2010 Census Reapportionment Numbers

The Census Bureau has released its 2010 reapportionment numbers. All of today’s data dump can be seen here; the most important items of data are here, in the form of the map showing today’s winners and losers.

If this graph looks familiar, I’m using the last few rounds of Election Data Services projections as a yardstick for the actual results. (Kudos to them — or to the Census Bureau’s annual estimates, really. They basically nailed it.)

State Actual 2010 2009 2008 2007
Arizona 1 1 1 / 2 2 2
California 0 0 -1 / 0 -1 / 0 0 / 1
Florida 2 2 1 1 / 2 1 / 2
Georgia 1 1 1 1 1
Illinois -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Iowa -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Louisiana -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Massachusetts -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Michigan -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Minnesota 0 0 -1 -1 -1 / 0
Missouri -1 -1 0 -1 -1
Nevada 1 1 1 1 1
New Jersey -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
New York -2 -2 -1 -1 -2
North Carolina 0 0 0 0 / 1 0 / 1
Ohio -2 -2 -2 -2 -2
Oregon 0 0 0 0 / 1 1
Pennsylvania -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
South Carolina 1 1 1 1 0 / 1
Texas 4 4 3 / 4 4 4
Utah 1 1 1 1 1
Washington 1 1 1 0 0

A few various other tidbits shared at today’s news conference: the fastest growth rates, among states, were Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, and Texas. Slowest growth were Michigan (the only one to decline since 2000), Rhode Island, Louisiana, Ohio, and New York. With a national population of 308,745,538, the average House district will have 710K constituents (up from 646K in 2000).

Gentlemen, start your redistricting engines!

UPDATE: Courtesy of Jeffmd, we’ve got the last 15 and first 15 (in other words, which states were most on the bubble, in order). Minnesota was the narrowest escapee, holding its 8th seat at North Carolina’s expense by less than 15,000 people.

# Last 15 # Next 15
435th Minnesota 8th 436th North Carolina 14th
434th California 53rd 437th Missouri 9th
433rd Texas 36th 438th New York 28th
432nd Washington 10th 439th New Jersey 13th
431st Florida 27th 440th Montana 2nd
430th South Carolina 7th 441st Louisiana 7th
429th Georgia 14th 442nd Oregon 6th
428th California 52nd 443rd Ohio 17th
427th Pennsylvania 18th 444th Virginia 12th
426th Texas 35th 445th California 54th
425th New York 27th 446th Illinois 19th
424th Michigan 14th 447th Texas 37th
423rd Illinois 18th 448th Massachusetts 10th
422nd California 51st 449th Pennsylvania 19th
421st Alabama 7th 450th Florida 28th

266 thoughts on “2010 Census Reapportionment Numbers”

  1. Utah sued to try to get it, claiming Mormon missionaries abroad were unfairly excluded.  It will be interesting to see if NC does anything now that the tables are turned.

  2. the more I think the future of the new IA-03 depends on whether Dallas County is included. Dallas was by far the fastest-growing county in Iowa, and was among the fastest-growing counties in the nation during the past decade. It’s immediately to the west of Polk County (Des Moines area) and contains lots of suburban sprawl/exurban development.

    During the 1990s Dallas and Polk were both in the same Congressional district (which was then IA-04), but after the 2000 redistricting Dallas got thrown into the new IA-04, while Polk was the population center of the new IA-03. So, Tom Latham has been representing Dallas County for the past decade.  It would be a huge help to him to have Dallas in a Polk County-based IA-03.

    Most 4-district Iowa maps I’ve seen put Dallas and Polk together. That includes abgin’s effort and two of the three maps discussed here (the ones labeled N and K).

    I would like to see Dallas go into Steve King’s district, the new IA-04.

  3. Rhode Island is only 60,831 people larger than Montana.  So once again the smallest districts in the country will be RI-1 and RI-2 (followed by WY-AL) and the largest will by MT-AL followed by DE-AL.

  4. Mostly expected, but nonetheless good. As I’ve said before, this likely means NV-03 will be made safer for Joe Heck while NV-04 becomes at least a Lean Dem seat. And while I’ve expected either Former Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley or incoming Assembly Speaker John Oceguera (who, btw, will be termed out in 2012) to be the instant NV-04 frontrunner, it STILL looks like Dina Titus isn’t going away quietly. I guess she has something on Buckley & Oceguera, since it sounds an awful lot like she has her sights on NV-04.

    Should make for a(n even more) fun 2012 primary…

  5. but more of nasty surprise for democrats.

    1. Its hard to put a smiley face on a second seat for Florida.  

    2. The second seat loss in NY almost makes a 1 & 1 shared party loss inevitable.

    3. The democrats under the gun in MO as VRA issues would seem to weaken Carnahan plus nearly all of the population loss in the state is in St Louis area.

    4. Washington could be a bright spot but even there its up to a nonpartisan redistricting board that could do just about anything.  There are three democrat incumbents who won with narrow margins so things could be unsettled there as well?

    So on the edges slightly worse for the democrats then expected.  

  6. Would have given Bush 284 electoral votes to Al Gore’s 253 (assuming the DC elector didnt abstain) instead of Bush’s 271 to Al Gore’s 267 (again counting the DC elector for Gore).

    That gives the GOP +14 electoral votes in 10 years.

  7. http://senate.gov/legislative/

    The following 11 Republicans voted for cloture:

    Lamar Alexander (TN)

    Bob Bennett (UT) — lame duck, defeated for re-nomination at state GOP convention.

    Scott Brown (MA)

    Thad Cochran (MS)

    Susan Collins (ME)

    Bob Corker (TN)

    Johnny Isakson (GA)

    Richard Lugar (IN)

    Lisa Murkowski (AK) — Was defeated for renomination in GOP primary, but apparently won the general election as write-in candidate.

    Olympia Snowe (ME)

    George Voinovich (OH) — lame duck, retired in 2010.

    The following five Senators missed the vote: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), who is retiring; Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO), who is retiring, Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who is now the Governor-elect of Kansas; Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), who is retiring; and Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), who has been recovering from surgery for early-stage prostate cancer.

    If Wyden’s absent for the final vote too and everyone else makes it, they only need 66 to reach the 2/3rds threshold since it has to be 2/3rds of the chamber who are present.

  8. It’s way too early to be looking so far into the future, but I just had to post the question – is Maine looking at being a one-representative (i.e. At-large) district after the 2020 or 2030 Census? I can’t imagine that state losing one of their districts a decade or two from now, as they’ve had two Reps. for a while. Perhaps the state isn’t growing much in population – I don’t know, I haven’t been there in a long time.

  9. AZ although a commission draws districts the fast growing conservative Phoenix suburbs will likely have to be given an additional seat. Had AZ picked up 2 seats the other could have been a Latino VRA district.  Giffords district likely becomes more compact and Dem friendly.

    NV the 4th district will be Dem leaning but Heck will be helped by this as well resulting in a 2-2 delegation.

    UT the GOP obviously will draw new district to favor them. Only question is do they go after Matheson too.

    OH it will be hard for the GOP to get rid of two Democrats.  Sutton’s district will go for sure.

    MI Peters will be drawn in with Levin

    MO Carnahan is odd man out

    NY two loses mean one upstate GOP district and one downstate non minority Dem district will go.  

    PA Critz will be without a district. Holden may get a super Dem district in a band of territory from Harrisburg to Scranton. Trading territory with Barletta.  GOP will attempt to strengthen their suburban Philly districts too.  

    GA new GOP district north of Atlanta. Barrow may be targeted too.

    SC new coastal GOP district

    LA one GOPer will be w/o a district

    IA commission with likely Boswell/Latham matchup

    MN no loss of seat and GOP state leg control means Bachmann will be here to kick around still

    IL Dems need to go for gold here. Draw Schrock and Schilling together in a Dem quad city/Peoria district.  Draw more Dems into the Dold and Walsh districts as well as Biggerts.

    IN Donnelly will be targeted

    NC Ellmers district will be made more Republican.  Miller could lose a lot of Dems to Price making his district vulnerable and Kissell will lose some minority Charlotte precincts to Watts leaving Kissell in tough shape

    FL once VRA districts are drawn GOP will still be able to draw a very favorable map even assuming the redistricting amendment stands up in court.  

    TX four new seats means 2 for each party with the DEMs being VRA districts

    CA hard to say with the commission. Likely to see more Latinos in Congress though but maybe at the expense of other minority or white Dem incumbents.  

