, but the next time it is open it could easily go Republican.

      Democrats will take it on the chin in the South and Midwest but largely do okay in the Northeast and West.  The Midwest will come back later, but the South not so much.  

      Arkansas and WV will be very Deep South in it’s national politics going forward.  

      The DSCC should writeoff WV and concentrate on CO,KY,WA (maybe NH or MO) while leaving Reid and Feingold to hold NV and WI.  

    17. there’s no point in Democrats contesting the south.  They should start making a serious effort in Texas, a southwest state, because of the growing Latino and black population.

    18. four weeks before an election

      just because 3 polls by Scott R. and protoges show a trend away from Manchin. (Besides, I’m not convinced that Manchin is truly below 50%)

      While momentum is certainly important, there’s also some floor from Manchin support, from which he can recover.

      If the DSCC has some hold on Bill Clinton’s time, I’d have him do a tour of WV and KY over the next week.

    19. 1. West Virginia has a labor union heritage that Arkansas and Tennessee lack; Kentucky has a little more due to the coal mining, but not much more.  

      2. Though there are a lot of evangelicals around, there’s not as many SUV-driving suburbanites going to Prosperity Gospel megachurches in West Virginia as there are in the proper southern states. The country club crowd is essentially absent; the only country clubs I know of in the state are for tourists from DC.

      3. And unlike the Deep South, race-based dog whistle GOP appeals are less effective there because there are few non-whites around to demonize.

      4. It consists almost entirely of cheap media markets unless you count the very small chunk of the state in the outer periphery of the DC market. Northern WV is in the Pittsburgh market, but Pennsylvania is a swing state anyway so any decent Presidential campaign at least is already in Pittsburgh.  

    20. I would contend that Kentucky is still capable of electing a moderate to conservative Democrat to the US Senate under the right circumstances. You can still build fairly unique voter coalitions based around regionalism and special interests in Kentucky, which harks back to an older time in politics, where as many of the other Southern states have slid solidly into the R vs. D ideological model of electing officials (ex. see TN).

    21. and while it’ll take longer, D trends are positive in SC.

      I do believe that TX will be on its way to being the new CA (post prop 187) by ’16, if not sooner.

    22. is needed to make up for the South.  And more effort in Missouri and perhaps the northern Plains.

    23. This is a great recipe for a permanent minority.

      Georgia has a growing Latino population and quite a number of black voters, which grew considerably in 2008.

      Besides, a lot of these Southern states are strongly Democratic locally. When you’ve been the majority party for over 100 years and suddenly you’re out of power, it kind of takes time to rebuild.

    24. In better years, there can be opportunities in the South, but if that region is just ceded to the Republicans, there won’t be any of those opportunities in the future.

    25. and I suspect she would have won had she been the nominee.  She would have also won Arkansas.  Some polls even had her competitive in Tennessee and Kentucky.

    26. It was the national Republicans who insulted West Virginia with this, and that is a problem for Raese.  May not be a big one, but it is a problem.

    27. Is an outside group, and Raese can point to the fact that he can not legally coordinate with them to show that he is not involved with it in any way shape or form.  

    28. because of the R after his name, not because he’s anything spectacular.  People want to vote for a Republican for Senate, well look at what they think of you.

    29. Dino Rossi’s a perfectly competent campaigner, but he’s not a particularly exciting one. Still, he was probably the strongest recruit the GOP could land against an incumbent who’s weathered the anti-incumbent wave pretty strongly. I feel like I’ve said this ten times in the past week, but I just can’t RATIONALIZE why Murray would suddenly be behind. Rossi hasn’t done anything special, she hasn’t made a gaffe. Right now, I’d peg this at…

      Democrat – 37%

      Independent – 34%

      GOP – 29%

      Murray – 92/49/5 = 52%

      Rossi – 8/51/95 = 48%

      Honestly, I’ll be floored if the margin isn’t 52-48 or 53-47. Clearly, this is a race where the candidates are shoring up their party bases, splitting the Indies evenly, and it’s all about the Dem advantage that carries Murray to victory. In that sense, it’s just like California, though that state has a greater Dem population.

    30. …I ever ran across or could find that showed Hillary beating McCain in WV, and that was a modest 47-42 margin.  That was in March by SUSA in their 50-state horse race polling matching both Obama and Hillary vs. McCain.

      That one poll was a very thin reed on which the Hillary bots based a categorical insistence that Hillary would beat McCain there.

      And there were NEVER polls showing Hillary competitive in TN, that same SUSA poll showed her getting crushed there and in KY.  There were later KY polls during the heat of the primaries that showed her competitive vs. McCain in KY, but that was dubious.

      The reality is that some of these Appalachian and Southern states looked favorably on Hillary only during the hot fight vs. Obama because they hated Obama so much.  She realistically was never going to be competitive in those states once the nominee.  The only place she likely would have fared better than Obama was Arkansas, and even there no guarantee she would’ve carried it.

      There’s always a lot of spin and mythmaking about how strong Hillary was for November, and it was so much bullshit and still is.

    31. …that Murray has sunk like that.  None of the nonpartisan analysts have said anything about her dropping down again.

    32. How pollsters like Scott R can flood the zone and create a narrative that the “sky is falling for Ds”.

      and when they go so far, that a loss of “only” 30 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate is such a positive surprise that Ds get to continue legislating in the next Congress.

      At the moment, the MSM narrative is leaning towards some D recovery, so perhaps Scott R and protoges are trying to change the narrative back to the “sky is falling for Ds” again.

      While this is all “inside baseball” talk (anyone catch Roy Halliday yesterday?), it drives the narrative post-election.

    33. There really isn’t a pro-Angle vote, just an anti-Reid and I don’t think the polls are gauging exactly how that vote is going to break down. The None of These option will play a huge factor in this race.

