MI-Sen: Stabenow in Better Shape

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/18-20, Michigan voters, Dec. 2010 in parens)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 50 (45)

Pete Hoekstra (R): 38 (44)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 48 (45)

Terri Lynn Land (R): 38 (41)

Undecided: 14 (14)

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 52

Saul Anuzis (R): 35

Undecided: 13

Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 52

Randy Hekman (R): 33

Undecided: 15

MoE: ±4.4%

Remember last week how I said that Sherrod Brown’s new BFF must be John Kasich? Well, I’ll bet Debbie Stabenow would love to take Gov. Rick Snyder out for a soda pop right about now. I can explain it all to you in one blockquote:

Party        December | March

Democrat:       35    |   41

Republican:     35    |   28

Independent:    29    |   31

Those are the party self-identification breakdowns in PPP’s newest poll versus their last poll. And guess what? The March sample is almost identical to the 2008 exit polls, which was 41 D, 29 R & 29 I. It’s simple: If our voters come back, we win. And if guys like Rick Snyder, John Kasich, and Scott Walker keep helping us, they will.

49 thoughts on “MI-Sen: Stabenow in Better Shape”

  1. This may all be transitory. But for the moment things look rosier than they did right across the board. Would be nice to see recruitment news in other races mind.

  2. In Michigan people just say pop, not soda pop. Anyway, those numbers are about what I expected given Snyder’s struggles.  

  3. In Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and other places that have elected governors who are doing wacky, (at least for now) unpopular thiongs — we need to make every Republican from the candidate for dog catcher on up a co-conspirator.

  4. …is that, should governors like Synder, Kasich, and Walker maintain these current numbers, they’ll likely be defeated in 2014, hopefully in the general.  If their Democratic successors are able to serve two terms, then they’d be serving through the 2021 redistricting cycle.

  5. Click for full size…

    Check out the strange split in WI.  No wonder there is a little civil war going on there.

  6. The numbers suggest Likely D, but, in reality, I think it’s more like Lean D. Stabenow’s lucky the GOP field kinda stinks. So long as Obama wins (though I’m anticipating a single-digit victory), she should be fine.

  7. It would be a genuine tossup and yet another tough seat for Dems to hold. So even with this just leaning Dem, it’s a huge improvement. And (crossing fingers!) if these numbers hold up and Snyder’s bloom continues to fade, Michigan may end up a likely hold for both Stabenow and Obama again.

  8. It looks like another double digit blowout for Obama. While I’m saddened and angered by the wreckage Snyder and Walker are pursuing, at least the silver lining is that the Dem base is regaining enthusiasm as Indies swing back our way.

  9. looks more broken up than the Balkans. Also, pop is stupid, it’s so annoying. No one in the south would ever call it pop. Everything is usually called coke, but sometimes people will say soda if they are worried about being misunderstood.  

  10. also, how do you order a pepsi in the south?  a pepsi coke?  coke pepsi?  the anti-coke (wouldn’t that be water or milk)?

  11. NY and PA are perfectly split, with the Buffalo, Rochester, and Pittsburgh areas going for pop and the rest preferring soda. Also, the St. Louis area is one enormous outlier in the Midwest–what’s going on there?

    I, for one, had never heard “pop” as meaning anything other than “dad” before college.

  12. Isn’t higher here in Nevada is probably because of all the Midwesterners who have moved to Vegas over the last 20 years. Otherwise, all the native Nevadans, ex-New Englanders, ex-New Yorkers, and ex-Californians just call it soda and call it a day…

    While I’m just trying to stay away from the stuff as often as I can! I’ve lost about 15 pounds since the holidays, and I’m trying hard to keep them off. 😉

  13. 100,000 people demonstrating for a month, recall campaigns, senators seeking amnesty in Illinois, death threats, protesters being removed by force, supreme court in chaos and a justice is threatening to “destroy a bitch”.

    And now a soda/pop fault line running through the state.

    Yup, I’m pretty sure its time to call a no-fly zone over Wisconsin. Damn squabbling cheeseheads!