    WA Herrara will need to shed some population likely Dem leaning area around Olympia helping her. Reichert loses some Dem territory and gains some GOP voters from Hastings. New 10th will be Dem leaning

    MA -1 for Dems

    NJ a Lance/Holt matchup

  10. That has to be somewhat disconcerting, no?

    If the old Western block (US and Europe) is lagging in population growth behind India, China, Brazil and other emerging economies, it is only a matter of time before we lose our economic (probably happening right under our noses) and military edge. I don’t think we’ll lose our cultural attaction to the world at large, say w/r/t China or India, but who knows.

    We have more than enough land and resources to absorb at least 150 million more people and I think the only way that works is with a more flexible but economic based immigration policy. We seem to be going backwards in what made us great in the 19th and 20th century.

  11. Hopefully I’ll be back later with what would be my “Compromise 8 Seat Minnesota Map!”  (That’s in the voice monster truck rally ads are always in.)

  12. So close to the removal of Michelle Bachmanns district… hopefully the Minnesota legislature finds a way to rip her district to pieces regardless….

  13. Does anyone have any idea why Periello voted against the Food Safety Bill today? He was one of only eight Democrats to vote against it, and the rest were mostly Blue Dogs. Perhaps the bill negatively impacts his district specifically in some way? Strange way to end an amazing term.  

  14. See The Philadelphia Jewish Voice http://blog.pjvoice.com/diary/… for a detailed analysis including which state just barely avoided losing a seat, how this would have affected the Obama-McCain election, and who will control the redistricting process in the states which are winning and losing seats.

  15. previously thought.  Minnesota would have lost a seat if it had 8,739 fewer people, so it had just over 1,000 people per district to spare.

    The data is on page 1 of this 4 page PDF from EDS:


    North Carolina lost out on a 14th seat by 15,754 people, which was the number reported in the press conference.  Missouri was short by just 15,029.

  16. PPPolling is out with numbers on Nelson’s re-elect. He leads all comers, except Jeb Bush, but his job approval & ballott test are all very enemic;


    Nelson 36/33 (33 not sure)

    Bush 51/40

    Mack 20/24 (56% have no opinion w/ all those new ppl in FL, does anyone remember his dad anymore?)

    Lemieux 16/27 (58% no opinion)

    Bush 49

    Nelson 44

    Nelson 44

    Connie Mack 36

    Nelson 47

    Lemieux 36

    Nelson is a tough cookie and a solid fit for a Dem to win in FL, but this is going to be a whole different world than what he faced in ’06 (best atmosphere for Dems since ’74 & running against the worst statewide candidate in state history).

    I’d rate it a lean Dem until either Bush gets in (no chance) or one of the others show they can put together a statewide operation & get their name ID and define themselves before Nelson does it for them.  Anyone know how much money Nelson has in the bank?

  17. And I was thinking TX would win only +3 and FL only +1.

    They are interesting changes, and surely not as bad for the democrats except the new gain for Texas.

  18. is non-partisan so I doubt you’ll see someone just axes, more likely Holt and someone (I bet Lance) get thrown together in 1 midstate district.

  19. It’s going to be tough for it to be Holt and Lance (though geographically their hometowns are close), because that and the Shore are where the population has grown.  If Holt ends up in a Lance district, it’s going to have to be more Hunterdon/Somerset than it is now, which would give Lance the advantage.  Pallone is likely to take Holt’s Monmouth portion.  It would seem difficult to put Clinton and Northern Hunterdon in with a district that goes down to Trenton and out to the shore.  More likely the 5th becomes all Rural, with Hunterdon/Warren/Sussex, and it’s Garrett and Lance, with the Pascrell and Rothman districts eating the Bergen part of the 5th.  The 7th shifts down to Somerset/Middlesex/Mercer.  Pallone’s is more Monmouth, Smith is Trenton South, and Runyan is Ocean. (more or less)  Can’t wait to play with the map.

  20. Since it’s losing a seat, there will likely be a “fair fight” district, probably between, as you suggest, Holt and Lance.

  21. and lost….

    And if I remember right, NC got the 435th seat in 2000. Interesting that they (NC) got the 436th seat this time….

    Will they turn around and sue the Census, in Utah style, perhaps alleging an undercount of military dependents or something similar? (in ’00, Utah alledged an undercount of Mormon missionaries)

  22. In my opinion, they won’t specifically target 1 member. Holt is is the toughest shape because of the shape and location of his district, but they won’t just cut it up to leave him without a district, more likely he and another mid-state rep (Lance as I mentioned or Smith). Frank Pallone is an easy target too, but he has too much clout in DC and back home so I think Holt draws the short straw among Dems.

  23. more than 1 suit this year, and the legal argument is going to sound a lot like Jake Blues pleading to Carrie Fisher in The Blues Brother “Plague, locusts it wasn’t my fault I swear to GOD!”

  24. There’s a new GOP-majority legislature which is fully in charge of drawing the new districts. But the Gov and Atty General are Democrats, so would they sue just to hand another seat to the GOP-held legislature? Maybe Perdue and Cooper will say ‘no thanks’ to a lawsuit so NC might go +2 in 2020.


  25. Ah, I see the update now. It’s North Carolina. I was curious because that’s the state that would benefit if the DC House Voting Rights Act expanded the House. There was no hope it would be any state as good as Utah was for Republicans, though. Hardly guaranteed that a new NC seat would be Republican. So DCHVRA can be declared officially dead, I’d say. Need a new plan for giving DC residents representation.

  26. A new lawsuit seeks to force the House to expand, claiming the current cap of 435 is a violation of the “one man, one vote” doctrine:

    The U.S. Supreme Court could decide as soon as today if justices will hear a case on whether those disparities violate the principle of “one man, one vote.” Justices were scheduled to discuss the case behind closed doors Friday.

    The lawsuit, Clemons v. U.S. Department of Commerce, seeks a court order to force Congress to add more members so that the sizes of congressional districts would be more equal.

    Last July, in a decision that quoted liberally from the Founding Fathers, a special three-judge panel ruled against changing the current system. “We see no reason to believe that the Constitution as originally understood or long applied imposes the requirements of close equality among districts in different states,” it ruled.


  27. That seems kind of incongruous.

    Other strange things – why didn’t Colorado get a seat? And why does NY have the same number of reps as FL when NY has more pop.?

  28. That article is from last Monday. The SCOTUS declared the following:

    “The judgment of the United States District Court for the

    Northern District of Mississippi is vacated, and the case is remanded with instructions to dismiss the complaint for lack of jurisdiction.”

    In other words, the lawsuit is dead.

  29. Wyoming will have the smallest house district in the country with just 1 rep for 563,626 people while the average district will be 1 rep for every 710K people.

    Now compare Wyoming to Montanta which will have 1 rep for its 989,415 people.

    An argument could be made to have as many house seats to approximetly equal the population of the smallest state.

    This would require a house of Representatives with 547 seats.

  30. That it’s always on the verge of losing or gaining a seat.  That it was very close to the national average (9.7%) is why it stayed the same.

    In terms of “inconsistencies” such as CO and NC missing out on seat gains despite growing faster than WA, just keep in mind that some states may have barely made their gains in 2000, and therefore had more of a gap to just get back to even.

  31. the suit was actually brought buy some right-wing lawyers (http://www.apportionment.us/) but they were right. I think part of what got them in trouble was a pair of theoretical calculations for getting the disparity below %10, that puts the house into the thousands of members and scared the lower court. They dropped those proposals in their appeal but it was stuck in the minds of the government lawyers. They should have just gone straight for the fact that congress no longer decides the size of the new legislature, it’s fixed. If congressmen had to take a vote every 10 years to eliminate the seats of their fellow members, I think they might decide for themselves that 435 is too low.

  32. Seems like everyone in Massachusetts thinks that someone in the delegation giving their seat to run for the Senate is in the cards.

    Anything similar a possibility in New Jersey?  

  33. are the seats with weaker incumbents. I think Pallone or Holt are not as endangered as Runyan. The republicans can accept lose NJ-03 making R+ the neighbor NJ-02.

  34. The drawback to using the smallest state’s population as the divisor is that it would, by definition, relegate the smallest state to a single member indefinitely, although I cry crockadile tears for Wyoming in this matter.  That and, at some point, even the smallest state is going to have too many people to put into a single district.  Decades down the line, the smallest state will have a million people.  Is that a good divisor for apportionment?

  35. I have heard that Lance is looking at challenging Menendez if his district gets mauled. I think he is hoping to get a favorable district for a fight with Holt (or even a pass if they go North with most of NJ-12), but I’m sure he know if he lets word get out he’s looking at (or willing) to run statewide his district will become the bullseye for the redistricting committee. Most I’ve heard is he’s lining up a statewide fundraising operation – just in case.

