With 4 new congressional seats, Texas of course grew. While we get to increase our congressional delegation, our legislature will stay the same. This means, that state senators will continue to have even larger constituencies and districts than members of congress.
Everyone has speculated where the new congressional districts will be, and looking at the state legislature, especially the house, you can also get a good visual of the growth.
The new population of 25,145,561 means that State Senate districts (31) should have an ideal population of 811,147 and State House districts (150) 167,637.
Which districts will need to grow and which will need to shrink?
Green colored districts (green because they grew over the past decade) are those that are currently over the ideal population and will need to lose people. White/non-colored districts are those that will need to add population.
Right now 15 State Senate districts will need to shrink and 16 will need to grow. Half and half.
| District | Population | Deviation | Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 731,108 | (80,039) | R |
| 2 | 856,525 | 45,378 | R |
| 3 | 818,359 | 7,212 | R |
| 4 | 790,149 | (20,998) | R |
| 5 | 899,155 | 88,008 | R |
| 6 | 643,019 | (168,128) | D |
| 7 | 1,015,027 | 203,880 | R |
| 8 | 940,963 | 129,816 | R |
| 9 | 807,907 | (3,240) | R |
| 10 | 834,265 | 23,118 | D |
| 11 | 838,090 | 26,943 | R |
| 12 | 1,013,641 | 202,494 | R |
| 13 | 730,086 | (81,061) | D |
| 14 | 872,176 | 61,029 | D |
| 15 | 824,336 | 13,189 | D |
| 16 | 641,007 | (170,140) | R |
| 17 | 847,887 | 36,740 | R |
| 18 | 861,831 | 50,684 | R |
| 19 | 766,044 | (45,103) | D |
| 20 | 836,938 | 25,791 | D |
| 21 | 752,602 | (58,545) | D |
| 22 | 789,412 | (21,735) | R |
| 23 | 749,622 | (61,525) | D |
| 24 | 778,148 | (32,999) | R |
| 25 | 984,664 | 173,517 | R |
| 26 | 721,704 | (89,443) | D |
| 27 | 786,946 | (24,201) | D |
| 28 | 704,340 | (106,807) | R |
| 29 | 758,901 | (52,246) | D |
| 30 | 823,594 | 12,447 | R |
| 31 | 727,1151 | (84,032) | R |
| Total: | 25,145,561 |
As the list shows, the two largest districts right now, population wise, are 7 & 12. 7 is represented by Republican Dan Patrick who is committed to solving the budget crisis with his abortion sonogram bill. 12 is represented by Republican Jane Nelson.
Patrick and Nelson each represent more people than the states of Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota, Alaska, South Dakota, Delaware, and Montana. (not combined, just each state individually)
Out of the districts that need to lose population 4 have Democratic state senators (10, 14, 15, 20), with the other 11 having Republican state senators.
Of the districts that need to add people, it’s exactly 8 Democratic districts (6, 13, 19, 21, 23, 26, 27, 29) and 8 Republican districts (1, 4, 9, 16, 22, 24, 28, 31).