    34. Exact numbers Scotty had in his last Nevada presidential poll before the ’08 election.  Obama ended up winning the state by 12.  Scotty was only 8 points off.

    35. When there was a discussion on an pro-Angle trend that Rasmussen would probably have exactly this. I don’t know what to believe really. I guess the only thing I would say is that polling did severly underestimate Democratic performance at the top of the ticket in both 2004 and 2008 but maybe that is clutching at straws.

    36. I asked if by “identical” results he meant identical to past polling that Reid is up a bit, or “identical” to latest public polling that Angle is up but it was a typo that he said “Reid.”  I suspect the former, especially since he hashtagged Rasmussen with “public polling sucks,” but I wasn’t 100% sure.

      I know, I know, he MEANT Reid, but I’m getting nervous as I always do as the election gets closer.

    37. Rossi is finally up on the air (at least here in Portland), so some tightening (even if temporary) is to be expected.

      WA state ballots should be in the mail by late next week.

    38. That they are clearly a partisan organization, I just read through their whole polling memo and nothing seems really out of sorts. They did include a bunch of negative staetments about Murray, but those were AFTER their initial poll, and then they polled again. Electorate makeup might be a little low on Dems but I’m not an expert on Washington politics so I can’t be sure.

      On the whole, doesn’t look awful. If you do the 5 point push for an internal/partisan poll then you have a tie race, which seems entirely plausible to me.  

    39. In this Razzy poll, so that may explain why Angle reached 50% here. And trust me, there are some Indies who don’t like anyone and who probably will vote for no one (literally).

    40. Especially when you’re both abrasive and wrong.  Calm down!

      Here’s that 50-state Survey USA poll.

      You’re right.  Hillary was getting CRUSHED in Tennessee by a margin of 46-46.  Oh wait, that’s a tie.  So I was right.

      There were later KY polls during the heat of the primaries that showed her competitive vs. McCain in KY, but that was dubious.

      Chalk that up as an admission of the accuracy of my statement that “some polls” had her “competitive” there.  No mythmaking there.  Just an accurate statement.

      As for West Virginia, I couldn’t immediately find actual polls this long after the fact, but here’s a chart indicating five West Virginia polls showing Hillary up an average of 10%, which is consistent with my memory.  The same chart showed McCain up an average of 4 in Tennessee polls, 6 in Kentucky polls, and Clinton up 26 in Arkansas polls.

      She realistically was never going to be competitive in those states once the nominee.  The only place she likely would have fared better than Obama was Arkansas, and even there no guarantee she would’ve carried it.

      You don’t know that, I don’t know that, and who cares?  I was just countering someone’s suggestion that we should give up on most of the South, and did so using completely correct statements about one particular well-known Democratic candidate who polled reasonably well in parts of the South just two years ago, at least for awhile.

      And no thanks to lumping me in with “Hillbots.”  I donated to, volunteered for, and contributed to Obama in the primary and general.

    41. by Obama supporters always has a ring of bad conscience to it.

      Gallup iirc polled both Hillary and Obama vs McCain on Election Day of 2008.  Both got 52-45.  I don’t think anyone thinks she would have gotten all the black turnout Obama did,  so she would have gotten additional votes somewhere else.

      You have to remember why the Kennedy establishment and the Midwestern and Southern Democratic establishments backed Obama: he was more moderate and integrated into their circles.  As nominee in the General probably enabled a good number of their conservative incumbents and candidates to thrive/survive another cycle.  But the bill for that is come due this election.

    42. But, then again, they don’t matter much in hindsight, given they were conducted long, long before the general election campaign began. What I do suspect is Hillary indeed would’ve won Arkansas and overperformed (though perhaps not actually won) in WV/KY/TN. On the flip side, I don’t think Hillary would’ve carried North Carolina, and I think Virginia would’ve been a virtual tie.

    43. I apologize for my tone.  I’m still a little touchy after all this time with all the Hillary crap on other blogs in 2007 and 2008.  That’s my fault.

      Regarding your link, the chart doesn’t claim to have 5 polls, only one.  I think you read the wrong column that showed number of electoral votes, which for WV is 5.  The column for polls said there’s one.

      But there’s no citation or other reference to the claimed poll.

      I don’t personally recall ANY general election polling by state in 2007, and I’m surprised if there was any except for maybe some swing states.  I remember everybody was polling states for primaries, and nationally for general trial heats.

    44. that the generic ballot is moving back in the R direction?

      Every recent poll I’ve seen, except one, has shown the opposite. Gallup, the one exception, moved from a tie to R+3 among registered voters. Their likely voter numbers were awful for Dems, but it was the first week they offered them, so there are no trend lines.

    45. And they underpolled in 2004 too. This is the first poll where you can truly say there is evidence of slippage. PPP is polling it at the weekend. Best to wait for confirmation.

    46. When the private polls show something completely contradictory to this? The whole “Ralston is in Reid’s pocket” meme is something Angle’s people have used for some time, mainly because he’s caught her at her worst moments.

      The reality I see here, and obviously the reality Ralston and other folks in the know see here, is very different from the “reality” you catch on cable news and the national blogs.

    47. is the depiction of a journalist who is looking for and reporting the truth as “biased”

      When one side is being more honest than another, good journalists report it.

      If that makes the other side look bad, well, them’s the breaks.

      Too many journalists have dissociated themselves in America because they’re afraid of being called “biased.” Instead, they report a falsehood and a truth as equal.

    48. I agree. We must wait to see if a trend is confirmed. But I’ve always been concerned by Angle’s ability to hang around ever after facing a massive amount of negative campaign ads.  

    49. Outperform the polls it will NV, CO (recent history confirms this and not just 2008) and I guess also IL and WV.

    50. I’m not that surprised that Angle is still polling well against Reid.  However, I don’t think that Reid is “starting to slip”, but instead “has slipped” a long time ago.  Truth be told, Reid was extended a massive life-line when Angle won the Republican nomination.  Reid’s not popular within Nevada, and I’m sure many folks do not want to see him re-elected.  However, Angle’s presence has helped mitigate Reid’s favorability problems.