  36. compare the reapportionments of 1910 and earlier with the reapportionments after 1910, because the House was expanded every census until 1910. I did some number-crunching on California and U.S. population and House numbers from 1850 to 1910 and found that if the House had been frozen from 1850 onwards, at 234 seats, California would not have gained any seats twice, in 1870 and 1900. If the House continued to be expanded after 1910, then California along with most other states would be expected to gain seats in 2010. True CA would not gain as fast as the states that are currently projected to gain seats, but it would still gain nonetheless.


    California population: 92,597

    U.S. population: 23,191,876

    U.S. House district size: 99,111 people per district

    CA delegation: 1


    California population: 379,994 (310.37% increase from 1850)

    U.S. population: 31,443,321 (35.58% increase from 1850)

    U.S. House district size: 134,373 people per district

    California delegation: 3 (+2)


    California population: 560,247 (47.44% increase from 1860)

    U.S. population: 39,818,449 (26.64% increase from 1860)

    U.S. House district size: 170,164 people per district

    California delegation: 3 (no change)


    California population: 864,694 (54.34% increase from 1870)

    U.S. population: 50,189,209 (26.05% increase from 1870)

    U.S. House district size: 214,484 people per district

    California delegation: 4 (+1)


    California population: 1,213,398 (40.33% increase from 1880)

    U.S. population: 62,947,714 (25.42% increase from 1880)

    U.S. House district size: 269,007 people per district

    California delegation: 5 (+1)


    California population: 1,485,053 (22.39% increase from 1890)

    U.S. population: 76,212,168 (21.07% increase from 1890)

    U.S. House district size: 325,693 people per district

    California delegation: 5 (no change)


    California population: 2,377,549 (60.10% increase from 1900)

    U.S. population: 92,228,496 (21.02% increase from 1910)

    U.S. House district size: 394,139 people per district

    California delegation: 6 (+1)

  37. But interestingly enough the fastest growing states in the first 8 years of the decade, like Nevada and Florida, also lost population in the last 2 years. It will be interesting to see what kind of population trend emerges in this next decade. I have a feeling that the kind of real estate speculation that fueled growth here in The Southwest can’t be counted on to do the trick again.

  38. I said it in another thread, but for a state to lose 800,000 jobs and to have only replaced a fraction of those, that we lost three-fifths of one percent of our population over and entire decade is nothing short of a miracle.  

    You know, the country has been anxious about jobs the last three or so years, I’d just like to invite them to Michigan where we started out with a state recession that lasted much of the decade, and then had a national recession heaped on top of that.  That immigration and the birth rate haven’t completely collapsed like migration has, here, is pretty amazing.

  39. 4 of the 8 states that gained seats this cycle (TX, FL, NV & WA) have no state income tax.

    While states that lost seats tend to by high tax states like NY, NJ & MA.

    I dont think this is just a coincidence.

  40. Nevada has an official unemployment rate of 14.7% clearly higher than Michigan.  It has a monster foreclosure problem.  As things stand now, the first two primary/caucus states have much better than average economies (Iowa 6.7% unemployment, New Hampshire at 5.4%).  South Carolina is about average.  It would be Nevada where unemployment becomes the big issue in early 2012.

  41. if Berkeley runs for Senate that Titus was willing to move closer into Vegas to run in that district.

    Does the Governor have veto power on redistricting in NV? Seems he’d push for a 2-1-1 map, but the legislature will want a 3D-1G map (thus a failrly obvious 2-2 map seems probable).

  42. Not really “indefinitely”; there’s nothing that says it would always be Wyoming as the smallest state.  Plus, for at least the next 100 years, I don’t see any way that the smallest state won’t only have 1 Rep with the current system regardless.  And Montana’s at 1 million already, so we’re getting closer to it being the divisor anyway!  

  43. Actually, Dina currently has a house in NV-01 (near UNLV)… But this neighborhood is all but assured to be placed in the new NV-04, so why should Dina move? She may end up much luckier (or is it luck?) than any of us had earlier expected.

    Besides, State Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford is termed out in 2012 and has already hinted that he’s fed up with Carson City and ready to look east to DC. (And his house is virtually guaranteed to stay in the new NV-01.)

    And yes, soon-to-be-Governor Sandoval does have veto power over redistricting, so Legislature Democrats know they can’t get away with a 3-1 (D-R) map. And since Dems need a few GOP votes to get the 2/3 we need for taxes (as well as a possible Sandoval veto) in the next budget, redistricting will be a bargaining chip in the budget, and Horsford & Oceguera will have to throw the GOPers a bone anyway.

    So it makes the most sense to do a 2-2 map keeping NV-01 safe for Dems, NV-02 safe for GOPers, and splitting the difference in taking enough Dem-heavy precincts out of NV-03 to make that seat easier for Joe Heck to win in 2012 (even WITH Obama on the ballot again) and make NV-04 easier for a Dem to win (and wow, Dina may get her comeback after all!).

  44. I’ve just been busy over the holidays, so I haven’t had as much time to hang with y’all. But now that I’m visiting the family in Cali and we’re “rained in” (HUGE Pineapple Express storm slamming LA & OC), I can sit here and catch up with all the fun here.

    So I’m assuming that there will be far more DRA scenario diaries now that we know which House seats are moving where… 😉

  45. and gives no source for the rumor, but;

    “Quick reactions:

    Already there’s speculation that New Jersey mapmakers will target newly-elected Republican Jon Runyan.”

    In an incumbent protection plan where 1 incumbent must die it makes sense to target the newest member, but from playing with the map I’m not sure this is possible (Ocean county is growing too fast and Pallone & Holt will want no part of it.

  46. They push Runyan further eastwards and combine Holt and Lance’s district.  That deals with Ocean Co. and makes a fair fight combined district.

  47. 1. Put Delaware River portions of NJ-3 (Cherry Hill) and NJ-4 in with Trenton, Princeton Rt. 1 corridor from NJ-12. Makes a Dem district for Holt that looks quite different from what he has now, but has some of the main population centers.

    2. Expand NJ-1 outward at NJ-2’s expense. No partisan change.

    2. Split Ocean County parts of NJ-3 between LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Smith (NJ-4).

    3. Give central Middlesex and Monmouth portions of NJ-12  (East Brunswick) to NJ-6.

    Bye-bye, Runyan.

  48. With the most republican areas of the NJ-03 the republicans can make R+ the district of F LoBiondo NJ-02.

    It is just what I was thinking.

  49. I did a map on Dave’s that did just about that, but I didn’t take Pallone’s home into account (which our host did when he made a map).

    Either way I don’t see Runyan being the prime target (especially since the guys as big as a house and I certainly wouldn’t want him knocking on my door late at night!).

  50. … but that’s a pipe dream unfortunately.

    I actually think Dana Rohrabacher’s bill is probably the most promising vehicle – DC remains a separate entity but its citizens are counted as Maryland residents for purposes of congressional apportionment, meaning DC will be included in a Maryland Congressional District and will get representation through Maryland’s senators.

    I’m sure there are logistical issues, like who oversees vote counts, etc., and there’d also be some question about the fate of the 23rd Amendment. But short of statehood or full retrocession (neither of which seem likely), it may be the best option.  

  51. Under the new rules limiting gerrymandering, it’s hard to predict what will become of Florida.

    As for MO, Carnahan will be the one who is cut.  Nixon will have to cut a seat and the AA members of the State Legislature are threatening to help the GOP override a veto if the governor doesn’t protect Cleaver or Clay.

  52. I’ve played with Missouri in Dave’s a lot recently (and assuming his numbers are good) then Carnahan is likely a dead man walking. MO-1 is way under and being a VRA district (and AA St reps openly saying they will defend MO-1 & 5) it seem destined that Clay’s district will swallow up the rest of St. Louis City (along with an adjustment to maximize the AA precinct in St. Louis County) robbing Carnahan of the areas that carried him to victory in ’10 (he was dead even in St. Louis County & lost Jefferson & St. Genevieve Counties).

    So I think Akins district comes south to eat up the rest of St. Louis county while holding enough of St. Charles county to keep him safe vs Carnahan in a general (don’t forget that Akin is now chair of the seapower subcommittee which overseas naval aircraft purchases from – guess who? – Boeing!). Emerson’s district can come north to take St. Genevieve county and she and MO-9 can split up Jefferson county (slight lean D county, lots of union jobs still, but more and more St. Louis transplants moving out of the county for huge houses and long commutes).

  53. but when you make a broad statement like that, you need to back it up. You haven’t done anything remotely close.

