Illinois is losing one congressional district this year – going from 19 to 18. I have created a map that takes the current map with a delegation of 11 Republicans and 8 Democrats to one with 12 Democratic seats and 6 Republican ones. I consider this an ambitious gerrymander favoring the Democrats, but one that is realistic and keeps a few things in mind:
1.) Michael Madigan is in charge and he will look out for his interests first. He also will never do a dummymander.
2.) The Democratic incumbents also have input and their interests will be considered. None of them will want their district lines to change much and all want their Democratic primary bases to be kept intact. They also don’t want to be thrown from safe seats to possibly competitive ones.
3.) African Americans will insist on maintaining their three black majority districts, no matter how much population they have lost in the city. The Hispanics will want at least one – two may be forced by the courts – but Madigan and his allies will likely push for one Hispanic district to maintain Lipinski’s seat. Also, we have seen in the City of Chicago that Hispanic majority seats often go to white incumbents who control the Democratic machine. Alderman Ed Burke’s 14th ward is 88% Hispanic, Madigan’s 13th ward is 72% Hispanic and just elected somebody named “Marty Quinn” to be Alderman.
4.) Madigan will go after Freshman GOP before those with more seniority. Not only are they easier targets, but having seniority on both sides of the aisle is good for Illinois.
Below is each new district with data and analysis. I have calculated the results from the 2010 Senate race (Kirk v. Giannoulias) and from the 2004 Presidential race (Bush v. Kerry – I know, old). I used the 2010 Senate race rather than the Governor’s race because it is on the Federal level, and to use data against moderate Republican. I did not calculate data from the 2008 election, because Obama’s landslide was far too big and unevenly distributed in Illinois (I feel Chicagoland was much more skewed than Downstate). The 2010 numbers are exact (to the precinct) except for Tazewell, Marion, Moultrie, and Menard Counties, which I allocated votes by ratio of population in each district. The same goes for 2004 numbers, except I had to extrapolate the precinct data for Lake and Will counties from 2010 data.
For now, here are three tables with election data, racial population data, and VAP data. I will add more analysis in the next few days.
District Kirk Alexi Bush Kerry PVI
1 24.80% 75.20% 23.00% 77.00% D+30
2 25.26% 74.74% 26.39% 73.61% D+28
3 48.14% 51.86% 44.25% 55.75% D+8
4 26.57% 73.43% 26.90% 73.10% D+28
5 47.72% 52.28% 41.53% 58.47% D+10
6 63.33% 36.67% 57.66% 42.34% R+6
7 18.61% 81.39% 15.81% 84.19% D+37
8 53.71% 46.29% 46.66% 53.34% D+4
9 47.77% 52.23% 39.12% 60.88% D+11
10 47.75% 52.25% 39.70% 60.30% D+11
11 68.75% 31.25% 60.55% 39.45% R+10
12 53.24% 46.76% 47.02% 52.98% D+4
13 49.12% 50.88% 45.12% 54.88% D+7
14 64.94% 35.06% 59.55% 40.45% R+8
15 68.33% 31.67% 59.68% 40.32% R+10
16 67.03% 32.97% 57.86% 42.14% R+8
17 56.61% 43.39% 46.84% 53.16% D+3
18 68.31% 31.69% 60.39% 39.61% R+10
ALL
District White Black Hispanic Asian
1 35.5% 52.7% 8.2% 2.0%
2 31.4% 52.8% 13.4% 0.8%
3 59.5% 6.1% 27.7% 5.4%
4 18.7% 4.1% 73.3% 2.9%
5 65.1% 2.2% 24.4% 6.7%
6 75.4% 3.7% 8.8% 10.3%
7 27.6% 54.5% 12.2% 4.1%
8 48.6% 8.7% 31.5% 9.1%
9 67.4% 7.8% 10.6% 12.0%
10 72.2% 3.4% 10.9% 11.5%
11 92.7% 3.2% 2.0% 0.8%
12 77.5% 16.6% 2.8% 1.1%
13 53.0% 12.7% 27.3% 5.0%
14 82.5% 1.6% 11.4% 3.2%
15 85.4% 6.8% 3.1% 2.9%
16 88.6% 2.6% 6.3% 1.1%
17 77.9% 12.4% 5.8% 1.5%
18 86.7% 5.4% 4.8% 1.6%
VAP
District White Black Hispanic Asian
1 38.0% 51.7% 6.9% 2.2%
2 34.5% 51.8% 11.7% 0.8%
3 64.0% 5.9% 23.5% 5.7%
4 23.2% 4.1% 68.3% 3.4%
5 69.1% 2.0% 20.9% 6.8%