      At the time of voting, many Nevadans will have to make up their mind on whether to punish Reid and vote for a nutcase or reluctantly vote for Reid instead of sending him a message.  

      Reid will most probably win.  Too close for comfort, but a win anyway.

    51. I’ve been a long time observer of this website like I suspect most people are. The fact that I took the time to sign up today shouldn’t be batted done because you disagree with my comment.  

    52. It seems like everyone who makes a first comment lately is automatically labeled a troll. I’ve seen it in a few other threads lately.

      Some of these supposed trolls might actually end up being valuable contributors.

    53. Whatever happen to Welcome…Glad for you to join. Is it in the interest of this website to keep this forum small and exclusive with the same handles posting day after day?

      Like I said I’ve been an observe of this website for several months like most who few it and decided to join today. Why is this a bad thing? My comments weren’t controversial or false…  

    54. She wasn’t the nominee, she wasn’t running ads and people weren’t running attack ads against her, and she wasn’t campaigning for herself.

      Clinton’s fundraising was ultimately worse than Obama’s, her favorables were never as high as Obama’s were when she was actively campaigning (that’s true among Democrats and the general electorate) and she had some serious problems with questions of being “honest and trustworthy” that Obama never had. There’s a lot of history rewritten during the primaries, and I think the biggest one is regarding Hillary Clinton (by both then-Clinton supporters and Obama supporters).

    55. Can we please leave the events of 2008 in 2008?

      This blog was always a haven from the primary insanity — let’s keep it that way.

    56. …to say what you did.  I’ve seen first comments like that often from Republican trolls, on this site and others.

    57. and that’s confirmed by the responses. If in fact you’ve been a real observer here, you would have known that the following comments would have raised the ire of many here:


      I think its time to face reality.

      Implying that most users here are not realists.


      Reid is clearly slipping in Nevada

      If you’ve been a follower of this site, you’ll know this is not the conventional wisdom here.


      spin isn’t gonna change that fact.

      One thing most users take pride in here is how they keep the spin to a minimum.

    58. Welcome!  As an occassional blogger, I’ve learned to wear my “thick skin” when I post.

      I know that I’m personally skeptical of first time bloggers.  We’ve had several “concerned trolls” that will make an outlandish allegation for the sole intent to upset the apple cart.  Speaking solely for myself, I’m able to remove the skepticism once the new blogger makes numerous posts.  I actually understood your thoughts about Angle/Reid and, as a result, didn’t read into any ulterior motives.  Face it, any incumbent should be easily polling ahead of a fringe candidate like Angle.  When polls become stagnant, it makes me wonder.  However, I still believe Reid will pull this one out before too long.

    59. Popular with Republicans were he to flip a 50-50 Senate which I think might be a distinct possibility now. I can see his whining, sanctimonious face announcing in my head.

    60. Another Indie run or retirement. He can’t possibly survive a primary in either party. My hunch is, unless he can get some traction going on DADT or cap-and-trade in the Senate (which would bolster his standing among the same Dems and moderates who backed him in ’06), he’ll pull a Dodd and retire.

    61. I literally just teared up a little.  I hate Lieberman more than any Republican, period.  He needs to go!

    62. Webb might do best with George Allan has his opponent which is just a hunch since I don’t think we have seen any data about any possible match ups.  

    63. Not sure if Cuccinelli will run, but he seems like the type of insurgent, ultra-conservative (not that Allen is moderate) candidate that would run against an establishment type. Cuccinelli has built a bit of credit with hardcore conservatives.

    64. As a VA resident call me not surprised at all. No inside info but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Webb retired as he is quickly becoming frustrated at the GOP’s filibustering actions as he is not used to the slow pace of legislation and isn’t what one would call a true “politician”. One of his pet projects in reforming the criminal justice system is being held up by Jim DeMint. I think that Webb would like nothing better than to strangle DeMint with his bare hands. Webb ran because of Iraq but he also ran based on ensuring economic fairness and I think that this can keep him running. He is nowhere near the campaigner that Mark Warner is and is going to rely a lot on Obama’s turnout. I still get requests for money so he is passively asking for money if that helps.

      Allen is basically saying that he is running as a message to Cantor who won’t run against him. I think that Bolling and Cuccinelli are going to run for Governor in 2013 and I don’t see either challenging Webb in 2012. I really hope that Webb runs again in 2012 as I really like him and the focus that he brings to issues. It was a lot of work to elect him in 2006 but it was worth it. Without him you are looking at probably Representative Gerry Connolly or Former Governor Tim Kaine to run.  

    65. No states have higher black percentage of the electorate than Mississipi and South Carolina.  And yet the Dems have no shot, zero, in statewide federal races there.  Wny?  Because of the permanent confederate ideology among the overwhelming majority of white voters.  Minority voters aren’t the saviors in these states.

    66. I also wondered if Webb might retire, but I haven’t seen any concrete evidence.  Do you have anything specifically that would indicate that Webb might retire?

    67. I think there have been signs he’s running, and running smartly. Penned an editorial about affirmative action a few months (WSJ?), which I took as a campaign move to shore up white support. Held out quite late as to whether he would allow the defense authorization bill (with DADT repeal) to come up for debate – again, with an eye to military and conservative white Dems and indies.

      With Obama at the top of the ticket, the AA vote in VA will be huge. To win, Webb would just need to keep the white vote from being a blowout.

      For what it’s worth, I think MO is a similar story. Obama will bring out AA voters in big numbers in the cities, lowering the hurdle for McCaskill among whites.

    68. I think if Republicans do not win the House and Allen didn’t run, Cantor would. Cantor would probably be the strongest candidate we could get. LG Bill Bolling would also be a strong candidate, and, if he ran, we would avoid a tough 2013 Gov primary between him and Cuccinelli. I think the field will be cleared for Allen though.