    In Texas, most of the growth is from Hispanic immigration. Do you think that immigrants really care about state income tax rates, at all?  

  54. Intersting to see what happens in MO-5, KC doesn’t have many lead D areas nearby so the district will probably come East to swallow up the rest of Jackson County, shouldn’t endanger Cleaver, certainly not in a presidential year where Obama’s margin in KC will be HUGE (even in ’10 it was more than enough to keep Turk at bay easily).

    So in other words as long as they don’t split KC, it’s not a VRA district, but aside from legal issues no surrounding reps want any part of KC or even Jackson county and as you said the AA st rep members would rather throw in their lot with the GOP to protect their representation than stand with Nixon for partisan reasons.

  55. as the new rules  and VRA matters make that state a question mark. The state legislators, however, will still draw the lines.    

    I draw your attention, however, to Michigan where the GOP drew the lines with very similar rules to Florida.  In MI you can’t cut city or county lines and the only concession to that plan is VRA considerations.

    Allen West’s seat is bizarre but its that way (partly) to stack AA voters in Hasting’s seat.  Some counties will have to be split in FL and if they just happen to be Leon and Alchau what can you do?  

    The GOP will have to hustle to hold onto Young’s & West’s seats in the redistricting process.  They might also buy some peace for everyone in Central Florida by creating a majority/minority seat in Orlando area.  

    The GOP is overperforming congressional seats in Florida now  and have control of the process so who knows for sure?  

  56. But under the rules they can’t make the districts quite as ugly or as pro-Republican as they made under Jeb’s control.  For instance, FL-22 will have to be fixed.  That’s too ugly to survive.

  57. AA members wanting to preserve Emanuel Cleaver. And Cleaver also seems to be a good congressmen too.

    And it’s too bad it’s going to have to be Carnahan; I think there needs to be one AA district, but it would be nice if its not Clay.

  58. It really is an offense to the one man-one vote doctrine that Clay gets to keep his seat while Carnahan loses his b/c Clay is black and Carnahan is white. Clay is, from folks I know who live there, a thoroughly useless rep (as is quite a bit of the CBC members, but I digress) and really doesn’t derserve to be “protected”.

    Moreoever, this idea that you need black seats to elect a black rep is utter BS. Gwen Moore, Andre Carson and Keith Ellison are black folks in plurality or majority white districts. Having to keep a black seat just because perpetuates terrible representation for minorities and in some cases, disadvantages other minorities (e.g. in CA, where all but 1 of the seats held by AA reps are actually majority or plurality Hispanic seats).

    There are a good number of pols of different races who can do a better job than many of these legacy black reps. We need more Hansen Clarkes and we’d probably have more if we didn’t entrench some of these black reps to the point of them losing only because of corruption.  

  59. adding more AA to West’s district might not hurt him as much as it would other GOP Reps. As long as the GOP could draw other white Dem areas out of his district he might be OK.

  60. will be less nasty then before.  That’s why I referenced Michigan which is as neat and clean as any state in the union.  There are hardly any county lines that are crossed and yet one could easily argue that they favor the GOP.

    In urban areas with VRA problems I am sure what will happen.  The lines in Broward and Palm Beach county are so tortured that it hurts my eyes.

    I think drawing a seat for Allen West might be hard but then again if a new seat comes up North of Palm Beach he might just move or even run without moving.  He does not live in the district now.  

  61. Come to think of it, when’s the last time when one of the CBC did? There are some great members of that caucus. In the case of Clay vs Carnahan, I would support Carnahan, but I would probably support Emanuel Cleaver if he was against Carnahan. (which can’t happen)

    Anyway, since it will remain an AA district, Clay will win a primary with Carnahan.  

  62. The city of St. Louis, which will be the population center and heart of the Democratic seat in eastern MO, is majority black. Also, Carnahan’s district has a lot more Republican precincts in it than Clay’s, making it easier to dismantle and give to Emerson and Akin. If you were to discard the VRA and try to make the most Democratic district possible in greater St. Louis (which is what the legislature will try to do), you would get something that is over 45% black and both geographically and demographically favorable to Clay in a primary. Tweaking the boundaries to get to the maximum black percentage doesn’t really change the outcome much.

  63. that totally eliminates one of the three Democratic districts.  There will need to be some compromise between the governor and legislature.  One solution would be to create a “fair fight” district for Carnahan and Akin.

  64. Utah didn’t just sue because they lost, they sued because Mormon missionaries weren’t counted and if they were counted then they’d have passed NC.

    That’s the key point.  

  65. from the Caribbean and the rest of Latin America. And with the image of boat people in mind, I can’t but help think of FL as a border state.

  66. Why do illegals get counted towards seats? Texas undoubtedly gained at least 1 seat purely due to illegals, if I was the state with the 436th seat I’d be livid.

  67. The GOP is close to a supermajority in both houses and the only way to make an Akin vs Carnahan fair fight district would be to put tons of St. Louis county into MO-1, which the AA members of the state house has said they’ll vote against. This is also unlikely since (as I mentioned before) Akin is the subcommittee chair for Seapower which means he’ll be in a strong position to protect Boeing’s Superhornet production.

    Even if you tried to make a fair fight district the 2 of the fastest growing counties in MO are St. Charles & Jefferson County so making 1 district of all non-AA St. Louis county wouldn’t get you to full population and St. Charles is heavily republican now and jefferson county isn’t nearly as friendly to Carnahan than it was to Gephardt back in the day (mostly due to rise fo religious/evangelical voters no longer tied to union jobs and a strong influx of St. Louis County voters who are trading long commutes for giant houses you just can’t find in south county anymore.

  68. I just thought it was curious you didn’t mention Cleaver when talking about AA reps who win in white majority districts.

    If Clay (or whoever would eventually represent MO-1) had to work for votes in the non-AA portions of the STL metro he (or she!) might be far more acceptable to you.  

  69. Yet the battleground states largely remain the same. Obama may keep VA and even NC in play, but were still looking at a ton of ads and visits to the same 10-12 states.

  70. from 286 Bush 252 Kerry (assuming the 1 dumbass from MN who voted for John Edwards for President instead of Kerry recants that vote) to Bush 292 to Kerry 246.

    What’s interesting about this change is it means that even if Ohio (and its post 2010 18 electoral votes) flipped from Bush to Kerry, Bush still would have won the election with 274 electoral votes to Kerry’s 264.

  71. with Boner in charge of the House.

    Rohrabacher’s bill does sound like the only solution likely to get approved any time soon. Personally, I’d like to see DC slimmed down to just the federal buildings and properties, with the rest retro-ceded back to Maryland. It’s silly for Congress to be mucking around with DC’s city politics.

  72. would be to carve back the District of Columbia to just the White House, the Capital, the Mall, and a few other federal buildings. The rest of the city (i.e., all the people) would become Washington, Maryland.

  73. Rohrabacher’s bill would require a constitutional amendment, making it harder to accomplish than statehood or retrocession. And it wouldn’t solve the biggest problem with congressional control of DC, which is the constant meddling in our local government in order to please constituents by sticking it to those liberal urbanites on guns, marriage equality, abortion, needle exchange, and anything else the DC council and mayor do that people living hundreds or thousands of miles away don’t approve of. Only statehood or retrocession would give DC residents the same rights of representation and local control that other US citizens have.

  74. For all the teabaggers’ whining about “illegal aliens” [And btw, what are these? I’ve NEVER seen immigrants drop from UFOs… Except maybe when Sharrrrrrrrrrrrron Angle’s spaceship landed in Reno. 😉 ], Texas is gaining seats BECAUSE of so much immigration happening there! That’s why at least one, but perhaps two, of their four new CDs must be VRA minority-majority.


  75. are about 300K ahead of Rhode Island.

    Rhode Island is on the hot seat next.

    I think West Virginia could be dropping a seat unless its area near DC (80 miles or so) keep growing.  

  76. GOP needs about three state representatives to agree to a map to get 2/3 majorities.

    CD5 needs about 120K-my estimate-so what territory it gets could be critical.  Its not a VRA issue.

    In CD1 needs about 150K and the only source of AA voters is in CD3. Clay does not want 150K from St Charles or SW St Louis county.  Lacy will want Clayton & U city area plus st louis city.  That’s Carnahan’s base.  

    You can take 40K from Carnahan (a 1/2 measure) from U city or Clayton area but then MO3 needs 150K from rural areas. That might not be enough to save him.

    Its possible that AA legislators will look out after Cleaver & Clay.  Can you blame them?  For years no one looked after them so why should they not look after #1.