| District | Population | Deviation | Party |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 146,509 | (21,128) | R |
| 2 | 149,622 | (18,015) | R |
| 3 | 145,984 | (21,653) | R |
| 4 | 181,882 | 14,245 | R |
| 5 | 159,305 | (8,332) | R |
| 6 | 170,168 | 2,531 | R |
| 7 | 161,276 | (6,361) | R |
| 8 | 149,393 | (18,244) | R |
| 9 | 145,381 | (22,256) | R |
| 10 | 184,699 | 17,062 | R |
| 11 | 151,703 | (15,934) | R |
| 12 | 149,506 | (18,131) | R |
| 13 | 156,600 | (11,037) | R |
| 14 | 182,078 | 14,441 | R |
| 15 | 222,505 | 54,868 | R |
| 16 | 203,299 | 35,662 | R |
| 17 | 166,171 | (1,466) | R |
| 18 | 150,998 | (16,639) | R |
| 19 | 139,948 | (27,689) | R |
| 20 | 228,091 | 60,454 | R |
| 21 | 137,058 | (30,579) | R |
| 22 | 126,184 | (41,453) | D |
| 23 | 144,933 | (22,704) | D |
| 24 | 181,472 | 13,835 | R |
| 25 | 141,704 | (25,933) | R |
| 26 | 180,729 | 13,092 | R |
| 27 | 225,449 | 57,812 | D |
| 28 | 263,682 | 96,045 | R |
| 29 | 208,164 | 40,527 | R |
| 30 | 147,611 | (20,026) | R |
| 31 | 165,121 | (2,516) | D |
| 32 | 157,055 | (10,582) | R |
| 33 | 148,929 | (18,708) | R |
| 34 | 143,582 | (24,055) | R |
| 35 | 151,882 | (15,755) | R |
| 36 | 201,386 | 33,749 | D |
| 37 | 142,621 | (25,016) | D |
| 38 | 182,363 | 14,726 | D |
| 39 | 172,273 | 4,636 | D |
| 40 | 215,412 | 47,775 | R |
| 41 | 185,698 | 18,061 | D |
| 42 | 171,951 | 4,314 | D |
| 43 | 148,370 | (19,267) | D |
| 44 | 194,258 | 26,621 | R |
| 45 | 205,670 | 38,033 | R |
| 46 | 172,464 | 4,827 | D |
| 47 | 198,311 | 30,674 | R |
| 48 | 161,817 | (5,820) | D |
| 49 | 141,144 | (26,493) | D |
| 50 | 191,756 | 24,119 | D |
| 51 | 158,774 | (8,863) | D |
| 52 | 219,345 | 51,708 | R |
| 53 | 145,845 | (21,792) | R |
| 54 | 196,447 | 28,810 | R |
| 55 | 176,215 | 8,578 | R |
| 56 | 155,303 | (12,334) | R |
| 57 | 144,556 | (23,081) | R |
| 58 | 169,146 | 1,509 | R |
| 59 | 149,195 | (18,442) | R |
| 60 | 148,990 | (18,647) | R |
| 61 | 176,054 | 8,417 | R |
| 62 | 154,792 | (12,845) | R |
| 63 | 218,386 | 50,749 | R |
| 64 | 219,345 | 51,708 | R |
| 65 | 224,883 | 57,246 | R |
| 66 | 160,543 | (7,094) | R |
| 67 | 145,358 | (22,279) | R |
| 68 | 135,942 | (31,695) | R |
| 69 | 140,554 | (27,083) | R |
| 70 | 300,801 | 133,164 | R |
| 71 | 146,722 | (20,915) | R |
| 72 | 139,868 | (27,769) | R |
| 73 | 187,204 | 19,567 | R |
| 74 | 143,566 | (24,071) | D |
| 75 | 219,408 | 51,771 | D |
| 76 | 132,715 | (34,922) | D |
| 77 | 132,567 | (35,070) | D |
| 78 | 168,785 | 1,148 | R |
| 79 | 147,172 | (20,465) | D |
| 80 | 149,638 | (17,999) | D |
| 81 | 159,026 | (8,611) | R |
| 82 | 163,234 | (4,403) | R |
| 83 | 173,230 | 5,593 | R |
| 84 | 157,068 | (10,569) | R |
| 85 | 143,267 | (24,370) | R |
| 86 | 154,914 | (12,723) | R |
| 87 | 152,193 | (15,444) | R |
| 88 | 141,962 | (25,675) | R |
| 89 | 253,976 | 86,339 | R |
| 90 | 141,349 | (26,288) | D |
| 91 | 164,484 | (3,153) | R |
| 92 | 154,749 | (12,888) | R |
| 93 | 179,024 | 11,387 | R |
| 94 | 143,509 | (24,128) | R |
| 95 | 155,511 | (12,126) | D |
| 96 | 231,782 | 64,145 | R |
| 97 | 168,045 | 408 | R |
| 98 | 239,343 | 71,706 | R |
| 99 | 231,238 | 63,601 | R |
| 100 | 149,033 | (18,604) | D |
| 101 | 163,601 | (4,036) | R |
| 102 | 131,327 | (36,310) | R |
| 103 | 117,346 | (50,291) | D |
| 104 | 131,900 | (35,737) | D |
| 105 | 164,238 | (3,399) | R |
| 106 | 159,716 | (7,921) | R |
| 107 | 140,457 | (27,180) | R |
| 108 | 143,531 | (24,106) | R |
| 109 | 175,255 | 7,618 | D |
| 110 | 150,703 | (16,934) | D |
| 111 | 163,374 | (4,263) | D |
| 112 | 148,911 | (18,726) | R |
| 113 | 161,303 | (6,334) | R |
| 114 | 126,576 | (41,061) | R |
| 115 | 140,868 | (26,769) | R |
| 116 | 142,944 | (24,693) | D |