    69. One way to tell if he’s considering retiring is if he is raising money at a slow rate or not at all.  

    70. From that, I think, would be the fact that he is still very popular with the same people that propelled Angle, Paul, Miller, and O’Donnell to victory. They like him because they feel in 2006, Jim Webb took his comments out of context and Allen deserved to win. Sorta like the “We was robbed” mentality. I wonder if Cuccinelli is interested in becoming a Senator, or would he rather run for gov in 2013? He did say he wanted to serve as AG for a few terms though.  

    71. He’d have a much easier time steamrolling over Bolling in a primary than Allen. His ultimate goal is to run for President; he’s already been laying the groundwork for it, by campaigning for Attorneys General running for office in other states this year (most notably in Iowa).

    72. I wonder if he would retire since Iraq isn’t the pressing issue now as it was in 2006.  

    73. he’d have a big uphill climb:

      In a direct two-way match, Murphy leads Lieberman by 47%-33%.

      And that probably understates support for the Democrat, as Murphy isn’t all that well-known (yet) outside his district. He’s a young guy, coming up on the end of his second term in Congress from one of five districts.

      If Lieberman were to switch, Republicans might warm to him, but he’ll never truly persuade cultural conservatives (Joe is very pro-choice), and he will have voted for the stimulus and health care reform, and led the fight on cap-and-trade. Those issues will surely fade over the next couple years, but there will be at least residual resentment, giving the Dem some significant wedge opportunities.

      Personally, I don’t think he’s going to flip. He’s been playing too nice with Dems over the past few months and has staked out some strong positions on Democratic issues (cap-and-trade, ending DADT).

    74. Can read the same information and get totally different takes from it. All those races you sight as worrying have been competitive for a long time. I’m surprised you think it is alarming that the DCCC are going up with ads in those places when the NRCC have already done so.

    75. IL-14 has always been a very competitive, top 40, if not 30, race.  As has SC-5.  But I’m wondering if they’ve thrown in the towel on WI-8.

    76. is clearly prudent. I would not jump to any conclusions about the ultimate outcomes of these races, except to say that the DCCC clearly would like to help them be Democratic wins.

    77. Mrs. Ayotte is a funny candidate. Uninteresting and dull but not all that offensive or controversial then the guy she beat in the primary. Thus I think she’s pretty much a good bet on winning. Hodes picked a bad year to run statewide. I wished he would have stayed in his district and run again.  

    78. A new poll indicates that the Democrats may have a shot at grabbing back a GOP held Senate seat in New Hampshire.

      According to an American Research Group survey released Thursday, 47 percent of likely voters in New Hampshire support former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte, the Republican nominee, with 42 percent backing two-term Rep. Paul Hodes, the Democratic nominee, four percent backing other candidates and seven percent undecided.

      Ayotte held a 14 point advantage over Hodes in an ARG survey from late last month. Hodes gained 19 percentage points among women in the latest survey while Ayotte gained 8 percentage points among men.


    79. NRCC hasn’t went up on TX-23, as far as I know.  That’s a must hold district for a dem majority.  CO-03 is also a new buy area even though it’s definitely been in the NRCC crosshairs they haven’t bought there yet.

    80. The adult black population in most states is fairly static and already votes at rates comparable to whites if I’m not mistaken. I wouldn’t expect any particular change in heavily black states.

      In contrast, the adult Latino population is growing much faster than other groups and votes at very low rates. As this group starts to vote at higher rates, heavily Latino states will trend Dem unless the Republicans make some big changes.  

    81. Black turn-out is much lower than white turn out. If we can boost black turn out, our candidates can win, provided they run to the center or center-right. Latino turn out in states like Georgia will gradually rise too, though admittedly I don’t know about latinos in MS and SC.

      Besides, you’re saying we should abandon the South solely because of the Senate seats (the only “statewide federal races” in each state)? Think about that for a moment.

    82. The only poll to come out of there was a Republican one that showed a big Ribble lead.  And this traditionally has been a Republican seat.

    83. Normally black voters show up at Census-minus-1/2, about 10-11% nationally when the AA population is about 12%.  It’s not a BIG underparticipation, but it’s real and consistent.


      But 2008 was the opposite, black voters were Census+1 nationally and in probably all the states.

      I hope and wish that somehow the new black voters will stay in the game WITHOUT Obama to vote for, not just this November but for the long haul.  I don’t know if it will happen, but I hope somehow the self-motivation is there or otherwise there is a means to make it happen.

      Hispanic voter participation is going to be WAAAAY below census for a long time because so many Hispanics are non-citizens.  If my back-of-the-envelope math is correct, just the undocumented population is about 4% of the total American population (12 million out of 300 million) and roughly 25% of the Hispanic American population.  My math is based on the understanding that census estimates (the regular annual estimates, although I’m not sure about the actual decennial census) count undocumenteds in the population figures.  Then out of the remaining Hispanic population, some percentage are legal non-citizen immigrants.  I think something in the ballpark of 10-11% of the U.S. population is made up of Hispanics eligible to vote.  The 2008 election had the Hispanic vote share at 8%, so that’s 2-3 points below census, slighly worse than black vote share.

      The eligible Hispanic voting population will accelerate in growth partly because American-born children of undocumenteds are U.S. citizens by birthright.  That, of course, is one unspoken reason for the complaints about birthright citizenship from the teabaggers, since they’d rather disenfranchise these people than work for their votes.  They don’t talk about it directly, but it’s there in the background in combination with unmerited complaints about “voting fraud” and the like.

    84. for Hodes though. Closer than most. Could signal some movement.

      At the very least, a closing of the gap here could be good news for Kuster, as it will heighten interest in the election and perhaps draw a few more Dems to the polls.