  77. potential yesses. Wouldn’t surprise me if 3 of the 4 voted yes, assuming they’re back for the main vote.

  78. I don’t know how quickly the north has been hemhorraging people, but there has been growth in both the Boston exurbs of the southeast and the Connecticut Valley in the west. NH should be OK with its 2 districts for the foreseeable future–Maine and RI are the ones who need to worry.

    Also, Montana barely missed getting a seat! Did anyone see that coming?

  79. Corrine Brown (its all about self-preservation with her and ethics), Lacy Clay, Artur Davis (Democratic dick), Danny Davis, Alcee Hastings (corruption & perjury), Eddie Bernice Johnson (the scholarship thing), Hank Johnson (though it’s more because he’s useless than corrupt), Charlie Rangel (self-explanatory), Laura Richardson (look up her home), Bobby Rush (the Burris thing), Maxine Waters (self-explanatory), Mel Watt (the Ralph Nader incident), and Jessie Jackson (self-explanatory) have all done questionable things.

    That’s 32% of the caucus.  

  80. Which is another reason for doing something about the lopsided nature of the most Democratic seats and the most Republican seats – remember the biggest GOP PVI is R+29 while there are 25 districts with a greater PVI than D+29.

  81. No I did not. I said that corruption isn’t nearly limited to the CBC. Corruption is rampant in congress and I don’t like the easy use of the CBC. Give more examples. You can use the CBC, but us another group or throw in Caucasian/Hispanic/Republican members. We all know corruption isn’t just limited to the CBC, so don’t imply it.

  82. Consider for instance Bobby Rush’s demands that Roland Burris not be “lynched”. If you’ve got ethical problems, you just claim that they were all invented by a racist lynch mob.  

  83. that wanting to protect your district and your seat (Corrine Brown) isn’t corrupt. Every single member of the United States Congress would do the same or at least most. It’s apart of the “grand” tradition. Artur Davis by your own admission is just a dick. I don’t know much about Hank Johnson, but he seems to be your average congressman. Which I guess is useless (Please explain that). Ralph Nadar alleges that Mel Watt uttered those remarks. Unless there is physical proof or he admits it, it doesn’t matter and it’s not corrupt. If you want to talk about possible corruption on his part, talk about his campaign contributions, not his alleged “reverse” racism.    

  84. And Democrats and the CBC are very lucky that Jay Nixon won in 2008. I’m not sure it’s possible, but Republicans would take a long look at softening Cleaver and making a 6-1-1 map with a swing seat in greater KC if they held the governorship.

  85. You don’t have to look far to find corruption in Congress. Denny Hastert made himself a lot of money funding a big road to go near real estate he owned.

  86. I really find it quite annoying that so called “liberals” can throw out some of the worst stereotypes…corruption in Congress did not start and nor will it end with CBC members.  As far as most of them being “useless” I think that is also a broad generalization b/c you could say this about most members of Congress.  I mean what is so great about Issa, Barton etc?

  87. Maine is several decades away from possibly losing its second seat, even with slow growth. Even today it has slightly more people than NH. RI will lose it in 2020 for certain.  

  88. It’s like asking for a recount when you lose by 80 (like Utah did last time) and losing by 16,000 (like NC did this time).

  89. to become as horribly overcrowded as they were in that movie “Soylent Green”.  I’d rather all those lands you speak of that can hold up to 150 million more people to remain unspoiled.

    Besides, China’s population will start to drift down in the near future due to their one-child-only-or-big-fine law.

  90. I don’t know how they could draw Matheson into a more Republican district – it’s pretty Republican as it is.  

  91. why I harp on the preference for AA congressman to have 60% or more minority voters in their district.

    Think GA4–MD4–MI13– AL7 white primary voters will boot out a rascally congressperson.  Now MD4 was alot about issues like Iraq war or whatever but AA voters stuck with these incumbent congressman but the key vote was outside of the Black community.

  92. They could split SLC four ways instead of current three ways given him even less of a base.

    I am also not so sure in TX the GOP might not try this with Doggett. Travis Co is currently split 3 ways, if they split it four or five ways they may be able to get rid of him since he is the only DEM sitting in a non VRA district

  93. I think it’s clear that we can start dismantling some of these districts so that AA’s actually have to work for these seats.  Hell, one could almost call our Congressional districts segregated and most areas of the country, we just dont need that anymore to get an AA elected.  

    And by spreading around the AA’s, they become viewed as more electable because they have to become so, and then we spread the Democratic wealth with other districts and make it so that more Democrats can be elected in general.  Imagine if this were done smartly with Chicago, could go from 3 AA’s in AA majority districts to having 7 AA’s districts in districts that extend more out into the suburbs.

  94. to give him more of Austin in order to shore up McCaul and Carter.  That’s what many of the maps I’ve been seeing say.

  95. You may be right, but the community would not be served by the party that has proven their hostility to their interests time and again obtaining an ironclad lock on every seat surrounding St. Louis.

    Even looking at it less idealistically, Clay might be better served by having, to a point, more Republicans in his district instead of more white Democrats. If a lot of the whites in his district are Republican, they’re not going to of much help to any potential primary challenger the way that a whole bunch of white Democrats might be.  

  96. Dogget’s seat probably can’t get anymore Republican, wasn’t close in 2010, give up and give him the seat he should have.

  97. Tried to kill off Doggett? And yet “the dude abides”? Depending on what the minority population in Travis County looks like, they may write it off as one of the VRA districts.

  98. that low taxes = great for business and jobs. The employers around where I live seem to have forgotten the memo. And when I ask these people that spew platitudes about Texas being “open for business” I ask for proof in the form of actual job ads, but never got any answers.

  99. I believe the Internet boom of the ’90s was fueled by the educated who immigrated to the US, staffing the startups that brought us into this era.

    The US has historically had an advantage appealing to the best and the brightest of the world, an advantage that is being dissipated by the wingnuts who would stop current immigration cold.

    I do want our cities to have that critical mass of educated from everywhere that will bring us new economic development.

  100. I decided, now with the official numbers ready to be reported, doing maps only based off of county pop. estimates isn’t that fun anymore.  This release of info makes me downright hungry for the Dave’s update of what will be the census info!

  101. is that they will have a nice compact Salt City county seat for Matheson that will contain his home and the most republican parts of the county. No Summitt county.

    This will be a republican seat for anyone but Matheson.  1/2 of the more democratic leftover  parts will go North & South in a pattern similar to the current arrangement.  

    Matheson might move on or be defeated in a primary and the GOP will get the seat.

    If not you have a reliable vote from Matheson for nearly every measure the GOP puts forward.  Plus if you divided SLC 4 ways he still might win.  

  102. In Salt Lake County? I doubt it’s high enough yet for VRA to take a closer look, but eventually Utah will need a minority-majority district. As it is now, does the Utah GOP really want to continue its quixotic quest to kill off Matheson’s political career? Honestly, I think he p**ses off local PROGRESSIVES more (they’re always complaining about his Blue Dog ways) than the GOPers there.

  103. Today was state-level data. The local-level data needed for redistricting won’t be released until February or March.

  104. The one-child policy is about to produce a massive crunch, not least because it has de facto encouraged female infanticide. I believe the Chinese equivalent of millennials has a nearly 56-44 Male/Female breakdown.

  105. since A) in all four of those cases, the primary winner was black

    B) without exit poll data, there’s no proof those winners weren’t the choice of black voters

    C) even if you wanted to, I don’t think you could get MO-01’s black percentage that high (and it’s already below 50%, which is obviously acceptable if that’s the way it is now).

  106. cause black voters will definitely vote for Republicans as long as they’re black, right?

    **sees 3-1 Steele loss in Baltimore city/Prince George’s**


  107. Both Georgia and Michigan were expected to pass Michigan sometime in the second half of this decade, but they didn’t.  They grew fast, but their growth was overstated, for sure.  Surely, within the next year or two Georgia will finally pass Michigan, but it was supposed to back in 2008.

  108. have no idea. He voted against Wall Street Reform to. Quite baffling. Still love the guy though. I hope he remains in politics.

  109. I do know that at one point the bill would have been very restrictive on small farmers, but Sen. Tester added an amendment that provided for some exemptions. That’s all I know(I regrettably lost interest in the issue a while ago), and it’s possible that some people thought that the exemptions didn’t provide enough protection, and Periello felt likewise.