| 117 | 220,360 | 52,723 | R |
| 118 | 152,809 | (14,828) | D |
| 119 | 157,106 | (10,531) | D |
| 120 | 163,187 | (4,450) | D |
| 121 | 158,873 | (8,764) | R |
| 122 | 246,846 | 79,209 | R |
| 123 | 132,442 | (35,195) | D |
| 124 | 178,044 | 10,407 | D |
| 125 | 162,162 | (5,475) | D |
| 126 | 172,274 | 4,637 | R |
| 127 | 187,102 | 19,465 | R |
| 128 | 148,817 | (18,820) | R |
| 129 | 150,798 | (16,839) | R |
| 130 | 252,386 | 84,749 | R |
| 131 | 152,889 | (14,748) | D |
| 132 | 264,426 | 96,789 | R |
| 133 | 155,296 | (12,341) | R |
| 134 | 147,146 | (20,491) | R |
| 135 | 166,937 | (700) | R |
| 136 | 146,854 | (20,783) | R |
| 137 | 137,876 | (29,761) | D |
| 138 | 136,881 | (30,756) | R |
| 139 | 150,919 | (16,718) | D |
| 140 | 139,275 | (28,362) | D |
| 141 | 184,720 | 17,083 | D |
| 142 | 154,794 | (12,843) | D |
| 143 | 127,381 | (40,256) | D |
| 144 | 169,715 | 2,078 | R |
| 145 | 132,730 | (34,907) | D |
| 146 | 143,120 | (24,517) | D |
| 147 | 146,857 | (20,780) | D |
| 148 | 140,946 | (26,691) | D |
| 149 | 169,836 | 2,199 | D |
| 150 | 212,484 | 44,847 | R |
| Total: | 25,145,561 |
The district with the largest population is 70 represented by Republican Ken Paxton.
54 House districts need to lose population, while 96 House districts need to add people.
Of the districts that need to lose population, 13 are represented by Democrats (27, 36, 38, 39, 41, 42, 46, 50, 75, 109, 124, 141, 149) and 41 are represented by Republicans.
Of the districts that need to add population, 36 are represented by Democrats (22, 23, 31, 37, 43, 48, 49, 51, 74, 76, 77, 79, 80, 90, 95, 100, 103, 104, 110, 111, 116, 118-120, 123, 125, 131, 137, 139, 140, 142, 143, 145-148) and 60 are represented by Republicans.
Of the 24 seats that Republicans picked up last November (I’m also counting the 2 turn coats), 8 districts (40, 45, 47, 52, 78, 93, 96, 117) will need to lose population and 16 districts (1, 3, 12, 21, 33-35, 57, 69, 85, 101, 102, 106, 107, 133, 134) will need to add people.
great post
I am thinking that with house democrats down to 50 that nearly all of these seats are minority majority?
But i think we must add political element to it – redistricting in Texas will be done by Republicans. And looking at statistical data i am reasonably sure that they geo enough areas to shuffle from quick-growing districts to more slow-growing to preserve (and may be – even slightly increase) their majority..
This is a great post, but there should be just a few words of caution. First, of a the deviations are less restrictive in the state lege than they are in congress. Essentially, congress has to be down to almost a single person, whereas the state lege has a much higher tolerance. I don’t recall what the percentege is though. Greg Wythe, whose blog is must read for anyone interested in Texas or Houston redistricting, would probably know.
Second, there is a county rule in the House. For large counties, such as Harris, Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar, and Travis, and maybe a few others, they take the number of districts owed to the county, round that value, and then that county gets exactly that number of districts contained within it. In fact, I think the numbers are: Harris 24 districts, Dallas 14, Tarrant 11, Bexar 10, and Travis 6. I.e., Harris loses 1, Dallas loses 2, and Tarrant gains 1. Because the number is rounded, the averages in the large counties may be a little different from the state wide average. For medium sized districts, they will give whole districts plus a fraction of a district. In fact, El Paso dropped in population, so it may go from a county that received the whole number 5 to a 4 + a fraction of a district.