    85. There are no surprises, save perhaps for GA-2 and VA-11.  Which have been mentioned but only fairly recently.

    86. that “POS” isn’t just an acronym for Public Opinion Strategies…

      But more to the point: Doheny’s lead is almost definitely overstated here, but I would peg this at Leans R. Owens’ election was pretty clearly a fluke. Hoffman’s name on the ballot might cost Doheny 3 or 4% at most, which won’t be enough to throw it to Rep. Owens.

    87. and I’ll apologize for my snarky retort.  All us horserace-obsessed Dems are probably a little on edge right now.

    88. I’d say: “Specter.” 😉

      And for a D to R switcher, it would probably be worse, as the Rs have been brutal this cycle with RINOs.

      I think his best shot would be to stay indie: Three-ways are much more volatile, and he could probably play his triangulation game quite effectively: Stay hawkish; become a fierce environment leader; be consistently pro-choice and pro-gay; and try to keep the Chamber in his pocket.

    89. Was to run as an Independent, but adopt the most right-wing position he possibly could on everything. Then I’d constantly tell him to ignore any and all polls except the ones I conducted/made up 😀

    90. I’ve considered for some weeks now that this race is effectively over – really, it was when Meek Beat Greene in the primary.  Neither Crist nor Meek is going to drop out and even if one did, I’m not at all convinced that Rubio wouldn’t win anyway.  At this stage, he’s just looking to run up the score and get as close to 50% as possible.  If he helps Rick Scott and Alan West across the finish line, that would be an extra bonus for him.

    91. If you look at the numbers, though, it’s just a result of Hodes getting more support, Ayotte’s numbers didn’t drop.  The first ARG poll just underestimated Hodes Dem support, it seems to me.

    92. Its the the epitome of moderate. I think Owens has portrayed himself very well as a genuine moderate in this district, and it will go a long way. I lived in this district for 10 years, and I’d say it has more culturally in common with Vermont (especially in the eastern portion of NY-23) while the western and southern areas are more socially moderate and fiscally moderate/conservative.

      What to look for on election day:

      What is Cuomo’s margin in this district?

      Does freshman NY-49 State Senator Darrel Aubertine hold up? If he wins, Owens will probably win.

      St Lawrence county is more or less the most moderate county in the district (also the most populous I believe, since it is so massive.) If Owens wins St Lawrence by a couple of points, he will most likely win. This is also true for Aubertine, since a lot of his district is comprised of St Lawrence county (although he will need a higher margin here than Ownes will need). Aubertine and Owens must also perform strong in Watertown, and hold down the margins is fairly the conservative town of Oswego.

    93. Beginning with PPP’s survey from 9/10-9/13, going through Politico’s survey from 9/19-9/22, the democrats led in 5 of the 12 polls taken.  Of the 7 polls that showed Republicans ahead, only two showed a lead of higher than 3 points, Rassmussen’s 9/13-9/19 survey, and Zogby’s 9/10-9/14 survey.  Around this time, the generic ballot average for the republicans dropped to it’s smallest level since July, only a 1.8% lead.  

      Since Politico’s survey, 12 more polls have been taken.  In these surveys, the republicans led in 9 out of 12, and had at least a 5 point lead in EVERY ONE OF THEM, with the exception of Rassmussen’s 9/27-10/3 survey.  2 other races were tied, and one, Newsweek’s 9/29-9/30 survey, had the democrats ahead.  Today, the generic ballot is republicans 46.1%, democrats 42.6%, a 3.5% margin, the biggest they’ve had since early September.

      That to me, suggests a lot of movement toward the republicans over the last 10 days.  That movement is corroborated by the fact that many of the Senate races have fallen for Team Blue in the past week, including WV, WI, MO, NH, and maybe even WA and NV now too.

    94. has become a huge cheerleader for Reid.  I’m starting to wonder about his objectivity on this race.

      With respect to these private polls, I wonder where Reid is polling.  If he has a slight lead and is at 42% its a lot worse than if he has a slight lead and is polling at 46%.  

      Ralston is really putting himself on the line in this race.  I guess we will see if he’s right in November

    95. It’s an astroturf Republican firm.  It would be nice if the media took note of that when reporting the results.  But astrotruf outfits count on the media to be typically lazy.

    96. that most pollsters have now moved from registered to likely voter models. This probably explains why you’re seeing “worse” numbers for Dems. Also, at the aggregator sites, I noticed a widening when they entered the new Gallup likely numbers, which had Dems down big.

      But there has been NO indication in individual polls (save perhaps Gallup) that Dems are weakening. Razzy, WaPo, Newsweek, Democracy Corps, NBC/WSJ — ALL of them show movement toward Dems in their latest polls.

    97. Ralston clearly doesn’t like Angle.  Understandable as I don’t much like her either, but I’m also not a reporter.  He is not coming across all that well in his reporting on this race from where I stand.  I prefer that if you present yourself as an unbiassedly analyst, that you conduct yourself that way.  It’s hard sometimes to hide your opinion, I know, but he’s doing a lousy job of it.

    98. I’m only really concerned with LV polls now and in each of those you mentioned the latest poll has a margin smaller than the previous. Though I fully expect Rasmussen to show a wider margion next week while Gallup shrinks.

    99. So let’s ignore every other poll out there (they all have shown Bright with a nice lead) and accept the Roby internal that shows her ahead two?

    100. given Angle’s recorded remarks that she doesn’t think she can win with Ashjian still an active candidate.

    101. She says something stupid at the debate next week and that becomes clear in public polling too.

    102. St. Louis is dying, not sure about KC but wouldn’t be surprised if they were losing population as well.  And the ultimate bellwether state didn’t even vote for Obama when he dominated the EC and did well in the popuar.  We’ll always be competitive statewide with local Dems on the ballot but if I ran President I probably wouldn’t care to spend much in MO when there are other states becoming more favorable instead of less.