  110. Don’t low-tax Georgia & South Carolina have some of the highest unemployment rates around? Low taxes are ok but don’t expect a great educational system that creates high-tech jobs. And supposedly high-tax California (it isn’t actually that high-tax) has been doing pretty well, all things considered. Some choice quotes:

    The Public Policy Institute of California reports that from 1992 to 2006, business relocations to other states accounted for just 1.7% of California’s job losses. Nationally, an average of about 2% of job loss in [all] states was due to businesses moving out.

    Which means California is doing better than other states when it comes to holding onto existing businesses. And how about the old canard that businesses are being choked off by regulation…

    From 2000 to 2009, the number of businesses per capita in California held steady, while the number dropped slightly in Texas, Arizona and Nevada.

    And Texas can eat a bag of dicks….

    Over the last decade, California has seen strong growth. From 1999 to 2009, the state’s GDP rose by 27.2%. That’s better growth than in the U.S. as a whole, which saw GDP growth of 20.2%, or in Texas, where GDP grew by 25.9%.

    Source: Los Angeles Times

  111. Georgia’s taxes aren’t that low. Their income tax is higher than Massachusetts, I believe. Granted much of that is a function of there being many more young families with children in public schools. (Similarly, Utah has high taxes because it has a lot of young dependents.) Cost of living is a much bigger factor than taxes, and there you can credit cheap land which is easy to build on and cheap labor to build with.  

  112. Illegal immigrants do fill out the Census, at least the ones who are approached by Spanish-speaking Census takers who are very gentle in explaining what they’re doing….

    ….of course, that’s what happens in California. I assume in Arizona that illegal immigrants run away at the sight of any official-looking person with a badge.  

  113. the maps have to be submitted to the DOJ for pre-clearance, which is supposed to happen during the summer (by June, I think). Accordingly, the primary is going to be in August this year, instead of the usual June.

  114. that KY will shore up Chandler.  They can give him the Dem-leaning coal counties on his eastern front.

  115. The GOP would never touch Cleaver.  What Republican wants even part of KC in their district?  The GOP would draw a solid 6-2 map by wiping out Carnahan.  The GOP would love to finish the Carnahans.  They will try to make a deal with the black caucus maybe by including some extra black state legislative seats.

  116. will be a democratic-not always a “Cleaver seat”

    Cleaver needs 100K and probably would not want the GOP oriented portion of Jackson county in the 6th district right now.

    He would probably prefer the marginal portions of Clay county (still actually KC MO area) that is across the river.  

    Cleaver would prefer more urban area as opposed to suburban or Rural area.  

    Its going to be a democratic seat but the makeup could vary by 3 to 5%.

  117. Georgia was estimated to pass Michigan in 2010.  They estimated the state at 9.82 million in 2009, so Georgia came in measurably below that.  They also underestimated North Carolina, it seems, which they have projected at 9.38 for 2009.  They also seemed to have overestimated Michigan at 9.96 in 2009, only showing 9.88 for 2010, but still less an overestimate than Georgia, I believe.

    The only good news about Michigan is that the out-migration has actually be slowing, lately.  And, the economy actually began to pick-up, but unfortunately, it didn’t begin to pick up until the spring of this year when most of the bulk of the counting was being done, so the economic pick-up wasn’t apparent in this Census.  It’ll show up in subsequent American Community Surveys and official Census Bureau estimates.  

  118. people in Baltimore City/County would never have it b/c the center of power would completely shift to the Federal City’s suburbs.  Also, as a resident of DC, I do not want to be in MD b/c if I did I could just buy a house in Montgomery County.

  119. Would be to turn DC into a US Territory rather than a state and give it a status similar to Puerto Rico, Guam and the US Virgin Islands.

    This would eliminate the Federal Income tax for DC (it could be replaced with a local District income tax whose proceeds would be used in DC) and would make Washington DC municipal bonds triple tax free in all 50 states (lowering the borrowing cost for DC muni bonds).

    It would eliminate the whole “no taxation without representation” issue and keep the US Capitol a distinct and neutral site as the seat of America’s government.

    I would also amend the Constitution to change DC’s 3 electoral votes to 3 electoral votes for all US Territories.

    This would allow the US citizens of Puerto Rico, Guam & the US Virgin Islands to vote in Presidential elections.

  120. I noticed that Arizona end up rather dramatically below population expectations–like 200K below 2009 American Community Survey estimates, which on the whole was very good. Surely some of that was people leaving because of the nuked economy, but the fact that the census was going on at the height of the SB 1070 insanity had to suppress non-citizen Hispanic representation in the census in a major way. Of course it appears that a lot of people left the state because of SB 1070, but most of that would have been after April so it might be partially balanced out?

  121. Since they are liberal districts, there are other people we can primary them with (like Hansen Clarke who will be just as good as Kilpatrick but there’s no corruption surrounding him) In my opinion, The more ethical liberal members of Congress, the better we can successfully make our policy points.

    95% of the Republican caucus is useless…. and 90% of the Republicans are in districts that we can’t get a Democrat to win in.

    Generally, the more entrenched you are, the corrupt you are. (though not always)

  122. Most of DC’s metro population is already in the Maryland suburbs. Adding DC to Maryland would add an additional 600,000 people – not an insignificant number, but not overwhelming either.

    I think statehood or something close to it would by far be the best option, but if there’s no realistic prospect of that happening, I think retrocession really ought to be considered.  

  123. I hate gerrymandering. It’s unethical & unfair, and its part of whats wrong with our current legislature.

    I should add that I made a mistake … its not Hank Johnson but David Scott (another Georgia guy whom I got Johnson confused with) who I don’t like. And that has to do with tax evasion.

  124. then Corrine Brown’s suing of the FL Proposition is making it less likely we will see Democrats win.

  125. but it’s a normal thing. Until there is over arching changes through out the country, it should and must be used. I do agree that Corrine Brown’s lawsuit, if successful, would hurt the Democratic party in Florida, but she is only doing what many, many others would. I don’t agree with it by the way.  

  126. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O

    In 2008, China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission said that the policy will remain in place for at least another decade. In 2010 it was announced that the majority of the citizens first subject to the policy are no longer of reproductive age and it has been speculated that many citizens simply disregard or violate the policy in more recent years. In response, the deputy director of the Commission stated that the policy would remain unaltered until at least 2015.

  127. when I see redistricting maps putting Hyde Park in IL-07. :)

    being represented by Bobby Rush=embarrassing.

  128. Baltimore already feels like the DC suburban counties get more attention etc so much so that it is rare for a DC suburban politico to get elected statewide…a rare exception was P Glendenning for PG County as Gov.  Adding another 600k people to that area would be adding a city that is bigger than Baltimore is now.

  129. ..well, not by anywhere near enough to matter.

    I did a precinct-by-precinct analysis on recent state/national elections in the City of Baltimore for a diary I’m about to finish. In the black majority precincts in Baltimore City Steele was generally getting anywhere from 12-20% of the vote. That doesn’t sound like much but it was better than Bob Ehrlich was doing in those precincts at the same time, which in turn was better than what Generic Republican usually gets. (Which was, in turn, better than McCain got against Obama.) Steele’s worst neighborhood in the city was none of the essentially-all-black parts of town, as is normally the case for GOP hopefuls; it was relatively integrated Charles Village.  

    I took a more cursory look at the state numbers, and it looks like Steele actually didn’t really lose any votes for being black in heavily GOP areas, as he and Ehrlich racked up about the same numbers in counties that went strongly for both men.

    The big problem for Steele was he got even fewer white crossover Democrats against Ben Cardin than Republicans usually get. Steele got crushed in Montgomery County, much of which is a bit like Charles Village writ large.  

  130. is likely  in KY. Regional differences and VRA in MS will probably result in a similar looking map in that state.

    The GOP goal, however, is almost certainly to look at the current maps and move the needle to the right by several degrees.  

    We discussed TX WI NY among other states.  If the GOP can lock up seats and or make them more GOP it just makes 2012 and beyond all the harder for democrats.

    So KY looks like 4-2 for a decade while MS looks like 3-1 while MO looks like 6-2(maybe) plus WI at 5-3.  Standing pat for the GOP at 240 or so could be the goal?

  131. Those counties would be put to be better in Chandler’s district, instead of being locked in a strong Republican district.

  132. …this sort of activity does tend to lead to wave elections when tipping points get reached. It’s not hard to imagine Democrats winning back every last seat they lost in SE PA in one election if the GOP does what we all (myself included) seem to think they’ll do with the map there.  

    Of course, with regards to KY or MS or MO, things are mostly different, in that long-term trends seem to favor the GOP so they can/could afford to be more daring if they held the redistricting reins in those states.  