6 77.7% 3.5% 7.5% 10.2%
7 31.1% 51.8% 11.0% 4.8%
8 54.1% 8.1% 26.9% 9.4%
9 69.2% 7.8% 9.3% 12.1%
10 74.7% 3.3% 9.3% 11.2%
11 93.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.8%
12 80.0% 15.3% 2.4% 1.1%
13 58.3% 12.1% 23.4% 5.0%
14 85.3% 1.4% 9.4% 3.1%
15 86.7% 6.2% 2.7% 3.2%
16 90.8% 2.4% 4.9% 1.1%
17 81.7% 10.8% 4.6% 1.5%
18 88.7% 5.1% 3.8% 1.5%
Would Adam Kinzinger survive in this district? I would assume Aaron Shock and Kinzinger are top targets.
I suspect this map isn’t as ambitious as it could be. I’ve been working on an Illinois map though I’ve had to put it aside for a few days due to an overwhelming amount of work. Anyway, I’m fairly certain that my final map will be 14-4. In short, I think that you are unnecessarily ceding a couple GOP seats in the Chicago collar counties.
That said, since my map is still a work in progress (the obvious holdup being working up partisan numbers precinct by precinct) I’m not completely sure yet that it works. However, I seriously doubt that 13-5 is not in easy reach if 14-4 seems at least within the realm of possibility.
I accidentally posted this before I entered my data and analysis. I will add that tonight.
I see partisan & racial data before I do my post on this map. I am sure my comments are highly anticipated but please rest assured I will return.
I might add thanks for posting this map. Yes this map looks bizarre but if VRA II is complied with it will stand up in court.
I realize that was not just flipping a switch. Lots of comments so here goes.
1. The VRA stuff looks okay. Its clear, however, if the purpose in Chicago was to do a second hispanic or a coalition seat (50% minority) this map does not do it. Not sure the DOJ will insist on that approach but we may see a lawsuit or two on it. I might add that AA & hispanic state legislators may not be happy with how the minority community is sliced up here. Some of that is inevitable as whining among community leaders almost seems to be a job description.
2. Thanks for posting the Kirk numbers. I might add in Il we see more underlying local GOP strength then national GOP numbers. Kirk outshinned Bush but remember too that Dold and some other local congressional candidates did as well. Seats like 3-5-8-9-10 show that suburban voters can and do swing.
Here’s my final thoughts on IL and this map
a. city versus suburban. This map like many others here connect Chicago with various suburban areas to maximize D votes. Here’s a point to ponder that at 2.7 million this map could lead to 8 congressman from Chicago. Cook suburbs with 2.4 million could have none. Lake county is carved up three ways and might not have one congressman. One can argue whether Jan S. is surburban or city based as her intial win was due, primary wise, to strong Chicago ties. I don’t see suburban legislators, D legislators, from Lake/Cook/Will basically handing their area congressional seats to Chicago. Suburban voters don’t vote like Chicago voters so he could be a dummymander plan but either way I don’t believe it will happen.
b. The same holds for rural or really outstate democrats. I don’t see Cook county or other suburban counties being attached to outstate areas. The Rockford to DuPage county plan, IMO, will not fly. It was one thing to protect Lane Evans and to have all parties agree on a plan but I don’t see say Danville legislators surrendering their county to Rock Island. I could be wrong but after the passage of the midnight tax plan I think outstate legislators are going to keep their congressional seats to themselves. Now this plan only one seat like this but generally speaking there is a huge resentment between Chicago proper and its suburbs and outstate area. I don’t see legislators giving up their territory to Chicago based seats.