    103. Any every other member of the Senate, except for maybe Bob Menendez and Harry Reid

      I think that Webb would like nothing better than to strangle DeMint with his bare hands

    104. That are already the most conservative states in union with there being little to no likelihood of that changing in favor of states moving rapidly in our direction sounds exactly like what should happen long-term.  Going after states that are much more tolerant to liberalism sounds like a much better fit for the Democratic Party long-term to me.

    105. If anyone did it, I can picture him being the one. If you remember he told President Bush in response to how his son was doing in Iraq that was “between me and my boy”. He later buried the hatchet and met Bush with his son in the Oval Office but that’s just Webb’s personality. Moot discussion as I don’t see any Senators getting strangled anytime soon though.

    106. I wouldn’t be surprised if Razzy shows something like R+3 at the very end, but I think they’ll show wider Republican before that. Just a hunch.

    107. then the DSCC would be running ads, Hodes would (probably) be releasing a favorable internal, we’d be seeing more high-profile surrogates heading to NH to campaign for Hodes… not to mention we’d see more activity on Ayotte’s side to counter.

      None of these things are happening. As far as I know, the DSCC has run as many ads for Hodes as they have for Lee Fisher — zero. Plus, neither Ayotte nor Hodes are the kind of candidates who are going to do anything that would substantially change the fundamentals of this race.

      Besides, ARG does not have a good track record. This movement is not a trend, it’s just ARG doing a less awful job at polling then their last attempt.

    108. the fact that Hodes isn’t in the sights of the national Republican groups (for the most part, anyway) could give him some breathing room to get his message out. NH is a state where retail politicking can go a long way.

    109. Unless they’ve changed how they nominate, the Republicans nominate by convention rather than by primary. It’s become a strictly “wingnuts only” affair for statewide offices.  

      Cantor can taste Majority Leader and has a pretty safe seat. That’s a lot to give up for a 50/50 (if that) shot at being the low man on the totem pole in the Senate. (Though none of this stopped Roy Blunt for some reason.)

      For the reason you cited George Allen is probably going to have the nomination if he wants it, which may not be the wisest course of action in terms of getting the seat back.  

    110. They pick on a race by race basis. The party usually does what will be easier for their favored candidate. For example, in VA-05, they opted for a primary because they knew Hurt could not get through a convention. In VA-09, they did a convention since Griffith would win easily and get the nomination early to start the general election.  

    111. Cantor is likely to be speaker someday because of his youth and the safeness of his seat–unless we get into a situation where one party holds the House forever, we’re likely to see Boehner cycle in and out and then Cantor will be the guy next time the Republicans take it back.

      Blunt left because he was a falling star and the GOP House leadership wanted to move in a new direction. He was never going to improve on his standing in the House, and he’s young enough that he has a chance to start anew in the Senate.

    112. John Sununu is also thinking about a rubber match with Jeanne Shaheen in 2014. If Obama’s in his second term then, he’ll have a shot since that is historically a good time for the opposition party. And even then, he’ll only be 50 (Shaheen will be 67.)

    113. He is much worse than Allen and Talent. I agree though, we would be much better off with different candidates in both races.  

    114. In MO, we’d be better off with someone other than Sarah Steelman or Jim Talent or Matt Blunt.  

    115. And how often does he brag about his wealth?  And yes, I will call it bragging; what kind of politician (or attempting to be a politician rather) even talks about rich they are?  It’s just an asshole thing to even bring up.  Unless you’re Herb Kohl who manages to turn it into, I’m so rich I dont need to get bought off by lobbyists or special interests.

    116. From all that. The comment that surely would hurt more was the whole thing about it not being his job to do anything about employment.

    117. Didn’t he leave office pretty unpopular? The way its going, Gerry Connoley, Glenn Nye, and Tom Periello will be available.  

    118. State Sens. Chap Petersen and Mark Herring (both from NoVa) are considered likely candidates for statewide office in 2013, maybe Gov, maybe LG or AG.

      Gerry Connolly would not be a complete surprise. I imagine if he survives 2010 (I’d put money on him over Fimian), he’ll get a much safer district, so he won’t have to spend all his time fighting for re-election.

    119. No, wasn’t aware of that.  It is closer than I would have expected.  But that Sestak is only ahead by 3 in his own district is not encouraging.

    120. Have the DCCC done much there? Also it seems they used SurveyUSA for the data collection according to this.

      Considering their odd numbers so far this cycle in numerous races it may these Monmouth polls are encouraging news.

    121. Close, but no cigar.  In the actual election I think 50% proves too tall a hurdle for Strickland to jump.  He’ll lose something like 52-47.

      I hope I’m wrong, but Strickland is clearly upside down in his job approvals in ALL polling, and Kasich ultimately is an establishment Republican who can’t be villified to the same depths as the teabaggers like Angle and others.

      But there IS something positive that can come from a narrow Strickland loss, in that being highly competitive right into election day might just save Dem control of the Ohio House and maybe one or two Congressional seats.

    122. Rossi had not been attacking her back and not running many positive ads. He has started attacking since the polls showing a Murray bounce.  

    123. Oh the joys of first being elected in 2006.  Just late enough to have nothing to do with the economy but perfectly in time to get blamed for it all.  ::sigh::  If anything, that’s my silver lining.  20 years from now political scientists will be discussing how Obama and the Democrats got absolutely fucked by the lasting legacy of Bush and rag-tag crew of fuck ups.

    124. Any local politician will whoop his carpetbagging behind. (For what it’s worth, I actually supported McAuliffe, but that’s because I’m an obsessed Clintonian.)