  133. New Mexico (5), Nevada (6), Colorado (9), and Virginia (13), he will win in 2012 by 279-259 EVs. That’s what Team Obama is looking at. All they need to do is hold down all the Kerry 2004 states plus Virginia and The Southwest to win again.

  134. I always find it amusing when people tout certain administrations at the state level, usually Republican ones, as being better for businesses and point to this employer or that employer from one industry or another locating to that state. Usually, some massive subsidy is involved. It’s particularly galling when it’s Republicans who act as market purists.

    Okay, rant over.  

  135. from everybosy’s favorite source:

    In U.S. law, an alien is “any person not a citizen or national of the United States.”[3] The U.S. Government’s use of alien dates back to 1798, when it was used in the Alien and Sedition Acts.[4]

    No doubt a terrestrial alien was a term prior to an ET one…

  136. I’ll bet you anything that the high levels of civic participation in MN saved the state a seat. Doesn’t quite seem fair.  

  137. is understated, I think, because he’s unusually popular with Republicans and Independents. It seems likely, as PPP indicates, that he’ll get the usual amount of Democratic support while not turning off either of those two groups. Plus, as you said, he has the advantage of being able to define his opponents before they define themselves. That’s a pretty significant advantage.

    Generally speaking, none of these early results, with perhaps the exception of Ben Nelson’s in Nebraska, worry me that much. What we are seeing right after a horrendous election for Democrats isn’t really great, but it’s not terrible, either. They are leading or essentially tied, even in the results that show a more Republican electorate than they might face, even when their opponents have the benefit of possibly not being tied to actually being in congress. And unless there’s a Republican implosion in 2012, none of the contests were likely to be romps anyway. The Democrats should be encouraged by these results, but still focused on bringing out every last vote. Or, as I like to say, “Harry Reid, Harry Reid, Harry Reid!”

  138. Travis County as a whole (and Austin is a huge chunk of the county) was 28% Hispanic, City of Austin 35%. Not sure whether that’s gone up in recent years.

    And since this is Texas, the electorate will probably be whiter than that.

    I’d guess that the GOP would try to get Doggett again by giving someone else another chunk of the city. Hopefully it won’t work.  

  139. About 1,040,000 people, 17% Hispanic, trivial numbers of other minorities. Put another way, 75% non-Hispanic white. With about 650,000 per district in Utah, it seems insignificant.  

  140. First of all for a guy who’s been in his current office for 16 years to be that unknown? That certainly leaves an opening, tons of new people in FL so many of the normal advantages of incumbency are muted.

    I’m very curious to see how much cash Nelson has in the bank, you can bet that Bush or Mack will have more money than you can shake a stick at (plus the stick) so Nelson likely won’t have the advantage Reid did in the first months of the General vs Angle.

    Finally, a lot of Nelson’s supposed strength is his crossover support, but while many self identified GOPers or conservatives may not despise Nelson, they aren’t likely to support hime either, at least not vs anyone more appealing than Cruela DeVille was in ’06.

    All this is not to say he can’t or won’t win, but if I’m Patty Murray I had to be hoping to see Nelson with numbers closer to Klobuchar’s than what we’ve seen from other “endangered” Dem incumbents like Stabenow, Brown, McCaskill, Tester & Webb.

  141. Bill Nelson’s campaign committee reported in September he has $2,909,074 cash-on-hand. A very respectable number, though certainly not enough to scare anyone away either. He’s raised $18,106,277 from ’05-’10 and spent $17,274,162 and has no debt.

    As way of contrast newly elected Senator Marco Rubio reported 11/22 raising $21,231,831 and spending $21,024,726 with $207,105 CoH & $938,803 in debt.

  142. I don’t think this comparison holds water, first of all Burr is completing his first term in the Senate, not his 2nd. (correction on my ealier comment about Nelson being in the Senate 16 years, he was first elected in ’00).

    Also I think Nelson can only dream that Florida in ’12 (even w/ Obama topping the ticket) will be as friendly of ground as NC was this year, and in fact Burr did look fairly vulnerable and were he up for re-election in ’06 or ’08 he might very well have shared Liddy Dole’s fate.

  143. go and check the PPP blog archives from early 2009. Tom Jensen remarked several times on how unknown Burr was.

  144. I don’t doubt your right, but I’m generally not in the habit of doing research to back up other people’s claims.

    And don’t take that as being nasty, I’m not trying to be, but before throwing out a blanket statement like that I think you should back yourself up first.

    Have some good Zs, I’m jealous…

  145. I could see Carter, McCaul, and Smith getting some more of northern and western Travis Co.  The more Hispanic southeastern portion as well as the most liberal white areas could be drawn into a district that stretches down to eastern San Antonio making it a plurality Latino district…possibly majority if it were really gerrymandered.  Of course any Dem leaning white area given to McCaul and Carter specifically could endanger then in the future.  

  146. Do they really think Lloyd Doggett will be running statewide any time soon? I think he’s getting too old, and he probably isn’t interested anyway. There probably isn’t too much more they can do, short of violating the VRA by f*cking up the San Antonio area districts, to take out Doggett. Won’t they be better off by just creating a new GOP heavy exurban Dallas seat?

  147. I was just mocking how the teabaggers keep using the term as if they were living out an episode of “V”. Considering the use of the word today, “alien” dehumanizes the real people caught in the midst of the political mud wrestling over immigration.

  148. it was pretty well-accepted in most of the political community apart from the Burr camp. if you don’t want to look it up then take my word for it. if you don’t want to take my word for it then c’est la vie.

  149. I realize that you’re a relatively new user. But the “Burr was unknown” concept became conventional wisdom here throughout this cycle.

    A quick google reveals http://blogs.cqrollcall.com/ey

    In fact, Burr’s approval numbers are worse than those of former Sen. Elizabeth Dole at this time in the 2007 election cycle, with Burr’s favorable to unfavorable ratio at 35 percent to 32 percent and Dole’s at 43 percent to 31 percent. A third of voters said they were not sure when asked their opinion of Burr.

    The “no opinion” numbers for Burr in a number of previous polls were always higher than for other prominent statewide politicians.

    (FYI, user sapelcovits currently lives in Japan, so he is up a bit late in his time zone.)

  150. Of course any Dem leaning white area given to McCaul and Carter specifically could endanger then in the future.

    If there’s anyone smart left in the TX GOP (and I know that’s a tall order), one will realize that they’ll be playing with fire by doing a “dummymander” of Central Texas. Again, I think they’ll be better off long term by just leaving Doggett alone and focusing on drawing new safe GOP seats in exurban Dallas and/or San Antonio.

  151. He raised over $24 million over the course of the campaign, while she raised over $27 million! And he still won. By over 5%! And he topped 50% of the vote!

    It’s now as much a matter of how wisely the money is spent as how much is raised.

    If Bill Nelson starts putting together a solid field operation and lining up key endorsements, he may not be as vulnerable a year from now as he might look now.

  152. West could out preform a generic Republican in Black majority precincts. So exchanging Dem white voters for Dem Black voters might not hurt him as much as it would other Republicans.

  153. Did he get fewer of those Democrats because it was 2006 and just an awful year for ANY Republican to get crossover Dem votes?  As in, did he or did he not lose that group much more than Erlich did? (Which isn’t really a fair comparison either because he was the sitting Gov. running for re-elect rather than the Lt. Gov running for an open seat).  But good info thanks.

  154. President Bill Clinton looked like a goner. Pundits then were sure he’d be a “one-termer”…

    And what ended up happening in 1996?

    Especially considering what’s been happening in Lame Duck, it may be WAY too early to write any political obituaries for President Barack Obama. And considering that, IMHO it’s FAR too early to start writing political obituaries for Senators like Bill Nelson.  

  155. Iowa makes more sense. He won IA by 9.5 last time, VA by 6.3. To win in 2012, he only needs to win the states that he won by around 9 points or more in 2008.

  156. Agree to a more European style of proportional representation, we have to make do with the system we have. (And for some reason, I have a hard time seeing Congress agree to amend The Constitution so radically like this.) And this means drawing VRA districts to ensure we don’t have an all white Congress that pretty much leaves at least 30% of the population out in the cold.

  157. Well the GOP will want to add to their numbers.  Right now they have two VRA protected districts Farenthold and Canseco that they really can’t dilute and make more GOP friendly without either offsetting them with another compact VRA district or running afoul of the law.  In addition 2 of the 4 new districts will need to be VRA districts.  So even if the other 2 are heavy GOP they are offset by the 2 new VRA districts so no net pickups for GOP. That is why I think going after Doggett the only non VRA protected DEM will be too tempting. Carving up more of Travis Co and stretching what is left down to eastern San Antonio into a VRA district could free them up to make Cancesco safer giving Cuellar more of his southern SA Hispanic areas.  If they just add 2 safe seats to each side and shore up all the GOPers in non VRA districts they only end up with 23 solid GOP districts 2 iffy holds Canseco and Farenthold and 11 solid DEM districts.  