  14. Cannot wait to get home and look at that on a bigger screen than my blackberry!  Where’s the map showing water fountain vs bubbler?  (Dumb ass Wisconsinites.)

  15. “A pepsi” would work just fine. You don’t say pepsi soda or pepsi pop in the north.

    The question is, how do you order a coke?

    Does the following conversation take place?

    – Could I have a coke?

    – What kind of coke?

    – Coke, please.

  16. The same way you order it in the northeast. You will hear this dialogue though:

    “Would you like a Coke?”


    “What kind?”

    “Dr. Pepper.”

  17. Normal Establishment

    “What’ll you have to drink?”

    “A coke.”

    get a coke

    Coke/Soda in Conversation

    “There’s a party tonight, what do we need?”

    “Get some cokes.”

    buy  a 2 liter of coke, sprite, dr. pepper, etc

    Pepsi Establishment

    “What’ll you have to drink?”

    “A coke.”

    “Is Pepsi okay?”

    Likely answer: “I’ll have a Dr. Pepper.” Less likely answer: “Sure.”

    In short, no one orders Pepsi here (Texas, Houston or D/FW). Coke dominates the southern economy. What you want, you ask for by name. It’s Coke, Diet Coke, or Dr. Pepper. The term for “Coke” as soda is due to 1) It’s what we want usually or 2) It’s a generic term when multiple soda/pops are being mixed together (as seen in my second example conversation)

  18. But this is how it’d go.  “I’d like a coke.”. “What kind?”. “Pepsi.”  I got used to the Southern accents and even accidently said a “ya’all” once, but calling a Sprite a coke was always unforgiveable to me.

  19. If it’s self-serve, you may hear “Coke” used in a generic sense, but if the restaurant serves the drinks, you’d be specific.  Granted, I’m from a part of the South that’s seen a major influx of Notherners and Midwesterners, so it may not be typical elsewhere in the South.

  20. People here definitely use “Coke” as the generic term. In restaurants that only serve Pepsi you’ll still hear people order a “Coke”. When the waiter asks them if Pepsi is okay, it’ll either be “okay” or “is Monopoly money okay?” (not always in such rude terms, of course)

  21. It’s really not that confusing. Whenever you talking about “soda” in a generic sense you just casually say coke. As in, your grandmother saying, “You can only have one coke a day.” When you’re ordering one from a restaurant you use the brand. I want a Pepsi, I want a Dr. Pepper, I want a Coke. etc

  22. Plus, there’s a favourite son effect in play! I knew Coca-Cola was invented in Georgia, and I wonder whether that might have something to do with why Georgia and the South are fairly red on here. Had to look it up, but Pepsi is from NC, so maybe that explains it’s colouring.

  23. I bet poor people in the Deep South have better teeth than poor people in what I’d call the “Northern South”, with KY and WV in particular.  Why?  Coke doesn’t sell Mountain Dew.  I remember a great Diane Sawyer special on “KY Moutain Children” and these poorer areas are loaded with Mountain Dew “addicts”.

  24. hails from Vicksburg Mississippi. I say this because I’ve been to the drug store where it was invented.  

  25. I also like Aquafina more than Dasani and Mountain Dew more than Mellow Yellow.  The only Coke product I like more than its Pepsi counterpart is Sprite over Sierra Mist.

  26. from Johnson County, Missouri (Warrensburg) who says soda. And Johnson County is like, the one soda county in western MO. So random!

  27. you often have such valuable things to say and from now on I can’t take any of your posts seriously! 😛

  28. Where I am, it’s pretty solidly “pop” and I actually say soda. I feel disenfranchised.

  29. He should win MI by double digits bc he saved the auto industry, but we’ll see how much he talks up one of his amazingly successful bailouts.

  30. sadly, I imagine we’d be outnumbered on that one. “Bubbler” is still strong in SE New England, and I’ve heard it’s also used in Oregon, and all the Cheeseheads I’ve met say it too. But I think that’s about it :(

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