    125. that doesnt say the honest objective truth.  “Reid is winning this”, “Even GOP insiders say the numbers are wrong”.  He’s tough on Angle and that’s because she, unlike Harry Reid, is a complete fucking moron and has no business being anywhere close to a US Senate seat.  Maybe shouldnt she do and say so many things that would cause negative press.  If anything, journalists not going hard on Angle are the ones who are being biased, look at that fucking hot crazy mess!  Everything she does is a negative presser in the making.  She can barely get out, Harry Reid…Majority Leader….. Economy Collapse, without adding in, no business helping City Center and it’s not my job as Senator to create jobs.

      Here’s a great lesson, negative press and positive press do not mean biased press.  

    126. If you want a much more liberal Democratic Party that loses it’s big tent and gives up a good chunk of the country, that’s great.

      There are those of us out there who’d prefer results over purity.

      You’re advocating abandoning the South entirely “long term”. Why should we abandon any group of states? Other than wanting a permanent minority full of purists, I see no reason for it. The Green Party seems to exist for that type of view :)

    127. When it comes to Congress, it would be very hard for Democrats to ever hold a majority without competing in the South. A winning strategy includes being multi-regional.  

    128. We were better off without him, Talent, or Steelman. I knew if I just said Talent and Steelman someone would say we would be even worse off with Blunt, so I added him too.  

    129. That district is D+5. Shays held it for a long time, but he was moderate and personally popular and the conventional wisdom was that he would be the last Republican to hold it for the foreseeable future.

    130. I meant from this particular pollster – Merriman River, who apparently skews Republican.

      Yesterday, they showed Chris Murphy down 5 (Murphy’s +14, according to internals), and this morning had Larson leading by just 7. Larson won by somewhere in the vicinity of 45 points in ’08. This is my district. There’s no way it’s a single-digit spread.

      So for Himes to be +2 from this particular pollster says a lot. In fact, Himes could now be a lock.

    131. They pick and choose, which begs the question, who has the authority to pick and choose?  The GOP makes the most sense but how on earth could the SoS not be biased in allowing either party to pick and choose like that?

    132. Only one Congresscritter has died in the name of duty.  Leo Ryan, a Congressman from the Bay Area, went to investigate religious cult crazies in Guyana and was killed in the Jonestown massacre.  Current Congresswoman, Jackie Speier, was an aide to him and was shot five times in the massacre.  She now represents his old seat some thirty years later.

    133. But what should be taken from these numbers is that even if Greene were the nominee, Crist would be toast.  One poll had Meek at 16% and Rubio was still in the drivers seat and a 16% Meek margin once meant a sure Crist win.  Crist went overboard in attracting himself to Democrats and now has lost crucial ground to Rubio.

      This race is 100% over and that’s my final prediction on FL-Sen.

    134. Bright by 9 in Democratic internal

      Roby by 2 in the Republican internal

      What does that tell you?

      Why would we expect Roby to not release the informed ballot testing? Why are we saying that Bright by 9 is wrong? The race is probably about Bright +4-6 right now.

      I’m headed back to Alabama next week. We will see what I find.

    135. Shaheen had this race on lock from day one and the lead slowly went from high teens, to low teens, to high single digits.

    136. He’s earned a lot of respect during his term in Congress and even if he loses this year, he’ll still have demonstrated ability to win the rural vote. He could rebuild the traditional Democratic coalition in Virginia–the kind Mark Warner won in 2001 with.

    137. thinking they’ll lose doesnt mean you categorize it as more Republican leaning than toss-up.  To be precise and put my non-existant lawyering skills to use.

    138. and I certainly would have preferred to have seen that a politics watcher.  Not as Democrat obviously, but has someone from the Constitution Party ever won?

    139. Your fly-off-the-handle accusations of trolling, and your general tone which several others have rightly objected to, you’re getting a one-week time-out.

    140. as long as other people do.

      I think there’s still unfinished business there that will come up in the next couple of election cycles.  You can think of it as asshole nonwhite and male liberals vs asshole white and female liberals- that’s more or less what it was and still is- but in this sort of game inside Parties each side has to get their way and their particular needs/desires met eventually.

    141. If so, is there a place where guidelines are posted? I’m relatively new here.

      Bummed that Cyclone might be on hiatus. His posts are among the most insightful on the site, and he seems to have backed down and apologized for the offenses you cite.

    142. chance he runs for Governor in 2012? I seem to remember hearing he wants to be Governor, he thought of running this year anyway. I would obviously prefer him as Governor than as Senator.  

    143. Is not a good thing. One thing I won’t tolerate here are people who regularly let their tempers get the better of them, and then assume they can just “patch things up” and move on with an apology. Obviously, we all have occasional moments we aren’t proud of. But when they start happening too often, people need to step back and re-assess.

      We haven’t really had a need to post guidelines before – just watching for a while seems to acquaint most people with our community norms quite well. If you have any questions, feel free to shoot me an email.

    144. He looks good to survive this year, which means he can survive pretty much anything. But you’re right, I would not rule out a Sununu run for governor as soon as Lynch retired. The guy is still in his 40’s, and there was no shame in losing to an opponent as strong as Shaheen in a year like ’08. He still has a political career ahead of him if he chooses to re-enter the battlefield.

    145. If he wins this year, do you think he will retire next year? Right before the filing deadline, there were rumors he would retire this year. If he does retire, do you think Sununu runs? Also, if Stephen puts up a good showing this year and decides to run again, what would the primary be like between the two? Who would have a better shot?  

    146. do not get why he did not run for Senate this year. Assuming of course he won the nomination he would be a shoo in. If he really wants a comeback an open seat would be a lot better than facing a popular incumbent. Honestly that is why I think he might be interested in the Governorship, he had a an excellent opportunity and he passed on it. His age does worry me, he has time to recover. Still we do not know what the political climate is going to be like come 2014, in a neutral year I think Shaheen would probably win do to incumbency. He could, assuming Lynch calls it quit, run for Gov in 2012 and serve until 2020 and run in an open seat assuming Shaheen retires.  

    147. I’ll be honest. Even though he is a true blue liberal, people respect that and the man can raise money. He would be a very tough candidate in the future. I wonder if he would primary Webb if Webb ran again and he lost?  