  158. Transforming DC into a tax haven would mean that most of us who live here would no longer be able to afford to as housing prices skyrocketed as the ultrarich competed for (mostly fake) DC residences. No doubt current homeowners would make a good profit as they sold the houses they could no longer afford to pay property tax on, but they’d be moving out to Maryland or Virginia.

    Definitely a good way to destroy DC as a real city with communities, though.

  159. I’m looking back at my comments and I don’t see anything remotely resembling a draft of an obituary for Obama or Nelson.

    I do very much hold that it’s going to be a very Heavy Lift for Nelson in ’12 than it was in ’06, but isn’t that obvious?

  160. But unfortunately it happens to the language all the time.  Maybe I don’t see the term “alien” as offensive because I see it much more commonly used by all political sides in most other countries.  Only here do we seem to have a stigma with it.  Probably has to do with translation.  

    Thirteen year old boy at the beach:  “Why do they even call it surfing?  There’s no computer!”

  161. I don’t disagree with you at all, but in the case of Reid vs Angle its very important to remember that she raised that money very late ($14M in October? I don’t remember off hand) and thus couldn’t respond to Reid’s attacks in the key 6-8 weeks after the republican primary. Reid was able to define her before she could respond so by the time she had the cash to fight it was already too late.

    All that said I’m not so sure she would have done much better had she raised that $14M (or whatever) in August, first of all she was always a very flawed candidate (though so was Reid, obviously) and a definite 2nd tier candidate, but most importantly the gound work done by the unions (especially the culinary union, a major force most people have never heard of outside Vegas) was something people should be doing doctoral thesis on.

  162. Cleaver in MO5 in a mostly urban seat. Let me list the other AA  or hispanic democrats   that are in non VRA seats.  Have I missed any?  Yes Ellison in MN5.  I can’t think of anymore.

    Oh there is Allen West–Tim Scott- Nunes(CA21) -Herrera (WA3) plus Raul Labrador (ID1) who are hispanic or AA in non VRA seats.

    There are dozens of seats in CA NY MA RI CT PA IL TX OR CO NC FL that could easily elect hispanic or AA Democratic congressman.  There’s Emily’s list that promotes woman from Maine to Hawaii for open seats but  when was the last time anyone ever promoted an AA or Hispanic democrat for an open seat that was not VRA.  The seats I have in mind are like NC4 or FL19 that are heavily democratic and yet when they come open its always the same old network of folks running.  

    Now you know why I always suggest AA or hispanic congressman will always look after their own best interests because no one else is.  

  163. I know many don’t like to admit it, but if left to their own devices, a number of states (mostly south of The Mason Dixon line, but who knows with all the teabaggers run amok these days?) would have all white “representation” in Congress. That is NOT representative of the overall population, and especially not in states like Louisiana and Mississippi that have high African American populations that would probably be left in the cold if there were no VRA safeguards in place.

    Hell, even in “liberal” California, it’s taken decades to see more minority statewide electeds! I hate to say it, but institutionalized discrimination is far from “dead”.

  164. Fake DC residency wouldnt work. To qualify a person would have to live and actually work in the District for a DC based business.

    Any income earned outside of DC would be subject to Federal Taxes (that’s how it works in PR).

    Besides how big a tax haven DC would be would be entirely up to the residents of DC would would be incharge of setting their own local income tax rates.

  165. 2006 was in general an awful year for a Republican to go looking for crossover votes. Ehrlich was an incumbent and had proven to be better than your average MD Republican at getting those votes. Plus there are also a decent number of people in the state who took the attitude, esp. in 2006, that while it might be nice to have more Republicans at the state/local level to keep Dems honest…the federal party is/was strictly persona non grata.

    Areas where Steele underperformed most, far as I can tell:

    1. Montgomery County. They’re liberal. Also, fair number of Jews in MoCo, and Ben Cardin is Jewish. A GOP statewide candidate is never going to carry the county, but you have to do better than Steele did.

    2. Baltimore County. Some areas are liberal and/or have large Jewish communities. Other areas are somewhat famously reluctant to vote for black candidates.

    IIRC three legislative districts voted the opposite way on that 2006 ballot. Both Ehrlich/Cardin districts, 6 (straight east of Baltimore) and 42 (straight north of Baltimore), were in Baltimore County. Ehrlich’s U.S. House district included all of the 6th and a little of the 42nd, while Cardin’s included most of the 42nd. African-American candidates always underperform in the 6th (it was also the only Kerry-McCain district in the state) but the 42nd is harder to read. The one O’Malley/Steele district was 37A on the Eastern Shore; it has a sizable black minority but most of its white residents tend to prefer the GOP.  

  166. even 20% isn’t much.

    I haven’t seen microdata from Florida, but I’m guessing that this ridiculous looking district is drawn to maximize Republican votes. (My brother lives in Deerfield Beach in this district, as it turns out.)

    So almost anything one could plausibly add to the district is going to hurt West. Are there many predominantly white precincts in Florida liberal enough to go 80-20 or better for Democrats? (There are no college towns around there I know of. Perhaps the neighborhoods around Ft. Lauderdale with a lot of gays, but that’s all that comes to mind.)

  167. Steele campaigned as a moderate and went around apologizing for the GOP’s Southern Strategy etc in MD.  West, on the other hand, acts like Clarence Thomas and blacks hate that…

  168. There is a need for an “Emily’s list” type money group for AA and Hispanic candidates that works nationally, not just in VRA districts.

    There are a number of Asians who have been elected in non-VRA districts, and I see you did not include them in your list or points.

    Is there a current list of VRA districts?

  169. considering that David Segal, David Cicilline, Anthony Gemma, and Bill Lynch are all white, I fail to see how we had an opportunity to elect an AA/Hispanic congressman in RI and passed it up. also, seeing as how Cicilline is gay and half-Jewish, half-Italian, I’d say we did pretty well on the minority front there.

  170. yes that’s one reason the number of Black congressman was at 4 in 1960.  

    Yes RI 1 was a great place for a Black or Hispanic congressman to run as a democrat.  Mighty safe seat.

    Its a prime example of why there is such a direct relatinship between the minority population of a district and whether the congressman is a minority

  171. I don’t think that’s accurate. There are probably 150-170 districts for each side that are unlikely to held by the other party unless something unusual happens. You can argue that the last few elections aren’t the best examples because they were all wave elections, but still, I don’t see any reason to say so many districts held by Republicans are off limits for Democrats, or vice versa.  

  172. So first you said RI was a great opportunity for us to elect a black/Hispanic congressman…now you are saying that minority population is directly proportional to how easy it is to elect a black/Hispanic congressman. Seeing as how RI-01 is nowhere near minority-majority (79% white) those two things completely contradict each other.

    Also, realistically, where would a minority challenger have come from? The most heavily minority parts of Providence are in RI-02. Central Falls is way too small and a candidate from there would have trouble regardless of race. Bill Lynch probably ate up most of the Pawtucket oxygen in the race. As far as cities go that really only leaves East Providence, Woonsocket, and Newport. None of those have especially large minority populations and I dont know of any significant minority politicians from there (unless you count Senate President M. Teresa Paiva-Weed as Hispanic, I think she’s Portuguese?).  

  173. she just ran in the wrong year.

    Russ is an uninspiring back-bencher. He barely slid through the primary in 2004 based on name recognition, and performed underwhelmingly in the general. Russ getting drawn out of his district isn’t much of a loss to Democrats, from the “future statewide candidate” perspective.

  174. Lower Than Whale Shit was an appropriate name for a candidate class, though it would fit.

    biggest thing is that the actual top tier candidates, like Rep. Heller, woudn’t run against Reid no matter how vulnerable he looked. No matter which clown won that primary they were in for a world class shit storm and probably wouldn’t have looked much better than Angle by election day.

  175. Minnesota’s participation rate (% mailing back census forms) was 81%, 2nd highest in the country behind Wisconsin.  North Carolina was at 76% and Missouri 74%.  Some (but not all) of the gap could have been closed during follow-up census interviews.

  176. There’s no changing D.C.’s representational status without dealing with the 23rd.  I suppose one could try to argue legally that if D.C. were granted statehood, then the 23rd would be moot, but that’s a controversial argument that easily would lead to litigation that is best avoided up front.

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