    148. I could see him retiring in say, 2014. He’s been in the House forever and will probably have finally gotten to his goal of becoming Speaker and will feel like his career is complete. I could see Cantor getting challenged though by Bachmann (she wouldn’t get far) or McMorris Rodgers. He’s lucky Pence will probably be out by then, because Pence would be a real threat to Cantor.  

    149. I think he would win, although with GOP primaries these days you never can tell. As for Lynch, if he wins this year and serves out his term that would be 8 years as governor, which as all that most governors other than Rick Perry usually care to serve. I don’t think he’ll go for a 5th term, but then again, he’s popular and seems to enjoy the job so who knows?

      As I’ve said, Sununu is young and still has his whole career ahead of him if he chooses to return to politics. I think it comes down to whether he’d rather be Governor or Senator; once he makes up his mind, he’ll wait for the right cycle to make his comeback.  

    150. is not going to be around Congress come January 2013 do to redistricting. Assuming Dayton wins this year of course. That is one of the reasons I am not that concerned if she wins this year.  

    151. I was personally hoping that he would get into the race this year, and I noticed many people in NH put their Sununu signs back in their yards as soon as Gregg announced he wouldn’t run again, assuming he would get back in. But the environment was not as good for the GOP in 2009 as it is now and he was still licking his wounds from ’08. By the time things had improved enough that he looked like a good bet to beat Hodes, Ayotte and others were already in. He probably could have won the primary, but it would have been a mess.

    152. He was considering it, he trailed Hodes while Ayotte led Hodes. His dad is the party chairman, so he probably wanted the stronger candidate, Ayotte.  

    153. A lot of Tea Party candidates upset establishment picks this year, and if she went up against Kline, who’s equally conservative, she’d have all the grassroots with her. This only happens, of course, if her home is drawn into Kline’s district–if she carpetbags, I doubt she gets the Tea Party support because Kline’s in lockstep with her on the issues. But if they’re in the same district, she can argue that neither one of them has a claim on the seat, and game on.

      Ideally for the GOP, Kline would run for Senate against Klobuchar (he’d be 65, but that’s not horrible), and crazy Michele would hold down the super-red district until a sensible conservative comes along and stuns her in a primary! But dream on, Team Red…..

    154. I don’t think I would favor that from an electoral standpoint.  I’d rather him take a swing at Gov and beat the tar out of McAuliffe in that primary, if he has any interest in an executive role.  Or, of course, Senate is ideal if Webb retires.

    155. I suspect most of Meek’s supporters would’ve bolted for Crist, and Greene would be struggling to reach even 20%. You’d probably see the likes of Bill Clinton just remain neutral here. Think…

      GOP – 38%

      Democrat – 36%

      Independent – 26%

      Rubio – 84/8/40 = 45%

      Greene – 2/34/12 = 16%

      Crist – 14/58/48 = 39%

      Which is a little tighter than what we see w/ Meek in the mix.

    156. He’d probably have a better chance of winning a senate election with Klobuchar than beating Bachmann in a Republican primary. as many people here have said, he is a strong statewide candidate because he appears moderate, but he is getting up in age, and 2012 may be his last chance to run for higher office. He’d be 67 in 2014, to take on Franken, who is a much more appealing target.  

    157. I don’t necessarily think she would be a lock in a primary though. I don’t see Kline running for Senate unless he knows that he has ZERO chance in a Republican primary. Because no one is going to beat Klobocher (SP?), especially with Obama on top of the ticket, although she will do better than Obama. Maybe coattails will drift down enough to beat Bachmann if she beat Kline. Or maybe she decides to run for Senate instead, hey I can dream can’t I?

    158. I’d like to see it too, even if 2014 is a Republican year.  I think the benefits outweigh the risks.

    159. We are talking about this in the context of focusing on other areas to build the Democratic Party instead.  If winning Texas and AZ means never winning the South, whatever, that’s 273 (or whatever the EC minimum win is).  This isn’t about the ideal Democratic Party, this is about winning, and putting work into the states in this country the furthest away from the Democratic Party’s ideology is just stupid.  We won’t always have Obama-bucks to make it where we can run an ad campaign in every state that could be conceivably competitive and if we’re going to have to pick and choose, I’d sure hope we picked the states where we don’t have to run a peanut farmer every 4 years to consistently win them.  A former community organizer may want to run some day, too.

    160. 1) The 50 state strategy is still an excellent idea. If we chose to abandon states where there is less hope, we’d have abandoned Scott McAdams and Jack Conway as well. (The original suggestion was also to abandon Joe Manchin.) If Bobby Bright, Travis Childers, or Bart Gordon were to run for the Senate, they should be given every support to do so.

      2) There are areas of significant Democratic strength in the South — even among whites. Without it, we would not have done so well along the east coast South (VA, NC, GA, FL). We are a national party, fully competitive at all levels in these states.

      2a) I believe the trends are also our friend in SC.

      3) There are areas in the South where life is more difficult now. While the 50 state strategy still applies, I believe there is a more productive focus — Hispanic voters. Not only will their numbers grow with immigration, but they’ll also grow as Hispanics come of voting age (faster than the population in general).

      3a) I believe that a focus on Hispanics can be compatible with an appeal to poor whites, even those in the South. Both groups are highly religious, less well educated, and are concerned about many of the same issues.

      3b) I believe a focus on Hispanics can turn Texas nearly as blue as CA by ’16. That would be the big prize, not only in Presidential politics, but also in the ’20 redistricting cycle.

    161. “I’d sure hope we picked the states where we don’t have to run a peanut farmer every 4 years to consistently win them.  A former community organizer may want to run some day, too.”

      This is the type of elitist, arrogant attitude that makes us in the South dislike the party.

      If we go your route we’ll be sitting in a permanent minority.

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